000
FXUS63 KFGF 130452
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1152 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD ACCORDINGLY. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
FOG DEVELOPING WITH LANGDON GOING DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE
BRIEFLY ALTHOUGH IT IS NOW BACK UP. HRRR AND SREF SHOW SOME SIGNS
OF FOG...ALTHOUGH WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BRINGING IN DRIER DEWPOINTS
DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD. STILL...WITH RECENT RAIN AND
WINDS PRETTY LIGHT IN SOME AREAS...WILL INCLUDE A PATCHY FOG
MENTION IN THE NORTH WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE THE HIGHEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

BUMPED UP WINDS A BIT CLOSER TO WHAT THE HRRR HAS AS WINDS ALONG
THE GUST FRONT AS IT CONTINUES THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES HAVE
BEEN PRETTY STRONG. SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM THE CENTRAL RED RIVER
VALLEY TOWARDS BEMIDJI...AND THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE THE ACTIVITY MOVING SOUTH AND BECOMING WEAKER AND MORE
SCATTERED. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

ADJUSTED POPS FOR LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. MESOSCALE MODELS PERSIST IN EVENTUALLY BREAKING UP THE
LINE AS IT MOVES SOUTH...A LITTLE LESS SO IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.
GIVEN THE WEAKENING INSTABILITY FURTHER SOUTH THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. KEPT POPS DECREASING THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
EVENTUALLY ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN COOLED AIR HAS ALREADY
DROPPED TEMPS INTO THE 50S ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER...SO LOWERED
TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING BUT KEPT LOWS AROUND 50 FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM THE MAIN FOCUS IS THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER EARLY THIS EVENING. WV SHOWS STRONG DRY PUNCH...SUGGESTIVE
OF JET DEPICTED IN MODELS...PUNCHING RAPIDLY SOUTH. VARIOUS HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW A FAST MOVING LINE OF TSRA ALONG COLD FRONT. MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...0 - 1KM CAPE TO 700 J/KG AND SWI -2C BUT 0 - 6KM
BULK SHEAR CLIMBS TO 60KTS AT 00Z...YET IS POST FRONTAL. BASED ON
THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE SUSPECT MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS. 15Z
SREF 3HR SVR TSTM PROB SUPPORTS +TSRA 21Z - 03Z.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY ZIPS THROUGH CWFA OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER INITIAL PUSH WITH CONVECTION AND LOW LEVEL CAA IS
SPENT. FROM A BOUNDARY LAYER STANDPOINT THE AIRMASS IS ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER 12Z SUNDAY THAN 12Z THIS MORNING. SO EXPECT MIN
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN SATURDAY. STRONGER LOW LEVEL CAA
DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO
RECOVER....HIGHS PERHAPS 10F COOLER. WINDS INCREASE AS WELL WITH
DIRECTION FAVORING A MORE EFFECTIVE MIXING PROFILE. VARIOUS
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WINDY DAY...PERHAPS CLOSE TO WIND ADV CRITERIA
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT BUT SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL CAA
...ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT AND 30+KTS AT 850 SUGGEST ONLY MODEST
DECREASE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

DEEP UPPER LOW HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECAST TO DROP FROM SOUTHWEST
ONTARIO INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE DEEP CIRCULATION. WITH COLDER AIR
ALOFT -RASH POSSIBLE WEST OF RRV AS WELL. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY WILL NOT INTRODUCE THUNDER...BUT ISOLD -TSRA PSBL DUE
TO STRENGTH OF 700 COLD POOL.

VARIOUS MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO COME CLOSER TOGETHER PAINTING MONDAY
AS A CHILLY MID JULY DAY. DYNAMIC MODELS TEND TO BE WARMER WHILE THE
MOS/BC/WEIGHTED MODELS COOLER. LOCAL VERIFICATION SUGGESTS THE
DYNAMIC MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO WARM SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
WEIGHTED MOS/BC VERSIONS. LATEST FORECASTS STILL PRESENT
POSSIBILITY OF RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
MONDAY.

QUITE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AS HIGH SETTLES IN AND GRADIENT RELAXES.
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS 2C TO 4C WARMING AND SHOULD BE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SOLAR...YET LACK OF MIXING KEEPS TEMPERATURE BELOW
MEDIAN.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT (WITHOUT MUCH
EVIDENCE OF ANY SHORT WAVE ACTION) SHOULD MEAN MAINLY SUNNY DRY
WEATHER FOR THE WED/THUR TIME FRAME COMING OUT OF OUR UNSEASONABLY
START TO THE WEEK.  THE MERCURY WILL STILL BE RECOVERING WEDNESDAY
BEFORE HEADING TO MORE AVERAGE LEVELS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  GFS (AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF) IS PAINTING ANOTHER DEEPER LOW SCENARIO
NEAR INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED
VOLUMINOUS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.  THIS SEEMS SUSPECT AT THIS TIME
AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED LOW POPS MAINLY EASTERN FORECAST AREA FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AS THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
FORMATION NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BUT THAT IT WILL BE PRETTY
ISOLATED AND NOT AFFECT THE TAF SITES. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 BY MID MORNING
TOMORROW. STRATOCU FORMATION SHOULD BRING SOME CIGS OF AROUND
5000-8000 FT. MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL MOVE DOWN WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT PRETTY SCATTERED SO
WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. SOME OF THE GUIDENCE HAS
MVFR CIGS LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT THE SREF PROBABILITIES KEEP THE
BEST CHANCES OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR NOW KEPT THINGS VFR BUT MAY HAVE TO PUT SOME LOWER CIGS IN AT
KBJI AND KTVF TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...EWENS
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...JR