Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 261133 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
633 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 100+ KT JET STREAK
OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS WILL
RESULT IN A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA
TODAY. IN FACT...VERY WEAK RADAR RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP UN ON THE
KUNR/KBIS RADARS ALREADY THIS MORNING. PTYPE WILL LIKELY START AS
SNOW...THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND
LONG IF THEY DO OCCUR. PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.

BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ANOTHER BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
INDUCED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS WEAK...THE 290K-300K
ISENTROPIC AND 700 MB FRONTOGENETIC PLOTS SUGGEST STRONG LIFT AT
THEIR RESPECTIVE LEVELS. NO LACK OF MOISTURE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
EITHER...SO THERE SHOULD BE A PRETTY DECENT SHOT AT PRECIPITATION
AND THEREFORE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.
AGAIN...PTYPE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL START AS SNOW AND THEN TRANSITION
TO RAIN. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT STILL LOOKING LIKE
UNDER AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS.

A MORE DEFINED CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...COMBINED
WITH A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY MIXING WIND...WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...AND 70S ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD OPENS WITH
A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME RAIN SAT NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY BEFORE QUICKLY EXITING. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC THEN BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON SUN/MON BEFORE A
FLAT UPPER RIDGE AND ANOTHER SFC LOW MOVE IN ON TUESDAY. WITH
FORCING WEAK TO NONE SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EXPECT THESE
PERIODS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AND WARM.

AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND VARIOUS SHORTWAVES THEN
AFFECT THE REGION WED AND THU. NOT MUCH CONSISTENCY AT THIS TIME
RANGE SO SUPERBLEND HAS SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EVEN THOUGH
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE KEEPING MOST ENERGY NORTH AND SOUTH OF THIS
CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE BUT MODERATED
SLIGHTLY BY CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SNOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO KMBG/KPIR THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SNOW. PRECIP WILL EXIT BY 19Z BUT LOWER CIGS MAY
LINGER UNTIL ALMOST 00Z. KATY/KABR WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE DAY
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE







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