Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 010821
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
421 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WITH SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE LINGERING AS LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY TRACKS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND
WARMER...MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 400 AM...RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS IS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY WARM
AIR ADVECTION AS A SW FLOW OVERRUNS A TIGHT 850MB TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT AND TAPS INTO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. RADAR TRENDS ARE FASTER
THAN MOST MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THIS AREA EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AND OUT OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK. LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THIS
REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF FOG ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN IN A MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY. THERE
WILL NOT BE NEARLY THE DYNAMIC FORCING THERE WAS YESTERDAY...WITH
JUST SOME WEAK UPSLOPING SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND WEAK LIFT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION CLOUDY
ALL DAY WITH SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY COOL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JUNE...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S IN MOST AREAS. SOME OF THE HILLS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50.

LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THIS LOW MOVES FURTHER
AWAY...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LINGER MOST OF THE
NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES ALOFT AND MAINTAINS THE INVERSION.
EXPECT DRIZZLE OR SHOWERS TO LINGER SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP MODESTLY DUE TO
THE CLOUD COVER WITH MORE PATCHY FOG ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BRUSHING BY
OUR NORTHERN AREAS. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LINGERING MOISTURE
MAY PRODUCE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL (850 HPA
+3 TO +4C) CREATES STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DIURNALY DRIVEN
INSTABILITY SHOWERS FORM.

TO THE WEST DRIER AIR IS A LITTLE FASTER NOW IN ITS ARRIVAL ACROSS
WNY...SUCH THAT THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
SUNNY. IT WILL STILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S...AND POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER
30S ACROSS THE TRADITIONALLY COLDER SPOTS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

THROUGH THE COURSE OF WEDNESDAY THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR MILDER TO ADVECT NORTHWARD. AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY WE SHOULD BE CLIMBING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN
THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT UNDER SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY
AROUND 70F...AND COMFORTABLY LOW DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
ANCHORED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL PUSH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND
+12C AND CORRESPONDING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS CONTINUED RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO MEAN
INCREASING GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE...AND WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE
FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL LIE TO OUR EAST
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...SUCH THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD
BE ABLE TO BREAK FREE OF ANY CAPPING INVERSIONS. THE LACK OF ANY
DISTINCTIVE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL KEEP WHAT ACTIVE THAT DOES FORM
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE GRIDS.

BY FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE LOW 80S AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH CROSSING FROM CANADA
ACROSS MAINE. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL BACK INTO THE 70S...BUT RETURN FLOW
WILL RECOVER QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 80S.
THERE WILL BE NO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND BRINGS A
MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. FOLLOWING THE MORE PESSIMISTIC HRRR
GUIDANCE...EXPECT IFR OR LOWER CIGS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THIS
MORNING SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE UPSLOPING WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MODESTLY AT JHW/ART
WHERE UPSLOPING WILL NOT BE AS PRONOUNCED.

BY THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT CIGS TO RISE TO MVFR IN MOST LOCATIONS
THOUGH IFR CIGS MAY LINGER IN SPOTS. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER A BIT THIS
EVENING WHEN THE INVERSION LOWERS DUE TO TYPICAL NIGHTTIME COOLING
AND THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND IT WILL LAX TODAY RESULTING IN
DIMINISHING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES TO BE DROPPED AS OUTLINED BELOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IMPRESSIVE STORM TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FROM BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER TO
WATERTOWN. HOWEVER DUE TO THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS LEADING UP TO
THIS RAINFALL MUCH OF THIS RAIN HAS BEEN SOAKED UP RATHER THAN
RUNNING OFF. RAINFALL RATES HAVE ALSO BEEN MODEST. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY SHOULD BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME REPORTS OF MINOR PONDING OF WATER AND LOW-LAND
FLOODING...BUT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED SO THE FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE DROPPED ON THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...CHURCH/THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL



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