Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 232156
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
356 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE WIND WILL KEEP THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WELL
MIXED...AND EXPECT A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SOME SNOW COVER AND A BIT LIGHTER WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER...MAINLY IN THE
TEENS...ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RESULTANT SURFACE LOW TRACKING
INTO THE SAME AREA. TO THE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW IN OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST TO SOUTHWEST...ADVECTING ADDITIONAL
MILD PACIFIC AIR. SHOULD SEE MOST AREAS REACH INTO THE 40S FOR
HIGHS. DO EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

AS THE SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE 280-290K LAYER IS EXPECTED
OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA 09-18Z. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW. THE SWATH OF UNCERTAINTY IS ABOUT 70NM WIDE MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND ITS
LOCATION. BLENDING THE SOLUTIONS WITH A 60 PERCENT WEIGHT ON THE
CURRENT FORECAST STILL GIVES A PROBABILITY OF 50 PERCENT OR HIGHER
WEDNESDAY 06-18Z IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A PRECIPITATION
AMOUNT OF 0.15-0.20 INCH. BECAUSE THE LIFT AND SATURATION IS IN THE
-6C TO -20C  AMBIENT TEMPERATURE LAYER (ACCORDING TO THE GFS) AND 0C
TO -20C (ACCORDING TO THE NAM)...SNOW IS THE PRECIPITATION FORM WE
WOULD EXPECT. WITH SUCH A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE AMONG THE MODELS IN
VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES...ACCURATE ESTIMATE OF THE SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIO IS DIFFICULT. THEY COULD RANGE FROM 10:1 TO 15:1
WHICH...USING THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE BLEND...WOULD COME
TO 1.5 INCH TO 3.0 INCHES IN KEYA PAHA...ROCK...BOYD AND HOLT
COUNTIES WITH AN INCH OR LESS IN THE REST OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS
WILL BE BOYD AND HOLT COUNTIES. BECAUSE OF MORNING TRAVEL AND SCHOOL
BUS ROUTES...THAT TIMING WOULD HAVE SOME IMPACT EVEN THOUGH THE
AMOUNTS WOULD BE GENERALLY LESS THAN THREE INCHES. THEREFORE...
THOUGH HEADLINES WOULD NOT BE APPROPRIATE...A MENTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WOULD BE. AFTER THE LOW MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE TRAILING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
BRINGING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. AFTER THE FRONT
BECOMES STATIONARY ON THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPE OF THE ROCKIES...THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE THIS WEEKEND AS
A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHWEST NEAR FOUR CORNERS AND MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF
THAT LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING A
MOISTURE TRAJECTORY FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IN WESTERN
NEBRASKA WITH A RESULTING INCREASE IN THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE VERTICAL PROFILES WOULD FAVOR SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCT LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...INCLUDING KLBF...LATE THIS MORNING. THIS IS
NOT ANTICIPATED TO BECOME BKN OR OVC...THUS NOT RESULTING IN ANY
AVIATION RESTRICTIONS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL SWITCH
AROUND TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...MARTIN






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