Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 221758
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1258 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TODAY AND PROVIDE ONE
MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE WARMTH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR WET SNOW
SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MOST OF WESTERN NY IS FINALLY BASKING IN SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH SOME
LOWER CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
TIER. EVEN THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION SHOULD SEE DECENT
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT...AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE DELMARVA
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY EAST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY...A LITTLE WEST OF EARLIER FORECASTS. ANY PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINOR...BUT ALSO FLIRT WITH THE 32F MARK LATE
TONIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE AREA LIQUID...BUT SOME
SLEET MAY MIX IN INITIALLY. THIS COULD EVEN END UP AS FREEZING
RAIN IN SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH FOR ANY TYPE OF HEADLINE AT THE MOMENT AS THE WEAK SYSTEM
THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT HAS YET
FULLY DEVELOP WITH ONLY COASTAL RAIN ALONG THE CAROLINAS FROM A
VERY WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION. THE SUBTROPICAL JET THAT WILL AID IN
THE WEAK COASTAL LOW IS SHOWING SOME AREAS OF COOLING PER IR
IMAGERY...BUT THE LOCATION OF THE JET...WELL DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF NYS...IS NOT IDEAL FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT OVER FAR
WESTERN NY.

ANOTHER BRANCH OF THE JET WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. BUT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. THEREFORE WILL KEEP MOST OF WESTERN
NY UNDER A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER BRIEFLY
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER OR MID 30S...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STEADILY
RISE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...IN TO THE 40S BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM LEADING UP TO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY...WITH
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES PROBABLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. A STRONG FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY CHRISTMAS
DAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS LEADING UP TO THE HOLIDAY...WITH A
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS DAY BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. OUTSIDE OF THE
NAM/SREF...MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FEEL THE
NAM/SREF GUIDANCE IS AN OUTLIER FROM THE ECMWF/GGEM/GFS CONSENSUS.
THE FORECAST ESSENTIALLY BLENDS THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE LATTER SET
OF GUIDANCE...WITH THE NAM/SREF TOO DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT TO INCLUDE
IN THE CONSENSUS BLEND. IT STILL APPEARS THE PRIMARY IMPACT
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY.

THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND MOIST
AIR WHICH CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT INTO
THE NORTHEAST. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE BEST OF THIS MOISTURE TO
OUR EAST...BUT STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN ON CHRISTMAS
EVE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING...MODEL CONSENSUS FORECASTS A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW TO TRACK TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES. THIS IS
LIKELY TO BRING AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION IN THAT
TIMEFRAME. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THIS...INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN DOWNSLOPING AND THUS WARMER
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR +12C EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY
BE LATE AFTERNOON OR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS IS MORE THAN 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER.

EXPECT STRONG WINDS WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUIDANCE
DIFFERS ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW...AND IT IS POSSIBLE
WIND GUSTS WILL REACH WARNING CRITERIA OF 60 MPH OR GREATER.
ALSO...THERE WILL BE LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AND BECAUSE OF
THIS THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT MODEL UNCERTAINLY...DID NOT
ISSUE ANY HEADLINES YET...BUT WILL CONTINUE A MENTION IN THE HWO.

COOLER AIR WILL RUSH INTO THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH MORNING
RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY TO TRANSITION TO SNOW DURING THE DAY. 850MB
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO NOT BE VERY COLD...WITH ONLY A
MINIMAL LAKE RESPONSE EXPECTED. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS...BUT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. HIGHS SHOULD COME EARLY...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE 30S CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WINDY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
WHERE GUSTS STILL MAY PUSH ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS FURTHER TO THE
NORTH. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS EAST OF THE
LAKES...WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RECOVER BACK INTO THE MID 40S AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAKER GREAT LAKES
CUTTER STORM WHICH LOOKS TO BRING A SHOT OF WESTERN CANADIAN SOURCED
AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAS
BEEN INCLUDED FOR SATURDAY THEN PLAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY WITH
TEMPS BACK TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...THEN EXPECT LOWER
CLOUDS TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. SOME -SHRA WILL BE AT
POSSIBLE...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF KART AND NORTH AND WEST OF
KIAG. THIS WILL LEAVE MOST OF WESTERN NY GENERALLY DRY THROUGH
18Z TUESDAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FROM CIGS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THURSDAY...MVFR
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHSN.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER QUEBEC THROUGH TODAY BEFORE DRIFTING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE TODAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS INCREASE FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THEN CROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
THURSDAY. THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TRACK FOR STRONG WINDS
ON THE LOWER LAKES...WITH A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON
BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...TMA/ZAFF
MARINE...APFFEL/TMA






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