000
FXUS63 KFGF 141459
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
959 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE AREA AND HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHERN RRV INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA FOR POSSIBLE
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 14Z WEST WIND SHIFT JUST EAST
OF BISMARCK NORTH TO MCCLUSKY NEAR RUGBY TO BOTTINEAU. BEHIND THE
FROPA STILL EXPECTING EFFICIENT MIXING TO 750MB...ALLOWING FOR
RAPID WARM UP. GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH STILL EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A STRONG LINE SEGMENT PRODUCING SPORADIC
SEVERE (50+ KTS) DOWNBURST WINDS ACROSS BARNES/CASS COUNTIES.
INCREASED POPS TO 100 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
WITH THIS LINE AS ITS FORWARD PROPAGATION IS NEAR 60 MPH. PERSONS
IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE LATEST
STATEMENTS AND/OR WARNINGS. REST OF THE FORECAST OK FOR NOW WITH
NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...BUT WILL USE LATEST HRRR FOR PRECIPITATION TRENDS
THROUGH 18 UTC. THEREAFTER...A BLENDED SOLUTION SHOULD SUFFICE.

08 UTC WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A STRONG...YET PROGRESSIVE SHORT
WAVE MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND INTO NORTHEAST MT. A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL
ND IN AN AREA OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND INCREASED
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH STRETCHES
FROM NEAR WILLISTON TO MILES CITY MT. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND
INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD AFTER 15 UTC. INCREASED POPS FROM 60 TO 80
PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WHERE A QUICK QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY FOR
THOSE AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE VALLEY FLOOR BY 18 UTC.
WITH STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE...AN
ADIABATIC BOUNDARY LAYER TO 750 HPA AND 30 TO 40 KTS TO MIX
DOWN...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN ND NECESSITATES A
WIND ADVISORY FROM 17 TO 02 UTC FOR ALL AREAS EXPECT THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES. WILL CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WATCH AS WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH CRITERIA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY STILL
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S BEFORE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND WHEN COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH WILL CREATE
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAIL.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
AFTER SUNSET...BUT REMAIN ELEVATED FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY WILL BE DRY...BUT EXPECT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A WIDE SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING INTO EASTERN ND BY 12 UTC FRIDAY. INCREASED POPS
INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY...BUT IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE...
WILL NEED TO INCREASE FURTHER. DON/T EXPECT MUCH TEMPERATURE
CHANGE FROM WEDNESDAY WITH THURSDAY/S HIGHS IN THE 70S.

00Z ECMWF/GFS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN FRI-MON
IN SHOWING A LARGE 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND EVENTUAL 500 MB LOW FORMATION IN
MINNESOTA. THIS LEADS TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THRU THE PD. SHOWWALTERS FROM THE MODELS PROG INDICATE
SOME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FRI-SUN THEN MOSTLY SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
OVER THE 4 DAY PERIOD...SOME HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE
SOMEWHERE IN OUR REGION AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.50 INCHES OVER SE
ND INTO NRN MN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

EXPECT STRONG WEST- NORTHWEST WIND TO DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY AT
KDVL/KGFK/KFAR. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MARKEDLY LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL OF ERN ND INTO MUCH OF NW/WCNTRL
MN (EXCEPT LAKE OF THE WOODS AND NORTH BELTRAMI REGIONS) FOR 17Z TUE
TO 02Z WED. FUELS REMAIN DRY AND PRIME. WILDFIRE ONGOING NEAR GRYGLA
IN SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL COUNTY. FUELS REMAIN DRY IN ERN ND AS
WELL...THOUGH PARTS OF NE ND AND FAR NW MN WILL SEE SOME RAINFALL
THIS MORNING. BELIEVE THAT EARLY MORNING LOW PCPN AMTS WILL NOT HAVE
GREAT IMPACT ON DECREASING HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEP MIXING
LAYER COMBINES WITH STRONG WEST NORTHWEST WINDS TO YIELD VALUES
BELOW 25 PERCENT EVEN IN WEST CENTRAL MN.  WILL MONITOR HUMIDITY
LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.

&&


.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-
     013>016-022-023-027>031-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG
FIRE WEATHER...WJB