Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 221601

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1001 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Issued at 1000 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Water vapor loop indicated a short wave over south central ND and
was moving to the east around 25 knots. Radar indicated respectable
returns for Feb over south central and southeast ND. Nose of upper
level jet was located across SD. Tweaked winds and hourly temps for
today. No other changes at this update.

UPDATE Issued at 712 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Slight change in thinking with this forecast update. High
resolution models show the pcpn out in the Minot area starting to
diminish in coverage and intensity, while the area around Bismarck
has been increasing in intensity. This is supported with the best
co-located lift in the mesoscale and synoptic scales over south
central ND this morning, moving eastward through the day. Low
level thermal profiles would support most of this steadier band
staying in liquid form, with a possible mix on its northern
fringe. Therefore, will go ahead and decrease pcpn and snowfall
amounts along and north of highway 2 today to little or nothing.
Other than a few patches of lower visibilities, the fog has
steadily been lifting with the north winds.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

The main forecast challenges are fog and pcpn chances, type, and
amounts. Winds across the northern FA have now taken on more of a
northerly component and have increased to 5 to 10 knots, and this
has allowed the dense fog to break up in most places. However, it
does appear to be moving southward, so expect conditions to
improve across the north and deteriorate across the south early
this morning. Not sure how long the fog will last, so for now will
continue to mention some until mid morning. As far as pcpn, it
seems to be coming out in fairly weak disjointed pieces. So far,
accumulations have been less than 0.01 inches. However, there are
a couple of areas of steadier echoes over western ND that will
probably make it into the FA by morning.

Otherwise the main shortwave appears to be back over eastern MT,
and that will come through this afternoon into the evening. Since
most of this is still coming through during daylight hours, doubt
it will produce much for snow accumulations. Unless it comes down
heavy enough, some will also melt as it falls. Have stuck with the
idea of a dusting for most areas, with up to an inch or so around
Devils Lake. The north winds will continue to shift southward
across the FA ushering in cooler air. The pcpn should shift east
of the FA by mid to late evening. With the cooler air coming
southward today and the north winds remaining in the 5 to 10 mph
range tonight, do not expect fog to become an issue again.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

The next system moving out into the Central and portions of the
Northern Plains later Thursday into Friday will still mainly
affect areas to the south and east of this FA. The 00z models
have trended a little further north with this system, but it still
looks to mainly brush only the southern and southeast FA with
some accumulating snow. With the variability in the track of this
system yet, not high confidence on snowfall amounts in the S and
SE, but at this point it looks like 2 to 5 inches. There could be
some wind associated with this system, which could last into
Friday night.

Models indicate a split jet scenario with the northern stream
cutting a broad upper trof over the region. With the upper
trof...expect cooler temperatures but with values closer to
seasonal norms.

A few upper level disturbances propagating thru the flow late this
weekend will bring slight chances for precipitation...although
amounts are expected to be light at this time.

By Tuesday...another low pressure system is expected to develop over
the central plains with an influx of Gulf moisture streaming north.
There is some uncertainty to the track of the system at this
point...but model guidance indicates better chances for measurable
precipitation over the forecast area. Will continue to follow
guidance and go with a blended soln with respect to POPs for now.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 712 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

The TAFs will be tricky today, trying to stay on top of pcpn
trends and types. Looking like the northern TAF sites will not see
as much pcpn as earlier expected, while KFAR will be in the middle
of it. However, as far as pcpn type, at KFAR it should stay
mainly in liquid form. Otherwise will keep in the lower ceilings
thru most of the day, but they will improve from north to south.
Do not think fog will be a problem tonight with the steady north




LONG TERM...Godon/Hopkins
AVIATION...Godon is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.