Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 121730
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1130 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 354 AM CST SUN NOV 12 2017

Satellite imagery this morning shows a progressive pattern in place
across the Nation with small amplitude troughs noted moving east
through it. This trend looks to continue this coming work week as no
large scale blocking is noted or forecast to develop any time soon.
This will keep temperatures wandering across a seasonally normal
range over the coming week with a couple of chances for
precipitation based on the timing of specific troughs move across
the Plains States.

For today into Monday...a shortwave trough, responsible for the
drizzle foggy weather early this morning, is noted working its way
east across the Plains early this morning. As the trough moves
farther east today it will allow a bit drier air to move in, but
with the cloud cover and north winds lingering well into the day
expect temperatures to remain a bit cool. However, with Saturday`s
drizzle, and clearing clouds expected by tonight, think the
potential for fog --especially across northwest Missouri and
adjacent areas of Kansas-- will be rather good by early Monday
morning.

Focus then turns to Tuesday and the potential for thunderstorms.
Another progressive trough will zip across the Nation early this
work week which will bring frontal boundary sweeping across the
Plains Tuesday into Wednesday. Model timing on where returning Gulf
moisture intersects the sweeping front indicates storms will be
possible across the Lower Missouri River Valley, possibly starting
as early as Tuesday morning with isentropic accent ahead of the
trough inducing more drizzle during the day. However, by that night
the nocturnal jet associated should have little problem liberating a
bit of instability in the environment ahead of the front,
generating a bit of late night thunderstorm activity. That said,
models are having a bit of a time pinning down the timing, with
the GFS offering the slower solution which favors more rain and
storms in west central Missouri compared to the NAM, which favors
more activity across southern and eastern Missouri. And, while
none of the potential activity looks severe in nature, we will
want to watch for the flooding potential as precipitable water
values will be running around 1.2 inches, which is well above
normal for this time of year. GFS solution would be a bit more
favorable for sufficiently heavy rain that may induce a bit of
river flooding.

Second precipitable system to watch for will be quick on the heels of
Tuesday nights, as the progressive pattern persists, bringing a
returning chance for rain from Thursday afternoon through the day
Friday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CST SUN NOV 12 2017

Lower MVFR ceilings are slowly rising and moving to the S-SE with
a distinct clearing on satellite from north to south. All sites
will become VFR in the next few hours as this improving trend
continues. As high pressure and clearing skies move over northern
Missouri tonight the likelihood of fog and lower visibilities will
increase. The main fog bank looks to stay north of the Missouri
River, but could have major IFR to LIFR impacts for MCI and STJ as
the fog bank grows from central Missouri to the west. The
confidence in STJ going below airfield minimums is high, but MCI
will be the on southern end of the fog bank leaving some
uncertainty to how low they will go with IFR visibility currently
in the TAF around sunrise. This could be taken lower if trends
start to move that direction with future forecasts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Barham



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