Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 211506

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1006 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Issued at 1006 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

There seems to have been a little upswing in the convection along
the Canadian border in the past hour or so. Went ahead and
switched the pcpn type to just thunderstorms in this area, as the
lightning activity has also increased. This is in a zone of good
upper level jet dynamics, warm advection, and closer to the short
wave. Extended the mention of pcpn chances across the north for a
few hours longer too, so most areas along the Canadian border will
see pcpn chances thru late morning into the afternoon. There may
be a break by mid to late afternoon, before more activity breaks
out along the cold front. High resolution models break out pcpn
along the cold front in the 4 to 6 pm time frame in the Red River
Valley, then move it eastward into Minnesota and out of the FA by
mid to late evening. Still looking like some strong to severe
storms are possible during this time frame.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Challenges for the short term include rain coverage, severe
potential and temperatures. Uncertainty continues for severe
potential this afternoon. A majority of short range high
resolution and CAM model guidance currently overdoing shower
coverage in warm advection zone ahead of boundary over e Mt.
Degree of development and associated cloud cover will have
implications on severe potential and maximum temperatures this
afternoon. SPC has upgraded to slight risk over the valley and
adjacent areas for this afternoon into the evening. Surface
boundary will reach the western fa at prime heating. Plenty of
shear to work with however still looks like best upper support
will either be along and north of the international border or
south of the fa in the central plains. Will also be some capping
across the far southern fa to overcome during the afternoon.
Convective temperatures do lower into the lower 80s by 00z and an
increasing amount of guidance developing convection along boundary
at this time. Tsra should propagate into western Mn during the
evening hours exiting the fa by midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Will maintain some low pops Thursday however at this point feel
most areas will be dry. Cloud cover will determine temperatures.

Cold front drops through the FA Thursday night with cold advection
continuing Friday. Cannot rule out some showers however main
message will be breezy and cooler with highs only in the 60s and
lows dropping into the 40s for Saturday morning.

Split flow remains across North America with northern stream over
central Canada and southern stream along the northern states. Long
wave trough shifts south along the east side of Hudson Bay through
the period. Long wave ridge over AK will shift to Yukon while long
wave trough over the Gulf of AK will shift into BC. Another long
wave ridge off the Pacific Northwest coast will move into the US
Rockies. Northern stream will become more dominate through Sun then
southern stream ridge will become more dominate late in the period.

The ECMWF was not available this morning. Current model run of the
GFS and the previous ECMWF was doing a better job with the timing of
the short wave in the northern stream

High temperatures decreased one to two degrees for Sat, Sun, and
Mon. Little change to high temps for Tue.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Maintained VFR conditions through the period. Confidence remains
on the low side for convective coverage this afternoon and evening
at any one TAF site. Mentioned vcsh this am and limited late
afternoon VCTS mention to TVF.




SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...JH/Voelker
AVIATION...Voelker is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.