Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 221737
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1137 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1032 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Just published a fairly substantial update to refresh pops/wx/
temps/dwpts. No significant chgs were made to the fcst though.
Over the last couple hrs we`ve see a small area of -SN brush the
NW 1/4 of the CWA from LXN-ODX. -SN is still falling from Hwy 92
north.

Radar also showed a blossoming area of frzg drzl (-FZDZ) near the
state line and lifting N. We did receive a report of -FZDZ in Burr
Oak. That area has diminished in the last couple scans as it
neared I-80.

Other arc`d bands of deeper clouds were forming over Wrn KS and
lifting and with a saturated DGZ...SN was falling from these
bands. HYS dropped to 2 mi around 15Z. These bands will lift into
Neb.

Cont to expect pockets of -FZDZ and SN. It probably won`t last
long in most areas initially...but as the shortwave trof
approaches...we should see precip fill-in and become more
widespread this afternoon...especially N of I-80 and E of Hwy 281.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1032 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

This serves as a first draft for this shift. Commentary on
sensible wx will be included later this aftn.

Aloft: RAP analyses/RAOB/sat imagery show a longwave trof in the
W with SW flow over the Plns. One weak shortwave trof lifted out
of the base of the Wrn trof this AM was over Wrn Neb and was
continuing to weaken. Another moved into the base this AM and was
lifting into NM/CO. This trof will cross the CWA this eve. Heights
will rise a bit in its wake as a shortwave ridge develops and
crests over the rgn tomorrow. There is a potent shortwave trof
diving down the backside of the Wrn trof today. As it reaches the
trof base tomorrow ...the Wrn trof will begin moving E.

Surface: Strong high pres over Ont/Qb extended back into the rgn.
It will lose its influence as a weak sfc trof crosses the area
tonight in response to the forcing aloft. Then Nrn Rockies high
pres will begin building in and slide into the Nrn Plns tomorrow.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Friday will see a break in the weather ahead of the main western
upper trough which will be edging into the Rockies. Temperatures
will moderate to the 30s for highs which may not feel so bad after
the teens/20s we`ve had the last several days.

Attention then turns to the next winter system for the first part
of the weekend, with the brunt of the storm arriving on Saturday.
Models are consistent in developing a widespread precipitation
event as the upper level low lifts out of Colorado and deepens as
it lifts northeast across Nebraska. Confidence is high for a
winter weather event, but is lower on how far north the freezing
rain line will be. The GFS track is farther south than other
models which would favor more snow, however, the ECWMF and NAM
track the system farther north allowing for mid level drier air to
work north, and the loss in dendritic moisture would lead to
freezing drizzle/rain where surface temperatures are below
freezing. In the end, haven`t deviated from the ensemble blend
with another messy wintry mix of snow and freezing rain. Moisture
is good with this system, with accumulations of both snow and ice
expected.

The weather quiets down Sunday through Tuesday in between systems
with flow aloft transitioning zonal and then southwester ahead of
potent of upper low closing off in southern California by mid
week. Temperatures moderate through Tuesday with highs trending
toward seasonal readings in the 40s, but if we see significant
snow on Saturday, this could have an impact on temps early on. The
pattern trends active again the middle/latter part of next week
as the southwest CONUS upper low begins to lift out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Friday)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Significant Wx: IFR conds cont until roughly 03Z. -FZDZ possible.

This Afternoon: IFR CIGs and VSBYs will temporarily decay to IFR
as bands of -SN or -FZDZ move thru mainly after 20Z. These bands
will move in and out. Greatest chance for a few hrs of steadier
-SN or -FZDZ will be at GRI. SE winds under 10 kts. Confidence:
Medium

Tonight: IFR to start as -SN and -FZDZ moves away. Should be done
by 03Z. Steadiest at GRI. Some light fog will remain after precip
potential ends then clearing. There is high uncertainty on fog. It
could cont and even worsen thru the night. Am concerned VSBYs are
not low enough. Lgt/vrbl winds become W around 5 kts. Confidence:
Medium

Fri thru 18Z: As long as fog is not a problem...VFR. Lgt W winds
become NW under 10 kts. Confidence: Medium

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for NEZ039-
     040-046-047-060>062-072>077-082>087.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for NEZ041-
     048-049-063-064.

KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Kelley
SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Fay
AVIATION...Kelley



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