Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 241916

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
216 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

A widespread cu field developed this afternoon...and sky trends
will be the primary forecast challenge this evening. A band of
lower stratocu extending from SW Ont through southern MB and up
into NE Sask is beginning to thin out as is evident from lakes
across srn Canada becoming viewable under the thinning low deck
(latest 0.64 micron imagery). Expect this will be the last to
dissipate as the diurnal cu should dissipate by mid evening. To
the far west, starting to see some thin cirrus spill over an
upper ridge along the Sask/Alb provincial border. For the most
part, expecting clearing skies aft midnight (if not sooner) and
more sunshine on Saturday. Combined with light east to southeast
flow, overnight lows should fall into the upper 20s. Areas to the
west of the Red River Valley that received higher rainfall
amounts yesterday and saw some snowmelt today may see some fog
develop in the early morning hours. This looks most promising in
the Sheyenne River and Devils Lake basin areas and west. Increased
solar will allow Saturday highs to climb into the 40s and maybe
50s for much of the region, however snow cover will hinder Towner
county and adjacent areas ability to warm up, with highs right
around 40 .

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Saturday night and Sunday...A shortwave trough coming through the
northern stream will bring a chance for precipitation to the Devils
Lake Basin late Saturday night into Sunday. A southern branch
shortwave coming up through the mid Mississippi Valley could brush
our far southeastern counties with precip, but at this point it
seems that most of the QPF will be to our south and east. With temps
near the freezing mark Sunday morning, it is possible that some
freezing rain or sleet could come down for a brief period, but again
anything mixed will be extremely light and short lived. Temps should
warm quite nicely Sunday afternoon into the 40s and low 50s.

Monday and Tuesday...Brief upper ridging sets up between systems
with surface high pressure over much of the area. The air mass will
stay pretty similar to Sunday and temperatures for the early part of
the work week will be well above seasonal averages.

Wednesday through Friday...The next upper trough begins to move into
the Plains Wednesday, with the northern branch wave approaching the
CWA. Continued to keep some rain across much of the area for
Wednesday and Thursday. Models diverge on Friday with the ECMWF
trying to bring a weak southern branch wave up into our southern
counties, although the 12Z run has backed off on this idea.
Continued to keep the blended solution with some low POPs for the
end of the work week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

MVFR deck over NE NODAK has advected into TVF/GFK/DVL and do not
expect it to push as far south as FAR. IFR at DVL should rise this
afternoon. CU beginning to develop across much of the previously
clear areas and should take a diurnal trend and dissipate early
this evening. Main question becomes how much the stratocu that
pushed in from Winnipeg will dissipate and impact esp DVL/GFK.
Expectation is we will see improvement and clearing by late
evening, with areas to the south and east becoming clear by mid
evening. Wind will become light and fog may become an issue
tomorrow morning, however with east winds not confident enough to
go anything below MVFR and mist.




SHORT TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...Speicher is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.