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000
FXUS61 KBUF 070255
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
955 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT.
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES REGION...WITH NO SNOW OR ONLY FLURRIES TOWARD THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.  MEAGER LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LINGER
INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING AS HIGH PRESSURE
PROVIDES THE REGION WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
DISPLAY THE NORTHWARD EXTEND OF THE SHIELD OF SNOW NOW REACHING THE
HILLS SOUTH OF BUFFALO...AND INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER
LAKES REGION. THE HEAVIEST OF SNOWFALL IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GENESEE VALLEY...WITH LIGHTER SNOW FARTHER WEST INTO OHIO. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE ADVISORY WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE GREATEST ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF
UPWARDS TO 3-4 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY.

ELSEWHERE EXPECT LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN NIAGARA
FRONTIER...AND ALSO ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
TO AROUND -13C BY MORNING. HERE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE IS A LITTLE
GREATER AND 2 TO 3 INCHES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. THE FLOW WILL BE WNW
ALOFT WITH DRY AIR ALOFT...LIMITING OR EVEN ELIMINATING ANY CHANCE
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ERIE.

LATER OFF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE ALOFT
LATER AFTERNOON...WITH SOME BETTER CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
FROM ABOUT KFZY INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TUG HILL.  A SPECIAL
12Z 1.3KM RUN OF THE NAM FIRE WX NESTED RUN ALONG WITH OTHER HIGH
RES RUNS SHOW THIS IDEA NICELY...WITH SOME STREAMERS LATE IN THE DAY
IN ROUGHLY THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. ANY CONNECTION TO THE GEORGIAN
BAY REMAINS JUST OUT OF REACH AND NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE
RIVER BY THE END OF THE DAY. IT IS WORTHY OF NOTING THAT THE MODIS
ESTIMATED LAKE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 5C WARMER OVER THE EASTERN END
OF THE LAKE COMPARED TO THE WESTERN END. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE JUST A BIT MORE LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND EVENTUAL LIFT
OVER THE EASTERN SHORELINE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH STRONG SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRIER
AIR BUILDING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE A LINGERING
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL SUPPORT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE...THESE SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED AND FAIRLY MINIMAL IN SCOPE GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION
HEIGHTS OF 5-6 KFT...AND A RATHER LIMITED SNOW GROWTH REGION/LESS
THAN IDEAL MOISTURE BELOW THE CAPPING INVERSION. DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...AN EVEN LESS FAVORABLE SETUP SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW FLURRIES AT
WORST...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA JUST QUIET...DRY...AND COLD.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM 10-15 ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY...TO AROUND 20 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES.

ON SUNDAY...ANY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
SHOULD GET QUICKLY SQUELCHED DURING THE MORNING THANKS TO A FURTHER
LOWERING OF THE CAP AND THE WEAKENING/INCREASINGLY SHEARED LOW LEVEL
FLOW. ONCE THESE ARE GONE...DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...ALBEIT WITH SOME
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN SATURDAY/S...AND
GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 30 AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A COMPLEX AND DOUBLE-BARRELED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...
WITH THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO
JAMES BAY...AND A SECONDARY COASTAL LOW LIFTING FROM THE CAROLINA
COAST TO JUST OFFSHORE OF CAPE COD. WHILE ALL GUIDANCE PACKAGES
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE BEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING/
MOISTURE AND CONSEQUENTLY THE HEAVIEST PRECIP OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST
AND SOUTHEAST AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
TRACKS...THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CONNECTING SURFACE
TROUGH/WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS SHOULD HELP FORCE A ROUND OF MUCH
LIGHTER BUT STILL FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR
AREA...WITH THE BULK OF THIS COMING BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING...BEFORE QUICKLY TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS
A SURGE OF DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...A
MODEL QPF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A TOTAL OF ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF PRECIP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL TENTH
OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TYPE...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
PLAN VIEWS SUGGEST THE PRECIP STARTING OFF AS ALL SNOW SUNDAY
EVENING...BEFORE QUICKLY CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND THEN TO
RAIN OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS WARM ADVECTION CAUSES THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING. GIVEN THAT PRECIP
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND ALSO THAT THE WINDOW FOR
FREEZING PRECIP LOOKS TO BE RATHER BRIEF...FEEL THAT IT/S BEST TO
JUST CONTINUE HIGHLIGHTING THIS POTENTIAL WITHIN THE HWO AND HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY...THOUGH ONE MAY EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED
FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN TIER AND PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT SUNDAY NIGHT/S LOWS TO COME FAIRLY EARLY IN
THE NIGHT...WITH STEADY WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN FORCING READINGS TO
RISE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...HIGHS SHOULD PEAK IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40
BETWEEN LATE MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
FALLING BACK SOME DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

