Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 131426

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
926 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Issued at 924 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Will let current forecast ride for now. Only issue in the near
term is smoke density. Will limit smoke mention to the morning and
see how things go.

UPDATE Issued at 702 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Short wave moving east into far eastern SD with some high clouds
in SE ND and western MN. These clouds moving east. Otherwise
satellite shows a clear sky west of Grand Forks...but we shall see
how the high level smoke as the sun rises. Overall did increase
sky cover some over MN due to the high clouds. No other changes.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Frontal boundary at 08z along a Roseau-Grand Forks-Valley City
line and slowly sagging southeast. It will stall out nr a
Bemidji-Fergus Falls line late today and remain in that position
into tonight. Eventually enough moisture developing north of the
boundary combined with a weak short wave moving northeast will
cause a few showers or isolated t-storms to develop mainly
overnight along and north of the boundary. Until then for the
daytime today high clouds moving slowly east to the north of a
short wave in South Dakota. A few storms in E SD south of
Aberdeen moving slowly east and will maintain a dry fcst. Issue
cloud cover wise today is degree of haze from the smoke and high
cloud thickness. Smoke forecast indicates thicker smoke holding S
Manitoba into northern into central and western ND. Put in some
smoke in NW fcst area after coord with BIS. Day shift can evaluate
sky cover condition/haze. It will be a warm day, though not as hot
as Tuesday. But still 85 to 90 in many areas...with cooler
readings DVL basin.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Thursday will see a 500 mb short wave move east-northeast along
the ND/SD border and into nrn MN by 00z Fri. Frontal boundary
Bemidji area to near Wahpeton. Near this boundary enough forcing
should case a few storms to form and enough CAPE (1500-2000 j/kg)
so that a few strong storms are psbl. SPC has area near the front
in marginal risk. There is some moisture at 850 mb along the front
in northern MN, centered around Bemidji/Park Rapids. That area
would seem the best chc for isold SVR late Thu aftn/eve. Shear
though is quite weak.

A much stronger short wave and surface low will move northeast
into the southern Red River valley Friday late day/evening. With
this feature I could see a few severe storms south and east of the
sfc low in warm sector in WC MN Fri late day/evening with a more
stratiform rain NW of the low center in central into NE ND. High
pops for precipitation Friday night..then rain chances diminishing
Saturday as the low moves northeast.

For early Sunday, the previous system has exited to the northeast,
but small chances for showers will linger generally along and north
of the US Highway 2 corridor. A cool, dry airmass pushes through
with high pressure behind this system, but cloud cover and a nearby
upper trough will keep highs in the 50s and 60s for Sunday and

For early next week, a deep upper trough digs into the west,
developing southwest flow aloft for the Northern Plains. Model
confidence is quite low for next week`s forecast as the individual
models struggle to realize a few quick moving disturbances aloft. If
these disturbances pass through the forecast area, they would likely
result in some scattered showers, so did leave small chances in.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 702 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

VFR is anticipated thru the the pd. Main issue will be any MVFR
vsbys in haze due to smoke psbl in NE ND (DVL). Winds north up to
10 kts DVL, GFK today L/V FAR/TVF/BJI.




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