Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 181809
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
109 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

PREV FCST HOLDING GOOD AS WINDS INCREASING IN THAT WAHPETON-DVL
ZONE WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. TEMPS RISING RESPECTABLY AS CLOUDS
THIN SOME. INCOMING SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST AS EXPECTED BEST
CHC OF PRECIP TONIGHT NRN FCST AREA AND LAKE OF THE WOODS ON THE
FENCE WITH SOME ICING POTENTIAL BUT SFC TEMPS LOOK AROUND 32-33 SO
ATTM NOT PLANNING ON ADVISORY. BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY.
ALSO WILL WATCH WINDS AS WIND ADV MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FOR LATE
AFTN INTO NRN RRV.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES...WIND TODAY/EVENING AND
PCPN CHANCES/PHASE TONIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL USE MODEL BLEND FOR
FORECAST.

ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL INCREASE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS REGION TODAY. MIXED LAYER DEEPENS TO
AROUND 850MB WITH 30 TO 40KTS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER. STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN FA INTO SE ND SO WILL ISSUE WIND
ADVISORY INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL SEE CLOUDS TODAY HOWEVER WITH
MIXING...WARMER START AND RESPECTABLE WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABLE TO RECOVER CLOSER TO AVERAGE MOST AREAS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING TWO SURFACE LOWS...ONE IN SD
THE OTHER IN SASK EASTWARD AND CONSOLIDATING INTO MAIN LOW NORTH
OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY SAT MORNING. ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL BISECT FA BY MORNING. THIS EVENING LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES TO 50+ KTS WITH BEST CONVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA. PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES INCREASE TO NEARLY
AN INCH. WITH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...SHORT WAVE AND LOW LEVEL JET
CONVERGENCE LOOKS LIKE RESPECTABLE RAIN POTENTIAL AND INCREASED POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG
BOUNDARY MORE UNCERTAIN AS BEST FORCING IS FARTHER NORTH. STILL
UNCERTAIN FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL AS VERY WARM ELEVATED LAYER BUT
WITH STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL JET AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW RUMBLES. MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE MIXED PCPN
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FAR NE. FAVORED GUIDANCE KEEPS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING BUT THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ZR POTENTIAL. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH WIND
SPEEDS THIS EVENING ACROSS SE ND THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET
CRANKS UP. HAVE ADVISORY GOING TO 7PM AND HOPEFULLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THEN. MIXING AND FA IN WARM SECTOR WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT.

COLUMN DRIES FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AS PCPN WINDS DOWN AND
SHOULD CLEAR THE FA TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. COLUMN COOLS SOME
DURING THE DAY HOWEVER WITH SOLAR AND BRISK WESTERLY FLOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

LOOKS LIKE MILDER DAY EASTER SUNDAY WITH WARMING COLUMN AND LIGHT
RETURN FLOW.

MAINTAINED LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SHORT WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS S CANADA.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
00 UTC THURSDAY...DIVERGING THEREAFTER WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT EASTERN PACIFIC SHORTWAVE FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY SKIRT THE CANADIAN BORDER REGION MONDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE REMAIN DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
BOTH DAYS FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SHORT-WAVE MOVES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WINDY
GIVEN TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. SFC LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL ND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS DRY SLOTTING THE REGION... WHEREAS THE
ECMWF IS STILL WET. THIS GFS/DRY ECMWF/WET BIAS CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT AND WRAP UP ACROSS MN
THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS IS SLOWER AND STRONGER AS THE LOW EXITS...BUT THE
ECMWF IS FASTER AND WEAKER. THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR
ALL RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DAILY HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO NEAR
60 DEGREES. WILL KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH THE EVENT GIVEN SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY. ALL SAID...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE ALL BLEND
POPS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES PRECLUDE HIGHER VALUES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014


MAIN CHALLENGE IS WIND SPEED INCREASE AND VARIABILITY DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE TAF COVERAGE PERIOD.  WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO COME
UP AT MOST SITES...BUT FRESHENING HAS BEEN NOTICED THE PAST HOUR AND
GUSTINESS SHOULD KICK IN AS WELL BY MID AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE TO
AFFECT AREAS MOSTLY NORTH OF OUR SITES LATER TONIGHT...INCLUDED
-SHRA EXCEPT FOR KBJI WHERE -RA MENTION IS MORE INDICATIVE OF
BEST AREA FOR STEADIER RAIN.

PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE -RA/-SHRA INTERVALS.
WIND SHIFT TO MORE WSW OCCURS TOWARD END OF PERIOD SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
     026-028-029-038-039-049-052-053.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...ROGERS/VOELKER
AVIATION...WJB






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