Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 261816
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
116 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 116 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Nearly full sunshine has allowed temperatures to climb into the
lower 80s across the north, while areas to the south have had more
clouds and thus cooler temps. With sfc dew points in the 60s
combined with these temps, also seeing some sfc based CAPE
developing along and north of highway 200. Already have some
convective looking clouds stretching along the Canadian border
with some showers too. Even though there is very little shear and
this area is behind the cold front, there could be a showers and
weaker storms. Most of the high res models are showing some
activity now along and north of highway 2. Forecast already had
pcpn chances across the south, so no changes needed there.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

A couple upper waves seen on water vapor imagery will affect the
region today. SFC-mid level convergence/boundary across the
SE ND will remain mostly stationary or drift south a bit through
the day. Forcing from the first wave will set off isolated/scattered
storms this morning...then a break (late morning/early afternoon)...then
more storms with the second wave (mid-late afternoon). All of this
activity will be confined to SE ND and WC MN. Do not expect
strong storms this morning. A marginal risk for severe storms will
exist with the afternoon activity depending on actual instability
(deep layer forcing is weak). Will provide more details as
confidence increases.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Wednesday-Thursday...High pressure will settle across the region
leading to mostly dry weather and seasonable temperatures. There
will remain a slight chance for thunder across the far southern FA
on Wednesday...dependent on the actual position of the low level
boundary.

Friday-Monday...Models in general agreement this run. Friday
looks to be tranquil as sfc high pressure remains in
control...with light winds and pleasant conditions. For Saturday
thru the end of the period...sfc high pressure retreats with
return flow bringing warmer air to the region. Corresponding upper
ridge amplification indicative of return to much warmer
temps...with highs looking to rise into the upper 80s and low 90s.
Showers or storms can not be ruled out through Monday...as a
series of impulses propagate through the flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Ceilings have all been either mid or high level, so no issues
there. Wind speeds have also stayed on the light side, so the
main issue for flying is whether any storms will hit any of the
TAF sites. At this point, KFAR stands the best chance, but even
then it is fairly low. Therefore will just mention VCTS for now at
KFAR.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/Hopkins
AVIATION...Godon


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