000
FXUS63 KFGF 090833
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
333 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATER THU AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY...AND TEMPS. MODELS CONTINUE IN VERY GOOD OVERALL
AGREEMENT...AND PREFER A GFS/ECMWF MIX THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID
70S FOR MOST AREAS...AND COULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S PERHAPS.

FOR TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 6Z THU...AND TEMPS
WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN TONIGHTS LOWS.

ON THURSDAY...MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING. TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE NORMAL...INTO
THE LOW 80S FOR MOST AREAS. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON STORMS IN THE SOUTH NEAR THE GREATEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AXIS...BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL THU NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

FOR THU NIGHT...EXPECT A CHANCE OF STORMS IN ALL AREAS WITH A
SHORTWAVE...COLD FRONT AND INSTABILITY/MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE
BEST FORCING AND SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THU
NIGHT...WITH INSTABILITY FAIRLY WEAK AT THIS TIME WITH MLCAPE BELOW
500 J/KG. THERE WILL BE AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE THOUGH WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.5 INCHES...SO MODELS COULD BE UNDERESTIMATING
INSTABILITY. SPC HAS A SEE TEXT FOR A 5 PERCENT RISK OF SOME
SEVERE STORMS...SO SOMETHING WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WEST AND NORTH THU NIGHT THEN MOVE EAST BY
12Z FRI.

ON FRIDAY...THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO THE EASTERN AREAS BY
THE AFTERNOON...THEN EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z SAT. TEMPS
SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH MINIMAL COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT.

SATURDAY TO TUESDAY...MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TEMPS
AS MASSIVE 500MB TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA IN RESPONSE TO
STRONG RIDGING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NEEDLESS
TO SAY SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR 80 FOR HIGHS
BEFORE THE FIRST PUSH OF COOLER AIR MOVES IN ON SUNDAY. WILL
HAVE/KEEP CHC POPS FOR THUNDER SUNDAY AND MENTION SHOWERS ON MONDAY
AS ALL INSTABILITY WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FA AS THE 4 TO 8C 850MB AIR
IS USHERED IN ON 40KT N WINDS MONDAY. THE COOL DRY AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...VOELKER