Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 241513
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1013 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1013 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Big revision to the forecast this morning, as radar is showing
more of what will evolve today. The band of steady pcpn will fall
mainly along a line from New Rockford to Pembina, staying between
Devils Lake and Grand Forks. Not looking like pcpn amounts will be
as high as expected either, generally they should stay around and
below a quarter of an inch. There has been some light snow or a
mix of rain and snow from Devils Lake to Langdon to Pembina to
Roseau, but it will be brief for the most part. On the western
edge of the band, from just east of Devils Lake to Cavalier, there
could still be some minor snowfall accumulations, around or below
an inch, but not expecting much more than that anymore. Thinking
that if it was night time, there would have been much more snow,
but since this is day hours, it is harder to accumulate snow. Will
not start trimming any counties from the winter weather advisory,
but may start to do that by late morning if current trends hold.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Challenge for today will be SFC low and inverted trough
positioning with the question being where the all snow line
maintains itself in the Devils Lake basin. Will be issuing a
winter weather advisory for the threat of some icy glaze
conditions and accumulating snow across the Devils Lake basin and
into the western portions of Walsh and Pembina Counties.

Satellite imagery this morning is showing the short wave
approaching the high plains with western high plains radars
beginning to some the developing precipitation expected to reach
the western FA by 12Z. This first round of precip may fall as a
mix with SFC temps around 30 in the Devils Lake basin. As the
precipitation lifts north an intensifies accumulating snow is
expected to develop with 3 to 5 inches possible across the
northern portions of Devils Lake basin, with the highest amounts
expected for Towner and Cavalier counties. Higher amounts are
possible in this area and will need to be monitored for updates.

Elsewhere in the warm sector ahead of the inverted trough and SFC
low winds will become southerly with temps lifting into the 60s in
the WCNTRL MN. As the inverted trough swings through the area
this afternoon and evening showers will develop with rain totals
ranging across the southern half of the FA from trace amounts up
to a quarter of an inch with northern valley and NW MN areas
seeing a quarter to three quarters of an inch total.

Precipitation lifts to the northeast this evening into the
overnight. With northerly winds and cloud cover, a cool Tuesday
is setting up as temps struggle to rise with 30s and low 40s.
Next chance of precipitation moves into the south Tuesday night
with some light snow accumulations possible.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

The next 500 mb short wave will move into central/southern Minnesota
Wednesday, spreading precipitation into SE ND and thru most of NW/WC
MN.  Ptype would indicate a chance for some -sn late Wed & Wed eve
especially for areas east of the Red River valley.  This system
departs, though it is noted the 00z Canadian global model wraps up
the low and its it north into NW Ontario and keeps precip in NW MN
into Thursday.  After a little break, next system with chc of rain
arrives for Sunday.  Overall temperatures will remain below normal
thru the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Low pressure system working across the region will bring a wide
array of weather across the area. IFR CIGs expected all day in
DVL and will spread into GFK and TVF this aftn. For FAR and
overnight at BJI MVFR CIGS Are expected to move in. FZRA and or
snow expected this morning at DVL with rain turning to snow at GFK
and TVF after 18z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for
     NDZ006>008-014-015-024-026-028-054.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...Riddle
AVIATION...JK



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