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000
FXUS63 KABR 301744
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1144 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE TODAY PERIOD FORECAST. LOW CLOUDS ARE
JUST ABOUT COMPLETELY REMOVED FROM THIS CWA...WITH JUST SOME
HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST AND A RETURN FLOW WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN HAS SET UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA THIS MORNING.
THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING STRATUS IN THE REGIONS OF THE LEOLA
HILLS AND SISSETON HILLS...BUT AS WINDS GAIN A SLIGHT WESTERLY
COMPONENT AND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE STRATUS WILL
MIX OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO AGAIN RISE TO SOME 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE THE LAST DAY TO DO
SO...AT LEAST IN THE NEXT 7 DAY FORECAST.

THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS DRY TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COLDER AIR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING...AND WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE
TEENS AND TWENTIES LATE SATURDAY MORNING OR EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
INFLUENCING THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MODERATE FORCING WILL COMBINE WITH A FAIRLY SHALLOW SNOW
GROWTH ZONE INITIALLY...AND THEN AS THE COLUMN COOLS AND THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE DEEPENS WE LOSE THE FORCING. SO OVERALL EXPECTING
ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS TIME IT IS LOOKING LIKE
ANYWHERE FROM A FEW TENTHS TO UP TO 2 INCHES. WINDS INCREASE AND
THE COLDEST AIR SETTLES IN BY SUNDAY MORNING. 925 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST AT -20 CELSIUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA.
WIND AND COLD TEMPS COULD RESULT IN APPARENT TEMPS DROPPING TO THE
TWENTY BELOW ZERO FAHRENHEIT CATEGORY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN SUNDAY...BRINGING ANY LINGERING
SNOWFALL TO AN END. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH A COUPLE OF DECENT SHORTWAVES SET TO AFFECT
THE REGION. ONE OF THESE WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...WITH A SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A FAIRLY STRONG HIGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS PUSHED TO THE EAST ON MONDAY BY AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA ON
MONDAY. THE LOW LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY...AND
RIGHT NOW SHOWS THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW TO BE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO
HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND AND LEAVE THE
LATE PART OF THE PERIOD DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY WHEN SOME COOLER AIR DROPS OVER THE REGION.
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE COMMON THAT DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION TODAY WILL SHIFT THE
WINDS FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...TO THE SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY
DIRECTION THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING. AN MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL ALSO SINK
SOUTHWARD AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS BY 10Z SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. BY
12Z...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST IN
RESPONSE TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING SNOW TO ALL AREAS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...OR JUST BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN