Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 121750 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1150 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1146 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 18Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 1022 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

Snow chances persist for the next few hours across portions of
central and north central South Dakota. Little in the way of
accumulating snow. Removed Wind Chill Advisory headline, as
conditions have improved enough to no longer warrant having an
advisory in effect. Updates are out.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 216 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

The current surface high stretches from northern
Alberta through southern Saskatchewan and much of ND has a ridge
extending across the entire forecast area. It will continue to
strengthen as it builds into the Dakotas through the period, topping
out at near 1048mb 06-09Z Saturday across south central ND. The cold
air will remain in place. The main concern weather wise is just to
our west. We continue to minimize the next round of light snow, and
restrict it to more of our southwestern counties today, with amounts
around an inch or less. Could possibly see a further reduction
needed later this morning depending on the evolution as the
elongated sfc low attempts to strengthen over central WY.

Will let current headlines run through this morning, without any
extensions. Northwestern counties may only go 6-8 hours without, but
will wait before re-issuing anything. Winds should be only 2-7kts
tonight into mid morning Saturday, so it may be a more low end Wind
Chill Advisory that may be needed far north.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 216 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

The vast majority of the long term will feature a highly amplified,
positive phase PNA pattern across the conus. With mid level troffing
in the central and eastern conus, we can expect a couple rounds of
arctic air. The good news is the pattern is expected to break down
about a week from now. A couple of waves of energy will provide for
chances of light snow both Saturday night and Sunday night. The
second wave on Sunday and Sunday night will usher in another cold
air mass as an arctic front/sfc high settle in across the region.
Progged 1/2km temps suggest some pretty chilly air over the region
come late weekend, and early next week. That cold air intrusion will
be accompanied by gusty winds, thus wind chills will also be taking
a tumble at that time. The rest of the long term looks basically
dry, with a warm up toward the very end of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

Light snow/flurries ending this afternoon at KMBG/KPIR. All TAFs
predominantly VFR through the period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...Dorn



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