Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 222050

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
350 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

An upper level wave and surface cold front will be moving across the
CWA overnight. This system will bring a few light scattered showers
across the region, along with increasing winds by Monday morning.
CAM solutions agree fairly well in showing widely scattered activity
moving across the CWA, and remaining very light as well. Will
maintain slight chance POPs across the area. With the breezy winds
staying in place overnight, low temperatures should remain in the

Winds will become rather strong and gusty on Monday behind the
front. After examining BUFKIT soundings, guidance, and pressure
rises, have decided to hoist a wind advisory for the SD counties.
Temperatures will be cooler on Monday as well, with highs back down
into the 50s for most areas. Steep lapse rates may also lead to a
few afternoon showers for eastern areas of the CWA and have left
slight chance POPs in the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Models agree and remain consistent in the Monday night through
Sunday time period. Deep northwest to northerly flow dominates the
period as upper level high pressure remains over the western U.S.
with large low pressure troughing over the eastern U.S. Temperatures
will be cool on Tuesday with the last warmer than normal day on
Wednesday as warm air is drawn north in advance of a short wave
trough. The models still show the short wave trough dropping in from
the northwest Wednesday through Thursday across our region and then
closing off to the east Thursday night into Friday. The upper flow
keeps the Canadian air moving into the region into Sunday. Expect
60s to lower 70s on Wednesday before the much cooler air moves in.
Only 40s are expected for most of the rest of the period with Friday
being the coolest day. Model consensus is for 30s for highs on Friday
across the CWA. Otherwise, the long term does look to be mostly dry
with some light rain and possibly snow across the north and
northeast parts of the CWA as the main upper trough and surface cold
front moves through for Thursday and Friday. Areas east of the James
Valley in the higher elevations will have the best chances of
snowfall along with maybe a few tenths of inch accumulation.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF forecast period.
Strong and gusty northwest surface winds will develop Monday
morning and persist through the day. There looks to be a period of
wind shear overnight at KABR and have included that in the TAF as


SD...Wind Advisory from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
     Monday for SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051.



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