Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 310444
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1144 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Cirrus clouds have thinned out over eastern ND. The 00z GFS
showing all this precip in western/central ND this overnight is
certainly not doing well. So will continue dry fcst the next 48
hrs.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

If we get any stray showers in our far western counties overnight
will be the main forecast issue, then temperatures.

The upper ridge axis will continue to build over the western
Plains, with high pressure over the Red River Valley. There are
some warm air advection showers getting going over western ND. The
warm air advection will shift eastward overnight as high pressure
begins to pull away. However, the best isentropic lift and
elevated instability stay to our west, and none of the models
bring the precip past central ND overnight. Increased clouds a bit
in the west overnight but will keep things dry for now. With the
sfc high further east think that most of the patchy fog
development will stay further east and high res models keep it
mostly out of our counties. Temps should remain cool in the east
with mid to upper 40s but the west should see 50s thanks to
increasing clouds and more wind.

Southeasterly winds will pick up through tomorrow as the next
surface trough develops over the northern Rockies. Increasing
south winds and some clouds in the northwestern counties will be
the main excitement for the day. Highs will top out in the 70s to
low 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Wednesday night through Friday...The GFS breaks out some
precip in the warm air advection late Wednesday night and into
Thursday morning, but is more bullish than any of the other model
solutions. For now will increase clouds in the northern counties,
but will lean towards the drier ECMWF and NAM. Otherwise the end
of the work week will be breezy and warmer with the upper ridge
shifting eastward and a surface trough axis remaining to our west.

Saturday through Tuesday...A more active pattern returns for the
weekend as flow becomes more southwesterly. Will keep the 30-60ish
blended solution POPs for the weekend and early next week as
there should be several rounds of precip as weak shortwaves move
through. Temps on Saturday will be above average but there will be
a cooling trend Sunday through Tuesday as lower thicknesses move
into the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

VFR thru the pd with occasional cirrus. Light winds...mainly
northeast 5 to 8 kts.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...Riddle


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