Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 250145 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
845 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING OUT WEST THIS EVENING
AND MOVING EAST. EXPECT THIS DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS SHOWN BY THE HRRR MODEL. IT SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ADJUSTED WEATHER AND POPS FOR THE NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

THERE ARE A NUMBER OF FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM
REGARDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN BUT THERE ARE SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT/TIMING ON THE NEW 12Z RUNS
BETWEEN THE HI-RES CAMS AND THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE ECMWF IS ALSO
FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS WHILE THE GFS ENHANCED THE
EASTERN H5 SHORTWAVE SAT EVENING AND THEREFORE KEEPS A RATHER ROBUST
QPF FIELD ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.

STUCK WITH THE HI-RES SOLUTIONS THIS EVENING WHICH GENERATE SOME
STORMS WEST RIVER BY 0Z. WHILE CAPE IS UNDERWHELMING..LESS THAN 1000
J/KG ON THE RAP...UNTIL CLOSE TO 12Z SAT SHEAR IS AROUND 45 TO 55
KTS AND CIN IS MINIMAL. THESE STORMS WILL NOT MIGRATE VERY FAR EAST
UNTIL CLOSER TO MORNING. ANY LEFT OVER CLOUDINESS MAY HAMPER INITIAL
RE-DEVELOPMENT SAT AFTERNOON AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO MOVE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. SHEAR IN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO BECOME
SEVERE.

MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE DRY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THERE IS AN
APPROACHING SFC LOW AND SOME WEAKER SHORTWAVE ENERGY SUNDAY EVENING
THAT MAY FIRE OFF A FEW STORMS BUT MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY ON
PLACEMENT WITH SOME KEEPING ANY PRECIP CHANCE OUT OF THIS CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY IN THE
WORKWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH 700 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 12 C TO 16 C
WILL KEEP A CAP ON MOST CONVECTION. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH
WILL THEN BRING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS BY MID WEEK...AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS 500 MB HEIGHTS
ARE ON THE RISE BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH FORECAST MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A COUPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS WERE DEVELOPING EARLY
THIS EVENING OUT WEST AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL SD LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...PIR AND MAYBE MBG COULD
BE AFFECTED. THE NEXT ROUND WILL COME SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD
POSSIBLY AFFECT ALL LOCATIONS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...MOHR


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