Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 210608
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
208 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT FOR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AS A COOL AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE A
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHT...A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE BY WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS... IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK PASSING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. WITH A VERY
DRY AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE IN THE LOWEST 6-10 KFT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE PER OBSERVED AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
JUST BRING INCREASING/THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER TO MOST
OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES REACHING THE
GROUND ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN MOST PLACES...WITH PERHAPS SOME
MID 30S AND PATCHY FROST FOUND ACROSS LEWIS COUNTY... WHERE A
FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE.

THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL BRING DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD
SUCH THAT WE SHOULD SEE A CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA. WE SHOULD STILL REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE...WITH
AIR TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. HIGHS TOMORROW
WILL TOP OUT IN THE 60S...WITH MID 60S FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
NIAGARA FRONTIER AND GENESEE/FINGER LAKES REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM HUDSON BAY INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT
DOWN INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THETA-E POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS...BUT FOR THE PART EXPECT THE FRONT TO
SLIDE THROUGH DRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK LATER FRIDAY BEFORE SLIDING EAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
SATURDAY...RETURNING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK AND WEEKEND. THE COLDEST PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS. FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO APPEAR LIKELY DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD AND WILL MAINTAIN THE RISK WITHIN THE HWO PRODUCT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BROAD SURFACE WHICH HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE EAST SUNDAY WHILE A STUBBORN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUING TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE INCOMING
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH A SURFACE WARM FORECAST
PUSHING NORTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LATEST GFS SUGGESTS THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL START OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
ECMWF HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL MONDAY. THINK THAT THE ECMWF MAY HAVE THE
BETTER IDEA JUST BASED ON STRENGTH OF UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
DRIER AIR REMAINING IN PLACE. WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY SNEAKING INTO WESTERN AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LOOKS
LIKE THE BEGINNING OF AN UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED/WET
WEEK WILL BEGIN MONDAY...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO START OFF AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL BEFORE
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEAVES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK PASSING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TEND TO THIN OUT SOME FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THESE
FEATURES...BEFORE VFR CLOUD COVER INCREASES AGAIN OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WHILE THIS LATTER FEATURE COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SPOTTY
LIGHT SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT...THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN ANY RESTRICTIONS IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS/ATTENDANT
MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE FRIDAY WHEN WINDS AND WAVES MAY NEAR SCA ON THE
LAKES FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ012-020-021.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...APFFEL/JJR/THOMAS


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