Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KABR 021934
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
234 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CWA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THESE CONDITIONS LARGELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT EVEN...BUT WILL ALSO
BEGIN WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHILE THE SFC TROUGH ALSO MOVES
EAST. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS...MAINLY IN REGARDS
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING AN ACTUAL
CLOSED LOW AT THE SFC MOVING THROUGH WHILE OTHERS FEATURE MORE OF A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH. FOR NOW HAVE
POPS HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL SD TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
CHANCES INCREASING FURTHER EAST INTO WEDNESDAY. THESE MAY NEED TO BE
REFINED BASED ON ANY CHANGES IN THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF THE
EJECTING LOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK SFC LOWS AND MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL MEAN A WET AND ACTIVE EXTENDED. ON WEDNESDAY A 700
MB LOW WILL HELP TSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. BY THURSDAY LEE
SIDE TROUGHING WILL SET UP BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED
MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC EVEN AS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES THROUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE. FRIDAY HAS THE LEAST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION BUT BY SATURDAY THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW AND YET MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO HELP FORCING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.