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000
FXUS61 KBUF 141947
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
347 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING FAIR
WEATHER PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THEN AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE CLOUDS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED TO EXPAND LAKE
ONTARIO SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE
REGION. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS...COOLEST IN
THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. DEW POINTS
ARE STILL IN THE 50S EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WHILE THESE SHOULD DROP
WITH THE DRIER AIR...EXPECT AT LEAST THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER TO HAVE SOME FOG TONIGHT. IF DRIER AIR DOES NOT MOVE IN QUICKLY
ENOUGH...ITS POSSIBLE FOG COULD DEVELOP ELSEWHERE LATE THIS
EVENING...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN BEFORE
RADIATIONAL COOLING FULLY KICKS IN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ON SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME
WELCOMED DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY...OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD MAINLY JUST
FILTER THE STRONG JUNE SUN. HIGH WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...PERHAPS A TAD WARMER ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH BROAD/WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA...
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS OF SATURDAY TO LINGER
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SAID...CLOUDS WILL BE ON A GENERAL WEST
TO EAST INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT OWING TO BOTH INCREASING WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT...AND THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE
UPPER LAKES. BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...THIS FEATURE MAY BET CLOSE
ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY
WESTWARD...FOR WHICH SOME LOWER-END CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN PLAY.
WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND GENERAL WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN...EXPECT A SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN AVERAGE NIGHT...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S INLAND TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE
LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

ON SUNDAY...THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DECENT SHOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WHICH WILL NOT ONLY HELP BOOST PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BACK UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES...BUT WILL ALSO LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY. COUPLED
WITH ADDITIONAL FORCING SUPPLIED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
NOSE OF A DEVELOPING 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVER
QUEBEC...ALL OF THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WORKING ACROSS OUR REGION. HAVE THUS RAISED
POPS FOR THIS PERIOD UP TO HIGH LIKELY...WITH A ROUGH MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THAT THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIP WILL
COME BETWEEN 12Z-18Z ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...14Z-20Z ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES...AND 16Z-22Z ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. BEHIND
THIS...SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD REDEVELOP
DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER ANY SUCH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLY LESS SYNOPTIC SUPPORT TO WORK
WITH...AND WILL ALSO GREATLY DEPEND UPON THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERING
ENOUGH FOLLOWING THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN
THE ABOVE...HAVE DROPPED POPS BACK TO THE LOWER CHANCE RANGE IN
THE WAKE OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED ROUND OF
CONVECTION.

IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS LOOKS TO REMAIN LIMITED AT BEST
GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WHEN THE MAIN ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY IN
ITS WAKE. THIS SAID...THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER DECENT RAINFALL
LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED PWATS AND AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE FORCING...WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF
SUGGESTING BASIN AVERAGE QPFS OF ANOTHER HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD
LARGELY END DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND AS WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...LEAVING BEHIND WHAT
SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY AND QUIET SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS LIKELY RUNNING A BIT HIGHER DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED
PRECIP ON SUNDAY AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE EXPECTED
FROM A TEMPERATURE PERSPECTIVE...NIGHTTIME LOWS SHOULD RUN A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT/S...WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY START TO THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS OUR STILL-WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AIRMASS IS
SUBJECT TO RENEWED DIURNAL HEATING. THIS SAID...THE COVERAGE OF SUCH
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN GREATLY LIMITED BY THE LACK OF A
SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC-SCALE TRIGGER...AS THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL ZONE
SHOULD REMAIN DRAPED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC. WILL THUS KEEP POPS LOW AND CONFINED TO THE LOW CHANCE
RANGE...WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE TIME. OTHERWISE...MONDAY SHOULD BE A SEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH
850 MB TEMPS OF +11C TO +14C SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BULK OF ANY NOTABLE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO COME
FAIRLY EARLY ON...AS THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE PACKAGES REMAIN IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER TROUGH/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
SAID... MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION OF
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY HAVE AN
INFLUENCE ON THE LOCATION AND DEGREE OF ANY SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH BY EXTENSION WILL INFLUENCE HOW QUICKLY THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH...AND ALSO HOW WET IT MIGHT BE. GIVEN THE
CONTINUED DISCREPANCIES IN THE GUIDANCE...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A
GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE AND WPC SCENARIO...INDICATING BROADBRUSH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT...THEN DIMINISHING
PRECIP POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...HIGH PRESSURE STILL LOOKS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK...BEFORE INCREASING RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH ALLOWS READINGS TO CLIMB BACK TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LINGERING MVFR CIGS WILL ERODE QUITE QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ALL SITES IMPROVING TO VFR. AFTER THIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
CONTROL...WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE SOME FOG IN THE VALLEYS...WITH JHW THE MOST LIKELY TO
BE IMPACTED. IF DRIER AIR BUILDS IN SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT BUF/IAG/ROC TOO...BUT FOR NOW
IT APPEARS DRY AIR WILL GET IN BEFORE FOG DEVELOPS AT THESE SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SHOULD BRING
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IRONDEQUOIT CREEK ON THE EAST SIDE OF
ROCHESTER...THE REST OF AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS HAVE EITHER
RECEDED FROM HIGHS FOLLOWING YESTERDAY/S HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
CASE OF THE FASTER RESPONDING STREAMS OR ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ACTION STAGE IN THE CASE OF THE USUAL SLOWER RESPONDING
STREAMS. AS FOR IRONDEQUOIT CREEK...GAGE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT THE CREEK CRESTED THIS MORNING AND SHOULD DROP TODAY.
INITIALLY THE DROP WILL BE SLOW...BUT THIS SHOULD ACCELERATE THIS
EVENING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL/WOOD