Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 231719
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1219 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

DESPITE NOT BEING IN AN OFFICIAL STORM PREDICTION CENTER SLIGHT
RISK AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS (AT LEAST YET)...WHAT 24 HOURS
AGO LOOKED LIKE A POTENTIALLY FAIRLY QUIET WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT PERIOD HAS ALREADY BECOME ACTIVE IN WESTERN ZONES EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THERE IS AT LEAST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BECOME
ACTIVE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT GENERALLY WITHIN THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF
THE CWA. THESE TYPE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETUPS ARE
NOTORIOUS FOR PROVIDING SURPRISES...SO ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY OF
STORMS THIS MORNING WAS NOT WELL-ANTICIPATED...WE HAD AT LEAST
BEEN CARRYING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT DESPITE THE
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS EARLY MORNING TIME FRAME
AS DISCUSSED HERE 24 HOURS AGO.

AS OF THIS WRITING...VIGOROUS SEVERE HAILERS WITH ONE REPORT UP TO
BASEBALL SIZE ARE ONGOING IN THE FURNAS-FRANKLIN COUNTY AREA OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA HAS
REMAINED STORM-FREE OVERNIGHT. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE
STRONG/EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM/ANTICYCLONE IS ANCHORED OVER
THE HEART OF COLORADO WITH A CENTRAL CORE AROUND 600
DECAMETERS...WHILE THE LOCAL AREA HAS ASSUMED INCREASINGLY NORTH-
NORTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT WHICH OBVIOUSLY CONTAINS AT LEAST
SUBTLE...HARD TO PINPOINT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES. AS BEST AS CAN
BE SURMISED...THE VIGOROUS ELEVATED STORM DEVELOPMENT TOOK PLACE
ALONG A FAIRLY SUBTLE ZONE OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT/THETA-
CONVERGENCE EVIDENT AROUND 700MB OR THE 315K ISENTROPIC
SURFACE...IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY AT LEAST 1500 J/KG OF
CAPE IN THE 850-700MB LAYER AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 30-35KT COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN NEB HAS PROVIDED LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST BREEZES OVERNIGHT
ON THE ORDER OF 5-10 MPH...AND LOW TEMPS ARE ON TRACK TO BOTTOM
OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE 60S IN MOST AREAS...AND MAYBE AROUND 70
SOUTH.

LOOKING FORWARD FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...UNFORTUNATELY CONFIDENCE IN THESE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
ESPECIALLY IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH...AS MUCH LIKE 24 HOURS AGO SOME
MODELS ARE CLUELESS TO ONGOING ACTIVITY WHILE OTHERS HAVE SOMEWHAT
OF A HANDLE. LEANING MORE TOWARD THE HIGHER-RES/SHORTER TERM
SOLUTION OF MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR/RAP13...GENERALLY THE
SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRONE TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG-SEVERE STORMS THROUGH AT LEAST THE 12Z-15Z/7-10
AM TIME FRAME...WHILE THE CENTRAL/NORTHEAST AREAS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN STORM-FREE OUTSIDE THE SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT IN THE
WEST. ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL STORM ACTIVITY RIDING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE BLACK HILLS REGION COULD CLIP OUR
WESTERN ZONES AS WELL IN A FEW MORE HOURS. ALTHOUGH ITS NO
GUARANTEE TO STAY THIS WAY...HAVE AT LEAST FOR NOW MAINTAINED A
PRECIP-FREE FORECAST FROM THE MID-MORNING HOURS ONWARD CWA-WIDE
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MAJORITY OF MODEL DATA...AND WHAT
SHOULD BE THE SOUTHWARD EXIT OF THE MAIN RESPONSIBLE DISTURBANCE.
THAT BEING SAID...AT LEAST WEAK SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED IN MAINLY IN NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH A LATER
PORTION OF THE DAY PER SOME SOLUTIONS. OTHERWISE...BREEZES TODAY
WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 MPH. TEMP-
WISE...THE BIG STORY IS THAT TODAY SHOULD BE THE OVERALL-COOLEST
DAY OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE CWA...AND MAYBE EVEN SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN FORECAST IF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND LONGER
OR IS MORE WIDESPREAD. FOR NOW THOUGH...MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS AIMING FOR MID 80S NORTHEAST TO MAINLY LOW AND ISOLATED
MID-90S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

