Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 070233
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
933 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING MAINLY
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL GROW STEADILY COLDER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGING MORE SNOW ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS LATE EVENING IS DISPLAYING AN AREA OF
CLOUDS/MOISTURE REACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. KBUF RADAR IS
PICKING UP ON THIS MOISTURE...HOWEVER A LOOK AT UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS OVER CANADA SUGGEST THAT NONE OF THE RETURNS ARE
REACHING THE GROUND. THIS MOISTURE...PASSING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO
MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW FLURRIES OF SNOW EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO AROUND -9C WHICH WILL
BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH. OFTEN
THESE CASES WILL NOT PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT IF
PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. GIVEN FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THE FORECAST WILL INCLUDE
FLURRIES WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE TO LOW TO ISSUE ANY
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL...HOWEVER...BRING FAIRLY
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
MUCH TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND PUSH ANY LINGERING
FLURRIES TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION BY LATE MORNING. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN DURING THE DAY...BUT EXPECT A FAIRLY GOOD STRETCH
OF SUNNY SKIES THROUGH MID-DAY BEFORE THIS HAPPENS. MEANWHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH MODEST DOWNSLOPING HELPING
TO WARM THE LAKE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A COASTAL LOW IN THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...MOVING OUT TO SEA OFF THE CAROLINAS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL DEVELOP A CUTOFF LOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST AS
THE COASTAL LOW MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA. A WEAK WARM ADVECTIVE
PATTERN PRECEDING THE THE MIDWESTERN LOW WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION
ACROSS WESTERN NY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL
BE SUFFICIENTLY WARM AIR AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ON MONDAY MORNING
FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...EVEN MAINLY RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...
THEN COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING A CHANGEOVER TO
ALL SNOW BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PERSISTENT LOW WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH WIDESPREAD
SYNOPTIC SNOW EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO MORE LOCALIZED UPSLOPE AND
LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY WARM TO THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S ON
MONDAY...THEN FALL TO THE 20S MONDAY NIGHT...RECOVER TO THE 30S ON
TUESDAY AND START A LONG SLIDE DOWNWARD EACH DAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S...MAYBE REACHING 30 DEGREES ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT CONTINUES TO LOOK INCREASING LIKELY THAT TWO MAIN PUSHES OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE EXTENDED WITH
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF LONG-
LASTING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS MAINLY EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD...THE FIRST SURGE OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COASTAL STORM AND DEPARTING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
TRACING THIS AIRMASS BACK TO ITS REGION OF ORIGIN SHOW IT HAILS FROM
THE CANADIAN ARCTIC AND THE PATTERN MAINTAINS A CONTINUED SUPPLY OF
FRIGID AIR FROM THE ARCTIC. THE GFS/EC/GEM AND THEIR ENSEMBLES SHOW
850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -20C ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. THIS
WILL PROMOTE SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODEL AGREEMENT IS
GOOD IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL PROMOTE LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES LIKELY STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

BY LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
GFS/EC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD BRINGING THIS COLDER PUSH
OF ARCTIC AIR... WHICH MODEL BACK TRAJECTORIES SHOW ORIGINATES NEAR
SIBERIA AND EVOLVES INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS VIA CROSS-POLAR FLOW IN
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. SHOULD THE PERSISTENT LONG RANGE
CONSENSUS FORECAST OF 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -30C MATERIALIZE BY
SATURDAY...THIS AIRMASS WOULD LIKELY CHALLENGE DAILY RECORD COLD
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO AND
LOWS NEAR ZERO OR BELOW ZERO.

WHILE MODEL CONSENSUS AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT GIVES SOME CONFIDENCE IN
THIS COLD AIRMASS... THE DETAILS WILL LIKELY CHANGE GIVEN THIS EVENT
IS STILL A WEEK AWAY. HOWEVER... THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT BELOW TO
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
FEBRUARY WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS MAINLY EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 00Z AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS REMAINS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO START
THE TAF CYCLE. LINGERING MOISTURE AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY
BRING AN ADDITIONAL FLURRY TO THE WATERTOWN AIRPORT...OTHERWISE A
DRY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EDGE TOWARDS OUR REGION SUNDAY WITH
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
MONDAY...MVFR. RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES...BUT NUDGED THE EXPIRATION TIME UP BY A
FEW HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL WEAKEN OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
THE REGION WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND ONE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE LAKES AND BRING A STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH/WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL/THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL


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