Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 240851
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
351 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

AT 08Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR PHILLIP SOUTH DAKOTA
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA
AND EASTERN COLORADO. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH IN THE
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS WERE GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS. EXITING
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WERE VERY ISOLATED IN WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
MAINLY EXITED BETWEEN AINSWORTH AND ONEILL. TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY
MILD IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE EAST WITH LOWER 50S IN THE
WESTERN SANDHILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

TODAY/EARLY THIS EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH A DISTINCT CLEAR SLOT IN THE
WYOMING/COLORADO/NEBRASKA REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN OR BECOME MOSTLY
SUNNY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS MOVING BACK INTO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. THE UPPER
LOW CENTER WILL MOVE NEAR NWRN CHERRY COUNTY BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST TODAY TO 20 TO
30 MPH. COOLER AIR PUSHING INTO WRN NEBR WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S
NORTHWEST TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT CHC FOR SHOWERS ERN
PANHANDLE BY LATE THIS MORNING AS THE REMAINDER OF FA REMAINS DRY. BY
THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER...CHC/SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES EAST TO NEAR VALENTINE THROUGH OGALLALA. TO THE
EAST...INVOF THE SURFACE TROUGH...INCREASED INSTABILITY INDICATED
ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN NEBR. MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF NCTRL NEBR AND CNTRL NEBR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SURFACE BASED STORMS LOOK TO BE
FOCUSED JUST EAST OF FA...SO NO STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT...AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...A 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS NRN NEBR. A WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH WILL KEEP AREA FAIRLY MIXED OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

BEGINNING 12Z MONDAY.  THE LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
SOLUTION WHERE UNSETTLED AND COOL CONDITIONS RULE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.  A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
EJECT A SERIES OF WAVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES ONTO THE PLAINS.  THE
MODELS ARE NOT TOO OVERLY BULLISH WITH THE PROSPECTS OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS REGION /OUTSIDE OF TUESDAY/...BUT PERIODS OF
ISO THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE.  WHAT IS BECOMING MORE CERTAIN IS THE
PROBABILITY OF ANOTHER DOSE OF MODERATE RAINFALL...WHICH WOULD ADD
TO THE ALREADY IMPRESSIVE APRIL RAIN TOTALS.

MONDAY APPEARS DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW AMPLITUDE
TRANSITORY RIDGE BRIEFLY PASSES OVER THE PLAINS.  HOWEVER BY EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISO THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST AS A STRONG WAVE DROPS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND BEGINS
TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT.  THETA-E ADVECTION AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A LLJ IS SHOWN TO MAINTAIN THE SHOWERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL SPREAD OUT OVER THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING FURTHER.  THE SFC LOW
WILL DEEPEN TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...LEAVING THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH AS WELL WHERE THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE CONVECTION
LIES. BUT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INCREASING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY FOR THE SANDHILLS REGION WITH CAPE VALUES PEAKING IN THE
MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS.  WILL NEED TO MONITOR STORMS SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS THEY RAPIDLY ADVANCE NORTH...STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH HEAVY RAIN...HAIL AND GUSTY WIND THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...LEAVING LIKELY CHANCES OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDER FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.  SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE INSTABILITY AXIS SHIFTS WELL EAST OF THE CWA.  THE
MODELS WRAP SOME COLD AIR DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE NORTHWARD
ADVANCING UPPER LOW.  A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NW NEBRASKA EARLY WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR A MIX TO THE I80 CORRIDOR ACROSS SW NEB THURSDAY
MORNING.  IF SNOW OR A MIX OCCURS...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST.

THURSDAY IS ANOTHER TRANSITION DAY AS A BRIEF TRANSITORY RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT ONLY TO BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY THE
NEXT WAVE.  RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS OUR NORTH AND EAST EARLY
THURSDAY AS THE FIRST WAVE IS SLOW TO EXIT...AND THEN BY LATE
AFTERNOON...PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPPER ENERGY/WAVE.  AS IT/S
PREDECESSOR...THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF A LOW AND
TAKES A NEGATIVE TILT...AT THE LEAST RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM TAKES ITS SWEET TIME TO
HEAD EAST.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE PRESENCE
OF CLOUDS...PRECIP AND PERIODS OF CAA...THUS THE FORECAST CALLS FOR
NEAR AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

SCT SHWRS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHWEST
NEB THIS EVENING...AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTM ACTIVITY
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...WITH SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST 10 KTS AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...TAYLOR



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