Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 230434
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1134 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Significant winter impacts expected Sunday through Tuesday.
  Heavy snow and gusty winds are expected across much of the
  area. A winter storm watch remains in effect for much of
  eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota and adjacent
  regions.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1021 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

The CU field has dissipated as expected and clear skies are
prevailing. Adjustments were made to reflect these trends,
otherwise the forecast is on track.

Issued at 657 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

A CU field that developed with the cold pool aloft/daytime
heating should quickly erode with sunset (already seeing these
trends) and winds should diminish as surface ridging builds
southeast. The air mass is very cold aloft and with good
radiational conditions we may end up falling closer to the 25th
percentile of guidance for overnight lows (single digits to
near zero). Most areas lack snow pack except in our southeast
where winds may remain around 10 mph and the air mass isn`t
quite as cold. IF we actually had snow pack in our north-
northeast I would be more confident in forecasting negative
temperatures considering this air mass aloft (-12 to -18C at
850 MB).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

A strong upper low is expected to develop heading into
the weekend, and is expected to move very slowly across the region
through Tuesday. Ahead of the low, strong moisture advection will
bring long-fetch gulf moisture into the region. As such, confidence
in the occurrence of heavy snow and blowing/drifting snow has
increased. Blended guidance, as well as deterministic, is in
reasonably close agreement regarding the presence of heavy snow. A
strong pressure gradient will combine with CAA to provide gusty
northeast winds that will gradually shift to the north as this upper
low pushes eastward.

There remains some temporal uncertainty between ensemble members,
but most members show a similar outcome where southeastern North
Dakota, west-central Minnesota, and the southern Red River Valley
have a 70 percent chance of seeing 12 inches or more snowfall along
with gusty winds. The potential to see Blizzard conditions is around
60 percent for the southeastern portions of North Dakota and into
the southern Red River Valley. Further north, Blizzard chances fall
to around 30 percent in the central Red River Valley, with the best
chances occuring Sunday night into Monday.

The greatest uncertainty at this time resides in the northern Red
River Valley and far northeastern Minnesota, where snowfall totals
will be lower. As winds increase out of the north on Monday, any
areas that receive snowfall could see visibility reductions due to
blowing snow. At this time, confidence is rather low regarding
blowing snow potential for the northern Red River Valley.

Lingering impacts are possible heading into Tuesday, but will be
dependent on the speed of the system as it exits the region. The
primary concern during this period would be light snow and patchy
blowing snow. Good lapse rates in the low levels indicate the
potential for isolated to scattered heavier snow showers, which,
when combined with gusty winds, could lead to sharply reduced
visibility at times.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period. Northeast
winds 6-10kt should become light and variable as surface high
pressure moves over the region. Southeast winds 5-11kt develop
during the day Saturday ahead of building low pressure and
5000-8000 FT stratus should build back into the region
southwest to northeast during the afternoon. Aviation impacts
(MVFR ceilings and possible light snow chances) arrive during
the evening across southeast ND. Confidence is high enough for
MVFR cigs at KFAR, but trends are a bit slower on snow chances,
so I kept snow/visibility impacts out of the 06Z TAFs (chances
better after 09Z Sunday morning).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Monday
     evening for NDZ008-016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052-053.
MN...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Tuesday morning
     for MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...DJR


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