000
FXUS63 KABR 081734 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1134 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

A STRATUS DECK HAS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION...NOW COVERING A GOOD
MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN HOW QUICKLY THE STRATUS WILL MOVE EASTWARD OR IF THERE
WILL BE ANY EROSION OF THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS CERTAINLY WILL NOT AID MUCH IN THE MIXING
PROCESS...SO OVERALL TOOK THE PESSIMISTIC APPROACH. IF THIS THEORY
HOLDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE QUITE AS QUICKLY AS
EXPECTED...SO DID DROP HIGHS JUST A FEW DEGREES FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

A WEALTH OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS
MORNING THAT MODELS ARE NOT REALLY PICKING UP ON. SATELLITE TRENDS
INDICATE IT WILL AFFECT THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT NOT REAL
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE AND OVERALL TIMING OF THEM. HAVE
TRENDED FORECAST CLOUDIER FOR THE MORNING BUT STILL EXPECT CLOUDS
TO MOVE OFF BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS...ALTHOUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD GET TO
FEEL THE WARMTH. THE EAST WILL HAVE TO WAIT ONE MORE DAY AS THEY
WILL STILL BE FIGHTING THE OVERALL COOLER AIR MASS FROM THE
SURFACE HIGH. INTERESTING TO NOTE ABOUT TODAYS HIGHS IS THAT THE
00Z EC IS A BIT WARMER AT 925MB ACROSS CENTRAL SD TODAY SO HIGHS
COULD POTENTIALLY BE A BIT HIGHER THAN WHATS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
FOR TONIGHT IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE A DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT
ACROSS THE COTEAU AS 40 KNOT WINDS AT 925MB DEVELOP OUT OF THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST.

SUNDAY SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY MILD DAY WITH IMPRESSIVE WARMING AT
925MB AND FAVORABLE WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS. BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES BASED ON THERMAL PROFILES AND GUIDANCE NUMBERS. THE
SOUTHWEST CWA SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 60S AND COULD EVEN SEE 50
DEGREES IN ABERDEEN. MONDAY ALSO MILD...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER AT
925MB SO WILL TAKE A FEW DEGREES OFF HIGHS COMPARED TO WHAT WE SEE
ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL AND CONTINUE TO SHOW ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. WE HAVE TO FIRST GET
BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW MAINLY WEST AND SOUTH IN THE CWA. WILL HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO DETERMINE ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
OTHERWISE...THE MODELS SHOW OUR REGION REMAINING IN THE MILD
PACIFIC AIR SECTOR OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHILE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...EC AND GFS GUIDANCE WERE
CLOSE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY BREEZES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN