Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 160908
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
408 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

At 08z...A surface trough of low pressure extended from far eastern
North Dakota through central South Dakota, central Nebraska into
western Kansas. Skies in western Nebraska were partly to mostly
cloudy from high cloudiness. Surface winds were light and variable.
Temperatures in western Nebraska mainly ranged from the mid 50s to
low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Today...An upper level low will be centered across western Ontario
Canada as west northwest flow aloft exists across the Central
Plains. A trough of surface low pressure near highway 83 late morning
will move slowly east this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be
favorable to develop near and east of Ainsworth through Broken Bow
after 3 pm CDT. Surface based capes at time of initiation to range
from 500-1500 J/kg with 0-6km shear rather strong at near 50 kts.
Although coverage should remain isolated, any storms which develop
could quickly become strong or even severe. Any storms which develop
are forecast to move east and exit Wheeler and eastern Holt county by
7 pm CDT.  Highs today mainly in the upper 80s to lower 90s, except
near 95 in Chase, Hayes and Frontier County.

Tonight...A cold front will enter the northwest zones late. A
disturbance from southwest Montana into northwest Wyoming early this
evening will move east and bring a slight chance for showers and
isolated thunderstorms to north central Nebraska after midnight.
Model consensus is to the best chance to be across northern Sheridan
and northwest Cherry county where 30 pops are forecast. Pops remain
low across north central Nebraska due to model difference with
chances for measurable precipitation low. Skies will become mostly
cloudy, especially the north central with lows from the mid 50s far
northwest, and upper 50s to lower 60s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

A cold front will dive south through the area Saturday in the wake
of a northern plains shortwave tracking toward the Great Lakes.
Models continue to indicate some threat for scattered showers and
thunderstorms as this front moves through. Fast west flow aloft,
combined with lift and moisture near and just behind the front, will
be enough to maintain at least slight to low chance pops. Increased
northwest winds some Saturday as well as decent mixing should allow
stronger winds noted at H850mb to mix to the surface. Gusts
approaching 30 mph are possible, especially in western Nebraska.

Upper level ridging will begin to expand across the desert southwest
early next week. As a result warm temperatures will spread northeast
into the central plains, with highs into the 90s by Tuesday and
Wednesday. Models now hinting that some low level moisture, dew
points in the 50s to near 60, will return from the south Tuesday
through Thursday. This will help develop some surface based cape,
and with fast west to northwest flow aloft providing ample shear, at
least a slight chance for thunderstorms seems warranted.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1101 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

Latest satellite imagery shows high clouds streaming eastward
across western NEB. Latest surface plot shows predominantly light
and variable winds. VFR conditions currently prevail and are
expected to continue through the TAF period.

Westerly winds will prevail tomorrow. Winds will increase during
the morning and then remain breezy through the afternoon. Dry
conditions are expected for much of the local forecast area,
except for chances of showers and thunderstorms along and east
of Highway 183 in the afternoon. Ceilings are expected to remain
high-end VFR (greater than 7 kft).

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Minor flooding will continue along the North Platte River at
Lewellen through at least Saturday morning. The river stage at
Lewellen is forecast to fall below flood stage by Saturday
afternoon. Upstream, Lisco remains just above above action stage and
is forecast to fall below action stage today. The flooding is a
result of heavy rainfall across the western Nebraska Panhandle and
eastern Wyoming Monday, combined with seasonal releases from
upstream reservoirs in Wyoming.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...ET
HYDROLOGY...Roberg



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