Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 152320

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
620 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Forecast challenge for tonight will be overnight lows and with
clear skies and winds light by late evening, expect temps to drop
well into the low 40s. Current fcst lows look good and no changes
planned. For tomorrow morning, mid-level cigs around 12K to 15K
expected to enter NW zones by 15Z however will not lower to blo
10K until around 15Z. Will remove the early morning mention of
isolated showers from Devils Lake through Towner County until the
late morning, however even then virga is the more likely scenario
until the column begins to saturate. Afternoon POPs look
reasonable with scattered showers along the intl border.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Minimal weather impacts this evening into Sunday morning as
subsidence behind short in Manitoba and lower Pwats continue to
erode clouds from west to east. Winds will decouple tonight and weak
SFC ridging will slide across the FA. As a result a rather warm
column, especially for mid october, will cool quickly and temps fall
into the 30s north to 40s south under the clear skies. Some possible
ground fog formation is a threat, especially across the north where
HOPWRF members and a few HRRR runs are showing some lowered

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Another seasonably mild mid-October day is on tap for Sunday ahead
of a pronounced shortwave trough that will eject northeastward along
the international border Sunday Night. Strong 850 mb warm advection
and increasing moisture transport will aid in the development of a
band of showers across the area through the day Sunday into Sunday
Night. Will maintain the highest chances over northwest Minnesota
Sunday evening where PWATs are expected to rise to around an inch.
Model soundings indicate up to 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE by Sunday
afternoon/evening. The elevated instability combined with strong
low/mid level warm advection and increasing forcing from the
approaching upper wave suggests the potential for some thunder by
Sunday afternoon/evening, especially east of the RRV.

Not much of a cool down is expected behind this system for Monday,
with highs remaining in the 60s over much of the region. A strong
300 mb zonal jet will progress into the central/northern plains
Mon/Tue, with a few upper level impulses cascading through the flow,
keeping some potential for some showers over the region, especially
across the south. Otherwise, more substantial cooling will occur
beginning Tuesday with persistent low-level cold advection as the
upper flow becomes northwesterly. The coolest days will likely be
during the mid-week period under surface high pressure before a
gradual rebound in temps occurs by late week. Generally quiet
weather is expected for much of the mid-late week time period.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

VFR although modeled winds are a bit lot this evening and will
increase winds above model guidance through 02Z. Mid level cigs
move in during mid-morning hours while SE winds begin to increase
and become gusty in the afternoon hours.




LONG TERM...Makowski
AVIATION...Speicher is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.