Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 272351 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
651 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

PRECIP...AND IN WHAT FORM...WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE 500MB LOW NEAR THE NE/KS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE ACROSS IA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
NEARING FROM THE SW...A RIDGE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL-
E SD AND W CENTRAL SD ON FRIDAY.

BANDS OF RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE UP TROUGH OUR AREA
THANKS TO THE SFC LOW OVER E NE. DRY AIR HAS BEEN ABLE TO SET UP
ACROSS OUR S CENTRAL SD ZONES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE NEXT
ROUND NEARING FROM NE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL KEEP HIGH
POPS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHEN THE SFC LOW
EXITS ACROSS IA...ALLOWING A RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO SINK
IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT-TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECTING LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S. WHILE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WITH THE WARMER ROAD TEMPS...CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 1IN OR LESS ON GRASSY SURFACES FAR W
AND ACROSS THE E MARSHALL COUNTY DOWN THROUGH SUMMIT.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR DIMINISHING SHOWERS N TO S THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
AGAIN ONLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME SHRA
NEARING FROM THE SW...MUCH OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE AS TEMPS
RISES INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS UNTIL MONDAY. THEN
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS DIVERGE IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH THE GFS
BRINGING IN A BRIEF RIDGE AND THEN ANOTHER TROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF
ENDS THE PATTERN OF SPLIT FLOW AND KEEPS A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.

WITH PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND TEMPS WILL BE SUPPRESSED
BELOW NORMAL. AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD AT THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AND
TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH SOME SNOW MIXED IN WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT
WITH ALL LOCATIONS BEING AFFECTED. ON THURSDAY...SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR/OCNL IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL RH REMAINS
HIGH.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...MOHR


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