


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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616 FXUS63 KGID 112122 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 422 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated thunderstorm chances this evening, with more widespread showers and storms tonight into Saturday morning. A few storms could become strong to marginally severe. - Cooler and pleasant on Saturday. Warming up Sunday/Monday, but still dry. - Thunderstorm chances return to the area Tuesday-Thursday of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Skies have cleared across much of the area (except for southeastern parts of the area), allowing temperatures to reach the 80s in most spots. Visible satellite shows developing cumulus in the vicinity of a cold front slowly pushing across the Sandhills. CAMs keep any development along this boundary relatively isolated, and weak shear should keep updrafts disorganized and short-lived. Nevertheless, if storms materialize this evening, one or two could produce some isolated hail/gusty wind (primarily northwest of a line from Lexington to Columbus). Further west, more widespread convection will develop over WY/CO in response to the upper shortwave. This activity is then anticipated to move into central Nebraska/Kansas after midnight. Increased shear should sustain these storms into Saturday morning, but the question is how intense they will remain as instability decreases. As such, the western half of the area has the best chance to see severe hail/wind, and SPC has trimmed out the Marginal risk to be primarily from Highway 281 westward. Some showers/storms may linger in southern parts of the area past sunrise Saturday morning, then skies will slowly clear through the morning and afternoon on Saturday. The post-frontal airmass will feature cooler temperatures, less humidity, and pretty light winds. A very comfortable day for mid July! Sunday and Monday trend warmer as ridging moves into the central/northern Plains. Heat index values return to the mid to upper 90s by Monday. Thunderstorm chances return to the area on Tuesday as the next upper shortwave and surface front move into the area. Machine- learning severe probabilities are not overly impressive (5-10%), but there is at least some risk for severe weather in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Lingering MVFR ceilings should clear out of GRI within the next 1-2 hours, with VFR conditions expected through the rest of the afternoon. Low chances for thunderstorms arrive this evening, with better chances arriving late tonight. As these storms depart, MVFR ceilings are favored through around sunrise on Saturday (50-60% chance). Winds remain out of the north through the period. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...Mangels