Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 281950
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
350 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUMMERS HEAT TO THE
REGION THROUGH TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW
NIGHT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE FUELING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A 500 HPA UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER...OR TO OUR WEST
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...TO THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...WITH JUST PASSING CIRRUS...AND SOME AFTERNOON FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS. WITHIN A SIMILAR AIRMASS SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG
WILL FORM OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME
PERIOD...BUT WILL STRENGTHEN SOME FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW BEHIND
THE DEPARTING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER ANOTHER WARMER THAN
NORMAL NIGHT THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PUSH THE
COOLER LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS FARTHER INLAND REACHING THE BUFFALO
AND WATERTOWN AIRPORTS. THIS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THESE LOCATIONS IN
THE UPPER 80S...WHILE THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND GENESEE
VALLEY ...THE FINGER LAKES REGION...AND SAINT LAWRENCE AND BLACK
RIVER VALLEYS SHOULD AGAIN MAKE A RUN AT 90F OR BETTER. DEWPOINTS
TOMORROW WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 60S...SUPPORTING HEAT INDEX VALUES
AGAIN IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL TRACK TOWARD HUDSON BAY. AN ELONGATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE PARENT LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING IS
RATHER LACK LUSTER... WITH ONLY FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TO ORGANIZED
RAIN SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT AND SHOWERY ALONG THE FRONT... AS INSTABILITY WILL BE
WEAK WITH THE EARLY MORNING TIMING. CLEARING WILL WORK ACROSS THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON... AS DRIER AIR AND
SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WORK ACROSS THE AREA.

MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AS SURFACE BASED RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL REPRESENT THE MORE MODERATE
AIRMASS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S NEAR THE LAKES WITH COOLER READINGS DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINTAINING LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THIS
FLOW MAY PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...THE TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES IS AMBIGUOUS AT BEST AND AT ANY RATE WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW KEEPING AVAILABLE MOISTURE LIMITED...AM NOT CONFIDENT
WE WILL SEE MUCH IF ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AT ANY RATE...WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE...THERE SHOULD BE A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TO BE HAD.

THE GFS/EC HAVE SHOWN MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THEY ATTEMPT TO DIG THE HUDSON BAY LOW SOUTH
ACROSS ONTARIO...HOWEVER WOULD LIKE TO SEE THIS TREND CONTINUE FOR A
FEW MORE RUNS BEFORE BUYING INTO IT. THUS FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSE
TO CONTINUITY...MAINTAINING LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH THE BROAD TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. LIKEWISE...LOWS WILL RUN CLOSE TO AVERAGE
WITH LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE LAKES COOLING TO UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

LOOK AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK... MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD AN OVERALL
MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN US AND A LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE HUDSON BAY. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES IT WILL SPELL TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR WEAKLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 18Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION...AND
THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATELY HOLD THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IFR OR LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOUND IN
RIVER VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE
TO EXPAND TO NEAR THE KJHW TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON...AND THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. CALM
OR A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT WILL INCREASE SOME THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW. LOCAL LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL DEVELOP...AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL NEAR 10 KNOTS BY THE CLOSE OF THE TAF CYCLE
OVER KIAG/KBUF.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN LIGHT ON THE LAKES AND RIVERS
AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY BUT WINDS AND WAVES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT AWAY FROM STORMS. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THURSDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL
CONTINUE...THOUGH WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS



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