Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 291116 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
616 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WINDS AT 850 MB TO 750 MB ARE SOUTH ACROSS THE
CNTL HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING AND A DISTURBANCE IS DROPPING SOUTH
VERY QUICKLY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. STORMS ARE UNDERWAY FROM
SPEARFISH SD TO CHEYENNE WY AND THE HRRR...RAP...ARW...NMM AND NAM
CARRY THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE PANHANDLE AND SWRN NEB FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS MORNING.

SATELLITE TIMING TOOLS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE NORTH OF THE BLACK
HILLS WOULD CLEAR SWRN NEB 13Z-14Z THIS MORNING. THE ARW AND NMM
MODELS SUGGEST A SMALL DISTURBANCE ON SATELLITE ACROSS SERN
SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING COULD SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
THIS AFTN ACROSS NCNTL NEB. THIS FEATURE IS UNDER REVIEW GIVEN THE
LIMITED RADAR COVERAGE ACROSS ND AND THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOWN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE NAM SHOWS SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING TONIGHT BELOW 750 MB ACROSS
SWRN NEB AND THIS COULD PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT...SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
CNTL HIGH PLAINS ALONG HWY 385 AIMED AT THE BLACK HILLS WHICH COULD
CAUSE STORMS TO FIRE ON THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTN.

THE MODEL PREDICTABILITY OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION WOULD APPEAR LOW
GIVEN THAT THE RAP AND NAM SHOW NO ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. THUS FORECAST RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT ARE
UNCERTAIN.

OTHERWISE...MIXING HEIGHTS RISE TO 700 MB TODAY ALLOWING FOR A BUMP
IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD WITH
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. DEW POINTS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 SHOULD
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR ONE MORE RADIATION NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND A
TROUGH TO THE EAST CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LEAVES
THE CWA IN PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AS THEY
TRAVERSE TROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE
CWA ON TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH H85 TEMPS
ABOVE 30C IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER
FOR HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE MAV NOW NEARING 100 FOR PARTS
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CIRRUS SHIELD
SPREADING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE AOA 500MB
ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. STILL TRENDED HIGHS UP A
DEGREE OR TWO...BUT KEPT A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH GIVEN POTENTIAL
CLOUD COVER.

A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES ALOFT. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
BEHIND FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT ANY ACTIVITY
WILL BE HIGHLY ELEVATED DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS SO GUSTY WINDS WOULD
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
JUST EAST OF THE CWA WHERE THE LLJ WILL BE FOCUSED AND BETTER
MOISTURE RESIDES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL RANGE FOR THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORM CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TO END THE
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE
SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...PERHAPS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN NEB ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61.
A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS IS UNDERWAY ATTM AND A SECOND
MAY BE POSITIONED ACROSS MT THIS MORNING WHICH AFFECT THE WEST
THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CDC






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