BY MONDAY EVENING...OUR AIRMASS WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
LAKE RESPONSE NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND WILL CONTINUE TO GET EVEN
COLDER THROUGH THE NIGHT UNDER A STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME.
THIS STATED...SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WILL BE
SIMULTANEOUSLY BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND WILL
PRODUCE BOTH A FAIRLY LOW CAP OF AROUND 4-5 KFT AND NOTABLE DRYING
BELOW THE INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
LIMITED IN NATURE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE CONFINED POPS NORTHEAST
OF THE LAKES TO THE LOW-MID CHANCE RANGE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
REST OF THE AREA REMAINING MAINLY DRY. GIVEN THE CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION PATTERN...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP BACK TO THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY DRIFTING FROM HUDSON BAY TO NORTHERN QUEBEC
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE EJECTING EASTWARD INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -15C TUESDAY AND TO -18C/-20C BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SUCH
A PATTERN IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS EAST OF THE LAKES...AND IN THIS PARTICULAR CASE LOOKS TO
BECOME MOST FAVORABLE SOMETIME FROM LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPTICK IN BACKGROUND
SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE.

AT THIS STILL-DISTANT JUNCTURE...DEPICTING THE EXACT LOCATION AND
INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS AT ANY GIVEN POINT IN TIME
REMAINS A HIGHLY DIFFICULT EXERCISE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF NUMEROUS
SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH...
WHICH WILL PRODUCE UNDULATIONS IN THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW THAT
SUBSEQUENTLY AFFECT BOTH BAND PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY. THIS
STATED...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT ON
DEPICTING THE MOST NOTEWORTHY OF THESE PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION
BETWEEN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME SUGGESTIONS OF A MORE
STEADY-STATE WESTERLY FLOW POTENTIALLY SETTING UP AFTER THAT TIME.
STAY TUNED!

OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...THE PERIOD SHOULD BE LARGELY
CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY DRY AND COLDER WEATHER...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
SETTLING INTO THE LOWER-MID 20S FOR THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE
WEEK...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS FALLING OFF INTO THE 5-15 DEGREE RANGE.
WHILE SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT...EXPECT THAT READINGS
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 00Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION TO START
THE TAF CYCLE...HOWEVER EXPECT CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY DROP TO IFR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN THE COMING HOURS. LIGHT...ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OVERNIGHT...WHILE ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF THE STORM...SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BRUSH BY THE
KBUF/KIAG/KROC AIRFIELDS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THE SHIELD
OF SNOW WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH OF THE KART AIRFIELD. THE WIDESPREAD
SNOW WILL END IN THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH SOME LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND LIKELY TO THE EAST OF ROCHESTER AND SOUTH OF
WATERTOWN.

THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE 5 TAF SITES EXPECT MAINLY VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS...WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. THESE WINDS
AT TIMES MAY GUST TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND
NEIGHBORING TAF SITES JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SNOW AND RAIN LIKELY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT IFR WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN WAVES THROUGH THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. AS
WINDS BECOME NEAR 20 KNOTS ON LAKE ONTARIO WAVES WILL CREST OVER 4
FEET...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...AND
REMAINING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW WAVES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON LAKE ERIE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ012>014-
     019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
         LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY
         FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
         FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS/ZAFF