Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41

000
FXUS63 KLBF 230849
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
349 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

AT 08Z...A LEESIDE TROUGH OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM SERN
MT THROUGH ERN WY AND ERN CO. A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NEBRASKA IS
KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. HIGH
CLOUDINESS MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTHEASTERN NEVADA WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING BY EARLY THIS EVENING. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH H85 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AS
HIGH AS 25C ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE AND SWRN NEBR. A SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE LIGHTEST WINDS UP TO
10-15 MPH IN THE EASTERN PNHDL AND 20 TO 30 MPH EAST OF ANW THROUGH
BBW. HIGHS TODAY REMAIN NEAR PREVIOUS FCST HIGHS FROM 82-86 ACROSS
THE WEST AND 80-82 ACROSS THE EAST. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDINESS TODAY...ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
AN H3 JET MAX OF 70-90KTS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN WY AND
COLORADO.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW CENTER WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING
AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES NORTHEAST FROM CO THROUGH
WESTERN NEBRASKA. 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO RANGE FROM 30-40 KTS
WEST OF A CODY THROUGH NORTH PLATTE LINE THIS EVENING WITH A BROAD
AXIS OF INSTABILITY FROM 1000-2000 J/KG IN WRN NEBR. THERE REMAINS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED STRONG STORMS TO CONTAIN MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAINLY FROM 9 PM THROUGH 2 AM CDT.
HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF FA MAINLY TO AROUND 30
PERCENT THIS EVENING THROUGH A FEW HOURS PAST MIDNIGHT THEN TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE AND ENDING BY 12Z. MODELS SUGGEST COVERAGE WILL BE
SCATTERED AT BEST. YET ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S
EAST TO THE MID 40S FAR WESTERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

12Z SUNDAY AND BEYOND.  UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE PREDOMINATELY IN
STORE FOR THE EXTENDED AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION.  A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY ON SUNDAY...BUT SLOWLY WORK EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS AN UPPER LOW LIFTS EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA.  LOW POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED THE LOW/FRONT...BUT
QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.  AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHERN
IOWA...SOME WRAP AROUND QPF IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
LASTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT AGAIN ONLY LIGHT QPF
WOULD BE ANTICIPATED.  DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A
FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF IN THE QPF...WITH THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND
POINTS SOUTH MAINLY DRY ON SUNDAY.  CAA BEHIND THE PAC FRONT WILL
PUSH H85 TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES...WHICH WILL LEAD TO COOLER
HIGHS.  THE FORECAST CALLS FOR LOWER 60S ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES...BUT MID 70S HOLD FOR THE SOUTH AND ESPECIALLY THE EAST WITH
A ANTICIPATED SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT.  THUNDER IS A
POSSIBILITY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS SOUNDINGS REVEAL WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT ANY STORM SHOULD BE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND MORE OR
LESS WEAK.

A TRANSITORY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS ON MONDAY
LEADING TO SUBSIDENCE AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW...LEAD WAVE AND
EASTERLY UPSLOPE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL PROVIDE FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS AND POPS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TAKE
ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND SLOWS THE SYSTEM AS THE LOW REACHES THE TRI-
STATE REGION.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY...WITH RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  AT THIS POINT WILL GENERALLY BROAD
BRUSH THE PTYPES BASED OFF OF INSTABILITY AND TEMPERATURES...BUT
NOTE THAT A SLIGHT NORTHWARD WOBBLE IN THE TRACK OF THE SFC CYCLONE
WOULD POTENTIALLY PUT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN A RISK OF
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY.  AT THIS POINT MODERATE RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH
COULD BE A CONCERN WITH SOME AREA RIVERS ALREADY ELEVATED.

SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THURSDAY WOULD LEAD TO
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...BUT THE NEXT UPPER LOW PASSING
THROUGH SW FLOW LOOKS TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES BEYOND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE BELOW AVERAGE BY
SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
 &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH 21Z SATURDAY AFTN.
THEREAFTER ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG
HIGHWAY 61 WITH A STORM MOTION NEAR 245/20KTS.

SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS AND DRAW MOISTURE NORTH INTO NEBRASKA. STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING MAY TRIGGER TSTM DEVELOPEMENT LATE IN THE AFTN NEAR
HIGHWAY 61.

THE GENERAL FCST CONSENSUS HOWEVER SUGGESTS STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL WAIT UNTIL EARLY EVENING AND THE ATM WILL REMAIN CAPPED
DURING THE AFTN. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE
SATURDAY EVENING GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.