Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 271757

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1257 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Issued at 1257 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Fog continues to linger at a few sites across the area, so have
extended the patchy fog wording into the early afternoon. Clouds
are also quite variable, but the thickest clouds remain along and
east of the Red River Valley. Visible satellite imagery has not
shown much change, but still expect the fog to lift by mid


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Fog and cloud trends the main issue the next 12 hours. There was
an area of clearing which moved into the Devils Lake area last
evening spread into Cooperstown and clipped Grand Forks and into
Fargo but also have some high clouds above it. Fog in Devils Lake
basin has spread a bit east and southeast thru 08z toward Grand
Forks. But also there is a band of low clouds and no fog north of
GFK so this may move south. So at the present time expanse of
dense fog is still questionable so will do SPS. But monitor. For
the rest of the day...clouds feel will stick around most
areas of some variety...but drying does occur late today into this
evening as warm advection gets going. But also time of year and
warm adv over the cloud layer (if it remains in place) may act to
keep lower clouds in where low clouds dont clear out. Anyhow did
go a bit cloudier today and a bit cooler than prev fcst.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Friday should be a mild day with mid 50s to mid 60s across the
area as mild air is south of the low that will be moving along the
International border. Colder air behind this system will not drop
south til Friday night into Saturday. Precipitation will remain
north of the border.

Upper level features continue to show a more zonal pattern with
precipitation associated with a wave crossing the area in the
middle of the forecast period.

For Sunday...the high pressure retreats eastward with return flow
and increasing thicknesses pointing toward moderating temps...with
highs reaching into the mid 50s. A tightening pressure gradient will
see some gustiness associated with the south to southwest winds.

By Monday and Monday night...a wave crosses the area providing
another chance for measurable precipitation. For now...looking at an
initial round of pcpn associated with a warm frontal boundary...with
wrapping moisture in the wake of a cold front. Thickness values and
850mb temps continue to show rain as the main form of pcpn at this
time. Tuesday the precipitation will move out of the
area and cooler conditions are expected in its wake through the end
of the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Very challenging set of TAFs this afternoon. There will be a wind
switch to deal with Friday...and whether fog and low clouds will
ever go away today or come back overnight. Expected the fog to be
done with by now, but it continues to linger at KGFK/KBJI/KTVF.
Will still go with the idea that the fog will lift this afternoon,
but the lower clouds will linger. Models have varying solutions as
to what happens tonight with the clouds/fog, with some models not
showing fog and some showing lots of fog. So confidence is quite
low with the fog forecast. Low clouds are the same way. As an
example, KFAR is well VFR now, but sites all around it are much
worse. For now held off on mentioning any fog late tonight, and
will let the next shift keep an eye on that. Did continue to
mention low clouds for the TAFs where they are at now. Overall,
the aviation forecast will be highly variable and will just have
to monitor.




LONG TERM...Hopkins/Riddle
AVIATION...Godon is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.