Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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955
FXUS63 KABR 130534 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1134 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF SHARPLY THIS EVENING AND A STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE IN AND BRING FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE P-TYPE AND PRECIP
AMOUNTS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

CURRENTLY...IT`S SUNNY EAST RIVER AND CLOUDY WEST RIVER. THE
MISSOURI RIVER SEEMS TO BE THE CLOUD/NO CLOUD DEMARCATION LINE THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN SUNNY AREAS HAVE BEEN EITHER FALLING OR
JUST HOLDING STEADY GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...BUT
FURTHER WEST WHERE IT`S CLOUDS...IT`S A BIT WARMER WITH READINGS IN
THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

WELL THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION IS ONSHORE NOW MOVING
THROUGH THE PAC NORTHWEST. THE BOTTOM LINE FROM THIS DISCUSSION
TODAY IS THAT THE SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY COMPACT/DYNAMIC FOR IT BEING
A SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM...BUT SHOULD PACK QUITE A PRECIP PUNCH AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THIS AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CROSS-SECTIONAL
ANALYSIS OF THIS SYSTEM INDICATES THE NEEDLE IS PEGGING HIGH END NOW
FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND HAS MODERATE TO STRONG FORCING TO
BOOT...SHOWING UP PRIMARILY IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE REGION AS IT
WORKS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THEN...THE WAA ZONE ON
THIS THING IS GOING TO BE SUPPORTING EITHER LIGHT SNOW OR VERY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN/MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD OF FORECAST ZONES /INCLUDING THE PIERRE AREA/ FROM
LATE TONIGHT UNTIL THE STRONGER DYNAMICS ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...WHEN P-TYPE SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HANDLE THIS MIXED BAG OF PRECIP WHERE
GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH ANYWHERE
FROM A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE IS POSSIBLE. THE
DEFORMATION ZONE SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW MOVING THROUGH...INCLUDING SOME AREAS WITH 1+ INCH/HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES. FOR NOW...THE BAR IS SET AT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF STORM
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION "WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE".
AND...WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING WHEN IT
STARTS SNOWING...THE COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY END UP CREATING SOME NEAR BLIZZARD TYPE
CONDITIONS/VISIBILITIES. TO ADDRESS THE SNOW AND VISBY CONCERNS
DECIDED TO HOIST A WINTER STORM WATCH THAT HIGHLIGHTS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN PRAIRIE COTEAU OVER INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT UNDER THIS ARCTIC COLD 1040+ HPA SURFACE HIGH
SHOULD TAKE A TUMBLE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY. BUT THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP AND HIGHER WAA CLOUDS BEGIN SPREADING OVER THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STEADY OUT OR BEGIN STEADILY RISING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN MINNESOTA. SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE. THANKFULLY TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WHICH
WILL LIMIT BLOWING SNOW ISSUES.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. WHILE MODELS LACK AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS...THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO INCREASE POPS
SOME MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER...ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER SHORT WAVE COULD
BRING ADDITIONAL PCPN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES IN THE EASTERN CWA
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXPECTATION OF A FRESH SNOW PACK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM NICELY ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY AS BOTH
THE GFS/ECWMF SUGGEST 925/850 MB TEMPS WARMING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE LOW TEENS ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. KMBG/KPIR WILL SEE A MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN WHILE
KABR AND KATY CONTEND WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. ONSET TIMING IS
VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT BUT THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ TO 9 PM CST /8 PM
     MST/ SATURDAY FOR SDZ003-009-015-016-033>036-045-048-051.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR SDZ007-008-011-019>023.

MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR MNZ046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...WISE



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