000
FXUS63 KABR 121741 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1241 PM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. THE BIGGEST
CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE SKY COVER FOR THE EASTERN CWA WHERE LOW
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG ON. BECAUSE OF THE LOW TEMPS...TEMPS HAVE
NOT WARMED AS PLANNED...THUS HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. THE
WESTERN CWA IS SEEING SUNNY SKIES WITH DECENT MIXING WINDS.
CURRENT OBS ARE WARMER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. THUS HAVE INCREASED
HIGHS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER A FEW DEGREES.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS NORTHEAST COUNTIES THIS
MORNING...A MIX OF DENDRITES AND SNOW PELLETS. COVERAGE IS
LIMITED...SO WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE ONLY 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...UPPER RIDGE TAKES
CHARGE AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE. H925 TEMPERATURES WARM
PAST +8C TODAY WITH A FAVORABLE MIXING DIRECTION...THOUGH THERE
WILL BE A DROP OFF EAST OF THE SISSETON HILLS AS COLD AIR
RETREATS. MILD AIR CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY...WITH H85
TEMPERATURES PEAKING ABOUT A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE CLIMO.
NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT FAVORABLE MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD
OVERNIGHT. H85 TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND 0 TO -5C
FRIDAY...HOWEVER FAVORABLE MIXING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE FOR FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
THE LONG TERM MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON WITH DIVERGENCE
IN THEIR SOLUTIONS LATER ON. THE MODELS SHOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN CANADA WITH RIDGING NOSING INTO THE EASTERN
CWA. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CANADA AND RIDGING INTO OUR CWA
WILL BUILD EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO SUNDAY. THUS...SATURDAY AND
FOR SUNDAY IN THE EAST LOOK TO BE THE ONLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE DAYS IN THE LONG TERM WITH MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA WILL SLIDE DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES FOR SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SPREAD IN SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW INTO THE CWA. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
BUILDING EAST ON SUNDAY...WAA CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. THEN THE MODELS
DIVERGE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA.
BY TUESDAY...THE EC SHOWED A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN KANSAS
WHILE THE GFS HAD THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AT THIS TIME...HAVE IN MORE CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE EC. HIGHS WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO HOLD TOGETHER OVER EASTERN SD AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A FEW HOLES
ON THE WESTERN EDGE THAT MAY AFFECT KABR BUT LEFT PREDOMINANT
MVFR CIGS IN THE TAF UNTIL 19Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME BREEZY/WINDY AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT PIR AND MBG AS THE MIXING
LAYER DEEPENS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DROP OFF THIS
EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN