Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 152013
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
313 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

AN INTERESTING FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST...WITH PCPN TYPE/AMOUNTS
THE MAIN PROBLEM. FOR TNT DECENT LOOKING SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL BE DIGGING SOUTH AND EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. UVM PER VARIOUS OMEGA/Q VECTOR/FRONTOGENESIS/DIVERGENCE PROGS
STILL LOOKS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MY NORTHEASTERN CWA AFTER
ABOUT MIDNIGHT...LASTING UNTIL ABOUT NOON OVER THE FAR EAST. ONE
NOTED CHANGE BETWEEN THE MOST RECENT RUNS AND PAST RUNS IS THE
FASTER CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. BOTH THE GFS/NAM NOW INDICATE
LESSER CHANCES FOR FZRA VS SNOW/SLEET. THIS COULD ADD MORE TO
ACCUMULATION TOTALS VS PREVIOUS THOUGHTS/IDEAS. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THE STORM APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE DESPITE A CLOSING OFF
H7 LOW OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...SO IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR
DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE JUXTAPOSITION OF ALL ELEMENTS STILL
APPEARS TO TARGET THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH THE
WORST IMPACTS. NONETHELESS...FEEL AN ADVISORY IS JUSTIFIED OVER
MY NORTHEAST CWA GIVEN OCCURRENCE OF MIXED PCPN TYPE/ACCUMULATING
SNOW/SLEET RIGHT BEFORE THE START OF MORNING TRAVEL TO/FROM WORK
AND SCHOOL. SO AN ADVISORY WILL BE HOISTED FOR LATE TNT THROUGH
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS S/W
RIDGING BUILDS A HEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES OVERALL
WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE REBOUND POST WEDNESDAY...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AT THE ONSET
OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW WILL SKIRT ACROSS CANADA
WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MOISTURE PROFILES HAVE MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE
INITIALLY...BUT LOOK TO SATURATE QUICKLY ALONG THE FRONT.
THEREFORE THE FORECAST HOLDS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY. OTHERWISE PRETTY QUIET IN THE LONG TERM.
THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT REALLY NO MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THAT
FEATURE. MODELS DO AGREE ON AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEAK HOWEVER...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN
TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES...EVEN ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MODEL 925 MB TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE TEENS...MAYBE EVEN 20S BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CIGS/VSBYS AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY BEING AS RAIN...WITH A TRANSITION OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION...BEFORE TURNING OVER TO SNOW. FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AT THE KMBG...KABR...AND KATY TAF
STIES DURING THE TRANSITION. A HEAVY BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
SET UP FROM NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCLUDING THE KATY TAF SITE...POSSIBLY
THE KABR TAF SITE. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO IFR CATEGORIES
UNDER SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...REMAINING
GUSTY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED IN THE COLD
AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR BROWN-EDMUNDS-FAULK-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BIG
     STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






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