Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 151159 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
559 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 559 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

12z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

An area of low pressure and Arctic front will cross the region
today. This system will bring light, accumulating snow to central
and south central SD, or where the best forcing is located. A few
CAMS, along with WPC are showing the potential for 1 to 2 inches of
snow in central SD, including the Pierre area. The 0Z NAM had higher
snowfall amounts in this area, however the 6Z run has much less.
Based on a general consensus among models, have increased snowfall
over the previous forecast. With increasing northerly winds, patchy
to areas of blowing snow will be possible with the falling snow and
accumulating snow. Removed the mention of blowing snow in the
northeastern portion of the CWA where there is little to no snow
cover and under an inch of new snow is expected.

High temperatures today will occur this morning with a decrease
through this afternoon. As winds decrease tonight and skies clear,
temperatures should fall into the single digits below zero. Colder
temps are possible over fresh snow cover.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

The models show good agreement and have been consistent during the
long term with the upper level flow pattern with a more likelihood
of decent snowfall accumulations from Sunday into Monday. The upper
level flow goes from northwest on Friday and Friday night and slowly
transitions to southwest flow aloft through Sunday night as a large
upper level low pressure trough develops over the western U.S. Could
see several inches of snow from this system for Sunday and Monday.
Otherwise, broad upper level troughing remains over the western U.S.
through the middle of the week. An initial short wave trough could
bring the first shot of light snow to our western cwa later Friday
night into Saturday morning. Temperatures will be mostly in the 20s
and lower 30s from Friday through Sunday. Although, Sunday will
likely have falling temperatures in the afternoon as Arctic air
pushes in. The Arctic air will then remain over the region through
Wednesday with highs expected to be only in the single digits and
teens from Monday through Wednesday. The additional snow cover will
enhance the cooling affect, especially at night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 559 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Light snow will push across the region through the day as an upper
level low pressure trough and surface Arctic boundary move through.
Expect IFR/MVFR ceilings and vsbys with this system. PIR could have
some moderate snow with 1 to 2 inches accumulation. Otherwise,
blustery north winds of 15 to 30 knots will bring some blowing snow
mainly to PIR and MBG. The snow will quickly end late this afternoon
with the stratus clouds moving out/clearing skies along with
decreasing winds for the night.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...Mohr



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