Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 191109

609 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014

Issued at 317 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

Quiet weather is expected to continue Saturday as high pressure is
still the main influence on the area. However, upper ridging will
begin to build eastward Sunday which allow temperatures to crank up
across the area. The surface high should have shifted far enough
east that lee troughing will then primarily influence our surface
and low-level weather resulting in south to southwest winds which
will advect much warmer air aloft over the area. 850mb temperatures
in the low to mid 20C range support highs around 90 degrees. The
humidity will likely hold off for another day though until better
moisture makes it northward with the persistent southerly surface
flow. This will set the stage for Monday and Tuesday likely being
some of the hottest days we`ve had so far this summer, both with
temperatures and heat indices.

Tuesday looks to be the hottest day of the two. 850mb temperatures
in the mid to upper 20C range will support highs in the upper 90s.
Dewpoints look to be in the mid 70s and the resultant heat indices
should be in the 100 to 105 degree range. There are some
uncertainties however. The GFS and the ECMWF are in good agreement
with the upper ridge axis nosing right across the forecast area. This
tends to suppress any convection that may form along the surface/low-
level trough axis as it shifts eastward into the area. The GEM
however, has the ridge axis further south and as a result advances
the trough quicker and breaks out convection. The forecast
initialization had much higher PoPs but feel that the GFS and the
ECMWF are handling the ridge and suppression better. So have lower
PoPs to around 25% along the surface trough axis.

A weak cold front will slide into the area behind the surface trough with
high pressure settling over the western Great Lakes Wednesday into
Thursday. This should cool things off, especially for northeastern
Missouri. That cool down should be short-lived as by the end of the
week the heat should return.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 609 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the entire period. Light
southeasterly winds will increase to around 10 to 15 kts from the
south during the afternoon hours. Only scattered mid-level clouds are
expected with some lowering as diurnal cumulus develop during the
afternoon. Skies should become mostly clear tonight with winds
decreasing overnight as well.




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