000
FXUS63 KFGF 140233
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

FOR THE MOST PART...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINIMAL
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE. WINDS MAY BE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE
STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES DOWN THE VALLEY LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE CONDITIONS WOULD BE
BRIEF. OTHERWISE...ANY SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBY...BUT
AGAIN THESE CONDITIONS WOULD BE BRIEF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS PACKAGE. AS OF MID AFTERNOON TEMPS
CONTINUED TO PUSH FORECAST HIGHS. TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 50S ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST FA PUSHING TOWARD KFAR WHILE EVEN KGFK WAS MAKING A
RUN AT 50F. A LITTLE MORE SNOW COVER AND PERSISTENT SOUTH WINDS
WERE HAMPERING THE RISE FROM HALLOCK DOWN THRU FOSSTON MN. WINDS
WERE STILL WESTERLY ACROSS THE WESTERN FA WHILE UPSTREAM ACROSS
NORTHWEST ND WINDS WERE STARTING TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT
THIS SHIFT TO THE NW TO REACH INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN ND BY 00Z
FRI. THIS SHOULD START SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. HOWEVER THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE COLD ADVECTION WILL
PROBABLY NOT GET GOING UNTIL CLOSER TO FRI MORNING. THERE IS VERY
LITTLE UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER AND NO PCPN UNTIL NEAR THE WAVE UP
OVER EAST CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. THEREFORE REMOVED PCPN FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE EVENING. AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WAVE DROPS
INTO THE NORTHERN FA AROUND MIDNIGHT IT COULD STILL SPREAD A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WITH IT BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
THE COLD ADVECTION AND LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHWARD ON FRI. ALONG WITH THIS WIND SPEEDS COULD GET A LITTLE
GUSTY. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY. MODELS
SEEM TO AGREE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHWEST ON FRI NIGHT WHILE TEMPS IN THE FAR NORTH MAY
ACTUALLY DROP BACK BELOW ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

LEFT SOME SIMILAR LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST INTO THE MORNING SAT. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH IN CONTROL
ACROSS THE NORTH. THE SFC HIGH DROPS SOUTHEAST SAT NIGHT WITH MORE
BELOW ZERO LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. SLOWED DOWN THE
ARRIVAL TIME OF SNOW CHANCES ON SUNDAY AS MODELS ARE NOW DRY THRU
18Z. WILL KEEP CHANCES AS THEY WERE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NW FLOW PATTERN WILL BROADEN
OUT EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND BECOME MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE PACIFIC RIDGING PUSHES US BACK INTO NW
FLOW FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WILL SEE WARMEST TEMPS NEAR THE
END OF NEXT WEEK US RIDGING PUSHES EASTWARD. A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL BRING LOW CONFIDENCE/LOW POPS FOR MAJORITY OF THE LONG
TERM...BUT DO NOT FORESEE ANY SIGNIFICANT 40 DEG PLUS DAYS IN THE
LONG TERM. IN GENERALLY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT...ADVANCING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SCATTERED MID-HIGH
CLOUDS WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG
AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG