Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 021504
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1104 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY
BRINGING SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OVER THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO MORE TYPICAL MID SUMMER WARMTH BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO PUFFY CUMULUS AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z BUF SOUNDING SHOWS A
H7 CAP THAT SHOULD PREVENT MOST CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM EXCEEDING
8-10K FT IN HEIGHT. ALSO DRIER AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD FROM LAKE
ONTARIO AND NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SUPPRESS CLOUD FORMATION
FURTHER BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SO WILL HEDGE ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE. EXPECT LOWS
TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE TYPICALLY COOLER
LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE A QUIET START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE EXITING THE AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AND AID IN GENERATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...GENESEE VALLEY...AND THE FINGER LAKES.
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND
GIVEN WEAK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL ONLY RUN AROUND 500 J/KG SO
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE GARDEN VARIETY AND SHOULD BE BRIEF
IN NATURE. AREAS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE THANKS TO THE LAKE SHADOW. THE AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL BE JUST A SHADE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SATURDAY.

ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR
VIEWING FOR THE FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEPART THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY AND WILL REPLACED BY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING AIR IN
THE MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AND SUNNY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING TO RUN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY...IN THE 50S INLAND TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ALONG THE
NORTHEAST COASTLINE WITH TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA WARMING TO +16 TO
+18C. SUMMER WARMTH WILL RETURN...WITH MONDAY AND TUESDAY POSSIBLY
THE WARMEST SINCE MAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO USHER IN AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS RISING BACK INTO THE MID 60S.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENCROACH THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING...THOUGH LIKELY
ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY AT THE EARLIEST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE ARE PATCHY MVFR CIGS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY ERODE LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION TODAY THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
MARINE...APFFEL/FRANKLIN



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