Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 281726 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1226 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

OVERALL THE FORECAST WAS DOING FINE BUT NEEDED THE TYPICAL MINOR
UPDATES. BAND OF PCPN OVER MO VALLEY SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL APART
OF SHEAR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA...MOSTLY EAST OF THE
JAMES VALLEY. AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE WITH EITHER BAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES OKAY FOR NOW BUT MAY BE A TAD
HIGH GIVEN ALL THE CLOUD COVER THAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
RESPONSIBLE FOR DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. FAVORABLE JET PLACEMENT
RESULTING IN BROAD AREA OF RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW
LIGHTING STRIKES. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE CONTINUED
SLOWER...MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...AND LIGHTER QPF. SREF
PROBABILITIES ARE CLOSER TO THE QUARTER/HALF INCH RANGE THOUGH GFS
OMEGA VALUES TOPPING 20 MICROBARS SUGGEST A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS
COULD STILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF
STRIKES OF LIGHTNING. TEMPS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE WITH CLOUDS AND
RAIN. TEMPS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE UPPER 60S...AND IF WE CAN GET A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT STILL SEE
TEMPERATURES JUMP INTO THE UPPER 70S.

WEAK TROF WILL PASS OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS WELL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...HOWEVER
GFS PROFILES SUGGEST ONLY WEAK LIFT AND INTERMITTENT MOISTURE
SATURATION WILL LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO IN THE LONGER RANGE
SOLUTIONS. STILL LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF DECENT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SOMEWHERE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME WHEN A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE
WORKING THROUGH...AND THEN AGAIN BY THE END OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE DRY UNDER
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...WHILE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER
SUNRISE ON FRIDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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