000
FXUS63 KABR 291128 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
628 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

See updated aviation discussion below.

&&


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Shortwave/left exit region moving into western South Dakota this
morning responsible for some light rain along a narrow arc in
western South Dakota. Guidance shows this upper feature moving
across the northern tier of the CWA later today, providing upper
level support for precipitation, however NAM BUFKIT profiles show
that the low levels are still dominated by the airmass from weak
high pressure, and there is a dry layer below 6-8kft. CAPE above
this layer is skinny, so storms will generally be weak and
elevated. This 500mb wave departs this evening, however another
wave in northwest flow will pivot around the upper low to the
north for Friday. Western and central counties will see increasing
influence from high pressure moving in from the west, however in
the east while profiles are drying out there is still some
weak/skinny CAPE in NAM BUFKIT profiles to support 20-30 POPs.
High pressure follows to close out the period.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

The extended period begins will upper level northwest flow over the
region ahead of an approaching ridge. The ridge becomes centered
over the plains by Monday morning, then gets dampened some on
Tuesday before a stronger ridge begins building over the Rockies,
allowing northwest flow to set up for the remainder of the period.

At the surface, high pressure will be exiting the region to the east
Saturday night. A weak boundary sets up from west to east across the
state during the overnight hours, and may be the focus for shower
and thunderstorm development across the southern CWA Sunday and
Monday. The boundary gets pushed south Monday night as another high
pressure system drops in from the north, resulting in dry conditions
Monday night and Tuesday. Broad weak low pressure sets up late in
the period, with another chance for precipitation on Wednesday.

Near to above normal temperatures will be the rule through the
period, with highs mainly in the 80s. Parts of the western CWA may
exceed 90 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows will be
mainly in the mid 50s to lower 60s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

An area of MVFR cigs and vsbys in fog will affect the far
northeastern CWA early this morning. Scattered showers, and a few
weak thunderstorms, are possible across the area today into this
evening. No severe weather is anticipated, and for the most part,
VFR conditions will prevail today and tonight.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Parkin