Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 011051
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
451 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE IS ALSO NOTED MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS...NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND EVENTUALLY THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES
OUT AT AROUND 80KTS NEAR 25000FT AGL PER 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM
KLBF AND KOAX. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...INCLUDING OUR AREA.
AS A RESULT...BOUNDARY- LAYER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA HAS BECOME
FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN...AND THE SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA SHOULD REMAIN QUASI-ZONAL FOR THE
MOST PART THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A HINT
OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BY SUNRISE MONDAY. AT
THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH CURRENTLY CLEARING OUR AREA SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THUS
ALLOWING FOR MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD
TODAY. THAT SAID...THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT BEFORE
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY.

RADAR DATA FROM KUEX INDICATES ISOLATED SNOW FLURRIES CONTINUE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITHIN AN AXIS OF UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
THERMAL ADVECTION. NOTHING APPRECIABLE WILL RESULT FROM THIS
ACTIVITY...BUT STILL WORTH MENTIONING FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR
A TIME THIS MORNING. THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL KEEP
OUR AREA DRY AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

AN INCREASE IN DIABATIC HEATING FOR SOME PARTS OF THE CWA...WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WORKING IN CONCERT WITH AN INCREASINGLY
DOWN-SLOPING COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD...SHOULD
PROMOTE A WARMER DAY TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. PLAYED
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WHICH PRESENTED HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S
THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP US A TOUCH
WARMER TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING AND AS A
RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

APOLOGIZE FOR BEING LATER THAN USUAL THIS MORNING...BUT NEEDLESS
TO SAY SPEND A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME TRYING TO SORT OUT THE
RATHER-COMPLEX 24 HOURS THAT WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
DAYTIME. NOW THAT THIS TIME-FRAME IS WITHIN 48 HOURS AWAY AND THE
SITUATION IS SLOWLY BECOMING A BIT CLEARER...CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED ENOUGH IN 3 PRIMARY ISSUES THAT THEY HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED AND/OR INTRODUCED TO THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK PRODUCT (HWOGID):

1) ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS STILL FAIRLY HIGH IN SURFACE
TEMPERATURE TRENDS MONDAY NIGHT (AS SOME PLACES COULD ACTUALLY
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING OR RISE ABOVE FREEZING WITH TIME)...COULD
NO LONGER IGNORE THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY WITHIN
NEBRASKA COUNTIES. MEANWHILE...KS ZONES ALONG WITH SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES IN NEBRASKA SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
PRECIP DURING THIS TIME IN NON-FREEZING FORM.

2) OF RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE IS THAT AT LEAST A FEW HOURS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WINDY BEHIND THE SURGING COLD FRONT...AND
NUDGED UP SPEEDS A FEW MORE MPH AND POSSIBLY NOT ENOUGH. AT LEAST
FOR NOW...HAVE MOST AREAS LOOKING AT SUSTAINED 30-35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH MAINLY DURING THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING. IF WE
WERE STILL ISSUING WIND ADVISORIES FOR 30+ MPH SUSTAINED...THIS
WOULD BE ALMOST A SLAM-DUNK SITUATION...BUT THESE DAYS IT SIMPLY
MAKES FOR A VERY WORTHY HWO-MENTION. FORTUNATELY...HIGH WIND
WARNING CRITERIA OF SUSTAINED 40+ MPH STILL APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY
OUT OF REACH.

3) IN TANDEM WITH NUMBER 2...THE PREVIOUS DAY SHIFT FORECASTER
FULLY ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WIND AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW (MAINLY PRIOR TO NOON) COULD CREATE AT LEAST
SOME BRIEF VISIBILITY/TRAVEL ISSUES ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
COUNTIES. COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HOWEVER...THESE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING FORECASTED SNOW AMOUNTS WERE KNOCKED
DOWN A BIT...AND AM NOW GENERALLY CALLING FOR LITTLE TO NOTHING
(MAYBE UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH) SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...UP
TO ONLY AROUND 1 INCH NORTH OF NEB HIGHWAY 92. OF COURSE...THERE
IS STILL TIME FOR THESE AMOUNTS TO UNDERGO MODEST RAISING/LOWERING
SO STAY TUNED.

AS IF THE AFOREMENTIONED 3 MAIN POINTS WEREN`T ENOUGH TO PONDER
FOR MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...THIS IS ALSO A MUCH-TOUGHER-THAN-
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AT THE DAY 2-3 TIME RANGE...GIVEN
THAT SOME AREAS COULD ACTUALLY SEE READINGS RISE MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE CRASHING HARD TUESDAY BEHIND THE STRONG FRONT. IN MOST
PLACES...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO DIFFER BY A FEW
DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. FALLING TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE PRETTY
MUCH A GIVEN...SO DO NOT BE "FOOLED" BY THE FORECASTED HIGHS
THEMSELVES AS MOST PLACES WILL REALIZE THESE VALUES PRIOR TO
NOON...WITH AT LEAST 10-15 DEGREE FALLS LIKELY THEREAFTER THROUGH
SUNSET.

