569
FXUS63 KFGF 240416
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1116 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

Chance for strong to severe storms returns to the area at the
end of the week into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Cumulus clouds have cleared out and skies are mostly clear. Fog
remains possible tonight but confidence is too low to add to the
forecast at this time. It will be something to monitor but other
than that impacts will remain limited.

UPDATE
Issued at 659 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Scattered cumulus continues across the region. Temperatures
remain cool and winds should become fairly light overnight, so
fog couldn`t be ruled out once again. Having said that, weather
impacts for the overnight will be limited.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

...Synopsis...

SFC high pressure will continue to keep precipitation chances at
bay through Tuesday night. Subtle or weak upper wave does look
to bring some shower and thunderstorm chances that lift across
the area from south to north Wednesday into Thursday. With
moisture and instability lacking only general thunder is
expected with this activity. This high pressure and cooler temps
will persist Tuesday thru Thursday with a return to temps in
the 80s expected Friday and into the weekend.

...Friday & Saturday Severe Storm Risk...

Return flow and instability will return Friday and into the
weekend which will set the stage for the potential for severe
weather. Ensembles showing shear and instability values are
indicating >70 pct chance where 0-6 km bulk shear and CAPE >1500
j/kg Friday and into Saturday. Timing of the waves will need to
monitored to see where and how the spacing of shear and
instability evolve which will indicate most likely storm modes.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

VFR conditions will prevail for the TAF period with the
exception of potential fog between 09-12z. It seems increasingly
probable that fog will develop somewhere, but impacts to TAF
sites are very uncertain. With the potential fog, expect
generally light and variable winds for the most part, with
increasingly southerly to southwesterly winds tomorrow
afternoon, mainly in eastern North Dakota. Cumulus will develop
tomorrow afternoon but will have ceilings well in VFR between
050 and 100. This will diminish with winds after sunset once
again.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Perroux
DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...Perroux