Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 250447
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1147 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Band of weak convection that has remained across north central into
northwest NE continues to further weaken as evidenced by warming
cloud tops and lessening radar echoes. Enough dry air that most of
the precipitation on the radar was not hitting the ground anyway,
and no precip associated with the area will be included this evening.

As upper trough and associated height falls continue to move toward
the Great Lakes region, height rises will overspread the northern
Plains. However, with the northerly flow located across the northern
Rockies and adjacent northern High Plains, the next PV anomaly will
move into WY late tonight and into Thursday. Confluent flow in the
mid levels paired with low level upslope flow across western NE and
southern WY will develop clouds and some precipitation in those
areas. Mesoscale frontogenesis will ensue across southeast WY into
the NE panhandle and hence some light precip has been included there
Thursday afternoon. This will also drive a surface front southward
through the northern Plains and upper midwest in the next 24 hours
and reinforce the relatively cold air across the area.

Precipitation chances are only slight Thursday at best since in this
northerly flow the best low level moisture will remain east of
the area. Therefore precipitation chances will be best closest to
the area of forcing, as described earlier, and not as good where
dry air will inhibit precip development. Temps will be a few
degrees cooler Thursday, especially in portions of north central
NE.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

A longwave upper trough will extend across Montana into northeastern
Nevada Thursday night. Ahead of this trough, a shortwave disturbance
will track into central Wyoming through central Colorado. This will
bring an increase in isentropic upglide to western Nebraska beginning
late Thursday night and persist into Friday.

Regarding coverage and QPF amounts, the GFS is greatest, followed
by the NAM, then the ECMWF. Pops were lowered slightly for Friday
evening, due to the NAM and ECMWF developing a new area of
thunderstorms from southeast Nebraska and eastern Kansas into
Iowa and northern Missouri.

The northern stream trough is not as amplified as was previously
on Saturday. This will result in the potential for a dry day. Due
to the NAm model generating some light QPFs, a slight chance
remains in the forecast.

Conditions will return to near normal in the low 80s Saturday,
then slightly above normal in the mid and upper 80s Sunday
through Wednesday of next week as ridging aloft builds northward
across the region. Mid and upper level subtropical monsoonal
moisture will be present, with a chance for a isolated showers or
thunder, mainly across the southeast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Over the next 24 hours abundant high cloudiness will stream into
western and north central Nebraska. Ceilings ranging from 10000 to
25000 FT AGL are expected over the next 24 hours. Coverage will
be mainly scattered at the KLBF terminal and broken at the KVTN
terminal.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Stoppkotte
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Buttler



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