Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 080532
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1132 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1132 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

No new updating needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 252 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Clouds and light winds to keep temps up overnight across the area
with lows expected to be in the teens, warmest in the west and south
and cooler in the north and east. Attention Friday turns to the next
clipper system coming down in the meridional flow and its snow and
wind impacts. Ahead of the system westerly SFC winds will again
allow a quick temp rise into the upper 20s and even lower 30s along
the valley and to the west before the cold front pushes through and
winds shift to the north. Strongest forcing remains across the
eastern portions of the FA with an inch or two of snow expected east
of a Roseau to Park Rapids line. Flurries and light snow is expected
along and or in the wake of the cold front with some strong gusts
from the NW. Visibilities may be reduced in areas of snow and
blowing snow Friday afternoon especially where the deeper snow pack
exists and if winds are than stronger than forecast. Behind the
front north to northwest winds 20 to 25mph will have gusts in the 25
to 35mph range.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 252 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Diminishing winds Friday night. Winds turn southwest Saturday
ahead of the next upper level wave which will track a bit more
south and west than the Friday one. More typical clipper type low
track will bring warm advection light snows late Sunday/Sunday
evening across far NE North Dakota and most of NW Minnesota.
GFS/ECWMF indicate best chc of more than 1 inch of snow Hallock-
Thief River Falls-Bemidji axis. Mild on Sunday ahead of this
system with a west wind and 850 mb temps climbing above 0C over E
ND. Cooler weather behind this system and the rest of next week
through Thursday shows a couple of weak short waves in NW flow
aloft moving thru with chance of light snow/flurries at times,
mainly over NW MN. Temps bounce around day to day a bit milder
ahead of these systems and a bit colder behind it. But no bitter
cold air in the fcst and no big storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Ceilings very hard to pick out late this evening, but there are
lower ceilings that are impacting KBJI...and these may back up
into KTVF. Will just have to monitor them overnight. Outside of
these, it should remain VFR at the other TAF sites. Winds should
hold steady into mid Friday morning around 10 knots or so. The
next impulse will drop southward out of Canada by late morning.
This looks to potentially impact all the TAF sites but KDVL. Do
not think this system will bring any snow to KDVL, and despite
winds picking up during the afternoon and early evening, there is
not enough snow on the ground at KDVL to cause any BLSN there.
Otherwise with the increasing winds during the afternoon and
evening, there could be some reduction to vsbys at all the other
TAF sites. However, the greatest impact/lowest vsbys may be at
KTVF. The snow should move out of the area by mid to late Fri
evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...Riddle
AVIATION...Godon



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