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000
FXUS63 KGID 081721
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1121 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

THIS WILL MAINLY BE A TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM.

ALTHOUGH THERE WAS SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE REPORTED IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS OVERNIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THIS HAS WANED OR ENDED.
NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SHOULD BE VERY SHORT-LIVED AS
WELL.

A SIZABLE POSITIVELY-TILTED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS NOT MAKING ITS WAY EAST OF THE CWA
UNTIL POSSIBLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
IT SEEMS THAT BCCONSRAW WILL BE A GENERALLY GOOD BET TO FOLLOW
CLOSER TO AS WE ARE A DAY OUT FROM A COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND HAS BEEN
A GOOD PERFORMER LATELY. THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT...HOWEVER
MEAGER...REMAINS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH OF THE CWA AND NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. SKY COVER SHOULD DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE TROUGH
AXIS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

ALOFT: AN ANTICYCLONIC WAVE-BREAKING EVENT IS UNDERWAY AND WILL
RESULT IN THE WRN USA RIDGE FOLDING OVER WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
BREAKING OFF FROM THE FLOW. THIS WILL HAPPEN AGAIN NEXT WEEK...BUT
THE UPPER LOWS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FCST AREA.
THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL DICTATE OUR WX AND THAT MEANS NW
FLOW SUN...FOLLOWED BY THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING THRU MON-MON NIGHT. A
PIECE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF THAT MOVES IN OFF THE PACIFIC MON WILL
MOVE THRU HERE TUE NIGHT. THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES MAY CONTRIBUTE
ANOTHER TROF WED PER THE EC/GEM. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ARRIVES THU
BEFORE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES THRU THU NIGHT. NW FLOW OCCURS IN
ITS WAKE FRI.

AS FAR AS THE OVERALL PATTERN...WE WILL TRY TO ADD SOMETHING LATER
THIS MORNING.

SURFACE: THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A PAIR OF LOWS
TRACKING E ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER SUN-MON. THE SECOND OF THESE
LOWS WILL DRAG THE LEE TROF THRU SUN NIGHT WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A
WINDSHIFT. THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWS TUE MORNING. WHILE WE EXPECT A
SUBSTANTIAL COOLDOWN...THE AIR MASS IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. SO TEMPS
SHOULD ONLY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN WED AND DROPS
INTO THE SRN PLAINS THU. MEANWHILE...THE NEXT LOW WILL RACE ACROSS
CANADA. ITS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE HERE ON FRI.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS FCST IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

SUN: SUNNY AND WONDERFULLY WARM BUT BREEZY...ESPECIALLY OVER S-CNTRL
NEB. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN HOW WINDY IT COULD BE. THIS
PRESENTS A PROBLEM BECAUSE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. SEE
FIRE WX SECTION BELOW. HIGHS 65-71F. THIS IS 20F ABOVE NORMAL.

USING GRI AS A PROXY FOR THE FCST AREA...THE WARMEST DAYS THIS YEAR
ARE AS FOLLOWS:

66 ON FEB 18TH
68 ON JAN 19TH

WE ARE LIKELY TO BEAT THOSE NUMBERS SUN AND MON!

MON: THE BEST DAY OF THIS FCST WHICH GOES THRU FRI 3/14. PARTLY
SUNNY AND VERY WARM. PROBABLY THE WARMEST DAY SO FAR THIS YEAR AT
MOST LOCATIONS. PLENTY OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY HOLD TEMPS
DOWN FROM THEIR MAX POTENTIAL. GFS CROSS SECTIONS ARE MUCH HEAVIER
WITH THE RH THAN THE EC/NAM/GEM.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN SUN.

TUE: MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A SLIM CHANCE OF RAIN. USE
OUR TEMPS WITH CAUTION AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MY FEAR IS THEY ARE TOO
WARM BY SEVERAL DEGS. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW LOW CLOUDS INVADING IN
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR AT MIDNIGHT WITH
FALLING TEMPS DURING THE DAY.

WINDY AND COOLER. N WINDS GUST 30-40 MPH.

THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE EC CAME IN CONSIDERABLY WEAKER WITH THE LOW
HEADING INTO THE TN VALLEY...BUT THE PRES GRADIENT WILL STILL BE
STRONG.

THE LOW CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONT INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH THE THERMAL
PROFILE COOL ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. THIS IS
"IF" ANY PRECIP OCCURS AT ALL.

QPF: FOR TUE-TUE NIGHT THE MODELS ARE NOT BULLISH ON ANY MEANINGFUL
PRECIP. WHILE THERE ARE A FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT OUTPUT .10"
THE PROBABILITY IS NOT EVEN 20% FOR THAT AMOUNT. THE EC ENSEMBLES
HAVE THE PROBABILITY UP TO 40%. EITHER WAY WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT
MUCH.

WED: SUNNY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS /45-50F/. BREEZY IN THE MORNING
BUT DECREASING WINDS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.

THU: BACK INTO THE 50S IN THE WARM SECTOR.

THU NIGHT: WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE CORE OF THE COOLEST AIR
MISSES AND STAYS TO THE N.

FRI: ANOTHER SUNNY WARM DAY.

553 AM UPDATE:

PATTERN: THE THEME CONTINUES THE SAME AS MOST OF THE WINTER
WITH A WRN N AMERICA RIDGE AND AND ERN TROF THRU 9 DAYS /MAR 16/.
BY LATE NEXT WEEK THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUES TO SHOW A PATTERN
CHANGE WITH A RIDGE REPLACING THE TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE NE
PACIFIC. THIS WILL FORCE THE LONGWAVE TROF TO RETROGRADE BACK INTO
THE WRN USA. UNTIL THIS OCCURS...TEMPS WILL AVERAGE WARMER THAN
NORMAL WITH DRIER THAN NORMAL WX. IN THE 10-15 DAY PERIOD...ODDS
WILL INCREASE FOR LEE CYCLOGENESIS FOLLOWED BY MORE COLD. THE WX
COULD DEFINITELY BE INTERESTING FOR THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

OTHER THAN A LITTLE CIRRUS MOVING THROUGH SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING AS A
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 411 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

A FIRE WX WATCH WAS SERIOUSLY CONTEMPLATED FOR SUN FOR THE COUNTIES
ALONG AND W OF HWY 183. SUNDAY HAS VERY LOW RH WRITTEN ALL OVER IT.
MODEL DEWPOINTS WERE DEPLORABLE...BUT USED THE 00Z 4KM NAM-ARW AS A
STARTING POINT AND TRENDED IT DOWN USING THE MIX-DOWN TOOL FROM 800
MB. FCST SOUNDINGS HAVE A STRONG SIGNAL. THE MIN RH BELOW 20% IS A
SLAM-DUNK...BUT WINDS OVER THESE WRN COUNTIES LOOK MARGINAL...
ESPECIALLY OVER FURNAS-HARLAN-PHILLIPS-ROOKS COUNTIES. MODELS DO
HAVE A 30-35 KT 850 JET MAX OF 30-35 KTS ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR. SO
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN EVENTUALLY NEEDING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
COUNTIES W-NW OF THE TRI-CITIES. COORDINATED WITH SPC/LBF/GLD.
PLEASE SEE THE DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOK. WE ARE IN AN ELEVATED RISK.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB 554
AVIATION...JCB
FIRE WEATHER...HALBLAUB