Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 212324 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
624 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Surface high pressure will build south across the region tonight
through Saturday resulting in warmer air returning to the region.
The surface heating cu clouds late this afternoon will be
dissipating as the sun sets this evening. With light winds and clear
skies tonight, have adjusted temperatures down a few degrees with
lows in the lower to mid 30s. There may be some more cu developing
on Saturday with surface heating along with warmer southwest winds.
May have to adjust highs up a little across the region as warmer
925h air is advected in. Otherwise, the models all show a cold front
dropping south into the region Saturday night into Sunday. With the
model disagreement on the frontal location, temperatures will be
tricky across mainly the northern cwa on Sunday afternoon with warm
southwest winds or cooler northeast winds. Nevertheless, highs are
expected to range from the mid 60s north to the mid 70s in the
southwest cwa. This boundary is expected to become active later
Sunday night as a surface low pressure area moves in from the west
bringing some lift and moisture. Thus, have in chances of showers
after midnight Sunday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

The long term portion of the forecast will feature below normal
temperatures with several rounds of showers. While models agree well
at the start of the period, they diverge by the end of next week.

The period begins with a surface low pressure crossing the region
with showers expected. Cooler temperatures will filter into the
region behind the surface low and remain in place through rest of
the long term and perhaps beyond. With below normal temps, the
growing season will be pushed back to early May. Per the 12Z model
runs of the GFS/ECMWF, the best chance for widespread showers in the
long term should occur on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures may be
cool enough for light snow Friday morning.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Other than patchy late night/early morning fog, conditions are
expected to be VFR through the period.





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