Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 261714
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1214 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 305 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Cold front over eastern Nebraska/western Iowa will drop down toward
the I-70 corridor by this evening. A loss of organized convergence
along the front has caused a lot of the shower and thunderstorm
activity to weaken across northern MO early this morning, and this
lack of forcing will continue through the day as the front pushes
south. This combined with only weak/moderate instability and weak
shear will act against widespread organized storms later today,
although the presence of a convective outflow boundary from overnight
storms combined with a lack of convective inhibition and a weak wave
moving out of central KS could still allow scattered convection to
develop across areas from central KS into central MO throughout the
day. Precipitable water values remain high, up to 2 inches, so
locally heavy rain remains a possibility with any storms that
develop. However, the lack of organized forcing and wind shear will
act against widespread storm development so a lot of areas are likely
to miss out on much-needed rainfall with this system.

Despite the passage of the weak cold front today and tonight, 850 hPa
temps will remain near 20 C which will still support highs near 90
degrees both today and Monday. However, by Tuesday an upper level
ridge will deepen to the west, putting the area in northwesterly flow
aloft. This will allow a cooler and drier airmass to settle in from
the north so that highs Tuesday through Friday will only be in the
lower to middle 80s with relatively comfortable dewpoints in the
upper 50s and lower 60s.

Northwest upper flow should support increasing rain chances as early
as Wednesday and Wednesday night and continuing into the weekend as
several embedded disturbances drop into the region. However,
Wednesday`s rain chances continue to shift west due to the presence
of low-level ridging over the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys.
This ridging will shift east later in the week which should allow the
storm track to shift further east into our area.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Cold front is slowing sagging southward across the area with
scattered t-storms developing along and ahead of it. If a t-storm
passes over a terminal...could see vsby briefly dropping to 3SM or
lower. Storms will begin to die off between a 22-23Z time-frame.
Winds will gradually become more easterly overnight but will remain
light as surface high pressure slides into the region.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...PMM



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