Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 232006
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
206 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 152 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

The main challenges for the very short range are winds/temps/rain
chc. A decent looking system will graze the cwa late tnt and Friday
morning. Moisture profiles look a bit better for Friday vs
yesterday, so expanded pops are okay. The system does move through
fairly quickly, thus most pcpn chances will be limited to Friday
morning.

The system will also usher in gusty winds, especially with the
initial pressure surge, and then later as low levels mix out to
around H85. It looks to be a low end situation, but have decided to
go along with offices to my west and north, and issue an advisory for
late Friday morning and afternoon. GFS bufr soundings indicate that
the best mix down winds will probably occur from 11am to 3pm. The
gusty winds and relatively mild temperatures will also contribute to
high or very high fire danger over most of the area Friday
afternoon.

Temperatures should remain mild despite some cooling aloft. Deep
mixing layer will allow for temps to climb back into the 50s Friday
afternoon after morning clouds depart the region.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 152 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Not much to write about with this forecast as we continue to see
mild temperatures and dry conditions as the continuing story.
Warmest readings are Sunday/Monday though the warm surge doesn`t get
going till mid day Sunday so eastern counties may miss out
initially. A front swings through Monday but with warm air initially
in place, we may benefit from the added mixing - though the warm
feelings may be negated by some wind gustiness. This may very much
be a replay of conditions we experience today/Friday. A less
impressive warm surge is noted for the second half of the work
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1117 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Vfr conditions are expected through the taf valid period at all
terminals.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory from 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ to 4 PM CST /3 PM MST/
     Friday for SDZ003>006-009-010-015>018-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...TDK


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