Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 200919
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
419 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

BESIDES ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...A RATHER QUIET SHORT TERM IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE LOCAL TODAY/TONIGHT...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY CALM WIND SPEEDS. HIGHS TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S TO UPPER 70S...AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S TO UPPER 40S. TO PUT THESE TEMPERATURES
INTO PERSPECTIVE...NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE TRI-CITIES RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S...WHILE LOWS RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
OVERALL...WE WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE
MID 70S. MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY...WITH A NOTABLE EXCEPTION
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STILL BE LOCATED OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA WHILE A SFC TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. A SOUTH WIND WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PLAINS SFC
TROUGH AND WILL PUMP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE PLAINS. WE
WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS RISE FROM AROUND 40 AT DAYBREAK TO THE 50S
BY EVENING...WHICH WILL NOT BE A BIG DEAL ON TUESDAY BUT WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR THE EXPECTED RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AND WITH THE SOUTH WIND
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. SOME MODELS INDICATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW STRATUS DECK JUST OFF TO THE WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...AND WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POSSIBILITY AS
LOW CLOUDS WOULD IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES IF A STRATUS DECK WOULD
HAPPEN TO ADVECT INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH MOVING ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT
TRACKS ACROSS OUR AREA. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...GENERAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE COMMON. ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF RAIN REMAIN HIGH...FORECAST
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS SOME IN RECENT MODEL
RUNS. WHERE EARLIER FORECAST RUNS INDICATED THAT THE AVERAGE
RAINFALL TOTAL WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WOULD BE BETWEEN 0.50
AND 0.75 INCHES...THE MOST RECENT FORECAST RUNS ARE NOW LOOKING MORE
LIKE 0.25 TO 0.50. WITH SEVERAL DAYS LEFT UNTIL THE SYSTEM GETS
HERE...EXPECT CONTINUED VARIATION IN THE FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH THE RAIN PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
PLAINS RESULTING IN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT OUR
AREA UNTIL SOMETIME THE FOLLOWING WEEK JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. AS A RESULT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINAL SITES THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...GUERRERO



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