Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 131441
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
941 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

No changes to the going forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Surface ridging will provide generally quiet weather today and
tonight, with not really any impacts expected. Day time
temperature will be cooler than yesterday, but still went a bit
warmer than guidance considering recent model biases and solar
expected. A lead shortwave and associated forcing ahead of the
next upper wave could produce showers late tonight, especially
across northeast North Dakota (925mb temps fall to near 0C by 12z
Saturday just north of the Canada/North Dakota border...might be
some snow mixed in for a bit...but accumulation not expected).

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Saturday...Upper wave across the PAC NW CONUS will propagate into
the great lakes region by Sunday. 00z NAM becomes slower and
deeper than other guidance, and the 00z Canadian is further south
than other guidance. According to the PMDHMD, these are usual
biases. Will follow the 00z ECMWF and 00z GFS solutions, which are
in good agreement. Confidence is slightly above average. Strongest
forcing will be across the SE ND into west central Minnesota
(closer proximity to left exit region of upper jet streak and
potential for enhanced mesoscale forcing), where 0.25 to 0.50 inch
of rainfall expected (with locally higher amounts dependent on
mesoscale forcing). P-type expected to be mainly liquid, although
there is the potential for snow as the rain comes to an end
Saturday night (depending on how quickly the low level colder
airmass advects into the region). Considering the warm ground
temperatures leading into this event, do not expect any snow
accumulation or resultant impacts.

Sunday-Thursday...On Sunday temperatures will be near normal in
and west of the Red River Valley with temperatures a few degrees
cooler east of the Red River Valley. It will be dry during the day
and at night on Sunday as the system will have moved to the east.

Monday through Friday ridging aloft will result in dry weather. Both
high and low temperatures during the work week will be a few degrees
above normal. A short wave over the Canadian Prairies is still in
the forecast for Wednesday. Based on current model guidance this
feature will not result in any precipitation south of the
international border.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

High pressure influencing the region will lead to light winds and
mainly clear sky for much of this period.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...NC/TG
AVIATION...TG



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