Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 212105

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
305 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Northwest winds continue to decrease this afternoon, and that
trend will continue into tonight. There are a couple of bands of
clouds and flurries, one around Devils Lake and another over
northwest Minnesota. Expect the one over northwest Minnesota to
continue to move eastward, but may linger with a few flurries
through sunset. There has been some steady light snow coming off
the Lake of the Woods into the Baudette area, but that should end
by sunset too.

After that looking for a quiet period until mid Wednesday
morning, when the next band of light snow will begin to move into
the northwest FA. This band of light snow is expected to track
mainly from the northern Red River Valley into northwest
Minnesota, which remains further north of what the models showed
the past few days. This means more snow and less of a freezing
pcpn threat. Not expecting much wind as this moves through, so no
issues from that. If the pcpn moves through quicker than expected,
there would be an even lower freezing pcpn threat. For the past
couple of events, when we have expected a dusting of snow, it has
turned out to be mainly flurries, so leaning at this point to a
lower impact event with this. Not saying there will not be any
mixed pcpn, but the next shifts can take another look at it too.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Thu and Fri...High pressure over the Northern Plains will make
for a quiet and seasonably cold Thanksgiving day. The main
question would be how mild it might get along our border with BIS
as a more SW wind along this area could mix down some of the 850
mb warmth. For post-holiday travel, the main concern is strong
winds and precipitation chances Thursday night through Friday
night. A clipper system is likely to remain north of the
International border during this time dragging a cold front
through the forecast area Fri morning into the early afternoon.
Confidence is high that strong pressure gradient winds and low
level jet will yield breezy conditions Fri, especially afternoon
and early eve after FROPA. Linkage and direction not the best for
higher winds along the valley but better farther west over Devils
Lake and perhaps SE North Dakota. Impacts though will be minimized
by a dearth of pcpn during the time of increased wind speeds.
Milder air (especially as winds go SW to W ahead of front) will
yield a pcpn type of rain with perhaps a change to snow before
ending later east of the valley.

Sat-Tue...Winds will dissipate during Sat as high pressure
begins to build in from Manitoba. Expect colder but near seasonal
weather Saturday and Sunday, behind Friday night`s cold front.
Lows will drop to the teens Sat night, then a bit milder 24 hours
later as return flow kicks in. By Tue, pcpn chances will return as
upper level ridging breaks down in the West and a hybrid
system/upper low heads our way.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1158 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Potentially a few lower ceilings and possible MVFR conditions for
the next few hours at Thief River Falls and Bemidji. A few
flurries are possible with these clouds. Conditions should slowly clear
over northwestern Minnesota later in the afternoon. A few clouds
may move into Devils Lake in the next couple of hours, although
the guidance suggests that they will dissipate before reaching the
area. VFR conditions should prevail over Fargo and Grand Forks.




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