Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 190159

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
859 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

...Updated Aviation Section...

Issued at 346 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Cold front has pushed into northwest Nebraska already. Ahead of the
front compressional heating pushed temps into mid and upper 90s, and
even 100 at VTN. A prefrontal trough across western Nebraska has
been the focus for some scattered showers. Also some showers have
popped up behind the cold front.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Main focus is the passage of the strong cold front tonight and to a
lesser extent the prefrontal trough. Models in good agreement with
the front continuing to push southeast. Severe threat is marginal as
0 to 6 km shear is strong at 40 to 45 kts however CAPE is generally
2000 j/kg or less with the exception of right along the boundary.
This is expected to limit the severe potential at least initially,
however outflow boundaries may result in some localized CAPE which
could be utilized for some severe potential this evening.

Behind the front cooler air settles across the region however models
continue to show some instability along with qpf. Initially thought
generally showers with only a few strikes would be expected, however
cold air aloft could be enough for more widespread thunder and
forecast is showers and thunderstorms. Highs tomorrow will be
noticeably cooler with forecast following close mos guidance in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Mid and long term solutions in fair agreement with some timing
issues. Will use blend for the forecast. Post frontal
precipitation continues Friday night as upper level wave moves
across western Nebraska. Have some chance pops with the post
frontal activity. Lows in the 40s and 50s as surface high pressure
builds in. Highs only in the 70s on Saturday with mostly sunny
skies and northerly flow. Much cooler Saturday night as surface
high pressure over head. Light winds and clear skies will allow
insolation to radiate out with lows only in the 40s over the
forecast area. Sunday on the backside of the surface high
southerly flow...clear skies and temperatures rising into the 80s.
Monday as the next system moves out of western provinces of Canada
into the Pacific Northwest ridge through the northern plains
responds and temperatures rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s.
Upper closed low moves along the south central Canadian border
with height falls into the northern plains through mid week and
chances of precip along the surface trough axis each afternoon and
evening. Temperatures cooling a couple of degrees each day with
the height falls. Highs falling to around 80 on Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 817 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

KLNX radar depicts numerous rain showers and isolated-scattered
thunderstorms just behind the surface cold front. The surface cold
front currently lies near Paxton-Halsey-Stuart. The front is
expected to reach North Platte shortly before 10 PM CDT, and it`s
expected to exit the forecast area between 11 PM and Midnight CDT.
The threat for isolated strong to severe storms remains this
evening. Behind the front, gusty northerly winds 20 to 30 mph are
occurring. Winds are expected to diminish between 10 to 20 mph
after midnight.

Increased chances for showers and thunderstorms will spread to
the southeast half of the forecast area beginning after midnight
CDT. By tomorrow, likely showers and thunderstorms are expected
across much of western and north central NE. Concerned with
lowering ceilings overnight to MVFR or worse associated with
showers/thunderstorms. Current thinking is low-end VFR/MVFR
ceilings are expected to prevail across portions of the forecast
area after midnight. Guidance have been having trouble with
timing and general consistency, but low-end VFR/MVFR ceilings are
expected to impact the KLBF and KVTN terminals in the morning.


Issued at 346 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Near critical to critical fire weather conditions early this evening
ahead of a strong cold front. Compressional heating ahead of the
front has caused deep mixing with temperatures soaring into the
upper 90s. Southerly winds ahead of the front gusting at times to 20
to 25 mph. This combination has produced local RH values in the 15
to 20 percent range. The elevated fire weather conditions will be
limited to this evening as behind the cold front will be
considerably cooler temperatures and chances for precipitation.


.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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