Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 181554

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
954 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Issued at 948 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Challenge for today will be how warm will temps rise with full sun
offset by the cold snow pack in place. Will continue to go with
mid to upper 30s as many locations across E ND are already in the
mid to upper 20s as are the forests on MN. Eastern edge of the
valley typically the coldest with the S to SW sfc winds will be
the slowest to warm but still expected to get to the low 30s.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 357 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Split flow continues across North America with the northern stream
mostly over Canada and the southern stream over the states. Upper
level ridge over SASK will shift east and build over central Canada
while an upper low over NM will move northeast and undercut the
ridge and eventually rotate up the west side of the ridge and over
the forecast area by the end of the period.

Model soundings indicate a good inversion through 12Z Sat. The
inversion weakens through the period. Low level moisture increases
Thu afternoon. Will add some drizzle for Thu afternoon.

Satellite fog loop indicated scattered cirrus clouds over northwest
MN. Rest of the area was clear. Surface temps remain in the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 357 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

An initial 500mb low lifts northward through the FA on Saturday and
Sunday. This will be somewhat of a stacked system, with the sfc low
also tracking northward through the FA. There is also a southern
stream 500mb low, so as the northern low lifts into southern Canada,
the moisture should eventually get cut off. Therefore pcpn chances
will slowly end from south to north on Sunday and Sunday night.

More model differences come into play by Monday into Tuesday, but
for the most part this period should remain pcpn free. The 500mb
flow pattern turns to the southwest, as another sfc low organizes
over the central plains. Model consensus for this run tracks this
system into southern Wisconsin Tuesday night, with not as much
effect over this FA. However, this will bear watching with later
model runs. Not seeing too much day to day change in the thermal
pattern, with guidance keeping high temps in the low to mid 30s.
Therefore pcpn type could still be in question during the warm part
of any day when pcpn is expected.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 658 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

VFR conditions were across the area. Satellite loop indicated a
mostly clear sky across the area with cirrus clouds along the
International border. VFR conditions are expected for today and
tonight. MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible Thursday in the
southeast zones as more moisture moves northward.




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