Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 141117 AAB
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
617 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 541 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

DOR cams show dense fog between Brady and North Platte. This
includes interstate 80 and highway 30 where visibility will fall
below 1/4 mile in spots. A dense fog advisory is in place for
Lincoln County.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Sfc low pressure across the Nrn high plains moves east into the
Dakotas this afternoon. This should present west and southwest winds
at the 850-700mb levels across Nrn Neb. A blend of the HRRR and RAP
models produces mid to upper 90s across Nrn Neb. THis is a couple
degrees warmer than the guidance blend. Mixing should reach to 700mb
with temperatures at that level around 11C. The HRRR experimental
model was the warmest with highs close to 100F.

The upper level disturbance across MT this morning moves east
affecting Wrn SD this afternoon and tonight. Another disturbance
moves off the Cntl Rockies affecting KS. The rain forecast for Wrn
and Ncntl Neb is dry.

Lows tonight are a blend of guidance plus bias correction for lows
in the upper 50s to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

The main forecast challenges over the long term are above normal
temperatures due to a ridge aloft and precipitation chances due to a
stalled surface front in the northern Plains. The upper level ridge
axis bisects Nebraska on Sunday, which coincides with a surface high
pressure over the Ohio Valley. Heading into early next week, the
ridge deamplifies as a series of surface lows move along the
boundary.

Saturday and Sunday... A notable WAA scheme sets up as an H85 high
over the lower Missouri Valley places the forecast area in
predominantly southerly flow. MEX guidance shows H85 temps rising to
around 28C for most of the region by Sunday. Bumped max temps up 1-
2F over previous forecast to account for full sunshine and a deep
mixed layer. With abnormally dry antecedent conditions and no
precip expected, forecast temps may still be too low.

Monday... The surface low develops over the Dakotas, dragging a
front into far northern Neb. Sunshine for most of the day, along
with the decent southerly flow, will help temps rise well into the
90s again. Precip chances increase near the Pine Ridge toward 00z
with daytime heating, terrain and boundary induced forcing, and
weak moisture advection. TSRA expands east across the northern
Sandhills overnight with the help of a stout LLJ.

Tuesday through Thursday... The front meanders along the NE/SD
border, allowing continued hot temps SW Neb and storms in the
Sandhills. Moisture is sufficient for at least iso T during the
afternoon and evening, while the LLJ nose across northern Neb
enhances convergence after sunset. Confidence is relatively low
for max temps and precip placement during this period, mainly due
to uncertainty in where the front sets up and possible convection
in SoDak causing outflows and/or extensive cloud cover in Neb.
Nevertheless, strong or briefly severe storms are possible, as
CAPE is sufficient and lapse rates are steep. The limiting factor
will be deep layer shear.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

LIFR in fog continues until 13z. VFR is expected all areas from
14z this morning through 12z Saturday morning. Sfc low pressure
across the Nrn plains will translate into cntl SD by 12z Saturday.
This should set up stronger winds at h850mb preventing fog
development tonight. The 06z NAM suggests VFR conditions tonight
across Swrn Neb and keeps fog development east of KLBF. There is a
chance fog could redevelop farther west however.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for NEZ059.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Snively
AVIATION...CDC



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