Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 130953

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
353 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 351 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Minimal sensible weather concerns the next 24 hours. Weather
highlights include highs largely 15-20 degrees warmer than yesterday
across much of the area and then mild lows tonight. NtMicro RGB
satellite imagery shows low clouds over the central and eastern
Panhandle, mid-level clouds largely over northeast NEB, and high
clouds streaming from southeast WY into southwest SD. Light south-
southeast winds prevail presently with broad surface high affecting
much of the eastern and central CONUS with a central pressure of
about 1045 mb located in the far Lower Great Lakes. Latest radar
display shows a few returns across the far northeast portion of the
local forecast area, however, web cams and obs confirm nothing
reaching the ground.

Low-level warm advection early today will give way to neutral to
weak cold air advection later on. Further, mixing will be limited
per BUFKIT soundings along with an inversion to contend with aloft.
As such, while highs will rebound today, highs will remain a couple
to several degrees below seasonable normal values. Otherwise, mostly
sunny-sunny skies are expected to prevail today after mid morning.
Light breezes will persist overnight, highest over the Sandhills,
and this will contribute to mild lows Wednesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 351 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

One more mild day is in store for north central Nebraska on
Wednesday. Current model guidance is showing 850 mb temperatures to
rise into the 8 to 12 degree C range allowing surface temperatures
to rise into the low 50s by Wednesday afternoon.

A weak cold front will drop south across the central Plains on
Thursday. Little is expected in the way of precipitation with the
main impact of the front being a drop in temperatures. Highs return
to the 30s and low 40s on Thursday. High pressure will quickly build
south out of southern Canada on Thursday night. This high will drag
in continued colder air to the region as highs will only rise into
30s across the forecast area on Friday.

High pressure, and resulting dry conditions, will continue to
influence the central Plains through Sunday but will slowly drift
southeastward. As the high drifts to the southeast, slightly warmer
temperatures will be allowed to filter into the area. Expect highs
over the weekend to return to the 40s across the entire north
central Nebraska area. A series of disturbances are then forecasted
to impact much of the central Plains for the beginning of next week.
Will keep precipitation type as all snow for the most part with the
best location to see accumulations being across the north.
Accumulation amounts are uncertain at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

Expect mostly cloudy skies overnight with mid to high level
cloudiness expected across western and north central Nebraska.
Some IFR CIGS were present west of KOGA at fcst issuance time.
With easterly winds expected to persist into the overnight, this
area of low clouds is expected to remain west of the KLBF
terminal, even with a wind shift to southeasterly overnight. On
Tuesday, look for clouds to scatter out by afternoon with few to
scattered at 20000 to 25000 FT AGL.




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