Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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199
FXUS63 KFGF 221134
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
634 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Adjusted sky grids to match timing trend with current westward
advancing cloud deck. No other changes needed at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Challenge for today will be temps and slight chance for some warm
air advection precip as return flow from departing high pressure
commences across the forecast area. Winds will become breezy
today as SFC high slides across the Great Lakes region and broad
low pressure area develops across the western High Plains
increasing the pressure gradient across the area. Models continue
to show less QPF this aftn with weak WAA. Have maintained some
slight PoPs in the slowly moving across the FA from west to east
today. Thinking most areas will see just a flurry or sprinkle at
best. Mixing under the increasing cloud cover will be limited to
around 925mb with steep inversion. Should see winds steadily
increase to 20 to 25kt sustained for the valley and west with
gusts to around 30kt today.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

By Thursday morning the lead wave with the southwest flow aloft
brings PoPs into eastern North Dakota. With the warming thermal
profile any precip will be liquid with highs reaching into the
mid 40s Thursday. Forcing appears to be strong with 700mb
frontogenesis setting up along a southwest to northeast line.
Placement of the band and its tenth to two tenths of precip
remains in a bit of a flux and will need to be refined as the time
range ahead of the event decreases. Winds to turn to the
northwest and rain shower chances slide off to the south and east
over night Thursday into Friday morning. A few wet snow flakes
will be possible as the column cools Friday morning. Highs Friday
are expected to be near to Thursdays as solar will offset the
cooler temperature column.

Saturday will be dry in the 500 mb ridge north of a large 500 mb low
in Kansas.  The 500 mb low in Kansas will move east and be replaced
by another low.  Meanwhile in our region a 500 mb short wave trough
will move in the northern stream from Montana into south central
Canada.  00z GFS is much more robust with this than the 00z
ECMWF/GEM and attm prefer the less robust pattern.  But still there
will be chances for light rain Sunday, exiting Monday morning.  Rain
amounts quite light...under one tenth and not a significant issue.
Temperatures Saturday to Tuesday will run a tad above normal with
highs mostly 40s and lows 30-35. So overall a pretty good melt
process.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

VFR CIGS expected today with southeast winds sustained in the 17
to 24kt range with gusts around 30kt possible. CIGS to gradually
lower from west to east as mid level cloud deck comes in around
8000ft and lowers to 4000 to 5000kt this afternoon. Wind gustiness
to taper off this evening and sustained to lower overnight. Precip
is expected to remain light with a remote chance at FAR of a brief
RASN observation.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/Riddle
AVIATION...JK



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