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000
FXUS63 KABR 100644 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
143 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATION OF THE SISSETON HILLS WHERE TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN
THE MID AND UPPER 40S. COMBINED WITH A 10 TO 15 MPH WEST
WIND...SNOW MELT SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABUNDANT ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS
WILL NOT GO COMPLETELY LIGHT TONIGHT...HOWEVER GIVEN THE ADDED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED PATCHY FOG FOR PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE BEGINNING TO SHOW A MORE
NORTHERN TREND WITH THE BAND OF 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND QPF...BUT
NOW THE MOST RECENT 12Z RUNS SEEM TO HAVE SHIFTED EVERYTHING BACK
TO THE SOUTH. THESE ARE NOT HUGE SHIFTS...BUT ENOUGH TO INDUCE
SOME FORECASTER UNCERTAINTY. EITHER WAY...MODEL 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS
VALUES EXCEED 100 UNITS...AND THE REGION WILL BE IN THE VERY
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK. OVERALL DYNAMICS
ARE VERY GOOD. MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT AS WELL...WITH PWAT VALUES
FORECAST AT NEARLY 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN. PROBABLY
THE MOST UNCERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS PTYPE. INITIALLY
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS ALL RAIN...THEN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW
SOMETIME OVERNIGHT. HOW QUICKLY THIS HAPPENS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
IMPORTANT. SNOWFALL RATES UNDER THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW COULD BE
PRETTY SIGNIFICANT...HOWEVER HOW QUICKLY ACCUMULATIONS CAN OCCUR
ON WET SURFACES IS ALSO UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW KEPT THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH OF US HWY 212 /PROBABLY EVEN SOUTH OF US HWY
14/...AND GENERALLY LOOKING AT 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THIS REGION.
CERTAINLY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER
ACCUMULATIONS TO SET UP SOMEWHERE IN THIS AREA.



.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE OVERALL MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR A POSITIVE
PNA LOOK...BUT WITH OCCASIONAL ENERGY CRASHING THROUGH THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE...AND THEN HEADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
CONCERNING THAT ENERGY...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHC FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PCPN WILL BE NEXT WEEKEND AS A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH SUCH THAT MOST PCPN DURING DAYTIME PERIODS SHOULD BE RAIN
OR RAIN/SNOW...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE AT NIGHT. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THEY SHOULD BE NEAR TO EVEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD.




&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS A POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT DUE TO
QUITE A BIT OF MELTING ON SUNDAY...BUT IT MAY BE COUNTERACTED BY
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND WINDS SPEEDS REMAINING AROUND 10 MPH.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND WILL ADD TO TAFS SHOULD IT BEGIN TO
DEVELOP.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN