Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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741
FXUS63 KLBF 210901
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
301 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

The RAP and HRRR models plus bias correction were the basis for the
temperature forecast today. These were the coolest models and
appropriate for the 1033 mb arctic high forecast to slice through
the Missouri basin today. Sub-freezing are expected on the ern half
of the high traversing ncntl Neb. Note these models are run hourly
and have been trending temperatures down since midnight.

Blended guidance plus bias correction was the basis for lows in the
teens and 20s tonight. The arctic high will move into the srn
plains, low pressure will reform on the nrn high plains and this
should set up a warming trend for Wednesday. H850mb temperatures
above zero C should be in place by Wednesday morning.

The snow forecast this morning is based on the RAP and HRRR models
also. Low level moisture pooling ahead and behind the arctic front,
FGEN, deformation and a disturbance moving southeast out MT should be
sufficient for a relatively brief period of light snow across Nrn
Neb. The forcing diminishes by 10 am CST and the snow should end.
Temperatures are not optimal for snow growth. All models indicate
clearing skies thereafter by afternoon lasting through Tuesday
night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Little in the way of changes have been made from the going forecast
for the extended period. Dry weather will persist from Wednesday
through the weekend as high pressure remains over the central US.
Temperatures stay mild through this timeframe as well. Expect
temperatures to be in the 60s through Friday. A weak cold front will
move across the region on Friday night which will result in
temperatures dropping back into the 50s for Saturday and Sunday. At
this time, no precipitation is expected with this front. However,
will be watching this over the next couple days. Another shot at
precipitation comes early Sunday as a weak shortwave moves
southeastward across the central Plains. At this time, precipitation
really doesn`t even warrant a mention in the forecast. Will continue
to watch this system as well over the coming week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1115 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

Latest satellite imagery shows a combination of high cirrus and
mid clouds from 10-12k feet agl moving into western Nebraska. VFR
conditions currently prevail with northwest winds from 5 to 15
kts. A cold front advances across the area overnight with winds
becoming northerly. Late tonight ceilings will lower across
western Nebraska becoming low-end VFR (less than 7 kft) at some
terminals. Otherwise, low end chances for light rain, changing to
light snow beginning 06z and lasting until 12z Tuesday morning
across northern Nebraska. This includes the KVTN terminal.
Clearing skies Tuesday, with winds near 34014g21kt in the morning,
diminishing in the afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Roberg



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