Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 281940
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
340 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUMMERS HEAT TO THE
REGION THROUGH TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW
NIGHT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE FUELING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A 500 HPA UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS TO OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS AXIS WILL REMAIN
OVER...OR TO OUR WEST THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...TO THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...WITH JUST PASSING CIRRUS...AND SOME AFTERNOON FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS. WITHIN A SIMILAR AIRMASS SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG
WILL FORM OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME
PERIOD...BUT WILL STRENGTHEN SOME FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW BEHIND
THE DEPARTING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER ANOTHER WARMER THAN
NORMAL NIGHT THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PUSH THE
COOLER LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS FARTHER INLAND REACHING THE BUFFALO
AND WATERTOWN AIRPORTS. THIS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THESE LOCATIONS IN
THE UPPER 80S...WHILE THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND GENESEE
VALLEY ...THE FINGER LAKES REGION...AND SAINT LAWRENCE AND BLACK
RIVER VALLEYS SHOULD AGAIN MAKE A RUN AT 90F OR BETTER. DEWPOINTS
TOMORROW WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 60S...SUPPORTING HEAT INDEX VALUES
AGAIN IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MAKING FOR A SULTRY
NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH MID TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY. THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LACK OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT SPORADIC AS IT MOVES THROUGH WESTERN
NEW YORK...THOUGH CONVECTION MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT
SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY
TO TAP INTO BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...PROVIDING FOR A SUNNY END TO THE DAY FOR MOST AREAS. THE
FAIR WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS SURFACE
BASED RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REPRESENT THE MORE MODERATE AIRMASS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE LAKES WITH COOLER
READINGS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINTAINING LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THIS
FLOW MAY PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...THE TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES IS AMBIGUOUS AT BEST AND AT ANY RATE WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW KEEPING AVAILABLE MOISTURE LIMITED...AM NOT CONFIDENT
WE WILL SEE MUCH IF ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AT ANY RATE...WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE...THERE SHOULD BE A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TO BE HAD.

THE GFS IS INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS IT ATTEMPTS TO DIG THE
HUDSON BAY LOW SOUTH ACROSS ONTARIO...HOWEVER WOULD LIKE TO SEE THIS
TREND CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE RUNS BEFORE BUYING INTO IT. THUS FOR
NOW WILL STICK CLOSE TO CONTINUITY...MAINTAINING LOW END CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THE BROAD TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. WITH FLOW BACKING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY...WE MAY SEE READINGS BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK
TOWARDS THE MID-80S. LIKEWISE...LOWS WILL RUN CLOSE TO AVERAGE WITH
LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE LAKES COOLING TO UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 18Z VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION...AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PREDOMINATELY HOLD THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IFR
OR LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOUND IN RIVER VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER...WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPAND TO NEAR THE KJHW
TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON...AND THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. CALM
OR A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT WILL INCREASE SOME THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW. LOCAL LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL DEVELOP...AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL NEAR 10 KNOTS BY THE CLOSE OF THE TAF CYCLE
OVER KIAG/KBUF.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN LIGHT ON THE LAKES AND RIVERS
AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY BUT WINDS AND WAVES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT AWAY FROM STORMS. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THURSDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL
CONTINUE...THOUGH WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS



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