Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 180527 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1227 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT...DUE TO
AREAS OF STRATUS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND OVERNIGHT.

CURRENTLY...WITH LOW LEVEL CAA CONTINUING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN INTO THE REGION OUT OF CANADA...BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND
OVERCAST SKIES ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES BOTTLED UP IN THE 40S AND
50S...WHICH IS A GOOD 15 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS AMID
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE
RETURN FLOW KICKS IN AND THE REGION SEES A BRIEF WARM UP SUNDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS BACK INTO MAINLY THE NORTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES. 850 MB TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...WHICH IS AROUND 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. BY THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME PERIOD A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST. AS IS TYPICAL WITH THE QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS...MODELS DO
SHOW SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND OF
PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOLDS
TRUE THROUGH ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THERE
IS SOME WEAK CAPE...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. WHILE THE TAIL OF END OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
DRY...PRETTY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DO
APPEAR BY FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

STRATUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
WITH MVFR CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR AT ABR...ATY AND POSSIBLY MBG.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME LIGHT FOG FORMING. OTHERWISE...AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PUSHES EAST INTO SATURDAY THE WINDS WILL TURN
AROUND FROM EAST NORTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE. EXPECT
THE STRATUS CLOUDS TO ADVECT NORTH/MIX OUT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...PARKIN/MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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