Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 261849
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1249 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

AT 09Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NERN MT INTO ERN
NEBR...CNTRL KS AND CNTRL OK. SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS RESULTING IN FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
RANGING FROM 0 AT ONL TO 15 AT OGA AND 16 AT IML WHERE OVERCAST
SKIES PERSIST. THERE REMAINS A FEW FLURRIES IN PARTS OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...EVEN THE FLURRIES ARE BECOMING LESS COMMON.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE PRIOR FORECAST CURVE AND AS
LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED ALREADY BY LATE
MORNING...THINKING ADDITIONAL WARMING POTENTIAL TODAY MAY BE
LIMITED. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARMING SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY...BUT EVEN WITH THE GOOD MIXING...DON/T THINK
IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO RISE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES THE NEEDED 5-10
DEGREES TO REACH THE PRIOR FORECAST HIGHS. SO HAVE DROPPED HIGHS
BY A FEW DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WITH A FEW 20S OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. IN ADDITION...LIGHT SNOW WAS BEING REPORTED AT KSNY AND
WITH SOME OMEGA BEING INDICTATED INTO THE PANHANDLE WHERE THERE
WAS A BIT OF A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING.
DON/T THINK ANY SNOW WOULD AMOUNT TO MUCH...BUT DID ADD FLURRIES
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE EFFECTS OF COLD
AIRMASS ON TEMPERATURES AND AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT.

FOR TODAY...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA AND IOWA. ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...H85 TEMPS
WILL MODERATE TO NEAR -21C AT ONL TO ABOUT -12C AT OGA AND IML.
FORECAST HIGHS TODAY FROM 13 AT ONL TO 20 AT LBF AND OGA AND 21 AT
IML. THESE HIGHS ARE FROM 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WENT  NEAR
THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY
NEAR AND EAST OF A GORDON THROUGH NORTH PLATTE LINE TODAY...TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FAR SWRN TIER OF COUNTIES.

FOR TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
ABOUT THE SWRN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING NORTH PLATTE AND
ARTHUR WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES NEAR 7 BELOW ARE FORECAST NEAR AND EAST OF VALENTINE
THROUGH BROKEN BOW. THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRESENCE OF
SERLY WINDS 5-10 MPH SHOULD KEEP LOWS UP FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE SERN
PNHDL INTO SWRN NEBR. WENT ABOVE BOTH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE NORTHEAST...MAINLY
DICTATED BY THE LACK OF SNOW COVER ALL AREAS AND THE INFLUENCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...VERY LIGHT WINDS AND COLD AIRMASS EAST. HAVE
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FAR SOUTHWEST INCLUDING
WESTERN DEUEL AND WESTERN CHASE COUNTY AS H7 AND H5 TROUGHS KICK
EAST TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES REMAIN FRIDAY AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW RECYCLES
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS BACK NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. A MID LEVEL WARM
FRONT WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN COLORADO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
THE FRONT...SPREADING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF
RAISING LOWS A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND REMAINING BRISK THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES NORTH INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES/PV ANOMALIES WILL TOP THE RIDGE AND DIVE
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS ENERGY WILL CARVE OUT A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTED JET STREAM WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. OVERALL THE TROUGH IS RATHER DISORGANIZED...WITH
TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES HELPING TO DIG THE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...THE
TROUGH SENDS SEVERAL STRONGER JET SEGMENTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PLAINS INSTEAD OF EMERGING ALL AT ONCE. AS THESE JET SEGMENTS MOVE
THROUGH...LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED FOR A TIME...AND THEN WANE UNTIL
THE NEXT SURGE. THE MODELS DO SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
TONIGHT...AND FOCUS THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION/SNOW ACROSS
KANSAS AND COLORADO. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS MEAN
QPF...WHICH CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE I-70 CORRIDOR AREA OF KANSAS.
OVERALL THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN THESE AREAS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SNOW CHANCES
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEBRASKA...WITH THE HIGHER
CHANCES NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. AT THIS TIME THINKING 2 TO 4
INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...MAYBE AN INCH OR SO IN THE I-80
CORRIDOR...AND LESS THAN AN INCH FARTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS EVENT
IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...AND ANY SHIFT TO THE NORTH COULD MEAN
MORE SNOW FOR OUR AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
TRENDS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...ARCTIC AIR WILL NEVER FULLY SCOUR OUT OF
THE AREA THOUGH THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL
MODIFY SOMEWHAT HOWEVER...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 30S. BY THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
IS CONTINUED TO BE ADVERTISED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TONIGHT OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND
DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA AT 27.12Z. AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS...WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BUT WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD STAY VFR AS THE LOW
LEVELS STAY DRY. DO EXPECT THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO BEGIN TO MIX BY
LATE MORNING SO COULD SEE INCREASING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
WEST OF A LINE FROM KVTN TO KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS







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