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000
FXUS63 KABR 091736 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1136 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013

.UPDATE...
LET THE WIND ADVISORY GO THIS MORNING THOUGH WIND CHILLS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ZERO THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. REST OF
THE DAYTIME FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. WILL LIKELY NEED A
WINTER WX HEADLINE TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
TIER OF THE CWA AS A WAVE MOVES THROUGH BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.



&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
OUR CWA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND LOW PRESSURE TO
THE NORTHEAST. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH HAVE SUFFICIENTLY
ALLOWED WIND CHILL VALUES TO DROP INTO THE 20 BELOW TO 30 BELOW
ZERO CATEGORY...AND THEREFORE LET THE HEADLINE RIDE AS EXPECTED
THROUGH NOON.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...AND MODELS SHOW IT QUICKLY DROPPING
SOUTHEAST MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THIS POTENT LITTLE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK BUT
STRONG WARM AIR PUSH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS NORTHWEST TO
WESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THE
AFTERNOON. A DECENT INVERSION SETS UP AS THE MID LEVEL WARM AIR
STREAMS OVER THE REGION...AND THIS PROFILE COULD MEAN ENHANCED
WINDS IN THE LEE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
FOR THE MOST PART IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE
ONSET OF FALLING SNOW...BUT GIVEN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
FRESH SNOW ACROSS THIS AREA YESTERDAY...CONTINUED THE BLOWING SNOW
MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

FORTUNATELY /OR UNFORTUNATELY DEPENDING ON PERSPECTIVE/ MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING DURING THE PERIOD OF GREATEST COUPLING OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT...AND ALL PRECIP WILL BE
POST FRONTAL. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...BUT THE DOWNSIDE
IS THAT NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT DO INCREASE RAPIDLY. 0.5
KM WINDS OFF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS TONIGHT...SO
THE REGION COULD BE BORDERING ON WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS...AND THE FACTOR OF BLOWING SNOW...WILL
LET PROCEEDING SHIFTS NAIL DOWN THE DETAILS.

THE COLD AIR PUSH BEHIND THE CLIPPER IS SHORT LIVED AND A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY. THE TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER CONTINUES AS
ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DROP SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
THERMAL GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO AIR MASSES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIPITATION HOWEVER. AS THE ARCTIC
AIR SURGES SOUTH APPARENT TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN DROP INTO THE
WINDCHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE
AREA...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH LOOKS TO OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STRONGER WAVE...RESULTING IN
THE ONLY TIME PERIOD IN THE LONG TERM WHEN SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY
OCCUR.

WILL SEE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE SOME AS WEAK WAA DEVELOPS
ON THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S WILL BE COMMON.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES BACK IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BRINGING
HIGHS BACK DOWN TO THE TEENS...THEN ANOTHER HINT OF MODERATION
OCCURS LATE IN THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S
AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY ACROSS ALL TERMINAL
LOCATIONS. AFT 00Z TUESDAY LOOK FOR A CLIPPER TO DROP QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS IT PASSES THROUGH. THE
CLIPPER WILL ALSO BRING SOME SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE
KMBG/KATY/KABR TERMINALS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 02Z AND 08Z.
THE STRONG WINDS COUPLED WITH THE LIGHT SNOW MAY REDUCE VSBYS INTO
THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE KATY
TERMINAL. FURTHER WEST...FOR THE KPIR TERMINAL...LOOK FOR
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP AFT 01Z TUESDAY...PERSISTING
THROUGH 04Z TUESDAY. VSBY COULD FALL AT TIMES TO MVFR STATUS IN
LIGHT SNOW/BLSN.

ALL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK INTO VFR STATUS BY 12Z
TUESDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF VALID FORECAST
PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN