Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 021550 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1050 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SHOWERS...ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...SHOWERS ARE ONLY AFFECTING
LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE JAMES RIVER AND HIGHWAY 83. THUS HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE POPS FOR THE EASTERN CWA...AND
REDUCED POPS IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION. THAT SAID...A FEW HI-RES
MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE YET THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF I-29.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES HEADED INTO THE CWA TODAY...THE FIRST EARLY
THIS AM ALREADY RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH A
NARROW RIBBON OF 2000 J/KG MUCAPE AND 40 TO 50KTS MOSTLY STRAIGHT
LINE SHEAR...ALREADY OBSERVING WEAK ROTATION AND SPLITTING
SIGNATURES ON RADAR. LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST WHICH IS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SLOW STORM MOTION. CAMS
SUGGEST CONTINUED INCREASING COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH A
PUSH INTO THE JAMES VALLEY. LOOKS LIKE THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE A LULL BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE GIVES US A SECOND
BOUT OF CONVECTION. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
ALTHOUGH PROFILES ARE WEAKLY UNSTABLE FOR FRIDAY...A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD WILL SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL TOP THE RIDGE FOR LATE
SATURDAY...BUT TIMING MAY BE TOO LATE TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING. A SURGE IN MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF THAT WAVE WILL BRING SOME HOTTER AIR TO WEST RIVER AND THE
MISSOURI VALLEY FOR SATURDAY HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

NO NOTABLE CHANGES FORTHCOMING IN THE OUT PERIODS THIS MORNING.
PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR TO BOOKEND THE PERIOD...WITH DECENT CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT STILL SEEMS TO BE
CHARACTERIZED AS WNW FLOW...BUT DURING THE OUT PERIODS...SPLIT FLOW
IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST COAST...WITH THE TWO JET-LEVEL AIR
STREAMS CONVERGING/DOING BATTLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THIS INTRODUCES A GOODLY AMOUNT OF LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL REMAIN STABLE/CONSISTENT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

FOR THE TIME BEING...TEMPERATURE TRENDS STILL APPEAR TO BE WARM TO
START...THEN COOLING DOWN MONDAY/TUESDAY BEFORE WARMTH RETURNS BY
MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WHILE CONVECTION IS OVER/IN THE VICINITY OF THE KMBG/KPIR
TERMINALS THIS MORNING/TODAY...EXPECT VFR TO BE THE EXCEPTION
RATHER THAN THE RULE. PREVAILING VFR SHOULD BE BACK IN PLACE AT
KMBG/KPIR BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...KATY IS PRECIP FREE
AND SHOULD STAY THAT WAY UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
PRECIP CHANCES AND PREVAILING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS RAMP UP. MVFR
STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER KABR...AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL DAYTIME MIXING CAN INFLUENCE IT. ALSO...AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE LATER TODAY...SO WILL SUB-VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN



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