Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 312001
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
301 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THERE ARE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID
60S. BEHIND THE FRONT THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT THERE WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST MUCAPE
HAS BEEN IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A CAP
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. AS MIDNIGHT APPROACHES THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START
TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.

LATE TONIGHT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AND WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL SEE VARYING WEATHER FROM COOL/WARM AND
WET/DRY. BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH A JET STREAK AND AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION PRIMARILY DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT.  MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AS
THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BUT INSTABILITY IS WEAKER...RANGING
FROM JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG IN OUR WESTERN ZONES UP TO
POSSIBILITY AROUND 1000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURE TREND UP ON TUESDAY AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE.  THE LLVL JET IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
40 TO 50KTS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT STORMS
MAY REDEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF THE JET ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST
ZONES...BUT WITH ACTIVITY ON THE EDGE OF OUR CWA PLAN TO JUST GO
WITH SILENT POPS FOR NOW AND MONITOR.

FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST REGION AND THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
HEIGHT RISES/RIDGING EXPANDING NORTH.  DAYTIME TEMPS CONTINUE TO
WARM IN THIS REGIME WITH H85 TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 20S
CELSIUS AND RESULTANT AFTN TEMPS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 80S TO
MID 90S.  ANOTHER COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY AS LATE AS THURSDAY NIGHT
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.  GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING WILL NOT
DEVIATE FROM THE EXTENDED INIT AND CURRENT FORECAST WITH CHCS FOR
STORMS RETURNING THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SETTLE
FROM EASTERN NEB TO WESTERN KS ON FRIDAY WITH FRONT FOCUSING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.  WITH TIME THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH INTO KANSAS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE FORECAST DRYING OUT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AS A COOL 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH FM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SETTLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  IN THE
COOLER...DRIER AIRMASS TEMPS WILL TREND MORE FALL LIKE WITH HIGHS IN
THE AVERAGING IN THE 70S AND LOWS AVERAGING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS TIMING THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCES WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...JCB


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