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000
FXUS63 KGID 040602
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1202 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013

THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN WITHDRAWN
FROM THE FCST. THE 12Z/18Z AND EVEN 00Z MODELS ARE OVERDONE ON
THEIR .01" 6-HOUR QPF ENDING AT 06Z. THE ONLY SNOW IS OCCURRING
FAR INTO THE SANDHILLS /N AND W OF A THEDFORD-AINSWORTH LINE/. THE
12Z WRF-ARW SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY HAS A GREAT HANDLE ON WHAT HAS
TRANSPIRED THRU THE EVENING AND IT KEEPS THE NW FRINGE OF THE FCST
AREA DRY. SO UNLESS SOMETHING OCCURS THAT IS NOT FORESEEN...THIS
IS ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINTS.
FCST WINDS WERE LOWERED USING THE CONSENSUS OF 04Z SHORT-TERM
MODELS. LOWS WERE RAISED A COUPLE DEGREES DUE TO POOR RADIATING
CONDITIONS/CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

COLD AIR HAS STARTED TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY FALL THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS REALIZED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. WHILE VERY COLD AIR IS ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH
THICK CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH...TO THE MIDDLE 20S ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...DESPITE -10C (OR COLDER) AIR AT 850MB MOVING
IN ALOFT. WHILE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
5-10 DEGREES BELOW THIS MORNINGS LOWS...EXPECT THE STRONG SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS TO MAKE IT
FEEL MUCH COLDER...WITH WIND CHILL READINGS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT AS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN CONCERT WITH SOME
VERY WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. WHILE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...BROUGHT THE CHANCE OF
FLURRIES TO NEAR THE NE/KS STATE LINES OVERNIGHT...AS THERE IS SOME
INDICATION SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP COULD MAKE IT THAT FAR SOUTH IN
12Z GUIDANCE. THAT SAID...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80...WITH ONLY A DUSTING (IF THAT) EXPECTED NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE. OTHER QUESTION IS THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE
AN ELEVATED DRY LAYER BETWEEN 700-800MB...MODEST BULK SHEAR VALUES
AND A SATURATED PROFILE BELOW 800MB. THAT SAID...THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES OF TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD
NEAR THE GROUND...AND OPTED TO KEEP ANY MENTION OF LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE OUT OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THIS DEPRESSION AND DEPTH OF COLD
LAYER.

AS WE THEN TRANSITION INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES
TO CONTINUE AS PRECIP CHANCES WANE...WITH CONTINUED BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS MAKING FOR A COOL AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

AS HAS BEEN WELL-ADVERTISED...WE ARE ABOUT TO ENTER A RATHER
NOTABLE STRETCH OF EARLY-METEOROLOGICAL-WINTER CHILL. FOR AT LEAST
A 6-DAY STRETCH FROM THURSDAY-TUESDAY...DAILY HIGHS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY TOP OUT BETWEEN 15-25
DEGREES. PLEASE REFER TO THE SEPARATE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE TIDBITS ON THE UPCOMING COLD SPECIFICALLY FOR GRAND
ISLAND...OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITE. PRECIPITATION- WISE...THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NEBRASKA COUNTIES...WILL BE LUCKY
TO SEE MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES DURING THE WEDNESDAY EVENING-
THURSDAY EVENING TIME FRAME...WITH MAYBE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR A VERY LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW IN KS ZONES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
HWY 24...BUT EVEN THIS IS FAR FROM LIKELY. LOOKING AHEAD A FEW
DAYS...IT STILL APPEARS THE SATURDAY EVENING-SUNDAY EVENING TIME
FRAME WILL BE BY FAR THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH THIS EVENT STILL BEING 4-5 DAYS
AWAY...ITS TOO SOON TO TALK ACCUMULATIONS WITH ANY REAL
CONFIDENCE...AND THUS WILL OMIT FROM THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
FOR NOW...BUT MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT SOMETHING IN THE 1-2+ INCH
RANGE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

