Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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856
FXUS63 KGID 032017
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
317 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIODS REMAIN QUIET WITH RISING
HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS...WHILE UPPER RIDGING
EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. UPPER LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES WILL TRANSLATE TO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY SETTING
UP AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LOW TO THE WEST IN THE PACIFIC. OUR REGION WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH A CONTINUATION OF
DRY/MILD CONDITIONS.

MODELS ARE ADVECTING IN DRIER DPS TONIGHT AND TWEAKED DOWN LOW TEMPS
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S STILL LOOK ON TRACK. AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OF
LIGHT WINDS...DEEPER MIXING IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY...JUST ABOVE
H85...WITH NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND WEEKEND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

STARTING OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WED NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WED NIGHT...SHOWING WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL N/NWRLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WED NIGHT...WITH RIDGING OVER
THE ROCKIES SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST AND JUST OFF THE COAST OF CA. THROUGH THE REST OF THIS TIME
FRAME...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST AS THE WRN LOW MOVES
ONTO THE SRN CA COAST...SET UP RIGHT THROUGH THE HEART OF THE PLAINS
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...STARTING OFF LIGHT/VARIABLE
WITH A WEAKER PATTERN IN PLACE...SRLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WRN GULF COAST REGION. FRIDAY MAY BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT...WITH SPEEDS
ARND 15 TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...STILL
LOOKING AT HIGHS CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE AS A WARMER
AIR MASS BUILDS IN WITH THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH LOWER/MID 80S
FOR FRIDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN
COMES UNDER INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THAT WRN UPPER LOW...AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST. BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY...MODEL REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING THE MAIN
SYSTEM HAVING SHIFTED A BIT EAST INTO ROUGHLY THE CA/NZ/AZ BORDER
AREA. THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...THE GRADUAL EASTWARD
MOVEMENT CONTINUES...THOUGH MODELS DIFFER JUST A BIT WITH HOW FAR
EAST IT GETS. IS IT AS FAR AS THE PANHANDLE OF NEB...OR STILL MAINLY
OVER WY/CO...WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND. PART OF THE REASON FOR THE
SLOWER SHIFT IS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY
AREA SWINGING S/SE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT AS WE GET
INTO SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...IT LOSES ITS UPPER LEVEL PUSH AND WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN CO...WILL START HEADING BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. HOW THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY /ALONG WITH DRY LINE
PLACEMENT/ MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN WEATHER
ACROSS OUR CWA...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. TOO
MANY DETAILS YET TO BE IRONED OUT AT THIS POINT TO GET INTO
SPECIFICS WITH WHEN/WHERE...BUT IT IS A PERIOD TO MONITOR.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND POTENTIAL ON GOING
PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...BUT
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 70-80 FOR SAT AND MID 60S/LOW 70S FOR
SUN.

MON/TUES...PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...AS MODELS
SHOW THIS LOW AND THE LOBES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT NOT EXACTLY
BEING ON THE SPEEDY SIDE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS. POPS ARE
LOWER IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS ON THE
LOWER SIDE. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS ARE IN THE 60S/70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...FAY



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