TEMPERATURES: MOVING ON TO SOME MORE POSITIVE NEWS FOR NOT ONLY
THIS FORECASTER BUT ALSO MOST OF THE PUBLIC AS A WHOLE...THE
ENTIRE WEDNESDAY- SATURDAY TIME FRAME STILL CARRIES A RATHER HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF BEING PRECIPITATION-FREE ALONG WITH A NOTICEABLE
WARMING TREND. IN FACT...HIGH TEMPS WERE GENERALLY NUDGED UP 2-3
DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ON MOST OF THESE DAYS...AND VERY
POSSIBLY NOT ENOUGH ESPECIALLY THURSDAY ONWARD. ALTHOUGH
TECHNICALLY TUESDAY MAY FEATURE THE COLDEST AFTERNOON OF THE WEEK
THANKS TO THE FALLING TEMPS AND STRONG WIND...WEDNESDAY WON/T BE
MUCH BETTER WITH HIGHS IN MOST AREAS AIMED SOMEWHERE IN THE 20S.
HOWEVER...A STEADY IMPROVEMENT THEN TAKES PLACE WITH THURSDAY
HIGHS AIMED INTO THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...FOLLOWED BY UPPER 40S-MID 50S ON BOTH FRIDAY-SATURDAY.
ALTHOUGH FAR...FAR TOO SOON TO GET CONCERNED ABOUT...DEPENDING ON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WIND SPEEDS WE MAY EVEN HAVE TO ADDRESS
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER PARAMETERS LATER THIS WEEK...ESPECIALLY
IN THE TYPICALLY-FAVORED SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. GETTING BACK TO
THE COLDER EARLY-MID WEEK TIME FRAME...BOTH TUESDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING ARE
FORECAST TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA...BUT FORTUNATELY THIS LATEST FORECAST KEEPS EVEN FAR
NORTHERN AREAS 7+ DEGREES SHY OF WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DIGGING MORE INTO THE DETAILS IN 12-48 HOUR BLOCKS:

MONDAY DAYTIME: WITH THE LOCAL AREA LARGELY REMAINING DOWNSTREAM
OF MUCH APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA
SHOULD BE PRECIP-FREE THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME. HOWEVER...WITH A
MODEST WING OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT PASSING OVER MAINLY
NEBRASKA ZONES MAINLY DURING THE MORNING...OPTED TO KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW GOING. ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD LIKELY BE A
DUSTING AT BEST. REALLY THE BIGGEST DAYTIME STORY MIGHT BE
INCREASING SOUTH WIND...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS CLIMBING INTO THE
20-25 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE SOUTH WINDS COULD HELP
RAISE TEMPS MORE THAN ADVERTISED...BUT FOR NOW MADE LITTLE CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS...CALLING FOR HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S MOST
AREAS.

MONDAY NIGHT: AS COVERED EXTENSIVELY ABOVE...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING A FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL-BUT-BREEZY NIGHT FOR
MOST AREAS...COULD NO LONGER IGNORE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE GIVEN THAT LOW-LEVEL STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT/SATURATION IS PROGGED TO OVERTAKE THE AREA IN
FAVORABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW. ANY LIGHT ICING WILL BE FULLY DEPENDENT
ON SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH FOR MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD HOVER A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING EARLY IN THE NIGHT...WITH MODEST
RISES POSSIBLE LATE THAT COULD END ANY LIGHT ICING CONCERNS. VERY
LATE IN THE NIGHT...COULD SEE THE BEGINNING STAGES OF LIGHT SNOW
INFILTRATE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THIS SHOULD PRIMARILY BE A
TUESDAY DAYTIME ISSUE.

TUESDAY DAYTIME: ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT IN FULL AGREEMENT ON COLD
FRONT TIMING...EXPECT THE STRONG FRONT TO START RACING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA ALREADY BY SUNRISE...AS A FAIRLY
STRONG SURFACE LOW AROUND 999MB SCOOTS EASTWARD ALONG THE NEB/KS
BORDER. AS COVERED MORE EXTENSIVELY ABOVE...LOOK FOR SEVERAL HOURS
OF QUITE-STRONG NORTH WIND...POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LINGERING DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SNOW...WITH
THE BEST SNOW POTENTIAL WITHIN THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE CWA WHERE
POPS ARE AS HIGH AS 60 PERCENT "LIKELY". BY THE AFTERNOON ANY
PRECIP SHOULD EITHER BE OVER WITH OR SIMPLY A FEW LINGERING
FLURRIES. TEMPS FALLING STEADILY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
FOLLOWING EARLY HIGHS AIMED FROM UPPER 20S FAR NORTH TO LOW 40S
FAR SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT: WHILE NOT LOOKING LIKE A "MAJOR DEAL"...THE PASSING
OF THE PRIMARY LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AXIS COULD PROMOTE ONE MORE
QUICK ROUND OF SNOW...AND FOR NOW HAVE SIMPLY BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT
POPS ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN CWA.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY NIGHT: A PRECIP-FREE FORECAST RETURNS
FOR THESE 48 HOURS AS FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
AS THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK PASSES WELL TO
THE EAST. AS ALREADY COVERED ABOVE...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND AT LEAST
10-15 DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY.

FRIDAY DAYTIME-SATURDAY DAYTIME: THESE LAST 36 HOURS CONTINUE A
REASONABLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF STAYING DRY...WITH EVEN HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN FINALLY SEEING TEMPS RISE BACK ABOVE NORMAL/AVERAGE
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE. HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS PRELIMINARILY
AIMED INTO THE UPPER 40S-MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A PERIODIC MVFR CEILING.

HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR 15000FT AGL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. OCCASIONAL STRATUS NEAR 2000FT AGL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
THE PROBABILITY OF THIS STRATUS MATERIALIZING IS TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED FROM
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BRYANT


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