Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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773
FXUS63 KABR 181127
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
627 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Continue to see isolated showers and storms across the CWA while a
larger coverage of precipitation is noted across ND closer to the
main vort max. Have been adjusting POPs the past couple hours to
account for radar trends. Actually had a mini heat burst here in
Aberdeen about an hour or so ago with an area of showers that moved
through.

For later today, will be watching fairly compact vort max /
shortwave as it drops southeast across the area. Low center moves
right across far northeast SD and west central MN. Fairly decent
coverage of showers and storms across ND right now with this system
and it`s all moving southeast. CAM solutions show decent areal
coverage across the far northeast CWA today, so have increased POPs
accordingly. There is about 1000 J/KG MLCAPE to work with, but no
shear. Mid-level lapse rates are fairly healthy. Interesting to note
that some of the parameters associated with landspouts or very weak
tornadoes are showing up on the low end. Given the nice vort moving
through and associated surface boundaries / wind shift, one cannot
completely rule this out. May mention this in the HWO.

Conditions quiet down tonight as surface high pressure quickly
passes through the area. By Saturday morning, this high is already
departing to the southeast, thus allowing for southerly winds and
much warmer air to move into the region. Still fairly good signals
for nice warming on Saturday, and will see highs in the 80s and 90s.
Fairly dry air will be moving into central SD as well, with RH
values dropping into the 20s and 30s. Does not appear to hit Red
Flag criteria though. Cool front will then drop south through the
area Saturday night, but looks to come through mostly dry. Slightly
cooler temperatures can be expected on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Will start out with zonal flow aloft, with a subtle wave embedded
within this flow moving across the region. At the surface we will
have a lee low to the west, with a stalled front across the South
Dakota/Nebraska state line, and low level easterlies. A low level
jet will set up over Nebraska/southeast South Dakota Sunday
night/early Monday morning resulting in elevated convection. There
is a second shortwave embedded within zonal flow aloft, and the
current timing brings its influence into the area Monday night.
Models again show the stalled front becoming the focus for
convection, though without the low level jet influence this time.
Tuesday - during the day - aloft we see a shift to a northwest flow
regime and dry conditions as surface high pressure moves from Canada
- into the Western Lakes region - and continues southeast through
the end of the work week.

Temperatures should trend right around average for this time of
year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Generally VFR for all terminals. We could see some convection
enter into the KABR/KATY areas, but confidence is too low to
include in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Connelly



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