000
FXUS63 KABR 240546 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1246 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT POPS...MAINLY TO DELAY ONSET
A COUPLE OF HOURS UNTIL THE LLJ BEGINS TO REALLY KICK IN.
OTHERWISE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK AND NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE NEEDED.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...WITH THE FLOW THEN BECOMING MORE ZONAL OVER
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING...THEN
GETS PUSHED EAST BY AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. DECENT MOISTURE
WILL RIDE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WITH THE MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...POSSIBLY LINGERING
ACROSS THE EAST INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL JET
ASSISTANCE WILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST. THEREFORE...DO NOT THINK
THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER OUR CWA. A
VERY STRONG CAP...H7 TEMPS AROUND +16...WILL BE IN PLACE ON
THURSDAY AND SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FACING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF FORECAST
REVOLVES AROUND MINOR PCPN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND TEMPS
THROUGHOUT ENTIRE PERIOD.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON STARTING OFF THE EXTENDED WITH A
CLOSED 500HPA LOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NORTH OF NORTH
DAKOTA. MODELS TRY TO WRAP AROUND SOME 850HPA-700HPA MOISTURE
SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW...BUT MAIN LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES ARE MORE WESTERLY...ADVECTING OFF OF DRY HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING LOCATED WEST OF THE CWA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDS FOR THE MOST PART. REMOVED VAST
MAJORITY OF PCPN IN THE FCST FOR SATURDAY...LEAVING A FEW SPOTS
FOR COORD SAKE. AS THIS UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST...THERE COULD BE
A FEW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR NERN PARTS OF THE CWA ON
SUNDAY...AND HAVE LEFT THOSE INHERITED POPS IN.

THINGS REMAIN COOL /FOR THE END OF JULY/ FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS CAA CONTS OVER THE CWA
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME STRATOCU THAT DEVELOP
DURING PEAK HEATING WITH THE COOLISH TEMPS ALOFT..BUT AGAIN FOR
THE MOST PART MOSUNNY SKIES SHOULD SUFFICE.

THE CAA BECOMES MORE NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT WAA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...HEIGHTS AT 500HPA AND 700HPA BECOMING MORE STABILIZED
WITH BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE. SFC TEMPS BEGIN A SLOW CLIMB TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES BEGINNING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL.


&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE VALID TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL SITES AFTER 11Z IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST. AN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF MONTANA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA
AFTER 9Z. KEPT ANY MENTION OF VCTS OUT OF THE TAFS SINCE THERE IS
STILL LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN ANY SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE/DORN
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...HINTZ
AVIATION...WISE/DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN