000
FXUS63 KFGF 020914
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
314 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING
ACROSS THE FA LATE TONIGHT AND AFTER-AFFECTS. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONT BUT STILL SHOWING SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH SNOW BAND LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW POTENTIAL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH SO ONLY MADE MINOR POP CHANGES THROUGH THE
CFP EVENT.

FOR TODAY SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST SETTING UP RESPECTABLE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT/WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING BECOMING WINDY BY AFTERNOON. MID
LEVEL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH DRY LAYER BLO NOT
ANTICIPATING MEASURABLE SNOW AND PULLED POPS. IN SPITE OF
AFTERNOON CLOUDS WITH WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER
CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...
STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS FAR NW FA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SWEEPS
THROUGH THE FA BY MID MORNING TUESDAY. EXPECT TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
OVERNIGHT BASED ON TIMING OF FRONT. AS SURFACE LOW EJECTS EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE THIRD OF THE FA
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AM. BEST SNOW POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE ALONG
THE ND/SD/MN BORDER REGION. HOW MUCH AND HOW FAR NORTH SNOW WILL
GET STILL IN SOME QUESTION BUT AT THIS POINT APPEARS 1-3 INCHES
OVERALL WITH POSSIBLY MORE OVER GRANT COUNTY. STRONG PUSH OF COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE EFFICIENT IN MIXING STRONGER WINDS (30-40KTS) IN
MIXED LAYER TO THE SURFACE. THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON BLSN
POTENTIAL AS WINDS INCREASE AND HOW MUCH VSBY WILL BE RESTRICTED. SNOW IS
OLD SO WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS AND WHERE. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE FA SO BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH IN STRONGER WINDS AND
FALLING SNOW. STILL SOME TIME TO IRON OUT DETAILS SO WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY HEADLINES. WILL ALSO NEED AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY WIND
CHILL HEADLINES AS WINDS/COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES. TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY DURING THE DAY WILL BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

WIND CHILL ISSUES EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS MIXING HOLDS UP AND
COLD POCKET SHIFTS OVER FA. MIXING WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP
SOMEWHAT AND SOME QUESTION ON CLOUD COVER AS MODELS SHOWING MOIST
LAYER UPWARD INTO THE MID LEVELS.

WILL BE COLD DAY WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH COLDEST AIR SHIFTS EAST. HIGH
BUILDS IN BY EVENING FOR DIMINISHING WIND BUT WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE LATE IN THE DAY.

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER SOME WARM ADVECTION
INITIATES ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE FA AFT MIDNIGHT AS HIGH
DROPS SOUTHWARD. WIND CHILL ISSUES TO CONTINUE.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WILL START OFF WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL SE OF THE FA. 00Z GFS SHOWS A WEAK
WAVE DROPPING SE IN THE 00Z-12Z FRI TIME FRAME. THIS WOULD GENERATE
A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA. HOWEVER OTHER MODELS ARE
WEAKER OR FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS WAVE SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST FOR
THIS TIME FRAME DRY FOR NOW. DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO THE FRI NIGHT
PERIOD AS WELL WITH THE GFS/GEM SHOWING SOME LIGHT SNOW AND THE
ECMWF SHOWING THE WAVE AND ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT BACK IN
MONTANA. ONCE AGAIN WITH THESE DIFFERENCES WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY. SAME STORY FOR SUNDAY WITH THE MODELS DIFFERING ON THE PATTERN
BUT FOR SOME REASON THEY BOTH HAVE SOME PCPN. THEREFORE LEFT IN SOME
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPS LOOK COOLEST FOR
THURSDAY WITH A WARMING TREND INTO THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FROM 00Z TAFS. SMALL AREA OF VFR STRATOCU CLOUDS TVF
AREA MOVING SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE CLEAR AND GENERALLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT THRU MONDAY LATE MORNING. INCREASE IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MONDAY LATE MORNING-AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS FROM
THE SOUTH INTO ERN ND/NW MN MONDAY MID AFTN AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL TURN SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MID MORNING THEN INCREASE
QUICKLY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTN WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY IMPACTING GFK/FAR AIRPORTS WITH SOUTH WINDS 20-30 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE