Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 251745 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1245 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Aviation discussion updated below for 18Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 1037 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

No reason to make any major changes to the forecast as it is on
track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

After a mostly dry day, scattered showers will return to much of the
region by late afternoon, and continue into early Tuesday despite
the cool Canadian sfc high building a ridge into the forecast area.
It will be the result of the ejecting 500mb low over WY, with the
trough extending all the way down into Mexico. Expecting most of
the precipitation to fall over eastern SD and western MN, with a few
areas picking up over 0.25in of rain tonight.

The 500mb low will move across the western ND/SD border by 09Z, with
much of the rain slowly shifting northeast of the forecast area. The
rain should be to our northeast by late morning, with dry weather
then persisting through at least Wednesday. The 500mb trough will be
slow to exit, with some remnants of the trough lingering through
Wednesday as another cut off low forms over the southwestern U.S.
High pressure should be directly overhead by 21Z Tuesday to 03Z
Wednesday. This should help bring about the coolest overnight
temperatures, with a few upper 30s possible. High temperatures will
return to near seasonal values on Wednesday, in the upper 60s to low
70s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

The long term begins with our region under northwest flow aloft with
upper level ridging along the west coast. This western ridge builds
slowly east into Saturday into our region. Before this occurs, there
will be a short wave trough that will drop southeast out of Canada
from the northwest for Thursday and Thursday night. With limited
moisture, this trough is expected to come through dry. The ridge
over our region on Saturday will then move east through Sunday. The
models all then vary some with the upper flow over our region from
Saturday night into Sunday. Overall, it looks like a strong jet will
dig into the west coast with broad upper level troughing developing
into the western and central U.S. With not much agreement on any
significant lift with this trough, left it dry through Sunday across
the CWA. Temperatures are expected to be generally slightly above
normal in the mid 60s to the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Expansive deck of MVFR CIGs will persist across the region through
the TAF forecast period. At times, KATY may sneak into IFR. KPIR
may begin to get back into VFR by late morning Tuesday, but
conditions will largely remain MVFR through the forecast period.
Another area of precipitation will move northward into the region
this evening with VSBY possibly going into MVFR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...TMT



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