Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 241244

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
644 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

Issued at 644 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

Expanded low POPs a bit further north based on current radar
trends, but snow showers will be short lived and any accumulations
in that area light. Radar is overshooting snow in the southern
counties where web cams still show snow at Forman and Lake
Agassiz. Will continue to keep the higher POPs in the far south
along with best accumulations. Still expecting less than an inch.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

Snow chances and amounts will be the main challenge for the short

Some light snow showers have entered our southwestern counties as
an inverted trough starts to nose into southern ND. Web cams show
there has been enough to coat some roads in far western Ransom
county, with some fairly decent flakes also seen in central Sargent
county. The short range models all have this snow diminishing in
the next few hours as the main system to the south over the
Central Plains ramps up. The global models are also in fairly good
agreement, bringing only some very light precip into our far
southern counties with the main deformation band staying well to
the south. Will continue to keep low POPs in our far southern
counties for much of the day, but think that any accumulation will
be less than an inch. Highs will again be a degree or two cooler
than yesterday in the 20s to low 30s.

Tonight, the main upper low to our south will be headed off to the
east. There is another shortwave in the northern branch that is
much weaker but will move into western ND overnight. The models
all break out some precip with this shortwave but QPF is very very
minimal. Think the system will bring mostly flurries but will keep
the low chance chance for snow spreading from the northwest CWA
eastward overnight. Accumulations will be minimal. Winds will pick
up on the backside of the low pressure system to the south, but
should stay below 15 kts overnight. With cold air advection
helping temps drop down into the teens to low 20s it will feel a
bit raw in comparison to the last few days.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

Wednesday through Thursday...A northern branch shortwave will dig
down through the Northern Plains and into the upper midwest
throughout the period, with the flow amplifying by Thursday. This
will help bring some colder air back down into the region and
temps should be falling down into the teens and 20s for highs and
teens to single digits for lows. However, temps are still above
seasonal averages. The models continue to break out some very
light QPF over the region as the shortwave moves through, although
confined to MN by Wednesday night/Thursday. Will continue to keep
some chance POPs going but it still seems at this point the precip will
be flurries/light snow with no or only a dusting of accumulation.

Friday through Monday...Long wave ridge remains over western North
America. A broad long wave trough over eastern Canada and much of
the eastern US sharpens and shifts to eastern North America by the
end of the period.

Northwest flow aloft occurs over the Northern Plains with short
waves embedded in the flow. The ECMWF was slightly faster than the
GFS. Will blend the models.

Little change to high temperatures for Sat and Mon. High temps were
lowered a degree or two for Fri and one to four degrees lower for
Sun from yesterdays forecast package.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 644 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

Some snow moved into KFAR but has moved back out again. All TAF
sites should remain dry today as most of the snow will stay south
near the SD border. All sites are MVFR, and a few sites could
briefly improve to the 2500-3500 ft range this afternoon before
going back down. IFR ceilings are coming in from the north and
from the southwest, so think that sub-1000 ft ceilings will move
in later tonight. Winds will be northwest to light and variable in
some spots, but then steady out to from the north at 10 to 15 kts
by the end of the period.




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