Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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199
FXUS63 KFGF 211225
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
625 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 606 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Only changes made to the forecast was to match current winds and
temps as high pressure in control with westerly winds bringing
wind chill values around criteria level of 25 below in E ND. Temps
expected to rebound into the teens for most locales this afternoon
under mostly clear skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 309 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Weather impacts confined to hazardous wind chills this morning as
temperatures are in the single digits below zero. Westerly winds
across eastern North Dakota ranging from 10 to 15mph are creating
wind chills in the 20 to 30 below range. Surface high pressure
will track south of the FA with westerly winds weakening and
turning to the south under mostly clear skies. Temps should rise
into the single digits above across the Devils Lake basin with
mid to upper teens in the eastern and southern zones.

Tonight temperatures should be a bit higher than the previous
night and thus wind chills remain in the 10 to 20 below range,
just warmer than the 25 below criteria for advisory conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Thursday and Friday... Quiet weather and high pressure with near
normal temperatures until the next system approaches on Thursday
afternoon. Recent NAM and CMC runs have been trending this system
farther north. The GFS has been sticking with lower QPF and keeps
snow mostly in northwest Minnesota. This difference is tied to
different evolutions and placements of the surface low. The GFS
keeps this low farther away than the NAM and CMC which leads to the
lower snow totals. CIPS Analogs using the GFS 75th percentile also
suggest that higher snow totals are possible. The best chance for
snow is in northwest Minnesota and southeast North Dakota. There is
potential for banding with NAM having frontogenesis in southeast
North Dakota and west central Minnesota.

Saturday through Tuesday night... The next chance for snow comes
Saturday as a surface low moves into the Midwest. There are a
variety of solutions in the models at this time for this event which
leads to a lot of uncertainty. The GFS takes this low up into
Minnesota which gives the support for snow across eastern North
Dakota and northwest Minnesota. Other models keep this low and its
precipitation farther away. Past this system quiet weather is
expected with near normal temperatures though this period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 606 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Primarily SKC with west winds turning to the south remaining
light.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for NDZ006-007-
     014-015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...JK



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