GETTING INTO MORE DETAIL AND STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...THE BIG PICTURE ALOFT PER VARIOUS 12Z/18Z MODELS
INCLUDING THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF HIGHLIGHTS A BROAD TROUGH ENVELOPING
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CONUS...WITH THE CENTER OF THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH GENERALLY ANCHORED NEAR THE ND/MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN
BORDER AREA. WITHIN THE PARENT TROUGH...A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
WILL TRACK FROM THE DAKOTAS TOWARD WI/LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AS A FAIRLY STOUT 140+KT SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER JET STREAK
SLICES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES-GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY
15-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS 25-30 MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA. THESE WINDS WILL BE DRIVEN BY CONTINUED
COLD ADVECTION WITHIN AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1036
MILLIBAR HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A DEEPENING
GREAT LAKES LOW DOWN TO AROUND 992MB BY SUNRISE THURSDAY.
PRECIPITATION-WISE...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT THE ENTIRE CWA
GETS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A ROGUE FLURRY...BUT
MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST CORRIDOR OF MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/SATURATION WILL SET UP MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST 1/2
OF THE CWA UNDERNEATH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER JET. ALTHOUGH
DETERMINISTIC MODEL QPFS VARY FROM ESSENTIALLY NOTHING AT
ALL...UP TO MAYBE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF DRY SNOW DURING THE
EVENING...OPTED TO KEEP ANY SLIGHT MEASURABLE POP GENERALLY SOUTH
OF AN ALMA-GENEVA LINE...WITH A BUFFER ZONE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FLURRIES EXTENDING FARTHER NORTH TOWARD I-80. THIS MAY VERY WELL
BE OVERKILL...AS THE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 12Z 4K WRF-NMM
SHOWS ESSENTIALLY NOTHING OVER THE AREA. AFTER MIDNIGHT...DROPPED
ANY RISK OF MEASURABLE SNOW...BUT MAINTAINED SOME FLURRIES IN KS
ZONES AS THE BAND OF MID LEVEL SATURATION SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE OBVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED IN THE
SOUTHEAST...ONE UNKNOWN IS WHETHER OR NOT TRANSIENT BATCHES OF LOWER
STRATUS COULD ALSO LINGER FARTHER NORTHWEST. IF SO...TEMPS WITHIN
THE STRATUS LAYER COULD DROP INTO THE DENDRITIC ZONE OF -12 TO
-18C AND CREATE SOME SPONTANEOUS FLURRIES IF YOU WILL...BUT AT
LEAST FOR NOW WILL FOCUS ANY WEDNESDAY NIGHT LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY
MENTION IN SOUTHEAST ZONES ONLY. FOR LOW TEMPS...GIVEN DECENT WIND
SPEEDS AND POSSIBILITY FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS...OPTED TO ACTUALLY
NUDGE UP LOWS SLIGHTLY AND KEEP THEM 4-6 DEGREES A 12Z MET/MAV
GUIDANCE BLEND...AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM AROUND 4-14 FROM
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURS
MORNING...AT LEAST SLIGHTLY SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY CWA-
WIDE...WITH AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6 MOST PRONE FOR VALUES
IN THE -10 TO -15 RANGE...AND MAYBE EVEN SLIGHTLY COLDER UP AROUND
ORD. HOWEVER...THIS STILL FALLS A BIT SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA
OF -20.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AND INCREASINGLY-
COLD LOW LEVEL AIR CONTINUES DOMINATE ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS. IN TERMS OF SMALLER SCALE FORCING...MODELS EJECT A FAIRLY
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY
UPPER JET STREAK SETS UP JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
WHILE LEFT THURSDAY MORNING VOID OF ALL PRECIP MENTION...OPTED TO
BRING A MIX OF A SLIGHT MEASURABLE SNOW/SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES
INTO KS ZONES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...JUST IN
CASE THE LOCAL AREA REALIZES THE FAR NORTHERN FRINGES OF WHAT
SHOULD BE A MORE WIDESPREAD/MORE LIKELY SNOW EVENT AFFECTING THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF KS AND ESPECIALLY OK. AGAIN...AT MOST A LIGHT
DUSTING IS EXPECTED LOCALLY WITHIN KS ZONES...AND MAINTAINED A
SNOW/FLURRY-FREE FORECAST POST-MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD COVER
REMAINS FAIRLY LOW DURING THIS TIME. TEMP-WISE...ONLY MADE MINOR
TWEAKS TO THURSDAY HIGHS...BUT DIDN/T GO QUITE AS COLD AS 12Z MAV
GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED A BIT OVERDONE. THUS HAVE AIMED A RANGE FROM
13-22 FROM NORTH-SOUTH...AND ON THURS NIGHT NUDGED UP LOWS
SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS...BUT STILL WELL DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO MOST ALL AREAS. BREEZES THURS/THURS NIGHT WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG AS WED/WED NIGHT...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS AT LEAST 10-15
MPH WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY...AND THEN CLOSER TO 10 MPH
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH WILL AGAIN PROMOTE WIND CHILL READING
DOWN INTO THE -10 TO -15 RANGE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA LATE THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AM.

