Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 162044
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
344 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

PERSISTENT SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION. THIS
PLACES THE HIGH PLAINS IN GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A LOW WAS
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWING A
DISTINCT SPIN. UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS LEAD TO AN MCS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ACROSS WESTERN NEB...COOL AIR ALOFT AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES HAD LEAD TO SOME INSTABILITY AND A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN S
DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEB HAS ALSO LEAD TO SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE WEST HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO PUSH INTO
THE LOWER 90S...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS N CENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...OVERNIGHT
FOG...AND TOMORROW CONVECTION.

AS TEMPS ACROSS WESTERN NEB HAVE SOARED TO THE LOWER 90S...THE COOL
AIR ALOFT HAS CREATED ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A COUPLE OF STRAY
THUNDERSHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE PANHANDLE. INSTABILITY SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH A COUPLE OF PULSE STORMS
POSSIBLE. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AND THE ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS TEMPS BEGIN TO FALL. MEANWHILE A TROUGH ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEB IS STARTING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER THIS IS EAST OF THE
CWA...AND EXPECT THIS TO REMAIN THE CASE...SO N CENTRAL IS DRY
OVERNIGHT.

TOWARDS MORNING WITH DEW PTS STILL IN THE 60S AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...RH SHOULD REACH 100 PERCENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
CWA. LIKE LAST NIGHT...PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FOR A FEW HOURS LOOKS
LIKELY. WILL INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
LOCALLY DENSE FOG. NOT ANTICIPATING ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

TOMORROW THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PUSH ONTO THE CANADIAN
PLAINS. A TROUGH WILL TRAIL ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...MOVING EAST. AS
THE AFTERNOON HEAT INCREASES...THE CAP WILL WEAKEN. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WESTERN NEBRASKA. CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 3K J/KG WILL
HAVE AROUND 30 KTS OF SHEAR TO PRODUCE STRONG AND POSSIBLY SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY COMES AGAINST THE THETA-E RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND THE SANDHILLS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING. THEY COULD
CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH INSTABILITY CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD...STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE BOUNDARY THEN BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE
NEBRASKA-KANSAS BORDER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

RETURN FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TUESDAY. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL HELP DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE STORMS WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA TUESDAY EVENING. WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY
(CAPE) 1500-2500J/KG AND 30-40KT BULK SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM LAYER...ITS
IS POSSIBLE THAT A SEVERE STORM COULD DEVELOP. THE ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE AIR COOLS FROM THE RAIN. VERY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE
OF 3500-4000J/KG. HOWEVER...THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS 25-30KT AND NOT
AS CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE DEVELOPMENT. THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
DIMINISH BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY EAST.

WITH VERY WARM HUMID CONDITIONS AND A BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...THERE
IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WELL WITH
3500-4500J/KG SURFACE BASED CAPE AND DEEP SHEAR OF 30-35KT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON. A
FEW ISOLD SHOWERS MAY IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL NEB...AROUND KONL...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN WELL EAST OF KVTN AND KLBF. TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCH TO AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL...FROM KBBW TO
KONL...FROM AROUND 10Z THROUGH AROUND 13Z. THE FOG IS LIKELY TO BE
SHALLOW HOWEVER LOCALLY REDUCED VSBY TO 1SM OR LESS. TOMORROW ANY
FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...MASEK






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