TURNING TO THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THERE IS OVERALL LITTLE-CHANGE
IN THE BIG PICTURE ALOFT...AS THE EXPANSIVE HIGH CONTINUES
SPINNING OVER COLORADO ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY EDGES SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. THIS LEAVES FAIRLY SHARP NORTH-
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA...WHILE THE NEXT
POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES SPREADS EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF NEB OUT OF THE BLACK HILLS REGION.
AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS NOT HIGH...BUT THE GENERAL
EXPECTATION IS THAT FAIRLY PRONOUNCED ISENTROPIC LIFT AS EVIDENCED
ON THE 315K ISENTROPIC SURFACE AND ALSO ALONG THE EASTERN NOSE OF
VEERING 35-45KT LOW LEVEL JET EVIDENT AT 850 MILLIBARS WILL
PROMOTE POTENTIALLY FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY IN
NORTH CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB...BUT VERY POSSIBLY AFFECTING MAINLY THE
NORTHEAST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE LOCAL AREA AS WELL. GIVEN THE 06Z NAM
DEPICTING ELEVATED CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2500+ J/KG SHIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE PRESENCE OF AT LEAST 30-35KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE HAILERS SEEMS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...BECAUSE SOME MODELS INSIST THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS AT
LEAST SLIGHTLY NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE/COVERAGE WITHIN THE CWA IS NOT HIGH AND THUS HAVE ONLY
INTRODUCED SLIGHT 20 POPS TO THE PREVIOUSLY-DRY OVERNIGHT
FORECAST. IF TRENDS HOLD AND STORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS MORE CERTAIN
IN NORTHEAST AREAS OVERNIGHT...WOULD NOT BE ONE BIT SURPRISED TO
SEE SPC INTRODUCE A FORMAL SLIGHT RISK AREA IN LATER DAY 1
OUTLOOKS...OR AT THE VERY LEAST TOKEN 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS.
OTHERWISE TONIGHT...ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE
CWA TO REMAIN STORM-FREE INCLUDING KS ZONES. TEMP-WISE...AGAIN
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO LOWS...CALLING FOR A MID 60S TO UPPER 60S
RANGE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

REMNANT CONVECTION MAY LINGER ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP AGAIN AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
DEPARTS EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ONTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND WILL RESULT IN HOT TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE CENTURY MARK AND HEAT INDICES IN THE WEST ARE FORECAST
NEAR OR ABOVE 100F.  FARTHER EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
MORE SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 80S. A PROGRESSING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND A SFC TROUGH...COMBINED WITH INTENSE HEATING MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A STORM TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST THURSDAY AND MOVE INTO
OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS DEAMPLIFIES FRIDAY AS ENERGY TRANSLATES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ADVANCES SOUTH WITH THE HOTTEST AIR SETTLING INTO KANSAS WHERE HEAT
INDICES OF 100 TO 105 ARE POSSIBLE. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY ALTHOUGH AS COOLER AIR SETTLES IN SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND TEMPS COOL ALOFT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME CHANCE
FOR A STORM BUT THIS CAN BE REFINED WITH TIME.  ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
MADE TO THE EXTENDED INIT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH A BASE NEAR 15000FT AGL...WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE SURFACE WIND WILL
REMAIN FROM THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST...SUSTAINED AT 6-10KTS UNTIL 16Z
THURSDAY...BUT INTENSIFYING TO AROUND 17KTS AND GUSTING TO AROUND
24KTS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT GRI 06-12Z TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME THE
PROBABILITY OF SUCH ACTIVITY BEING REALIZED IS TOO LOW FOR
INTRODUCTION INTO THE TAF. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...BRYANT



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