FRIDAY DAYTIME THROUGH SATURDAY DAYTIME...KEPT THE FORECAST VOID
OF ANY PRECIP MENTION...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
WESTERN ZONES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN CASE THE LEADING EDGES OF
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WORK INTO THE AREA. IN THE BIG PICTURE...THE
LOCAL AREA GENERALLY REMAINS IN BETWEEN DISTURBANCES DURING THIS
TIME...AS ONE WAVE DEPARTS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...WHILE
AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AT THE
SURFACE...BREEZES FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND NORTHERLY...AND
THEN TURN EASTERLY IN THE WAKE OF A RIDGE AXIS PASSING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO FRIDAY HIGH TEMPS...WITH
NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA ONLY CLIMBING BETWEEN 12-19. THEN FRIDAY
NIGHT COULD BE THE OVERALL COLDEST NIGHT YET THIS SEASON...AND
HAVE LOWS ONLY BETWEEN 0-5 IN MOST AREAS...AND SLIGHTLY SUB-ZERO
FAR NORTH.

SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS IS BY FAR THE BEST
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE USUAL TIMING/SPATIAL COVERAGE UNCERTAINTIES THIS FAR OUT HAVE
KEPT POPS RATHER MODEST ONLY IN THE 30-40 RANGE. IN THE BIG
PICTURE...SOME PHASING TAKES PLACE BETWEEN THE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. THE NET
RESULT IS A PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT MAINLY SAT NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY MORE IN THE WAY OF FOCUSED SYNOPTIC FORCING ON SUNDAY...BEFORE
THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
FORTUNATELY...THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK TO ENTRAIN SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE AND IT IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...AND AS EARLIER STATED ITS
TOO SOON TO TALK SNOW AMOUNTS WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE...BUT PARTS OF
THE AREA COULD MAYBE REALIZE A DRY...FLUFFY 1-2+ INCHES
ACCOMPANIED BY SUSTAINED WINDS GENERALLY NO MORE THAN 15 MPH.
TEMP-WISE...MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO SUNDAY HIGHS WITH MOST AREAS
18-23.

MONDAY DAYTIME THROUGH TUESDAY DAYTIME...CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY
HIGH IN PRECIP-FREE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY MEASURABLE...ALTHOUGH
SUPPOSE A ROGUE FLURRY MENTION IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT SOME
POINT. ALOFT...THE CENTRAL PLAINS GRADUALLY GETS INTO
DRY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING WEEKEND SYSTEM...BUT
IT REMAINS QUITE COLD IN THE LOW LEVELS. MONDAY HIGHS WERE NUDGED
DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH A RANGE GENERALLY 18-25 FROM NORTH-SOUTH...AND
TUESDAY HIGHS ARE PRELIMINARILY LOOKING QUITE SIMILAR. LOOKING
BEYOND DAY 7...FINALLY AT LEAST SOME MODEST MODERATION TO THE COLD
APPEARS TO BE ON THE HORIZON FOR MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013

REST OF TONIGHT: MVFR OVC EXPECTED BETWEEN 1200-1800 FT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN N AROUND 15 KTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

WED: MVFR OVC WILL CONTINUE BUT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO 2500 FT
JUST AFTER MIDDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NNW AND CONTINUE GUSTING TO
NEAR 25 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

WED NIGHT: MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN. NW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
AS ANOTHER LOW-LEVEL WIND MAX DROPS INTO THE AREA BEHIND LOW PRES
DEPARTING TO THE GREAT LAKES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE UPCOMING STRETCH OF COLD WEATHER COULD RIVAL THE
SORT OF COLD STREAKS WE ONLY SEE AROUND HERE ONCE VERY FEW YEARS.
AS JUST ONE EXAMPLE OF THIS...THE LATEST FORECAST FOR OUR PRIMARY
OFFICIAL CLIMATE SITE...GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT...CALLS FOR DAILY
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 20 DEGREES FOR AT LEAST 6
CONSECUTIVE DAYS BETWEEN THURSDAY AND TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS IS
OBVIOUSLY NO GUARANTEE YET...IF IT WERE TO HAPPEN IT WOULD BE THE
LONGEST STREAK OF 20-OR-COLDER HIGHS IN GRAND ISLAND IN NEARLY 4
YEARS. HERE ARE A FEW OF THE MOST RECENT 3+ DAY STREAKS WITH HIGHS
OF 20 DEGREES-OR-COLDER AT GRAND ISLAND:

3 DAYS...DEC. 24-26, 2012
4 DAYS...JAN. 30-FEB. 2, 2011
4 DAYS...JAN. 9-12, 2011
10 DAYS...DEC. 31, 2009-JAN. 9, 2010

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...SAR
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH