Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 251933
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
233 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

TROWAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AROUND A
SHORTWAVE CIRCULATION ON THE CENTRAL SD/NEBRASKA BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE MAY PUSH AS FAR NORTH AS I-90 THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE RETREATING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST
SOUTHEAST.

A BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN TO THE REGION. LACK OF CLOUD COVER WILL MEAN THE CHANCE
FOR SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S.

BY LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. WITH A FAIRLY DECENT 25 TO 30 KT LLJ
DEVELOPING BY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW ON
WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 80S.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN AND SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. CONDITIONS MAY DRY OUT BRIEFLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE
MOISTURE SURGES THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECWMF IS FAIRLY DRY AND KEEPS
MOST OF THE PCPN SOUTH OF THIS CWA. THE GFS BRINGS THE PCPN FURTHER
NORTH...BUT SHOWS THE PCPN AFFECTING SE SOUTH DAKOTA. DRY CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN ON FRIDAY AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRINGS DOWN A FAIRLY
STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF
THIS HIGH PRESSURE...NEAR TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...ALONG WITH PRETTY COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES...BELIEVE
HIGHS ON SATURDAY COULD BE COLDER THEN THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE
ECMWF IS SHOWING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. THE HIGH WILL
DEPART TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES TO
SPREAD INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 70S FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEPART THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR KMBG...WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT...AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 8-13Z.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD


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