Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KLBF 241836
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1236 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

HIGHS HAVE BEEN BUMPED AGAIN AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE
ABOVE FORECASTED VALUES. LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WOULD SUGGEST LITTLE ADDITIONAL
WARMING...HOWEVER CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1010 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

UPDATED FORECAST FOR HIGHS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN TO MIX AND
WARM QUICKER THAN PREDICTED SO HAVE BUMPED MAX HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES GENERALLY OVER THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

NEAR TERM SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT...GFS SOLUTION SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN NAM SOLUTION AND HAVE USED A BLEND FOR PRECIPITATION
FORECAST. WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEAST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR
TODAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SOME FOR SNOW COVER WITH MUCH
OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND
FROM OGALLALA TO CURTIS. TONIGHT FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING OR MIXED PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT OVER THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS BUT NOT A REAL
CLEAR SIGNAL AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. CURRENT
INDICATIONS OF AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA FROM SPRINGVIEW TO BURWELL AND NORTH. THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA TO SEE MAINLY A DUSTING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

12Z WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.  SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  UPGLIDE TARGETING THE 280-295K LAYER
IS ENHANCED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHERE THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THE STRONGEST FGEN SUPPORT AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.
SNOW WILL BE MEASURABLE...BUT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 1 INCH RANGE AS QPF AMOUNTS
ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR A TENTH OF AN INCH.  THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SHOW AN ADDITIONAL UPGLIDE AREA SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OFF TO OUR WEST.  THE GREATEST FGEN
IS TIED CLOSE TO THE FRONT RANGE...THUS ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES.  SO ALL IN ALL...THE GREATEST
CHANCES OF SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL BE
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ZONES AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE...WITH OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA SEEING LESS THAN A FEW TENTHS AT MOST.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL HELP FORCE A BAROCLINIC ZONE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY....BRINGING A STARK COOLDOWN TO THE
REGION.  HIGHS WILL BE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  H85
TEMPERATURES ARE SHOWN TO FALL IN THE MINUS 15 TO MINUS 20 RANGE
ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  LOWS BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...IF NOT SUB-ZERO.
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH ACCUMULATION OCCURS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...GOING LOWS IN THE MINUS 5 RANGE MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH.
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT SHOT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH.  SOLID MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FORECAST IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WHEN FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS/DPVA IS IN
PLACE.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT WOULD FAVOR SNOW.  FOR
NOW WILL KEEP WHAT THE CR-INIT PRODUCED...WHICH BASICALLY SUGGESTS
40 PERCENT POPS OR LESS OVER MUCH OF THE FA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THE BROAD-BRUSH APPROACH IS REASONABLE GIVE MODEL SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO INVADE NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTH IN THE EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO THE
NORTH AGAIN MID MORNING WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT. AS
THE FRONT COMES ACROSS THE AREA THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
AFTER 12Z. ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY
TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE FORECAST AREA. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE
TIMING...AS PRECIPITATION MOVES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
MORNING...ACROSS THE SOUTH PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 18Z TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH HEAVY SNOW IS NOT ANTICIPATED WHERE
SNOW DOES FALL VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ON SNOWFALL RATES...ANY MODERATE SNOW WOULD CAUSE VISIBILITIES
LESS THAN 4SM. AFTER 14Z AT KVTN AND AFTER 16Z KLBF IFR
CONDITIONS MAY EXIST DUE TO SNOW AND LOWERED CEILINGS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GOMEZ
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...GOMEZ







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.