Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 210523
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1223 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

OTHER THAN KEEPING AN EYE ON THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA IN NORTH CENTRAL
KS FOR THE SLIM POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG THUNDERSTORM STILL FIRING
UP YET THIS AFTERNOON...THIS TRULY IS LOOKING LIKE A SEASONABLY
PLEASANT UPCOMING 24 HOURS. BEYOND LATE THIS AFTERNOON...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE VIRTUALLY A LOCK CWA-WIDE...AND ALTHOUGH SUNDAY
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...STILL
VERY SEASONABLY PLEASANT.

AS BRIEFLY RECAPPED IN THE EARLIER UPDATE DISCUSSION...THE
POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING PRECIPITATION EPISODE
ENDING BEING A BIG DUD (FOR LACK OF A MORE FORMAL TERM) ACROSS THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA...WITH THE MAIN EXCEPTION CONSISTING OF A
NARROW RIBBON OF AT LEAST 0.50-1.00 INCH THAT FELL OVERNIGHT
MAINLY IN THE FAR NORTHEAST AREAS OF NORTHERN NANCE/NORTHEAST POLK
COUNTIES. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS SO FAR...IT HAS BEEN DRY
CWA-WIDE AS ALL REGIONAL CONVECTION (SOME EVEN STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE) HAS REMAINED SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE LOCAL DOMAIN
WITHIN SOUTHEAST NEB/NORTHEAST KS.

TURNING TO THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 1930Z/230PM...NEARLY CLOUD-FREE
SKIES DOMINATE OUR NEBRASKA CWA...WHILE A BATCH OF LOW-MID LEVEL
STRATOCUMULUS PUNCTUATES PARTS OF OUR KS CWA...WITH THIS CLOUD
LINE ESSENTIALLY DEFINING THE FAR NORTHWEST EXTENT OF ANY
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL YET TODAY. TURNING TO THE BIG PICTURE OF THE
MID-UPPER LEVELS PER WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL
DATA...THE LOCAL AREA RESIDES UNDER MODESTLY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT FLOWING BETWEEN A LARGE SCALE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHEAST
CANADA TROUGH AND A BLOCKING RIDGE/HIGH EXTENDING NORTH-NORTHWEST
FROM MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. WEST OF THIS
RIDGE...A CLOSED LOW CHURNS JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CAL COAST.
CLOSER TO HOME ON THE REGIONAL SCALE...TWO PRIMARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ARE NOTED...ONE DEPARTING EASTWARD ACROSS IA AND ANOTHER
MORE VIGOROUS WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN ND. AT THE
SURFACE...THE LEADING EDGES OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WEST
CENTRAL KS INTO CENTRAL IA HAVE REACHED/CLEARED ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN EDGES OF THE CWA...WITH SOME VARIATION OF NORTHERLY
BREEZES IN ITS WAKE. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE WORKED OUT VERY WELL
TODAY...WITH MOST PLACES LIKELY TO TOP OUT IN THE 83-87 RANGE.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN A BIT LOWER THAN ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WELL DOWN INTO THE LOW-MID 50S WHILE 60S ARE HOLDING ON AT
LEAST A BIT LONGER IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE AND STARTING WITH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH 23Z/6PM...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS IN THE CLEAR
FROM ANY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION MAINLY IN OUR 3 SOUTHERN-MOST
NORTH CENTRAL KS COUNTIES JUST IN CASE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE IS ABLE TO OVERCOME WEAK CAPPING. ALTHOUGH NEARLY ALL
COMPUTER MODELS...INCLUDING DETERMINISTIC AND HIGHER-RES ARE
QUITE INSISTENT THAT EVEN THESE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES ARE LIKELY
GOING TO REMAIN STORM-FREE...THIS AREA WILL NEED MONITORED JUST IN
CASE AS THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF A STRONG STORM GIVEN
MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG BUT ONLY FAIRLY
WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 25KT. WITH EACH PASSING HOUR
THOUGH...THE RISK AND AREAL COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE...AND BARRING UNEXPECTED
CHANGES...ALL MENTIONABLE STORM CHANCES DROP FROM THE FORECAST AT
6PM.

FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT BEYOND 6 PM...HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH A FEW MODELS (NAMELY THE GFS) SUGGEST THAT A
FEW STORMS COULD COME RELATIVELY CLOSE (WITHIN 30-50 MILES) OF
FLIRTING WITH OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN EDGES. HOWEVER...THE LATEST
RAP13 HOURLY INSTABILITY PROGS CLEARLY SHOW THAT EVEN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY VACATING/PUSHING SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN CWA WITH TIME. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE...THE
VIGOROUS WAVE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN SD WILL STREAK SOUTHEAST INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA. MEANWHILE...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER MY/WY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST TOWARD
WESTERN NEB. WITH THE LOCAL AREA POSITIONED SOUTHEAST OF THIS
RIDGE AXIS...OVERNIGHT BREEZES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE 5-10 MPH
FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH. SKIES SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN CLEAR...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS COULD OCCUR LATE IN THE NIGHT MAINLY OVER
WESTERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH THE LIGHT BUT STEADY BREEZES SHOULD
PRECLUDE IDEAL COOLING CONDITIONS...STILL FELT JUSTIFIED IN
NUDGING DOWN LOW TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FCST ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...NOW AIMING FROM GENERALLY
LOW 50S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH...AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW UPPER 40S
MAINLY IN THE VALLEY/DAWSON COUNTY CORRIDOR.

FOR SUNDAY DAYTIME...ESSENTIALLY ZERO RISK OF PRECIP CWA-
WIDE...AS SKIES OVER MOST OF THE CWA AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY
SUNNY...ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHTLY GREATER MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER
MAINLY CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEB/NORTHWEST KS COULD BRING A PERIOD
OF MORE-SO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO OUR WESTERN CWA. IN THE MID-
UPPER LEVELS...THE ROCKIES RIDGE WILL START GETTING SQUASHED DOWN
A BIT AS THE PACIFIC COAST LOW MIGRATES EAST-NORTHEAST TO
NORTHERN NV BY LATE IN THE DAY. MEANWHILE JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA...A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE MEAN TROUGH FROM MN INTO EASTERN
IA...BUT ANY MEANINGFUL INFLUENCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD
REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE CWA. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE
AXIS WILL CONTINUE SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY...WITH
ITS AXIS CENTERED FROM NORTHERN KS INTO THE DAKOTAS/WESTERN MN BY
DAYS END. NORTHERLY SURFACE BREEZES WILL PICK UP A BIT MAINLY IN
EASTERN ZONES AS DIURNAL MIXING DEEPENS...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 10
MPH IN WESTERN ZONES TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS IN
EASTERN ZONES. BY LATE AFTERNOON THOUGH ANY LINGERING GUSTINESS
SHOULD ABATE. DESPITE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE...TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY THANKS TO COOLER LOW-
LEVEL AIR SETTLING IN BEHIND THE OVERNIGHT WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRONT. MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HIGH TEMPS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA BETWEEN 72-77...LOWEST
NORTHEAST AND WARMEST SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

OVERVIEW...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY PLEASANT AND GENERALLY AVERAGE
OUT IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA GRADUALLY ALLOWING FOR STRENGTHENING RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE TRACKING EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER LOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
MOST OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SMALL CHANCE OF OUR FAR WESTERN
ZONES SEEING SOME PRECIPITATION PRIOR TO 7 PM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL REALLY INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
(ECMWF...GFS...NAM...CANADIAN GEM) IN THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TRACKING
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. INSTABILITY WILL
BE VERY LIMITED AND THUS AM NOT EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT
THIS POINT IN TIME. RATHER...IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT THIS WILL
BE A GOOD GENERAL RAIN WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED NON SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DUE TO THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MAY
ACTUALLY STALL OUT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
WEAKER BY THIS PERIOD. THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE
AROUND AND THUS WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE SLIGHT POPS...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION. HIGHS WILL
MODERATE A FEW DEGREES WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN ALLOWING HIGHS BACK
INTO THE MID 70S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER SHORT WAVE MAY STILL BE HANGING
AROUND THE AREA BUT SHOULD HAVE WRUNG ITSELF OUT BY THAT POINT AND
THUS WILL BE CALLING FOR A DRY END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THE GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE UPPER 70S. A
STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
AND MAY EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA BEYOND THE END OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH VIRTUALLY
CLOUD FREE SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AS AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA TRANSITIONS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE...SETTING INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ROSSI



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