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000
FXUS61 KBUF 031607
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1107 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERING OVERHEAD. A LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO
CONTINUE SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE HILLS
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK
TOWARDS AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS IS ONCE AGAIN UPON US WITH AIR TEMPERATURES
TODAY NOT EXPECTED TO RISE MUCH ABOVE THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
REGIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO ON A
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND. A STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
FLURRIES. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECT
PLENTY OF COLD SUNSHINE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY LINGER IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...TO 10-14F NEAR THE LAKES AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
GENESEE VALLEY. THOUGH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO AROUND -13
(SOUTH) TO -17C (NORTH) THROUGH THE DAY A COLDER LAYER OF AIR
CENTERED AROUND 925 HPA WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE.

OF A CLIMATE NOTE...THE RECORD COLD HIGH FOR TODAY FOR OUR THREE
CLIMATE SITES WERE ALL SET BACK IN THE YEAR 2003...BUFFALO (6F)
ROCHESTER (8F) AND WATERTOWN (2F). DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
LIKELY RISE ABOVE THESE VALUES KEEPING THESE RECORDS SAFE FOR
ANOTHER YEAR. SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS IN THE MONTH OF MARCH ARE VERY
RARE. ONLY 5 TIMES IN BUFFALO...6 TIMES IN ROCHESTER...AND 7 TIMES
IN WATERTOWN HAS A DAY REMAINED IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MONTH
OF MARCH. THESE CITIES...PARTICULARLY BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN MAY HAVE A
SHOT AT REACHING THIS RARE FEAT.

TONIGHT EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO AGAIN REORGANIZE...LARGELY
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS WINDS BACK SOME
WITH THE ONSET OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WITH EVEN LOWER LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS EXPECT
SHALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO ONLY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF FRESH
SNOW IN MOST PERSISTENT BANDS. OUTSIDE OF THESE LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS...SKIES WILL BECOME MAINLY CLEAR.

TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO PLUMMET TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MANY
AREAS TO DROP BELOW 0F...SAVE FOR AREAS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKE
SHORELINE AND UNDER THE CONTINUED LAKE CLOUDINESS. WINDS MAY BE
LIGHT ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE THE WIND CHILLS...THOUGH EVEN WITH A LIGHT
WIND...WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY STILL BE NEEDED FOR THE SAME
AREAS AS THIS MORNING. RECORD LOWS TONIGHT ARE -3/1943
(BUFFALO)...-4/1950 (ROCHESTER) AND -15/1950 (WATERTOWN). FOR BOTH
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER TEMPERATURE RECORDS GO BACK TO 1871...AND
FOR WATERTOWN 1950.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE THERE WILL DEFINITELY BE A WARMING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD...
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL. THAT IS AN INDICATION
OF JUST HOW COLD WE HAVE BEEN AS MANY OF THE DAYS THE PAST WEEK
READINGS HAVE BEEN MORE THAN 20 DEGRES F BELOW NORMAL VALUES. A
LARGE REASON FOR THESE EXTREME TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES HAS BEEN THE
PRESENCE OF A DISPLACED ARCTIC CORE...WHICH CONSISTED OF A LARGE -30
TO -35C AIRMASS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. WE WERE FREQUENTLY TAPPING
INTO THIS FRIGID AIRMASS...WHICH WAS BEING REPLENISHED BY A CROSS
POLAR FLOW...BUT THAT CONNECTION HAS BEEN BROKEN...SO THE CHUNK OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL MODIFY AND DRIFT EAST ACROSS QUEBEC. ACROSS THE
LOWER 48...A LOW AMPLITUDE PACIFIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE.

IN TERMS OF THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS...
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM LAKE NIPIGON TO THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE A
WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL IMPINGE ON OUR REGION FROM PENNSYLVANIA
AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SUBTLETY...AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE
ADDED LIFT FROM ILL DEFINED SHORTWAVES PASSING OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE FIELD WILL BE LIMITED. THIS WILL BOIL
DOWN TO THE CHANCE FOR ONLY A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME
WITH NEGLIGIBLE 36 HOUR ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 OVER THE
WESTERN COUNTIES WITH SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHILE
DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S.

ON THURSDAY...THE INVERTED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN A BIT OVER
OUR REGION WHILE A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL PASS BY TO OUR
NORTH. THIS WILL GENERATE SOME MORE NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS WITH
GENERAL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ELEVATING OUR
TEMPERATURES TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF FREEZING.

A RELATIVELY NARROW WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK ITS WAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SOME
LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT A PACIFIC BASED LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL
GENRALLY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THE BAD NEWS IS THAT THERE WILL BE SEVERAL SHORTWAVE PASSAGES WITHIN
THE NORTHERN BRANCH TO KEEP OUR MERCURY FROM BREAKING THROUGH TO
ABOVE NORMAL TERRITORY. NEVERTHELESS...IT WILL BE VAST IMPROVEMENT
FROM RECENT WEEKS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT OUR REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THEN A
PACIFIC BASED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WHILE ALSO
TEMPORARILY HALTING OUR TREND OF MILDER WEATHER...BUT MAYBE MORE
IMPORTANTLY...WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH AND SERVE AS A CONDUIT FOR
UPCOMING STORM SYSTEMS.

ENERGY EJECTING OUT A DEEP CUT OFF OVER THE SEA OF OKHTOSK WILL
CROSS THE PACIFIC LEDING UP TO THIS PERIOD...AND AS WE WORK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE PACKAGES DIFFER ON THE
THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM THIS POINT THOUGH...WITH DISAGREEMENT ON
WHETHER A SLOWER CUT OFF FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST OR A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EVOLVES. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...CUT OFFS ARE
MORE LIKELY IN THAT AREA OF THE COUNTRY...SO LEAN TOWARDS THAT
SOLUTION SUPPLIED BY THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 15Z LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FALLING SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO ON A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH IFR VSBYS WITHIN HEAVIER
BANDS OF SNOW. CIGS WILL LARGELY REMAIN MVFR TO VFR WITHIN THIS
ACTIVITY. LATER TODAY...WE SHOULD SEE WEAKENING TO THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH JUST FLURRIES REMAINING THROUGH THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHSN EXPECT
VFR UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. TOWARDS EVENING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS WILL AGAIN RE-ENERGIZE...THOUGH WITH A BACKING WIND THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL LARGELY FALL FROM ROCHESTER EASTWARD TO AREAS
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR BUT WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
MVFR/IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS AND WAVES. THEREAFTER RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER
SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...SMITH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH/THOMAS
MARINE...SMITH/THOMAS