Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 170919
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
319 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 316 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2017

Areas of light drizzle will continue through the early morning
Tuesday, mostly for areas north of I-70. Residual low-level moisture
from the exiting surface low will not only maintain light drizzle
within the affected areas, but also low level cloud cover through
much of Tuesday morning. Expecting to see low cloud bases slowly
lift with daytime mixing, though sky conditions will remain overcast
through much of the day. Could see a brief period of sunshine just
prior to sunset across eastern Kansas and western Missouri as dry
air begins to filter over the area from the north upstream of the
exiting storm system. With cloud cover remaining firmly in place for
most of the day and weak cold advection in the wake of the departing
surface low, afternoon highs will remain cooler than Monday for most
areas, generally in the upper 30s for northern Missouri with temps
south of I-70 approaching the lower 40s.

Taking a look at the pattern aloft, the local area will be under the
influence of a split pattern through the mid-week. As a weakening
trough pushes into the Ohio River Valley today, mid-level ridging
will build over the Northern Plains. Meanwhile further south, a
deepening upper-level trough is noted across the Baja Peninsula.
This will slowly enter the Central and Southern Plains by Thursday.
These two features will equate to a mid-week warming period courtesy
of the mid-level ridging to the north and a chance of precipitation
by Thursday as the southwestern trough ejects northeast.
Temperatures will remain above normal well into this weekend with
persistent warm advection lasting until early next week. Any
chances of initial precipitation Thursday should be limited to the
eastern CWA, with a thermal profile supportive of all rain. With
that said, better forcing will remain outside of the CWA, thus
precip chances are not overly impressive Thursday into Friday.

A series of upper-level disturbances will bring a better chance for
precipitation late Friday for areas north of the Missouri River
and once more Saturday night through the late weekend across all
areas. Most if not all associated precip will be in the form of
rain during this time given the thermal profiles, even within the
coldest areas of northwest Missouri. This could of course change,
though as of now winter precip and temperatures will remain mostly
on hold through the coming week and into the weekend.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST MON JAN 16 2017

Largely, visibility has improved across terminals with departure
of showers and persistent surface winds AOA 5kts. Radar shows a
few patches of drizzle scattered about, and have accounted for
temporary periods of reduced visibility through 10z. Expect to
see a slow improvement in LIFR/IFR ceilings by late morning into
the afternoon hours, returning to VFR around sunset Tuesday.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Blair


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