Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 191725 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1225 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

See updated aviation discussion below.


UPDATE Issued at 1014 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

Again, have raised highs a couple degrees across portions of the
CWA based on quick temp rises this morning and latest guidance.
Will have to watch the eastern CWA though and see if expected
cloud cover later this afternoon will have any influence on highs.
Hi-res models continue to indicate possibility of a few sprinkles
or very light/brief showers this afternoon over the eastern CWA,
so will leave in the slight chance mention for right now. Will
continue to see gusty southerly winds today, especially along and
west of the James River. Highs will rise into the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 356 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

Not much change to the overall trends through the end of the work
week and start of the weekend. NAM bufkit continues to indicate
around a hundred j/kg low level CAPE, and CAM solutions point to the
potential for a few weak showers. Again, we are still only dealing
with a cloud depth of 4kft, which may be just enough to generate a
shower but for the most part the region will remain dry.

A 40kt low level jet sets up west river tonight, with skinny CAPE
along the length of the NAM profiles, which would support a weak
shower or two despite the CWA being under a generally unfavorable
upper level environment. That environment shifts east through the
day Friday, however we do see a 50kt 300mb jet structure develop
overhead with the CWA on the right entrance region. NAM profiles
again support skinny CAPE on the order of a few hundred j/kg, enough
to continue the mention for isolated weak convection.

The focus then shifts back west river for Friday night/Saturday AM.
The low level jet is weaker, only on the order of 30kts, with again
around 100 j/kg CAPE spread across the mid levels above the
inversion. Flow aloft becomes a little better for supporting
convection as the stacked low continues to migrate across the
Rockies.

Through the course of the short term we will also see a slow but
steady increase in 850mb temperatures on southerly flow. This fetch
also provides for a steady increase in surface dewpoints as well.
Readings overnight will be stabilized by the presence of a low level
jet, so on a whole the region will begin to feel much more summer
like.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

A sharp upper ridge over the region with southerly flow at the sfc
will draw up warm and moist air this weekend. Highs will top out in
the 70s to lower 80s through the period with warmest temps on
Sunday. As the ridge exits to the east on Sunday, shortwave energy
will eject into the plains while sfc low pressure pushes into the
plains. Some showers/tstorms may develop Saturday night on a llj,
but chances for precip will increase as the front moves through
Sunday night and Monday. Another upper low and sfc low will work
together toward the end of the extended to bring further chances for
showers and thunderstorms.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

VFR conditions will prevail across the area through the TAF
period. Southerly winds will be in the 20 to 35 knot range this
afternoon...then will diminish some overnight before increasing
back into the 15 to 30 knot range Friday morning.

&&


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Parkin



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