Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 170551
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
151 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide our region with continued mainly dry
weather and summerlike warmth through the rest of the weekend...
with just a chance of a few widely scattered showers across interior
portions of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes Sunday afternoon.
Somewhat better chances for some showers and a few thunderstorms
will then arrive on Monday as a weak cold front pushes toward our
region and gradually washes out...while well above normal
temperatures otherwise persist right through next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Stacked high pressure will remain anchored over the Lower Great
Lakes through Sunday. For the most part...this will provide
continued dry weather along with with temperatures that will
average well above normal. As for some details...

Overnight we can expect mainly clear skies and light winds...
resulting in yet another strong round of radiational cooling and
nocturnal fog development given our still-moist boundary layer.
Similar to last night, satellite shows fog developing in the
river valleys with the most widespread fog in the Saint Lawrence
Valley. Elsewhere fog will be patchy, with fog expected to
continue to expand through the overnight hours. With respect to
temperatures...overnight mins will range from the lower 60s
along the lake shores to the mid to upper 50s across the North
Country and in the Southern Tier valleys.

While the aforementioned area of high pressure will remain intact
across our region on Sunday...there is a continued suggestion by
several of the guidance packages that a return flow of Atlantic
moisture between the base of the sfc high and the easterly flow well
in advance of Hurricane Jose will direct increased low level
moisture across southern New York. This increased moisture should
combine with late season diurnal heating to at least present the
potential for some nuisance showers over the Southern Tier and
interior portions of the Finger Lakes.

While it should be noted that some BUFKIT soundings suggest that a
lingering mid level cap could remain in place and potentially cap
off a developing cumulus field...these same soundings also appear to
be underestimating the amount of daytime heating of the boundary
layer that will take place on Sunday. If our current forecast max
temps across the Southern Tier and interior Finger Lakes turn out to
be realized (and there is currently no reason to believe that they
won`t)...there should be enough low level instability available to
result in at least some cumulus breaching the mid level cap and
developing into a few widely scattered showers. For this reason...
have held onto the existing low chance PoPs for these areas.

Otherwise...Sunday will be yet another warm day across our region.
Given a warmer start to the morning and slightly higher temps at
H85...a larger portion of our forecast area should experience highs
in the lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be well east of the region by Sunday night while
a weak frontal boundary will be moving east through the Western and
Central Great Lakes region.  This front, together with local lake
breeze boundaries, should be able to touch off some convection by
Monday afternoon, with better chances for wetting rains well inland
in the Southern Tier and/or toward the Finger Lakes regions.  With a
continued light wind profile, any developing storms may be slow to
move with some locally heavy rain possible.  Will have to see if
higher res models agree when they are able capture Monday Afternoon.
Tuesday should be drier, but isolated to scattered showers may
develop in the afternoon with the continued relatively moist
airmass.

Otherwise expect continued temperatures to hover 5-10F above normal
for this time of year, with highs mid 70s to lower 80s, with lows
will bottom out in the 50s, though possibly remain around 60F closer
to the lake shores.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High amplitude ridging is expected to build over the eastern CONUS
through the period, as Jose is forecast to track near or just off
the New England coastline on the eastern periphery of the ridge.
Forecast 500 mb heights are rather impressive for this time of year
with temperatures expected to run well above normal. Daily high
temperatures should range from the mid 70s to mid 80s, with the
warmest temperatures expected late in the week. Some instability
will develop each afternoon, but the area should be capped with
warm temperatures aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will remain across the region through tonight with
fog the main concern for aviation. Similar to last night, the
most widespread fog will be in the river valleys, especially the
Saint Lawrence Valley. Fog has already developed at ART and will
likely maintain IFR or lower conditions overnight. Fog is also
likely to spread into ROC/JHW as fog developing in the Allegheny
and Genesee valleys expands. Elsewhere, fog will be more patchy
in nature.

Also, fog will be variable in nature, potentially resulting in
wide ranges in flight conditions. There is a potential for IFR
(or lower) conditions at any TAF site through 13Z this morning.

After this, fog will burn off and giveway to widespread VFR
conditions late this morning through this evening. After this,
fog is again likely to develop tonight but it should be a bit
less widespread than recent nights.

Outlook...
Monday through Thursday...VFR...but with IFR to MVFR conditions
possible each night (08-12z) at KJHW.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will be stacked over the Lower Great Lakes through the
early next week. The resulting weak surface pressure gradient
will result in nearly ideal conditions for recreational boating
as winds will be light and waves will be negligible.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/RSH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JJR/RSH
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...RSH


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