Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 260043

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
643 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

Issued at 643 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

The latest update includes a bit of an increase to snow chances
as well as to snow amount across parts of the area. Radar is
currently showing an area of snow over north central ND. This
area of enhanced lift is due to an upper wave moving through the
region. Looking at frontogenesis, EPV, and Q vectors...a strong
band of snow appears to be likely across Benson/Eddy to northern
Cass County tonight. The 18Z NAM has about 0.15" of liquid in a
band across this area. And with the snow ratios likely around
20:1, could see 3" or so of snow in some areas across this region.
Currently believe less is likely as the band moves to the
Wadena/Park Rapids area. Just outside of the main band, and inch
or so of snow is expected. A second area of snow is expected
across the south...from Forman through Fergus Falls/Elbow Lake to
Wadena. This band will precede the band to the north, possibly
producing an inch or snow of snow before midnight.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

Main impacts in the short term will be quick shot of measurable
snowfall across the region overnight into early Sunday. Shortwave
entering NW ND to swing through the region overnight into Sunday.
Compact surface low associated with the wave will propagate from
West central North Dakota to far SE ND by morning. Respectable
warm air advection ahead of wave, favorable lapse rates and
potential for some f-gen forcing along and north of low track
could result in a band of 1 to possibly 3 inches on snow
overnight. With precipitable H2O values less than a quarter inch
snow amounts greater than 3 inches not anticipated but not out of
the question.  Exact location of snow band will need to be
monitored overnight. Thermal profiles change little and cloud
cover will have some impact on temperatures but should not be too
much different than last several nights.

Snow will be ending from west to east late tonight into early
Sunday. Again with little overall change in thermal profiles
temperatures again should range close to average.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

The broad trof across central NOAM becomes a bit more amplified
during the early part of the work week... with H5 shortwave trof
deepening into the intermountain west on Tuesday... then shifting
across the Northern Plains states by Thursday.

That brings the prospects for some very light snow across the area
on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday... though only trace amounts are
expected. Light north winds should persist... and temperatures will
trend from very near seasonal normals on Tuesday and
a bit below normal by Thursday and Friday. Low temperatures could
dip to a near zero range early Thursday along the CanAm border...and
from 5 to 10 degrees below zero early on Friday...for areas along
and north of U.S. Highway 2.

Long range models indicate that an H5 shortwave ridge is likely to
pass through the area from midday Friday into Saturday... with a
warm frontal boundary passage on Friday, another chance for some
very light snow and a return to a somewhat warmer southerly flow
lasting into Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 529 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

The 00Z TAFs include cigs/vis dropping to MVFR and IFR due to
snow moving through the region tonight. Confidence is high in the
existence of this band. However, it is possible that the heaviest
snow will miss the TAF sites. It looks like the most likely
location for this band is across the central part of eastern ND
and into adjacent areas of MN between 04Z (near DVL) and 14Z.
BJI/GFK/TVF will likely be on the north side of this band and may
miss out on the heavier snow rates. However, FAR may see the
highest rates/lowest cig and vis from this band (or perhaps just
north of FAR into the central Red River Valley). Conditions
improve as this band moves east on Sunday.




SHORT TERM...Voelker
AVIATION...Knutsvig is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.