Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 012354 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
554 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL
PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. UNDER
THESE CONDITIONS...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO THE SINGLE
BELOW...TO PERHAPS THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15
BELOW TO 25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WITH
TEMPERATURES BECOMING STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING BY MONDAY MORNING.
THE BIGGEST INCREASE WILL LIKELY OCCUR WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WHERE TEMPS BY 12Z MONDAY COULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO.

A VERY WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM LACKS LLM AND LIFT SO EXPECTED ONLY LIGHT SNOW WITH
VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATING. A SECONDARY CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS
THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
HAVE BETTER LLM ALONG WITH SOME LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. IT
IS HIGHLY POSSIBLE FOR A NARROW NW/SE ORIGINATED BAND OF 1-2
INCHES SOMEWHERE OVER THE CWA. THE NAM IS THE FURTHER NORTH MODEL
AND MAINLY AFFECTS NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOW
ACCUMULATING SNOW AFFECTING NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST
TO EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE 1-2 INCH BAND.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

OVERALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD PATTERN BUT
THERE ARE QUITE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF TIMING AND
POSITIONING OF QPF.

ON WED AN UPPER TROF AND SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. DEPENDING ON JUST WHERE AND HOW
QUICKLY THIS HIGH CENTERS ITSELF WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THE I-90
CORRIDOR SEES A LITTLE SNOW OR NOT. FOR NOW KEPT SOME CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY BRING IN
SOME CLOUD COVER. COUPLED WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND -20C LOWERED TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES FROM SUPERBLEND FOR HIGHS. THE DRY SFC HIGH WILL
THEN DOMINIATE WED NIGHT. RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON THU BRINGING
WARMER TEMPERATURES. BY SAT A SHARP TEMP GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN
A WEAK LOW TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTHEAST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
ALONG THIS GRADIENT LINE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA. LESS CERTAIN IS
THE CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP WITH THE LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER IF
THERE IS ANY ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR ON SAT IT WILL CHANGE OVER TO
RAIN IN WARMER TEMPS.


&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SITS OVER THE AREA.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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