Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 272345
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
745 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL DRIFT INTO WESTERN NY OVERNIGHT AND PRODUCE A FEW
PATCHES OF HIGH/VERY THIN CIRRUS...WITH CLEAR SKIES OTHERWISE
EXPECTED. THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW VERY GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER
50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS...AND THE MID 40S IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION. THE STRONG COOLING WILL ALLOW
FOR THE TYPICAL SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG TO FORM ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MOST DENSE FOG ALONG THE UPPER ALLEGHENY AND
UPPER GENESEE RIVERS AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES. SOME PATCHY/THIN FOG
MAY FORM ELSEWHERE BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN VERY SPOTTY.

ON SUNDAY THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE ANOTHER DAY OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. HIGH/THIN CIRRUS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE CIRRUS MAY THICKEN SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT
SHOULD NOT DETRACT FROM A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE
FLOW AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL AGAIN ALLOW LAKE BREEZES
TO FORM WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE ALONG ALL THE LAKESHORES. 850MB
TEMPS OF AROUND +14C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR 80 AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORES...WITH MID 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. LOCAL
LAKE BREEZES WILL KEEP THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN PROVIDING THE BEAUTIFUL
FALL WEATHER OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...WILL BE REPLACED BY WEAK UPPER
TROUGHING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...HOWEVER THIS BY NO MEANS WILL
BRING ANY BIG CHANGES TO REGION.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSS NEW
YORK STATE ON MONDAY. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER SUNDAY NIGHT...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF
VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER PROBABLY NOT AS DENSE AS THE
PAST FEW NIGHTS. FOR MONDAY...THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND BETTER
LIFT WILL BE FOUND BEHIND THIS FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOST OF
THE REGION TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY EVEN AS THE COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...THEN
WASHES OUT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER DUE TO A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THIS REGION OUT OF PA. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY A SOMEWHAT MORE POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PRESS THROUGH
THE AREA. IT NOW LOOKS AS THOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH MAY HANG ON THOUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WITH THIS IN
MIND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME...WITH SPOTTY COVERAGE AT BEST. AS FOR TEMPS...COOLER
AIR WILL SLOWLY OOZE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
STARTING MONDAY. THIS WILL MEAN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
+10C/+11C RANGE FOR TUESDAY...WHICH WILL DROP HIGHS DOWN ANOTHER
FEW NOTCHES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG SURFACE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD PROVIDE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE EAST
NORTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS AVERAGING
IN THE +10C RANGE WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S...WHICH IS CLOSER
TO WHERE WE SHOULD BE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA WINDS WILL TURN MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. TEMPS LOOK TO BE CLOSER TO 70
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EVEN SOME LOW 70S MAY BE FOUND ACROSS AREAS OF
SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT TO BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS LOOKS TO BE OUR FIRST CHANCE AT SEEING
WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION IN QUITE SOME
TIME. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SOLUTION...SO CONFIDENCE IS ON THE INCREASE...HOWEVER THIS
FAR OUT IN TIME WILL ONLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS AS TIMING CAN STILL
CHANGE. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FRIDAY...WHICH WILL HELP
BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME UPPER 70S NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THOSE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL DROP SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES AS MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 50S FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS WILL RESULT IN UNLIMITED VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
AREA...WITH JUST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THIN CIRRUS OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY SPREADS INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE ONE MAIN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...WHERE THE TYPICAL LIFR/IFR VALLEY FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT
AND PERSIST WELL INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. AT THIS
POINT EXPECT ANY SUCH FOG TO ONLY HAVE A LIMITED IMPACT ON THE
KJHW TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...WITH THE BULK OF THIS
OTHERWISE REMAINING CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS. ELSEWHERE ANY FOG
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER THIN/PATCHY AND GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE TAF
SITES.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED IFR IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. STRONG DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW LOCAL LAKE
BREEZES TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING
ONSHORE ALONG ALL THE LAKESHORES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY DEVELOP ON LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS MAY BRING WINDS AND WAVES TO NEAR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BRIEFLY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/JJR
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







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