Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 240448
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1148 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

The cold front that moved through last night has stalled southeast
of the forecast area. This boundary is expected to shift back to the
north this evening as a short wave moves in from the west. These two
features should encourage some shower and thunderstorm activity
overnight but most of the activity will remain along and south of
the interstate.

Tuesday looks a lot more interesting as a low pressure system
deepens over eastern Colorado during the day and lifts northeast
into the evening. Much of the day will be spent priming the
atmosphere for severe thunderstorms later in the afternoon and early
evening. Southeast flow ahead of the low will draw in rich moisture,
with dew points in the 50s and 60s across the area. Daytime highs in
the upper 70s and 80s will lead to steep low level lapse rates that
will be supported by plenty of instability at the mid levels...with
a nice thick pocket of CAPE in the hail growth zone. Bulk shear will
also be sufficient to support large hail with enough in the low
levels to consider the threat for a tornado or two. Initiation
should be west of the forecast area but storms will eventually
transition into this favorable environment with a focus for
convection expected along the warm front as it lifts north into
Nebraska.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Active weather tuesday night. A warm front will be dradped near
the Nebr/Kansas border early Tuesday evening. With 0-6km shear of
35-40kts, and mucapes of 2000-3500 j/kg, strong to severe storms
are possible. The potential for very large hail, especially south
of a line from Alliance to Ainsworth. Heavy rainfall will also be
possible as an mcs looks favorable to develop and move east
overnight. areas in central and northeast Cherry county, and
western Keya Paha county will be susceptible to runoff and
possible flash flooding. This is due to very heavy rainfall
amounts of 2 to 6 inches which occurred Sunday evening.

Wednesday through Monday will remain active as shortwave
disturbances continue to be ejected northeast across the region.
meanwhile, a longwave trough will persist across the west coast,
as energy dives southeast from the Gulf of Alaska.

High temperatures Wednesday in the upper 70s and lower 80s slowly
drop into the lower 70s by Friday before rebounding back into the
upper 70s by the weekend and next Monday. Low temperatures remain
fairly steady in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Over the next 18 hours, expect partly cloudy skies at both the
KLBF and KVTN terminals. Some scattered clouds AON 25000 FT AGL
are expected. Look for clouds to increase by late afternoon at
both terminals with 10000 FT AGL CIGS developing after 23Z
Tuesday. The threat for thunderstorms will begin to increase after
23Z Tuesday at the KVTN terminal and after 01Z Wednesday at the
KLBF terminal. Some strong to severe storms are possible after mid
evening Tuesday. SFC wind gusts to 45 KTS and small hail is
possible with VISBYS as low as 3 SM in moderate to heavy rain.
Since some timing issues exist as to when the strongest storms
will impact the terminals, a PROB30 group will be utilized late
Tuesday evening at both terminals.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Flood Warnings continue for the North Platte River and the Platte
River at Brady. Little change in the river levels is expected for
much of the week as reservoir releases hold steady. A minor wave is
causing the South Platte River gages to see a little additional
rises over the next couple of days, however all sites remain below
flood stage, but at action stage on the South Platte River. Multiple
days of convection could eventually add up if the rain falls into
the wrong basins, so far, most of the heavy rain has fallen well
outside of the Platte basin.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Allen
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Buttler
HYDROLOGY...Allen



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