Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 291750 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1250 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1047 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SKY WILL REMAIN A BIT HAZY TODAY FROM FOREST FIRE SMOKE OUT WEST.
VSBY HAS NOT BEEN AFFECTED LARGELY...EXCEPT FOR 8 SM AT MBG. WILL
KEEP SMOKE MENTION OUT OF THE GRIDS UNLESS OTHER SITES BEGIN TO
SEE VSBY REDUCTIONS. OTHERWISE...CURRENT HIGH TEMP FORECAST IS ON
TRACK BUT SOME AREAS MAY FALL A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT. HAZY
SKY...MODEST DEWPOINTS AND LACK OF REAL GOOD MIXING IN SOME AREAS
MAY KEEP TEMPS DOWN JUST A TOUCH. NONETHELESS...WILL STILL SEE
WARM READINGS ACROSS THE REGION RANGING FROM THE MID 80S EAST TO
THE MID 90S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A STANDARD DEVIATION OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO BOTH
TODAY AND SUNDAY. 850MB WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHICH
WILL ALSO AID IN MIXING. 850MB WINDS INCREASING TO 50KTS OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE DROP. A
VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ALSO EXIST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN A STRONG CAP. NAM PROFILES ARE WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ABOVE 12KFT ABOVE THE VERY WARM/DRY LAYER...SO THERE MAY BE SOME
ELEVATED ACCAS TYPE SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MIGRATE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
EARLY MONDAY. PASSAGE OF FRONT WILL SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXIT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE CWA WILL THEN
BE SITUATED BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A SLOWLY APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT LOOK
TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF JUST A
BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS. ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WITH THIS FRONT ON FRIDAY...BUT A FAIRLY
WARM MID LEVEL CAP MAY BE A HINDERING FACTOR. DUE TO THIS...WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE SCHC/CHC CATEGORY...SIMILAR TO SUPERBLEND...FOR NOW.

WARM AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S AND 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

GOOD VFR CAN BE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR TAFS OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. THERE ARE PATCHES OF SMOKE OBSCURATION
AROUND...THAT ARE CAUSING SOME OBSERVING PLATFORMS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION TO REPORT 3SM TO 6SM VISBY IN SMOKE...SO DID INTRODUCE THAT
AT THE KMBG TERMINAL.

LATER TONIGHT...THE SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT SOME IFR VISBY/CIGS IN
FOG AND OR LOW STRATUS WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AROUND AND A SUBTLE SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DRAPEDNORTH-
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO INTRODUCE SOMETHING
SUB-VFR INTO...FOR STARTERS...THE KABR/KATY TAFS HERE IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN


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