Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 240528 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1228 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Issued at 1227 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2016

See updated aviation discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 631 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016

With high pressure over the region, the weather remains quiet. No
major changes planned to the current forecast.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 340 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016

Clouds have departed through the afternoon, with mostly clear skies
over most of the CWA. Still watching a batch of clouds sliding south
across eastern ND which may affect the Coteau region later this
evening. Lows tonight will largely depend on cloud cover, which
looks to affect mainly eastern areas, but the big question is areal
coverage. With a surface high moving in tonight, winds will go light
and temps will drop nicely. Lowered temps away from SuperBlend, more
towards to colder MET guidance. Only thing that may keep temps up
just a tad is the higher dewpoints/higher low level moisture over
the area. This will also lead to some fog potential as well so have
included that in favored areas.

High pressure will move off to the east on Monday, with increasing
southeast winds through the day. Conditions will become breezy/windy
over central SD and have once again raised winds a bit above
SuperBlend. This was a collaborative effort from surroundings

Will then be watching precipitation move into the region on Tuesday
as low pressure ejects into the central Plains. Models continue to
hit the eastern CWA the hardest with shower potential and POPs are
now in the likely category along and east of the James River for
Tuesday afternoon and evening. With upslope flow over the Coteau
during the duration of event, could see higher precip totals in this
region, and models do hint at this.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016

Longer range models support similar output for Wednesday and
Thursday, high pressure building over the region and dry conditions.
Beyond that, forecaster confidence takes a large dive as models
become out-of-sync handling the timing/track of s/ws moving through
upper level steering flow days 5 through 7. Presently, Thursday
looks like the warmest day of the period before a strong cold
front(timed differently in the models) sweeps through the region
turning things markedly colder heading into the front end of the


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2016

Primarily VFR conditions are expected through the period. However,
KABR and KATY may see a brief period of MVFR cigs/vsby early Monday
morning as fog develops. Southeast winds will become breezy near
KMBG and KPIR in the morning.




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