Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 041745
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1145 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1145 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Vis satellite shows an appreciable swath of snow cover over the SE
1/2 of the fcst area. And based on the 2-4" reports we received in
some locations...believe this will hold temps down. So used
weighted consensus of the best 3-verifying guidance packages to
lower high temps in this area today.

Snowmelt is in progress.

Am not thinking much in the way of fog developing tonight over
the moist ground where snow melts today. S-SSW winds advecting
in drier air should off-set BL moistening just enough. We see the
12Z MOS drops winds off just after sunset at HJH. Fog potential
will need to be watched.

Some preliminary assessments of expectations aloft are included
below. Much more later.

No big changes expected from previous fcst thinking on potential
snow next week. Please see our Situation Report on the front of
our website for a look at our current thinking. Map included.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Aloft: Heights were rising in the wake of the departing shortwave
trof that brought the snow to the area yesterday. Heights were
already falling over the Pac NW. This was the leading edge of the
blast of bitter arctic cold on the way. A low- amplitude shortwave
ridge will move thru tonight with SW flow developing tomorrow as
strengthening shortwave trof swings out of the Nrn Rockies and
into the Dakotas by evening. This trof will effectively carve out
the longwave trof that will deliver the arctic cold.


.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Aloft: A low-amplitude shortwave trof will move thru Tue within
the larger broad trof. A shortwave trof and strong 130 kt jet
streak will be diving down the backside of the trof. The flow will
become increasingly cyclonic until this trof moves thru KS Wed
afternoon/ eve. The flow will turn NW in its wake Thu-Fri with
gradually rising heights...and Fri it will turn anticyclonic until
a low-amplitude ridge is fcst to move thru Fri night. Low
amplitude will prevail Sat- Sun with the next shortwave trof fcst
to come out of the Pac NW and arrive here Sat.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Monday)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Significant Wx: LLWS 06Z-12Z tonight.

This Afternoon: VFR SKC. W winds under 10 kts will gradually
become SW. Confidence: High

Tonight: VFR with increasing mid-lvl clouds after 06Z. 10-12K ft
CIGs should arrive by 09Z. LLWS develops around 06Z. SSW winds
6-13 kts. Confidence: High

Mon thru 18Z: VFR CIGs around 12K ft. SW winds around 10 kts.
Confidence: High

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Kelley
SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Kelley



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