Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 190844
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
344 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

One one day warm up is here. Just how warm is the question, but
blends of various short term guidances indicate 50s up thru Grand
Forks and Thief River Falls with near 60 far south...and 40s in
the the snow cover areas Langdon, Cando, Devils Lake.

925 mb winds are strongest 09z-15z today and seeing that with
south-southeast winds in the 15-25 kt range at 08z. Winds will be
strongest early in the day then diminish midday as the surface
front approaches and then turn westerly in E ND mid to late aftn
behind the front. 850 mb thermal ridge is over the area thru 18z
with 925 mb thermal ridge over the area thru 21z. Thus there will
that period where a favored southwest to west wind will occur this
aftn bringing down warmer temps aloft into the red river valley.

Considerable high and mid level cloudiness will be over the area
today...thickest in the north and thickest this morning. No
precipitation expected as airmass blo 700 mb is quite dry.

west-northwest wind tonight with clearing in the north and some
high and mid level moisture south. temps will settle back below
the freezing mark by 12z mon.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Favored west wind Monday along with some sun should allow temps to
reach the 40s in all but areas north of devils lake despite cooler
925-850 mb temps. Main cold air push southward will occur Monday
night and Tuesday as high pressure drops south into Manitoba with
high temps on Tuesday mid 20s north to mid 30s south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Increasing high clouds and all conditions will remain VFR. Winds
will be the main concern, with some sustained speeds of 15 to 20
kts with gusts over 25 overnight. Winds will be even stronger 2000
ft up so will continue with LLWS mention through the late night
and early morning hours. Winds will decrease down below 15 kts and
begin to shift to the southwest late morning into the afternoon,
then eventually come around to the northwest by the end of the
period.


Wednesday to Saturday...The latter half of the week will see a more
active weather pattern develop with southwesterly 500mb flow aloft
bringing a return of moisture and short wave activity to the
northern plains. SFC high pressure will slide to the southeast on
Wednesday and as it does return flow with 500mb ridging and
increasing temperatures and PWATS will set the stage for a couple
rounds of precipitation. The first will be a light round of rain or
snow on the leading edge of the warmer air Wednesday night. More
widepsread rain is expected during the day Thursday and Thursday
night with short wave energy across the southeastern half of the FA.
The main short wave energy appears to track across the central
plains on Friday, keeping heavy rainfall to the south, with a weaker
northern wave possibly bringing some light snow to the northern
parts of the area. A change in the track of the Friday system is
still possible with a few GEFS plumes bringing the SFC low track
much farther north, which would bring measurable snow to the area.

Temperatures for the period will be near to slightly above normal
with highs generally in the 40s once the colder air on Wednesday,
with highs in the 30s, is replaced.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...JK/Riddle
AVIATION...JR



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