Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 271500
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1000 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

BASED ON LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND REGIONAL RADAR...THREAT
FOR ANY RAIN IN OUR FAR SOUTH APPEARS TO BE DECREASING AND THUS
WILL REMOVE POPS AND GO DRY IN SRN FCST AREA THIS AFTN-TONIGHT.
NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN LOW END PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH AND NORTH AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SD ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ZONE
AND ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF E WYO SHORT WAVE. SOME
WEAKER ECHOES FARTHER NORTH CLIPPING THE THE FAR SW FA HOWEVER
HAVE DOUBTS THAT ANY OF THIS REACHING THE GROUND. HRRR HANDLING
CURRENT CONVECTION WELL AND AS STRONGER CONVECTION OUTRUNS
INSTABILITY AXIS AND LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS
THEY CLIP THE ND/SD BORDER AREA LATER THIS MORNING. BASED ON THIS
SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. COULD
SEE SOME MORE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS NE HOWEVER MOST CAM/SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS
JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER. COOLEST READINGS LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE WITH FAIRLY WARM COLUMN AND
WARMER START TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO AT OR A BIT ABOVE
AVERAGE.

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER
AREA TO NEAR SUX BY FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE NORTHERN FRINGE OF PCPN SHIELD POSSIBLY CLIPPING FAR
SOUTHERN FA SO WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS THERE. WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RECOVERY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER.

LOW PULLS AWAY FRIDAY WITH COLUMN CONTINUING TO WARM. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS S MB FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BRING SOME PCPN
POTENTIAL TO NORTHERN AREAS. LACK OF INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN
EARLY SATURDAY.

COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM SATURDAY SO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH WESTERN AREAS APPROACHING 90.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NRN
PLAINS ALLOWING WARMER TEMPS...MAINLY IN THE 80S...TO REMAIN OVER
THE AREA. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE BY MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROF
BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...BRINGING SW
FLOW ALOFT TO THE AREA. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE FLOW...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO COOL A BIT...TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA
OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER



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