Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 232355 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
555 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 555 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

00z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 228 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

The main weather concern over the next 36 hours is an approaching
Plains low that will bring some additional snow to the region.
Models keep trending the moisture a little farther west with each
run. Areas along and east of I-29 will see the most at 4 to 6
inches. This system is very similar to the one that passed through
on Thursday in terms of impacts as the winds will again be light as
the snow falls. It is after the snow ends and the system begins to
pull off to the northeast that the winds come into play. Speeds will
increase to 15 to 25 mph late Saturday night, especially along the
Coteau and I-29. This may necessitate a second winter weather
advisory for the region through Sunday as the snow will blow around
and reduce vsby.

Minor warm air advection on Sat night will keep temperatures from
tanking too much in the Missouri River valley. The big question is
how low they will go tonight before the clouds move in and blanket
the area. Expect temps to fall off sharply after sunset with good
snowpack everywhere.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 228 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Mostly dry conditions with highs near to below normal are expected
through the long term portion of the forecast. There is a
significant disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF with a potential
storm system midweek. The GFS is much stronger with the surface low
pressure over the Midwest. The GFS suggests our far eastern CWA
could see a few inches of snow. The ECMWF on the other hand is dry
for our area. The Canadian is generally dry as well, but does bring
a narrow band of WAA snow on Tuesday. Would rather stay dry, but an
in-house blend does give our eastern CWA a slight chance for snow
Wednesday through Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 555 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Another upper level low pressure trough will spread snow across the
region for Saturday. VFR conditions this evening will become
IFR/MVFR later tonight through Saturday morning with ceilings and
vsbys. Two to 5 inches of snowfall is expected.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM CST Saturday for
     SDZ006>008-011-017>023-036-037-048-051.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM CST Saturday for
     MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Mohr


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