Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 191502
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1002 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Have made a couple updates with respect to increasing threat for
a few isolated wind gusts up to 60mph with convection expected
this afternoon and evening. Strong wave apparent on satellite
imagery will continue to track to the SE across S Canada and bring
a focused area of lift. A cool yet unstable airmass will develop
ahead of the wave across the FA today with models suggesting up to
500J/kg of ML CAPE and very high shear values, 60 to 70kts in the
cloud layer. Activity expected to quickly diminish in intensity
late this evening. Best chances for any severe gusts appears to be
across the Devils Lake basin, northern and central Red River
valley communities.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Upper air pattern forecast to become more progressive this period.
Water vapor loop indicated a short wave/jet streak over southeast ND
and was producing showers and isolated thunder over the southeast
zones. Isolated precip will move through the southwest/south zones
this morning.

Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough over northeast ALTA
with a jet on the south side. Upper trough/jet streak will move over
the Red River Valley Mon evening. Slowed down the pops to line up
with the short wave for later this afternoon and tonight.
Precipitable water rises to near an inch for late afternoon/evening
then decreases Tue.

Water vapor loop indicated upper level ridge over the Pacific
Northwest. Upper level ridge forecast to move east over the area and
flatten by Wed morning. Precipitable water rises over an inch by
early Wed.

Upper level trough off the BC coast will move into the Northern
plains/southern Canada Wed night. Cold front moves through Wed.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

We cannot seem to break away from NW flow aloft as next upper low
carves out a trough across the region which continues through the
end of the work week into the upcoming weekend. This will result in
continued below average temperatures with highs from the mid 60s to
the mid 70s and lows from the mid 40s to mid 50s. Main signal for
showers looks to be Saturday however based on model differences
confidence not high.  At any rate heavy rain or severe storms not
anticipated at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

VFR conditions were across the area. Expect clouds to develop
later this morning with insolation for most places. VFR conditions
are expected for today and tonight.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...Voelker
AVIATION...JH



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