Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 161137
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
637 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SANDHILLS SW TO NEAR MCCOOK /ANW-LBF-
MCK-CBK/ AT 11Z.

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 3 HRS TO BETTER
DEPICT THE LULL APPROACHING WITH THE FRONTAL TROF. FCST DEWPOINTS
WERE ALSO RUNNING ABOVE REALITY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE PLUME OF
DWPTS IN THE TEENS OVER N-CNTRL KS. THE SHORT- TERM HIRES MODELS
HAD A GOOD DEPICTION OF THIS. SO OBS WERE BLENDED WITH THIS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

...DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY WITH ONLY A MINOR DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND A BIT WINDIER...

ALOFT: WNW FLOW ENCOMPASSED THE CONUS. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROF
WAS ENTERING NEB/SD EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE
FCST AREA TODAY. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW
BEHIND THIS EVENING. AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW WILL BEGIN
TONIGHT...WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER WRN N AMERICA. THIS WILL FORCE
A PAIR OF PHASED TROFS /ONE CURRENTLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
THE OTHER OVER NV/ TO MOVE THRU HERE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE: LOW PRES WAS OVER SRN SD AND MOVING E WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. AS THE LOW HEADS
FOR THE GREAT LAKES...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP S AND CROSS THE
FCST AREA TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL THEN EXTEND S...BUILDING
IN TONIGHT.

NOW THRU SUNRISE: BREEZY AND VERY MILD. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE NW FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA
/GOTHENBURG-ORD/. WE DID SEE SPRINKLES AT ALLIANCE AROUND
07Z...BUT THE MID-LEVEL PATCHES OF REFLECTIVITY MOVING THRU THE
SANDHILLS HAVE BEEN DRYING UP AS THEY MOVE E. SO THE FCST IS DRY.

TODAY: DECREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING AS THE INITIAL TROF EXITS
TO THE E. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL COOLING/MOISTENING IN THE 850-700
MB LAYER WILL RESULT IN STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
THE INFLUENCE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROF WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS OVER N-CNTRL KS THIS AFTERNOON.

CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A COUPLE SPRINKLES N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE THOUGH DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE FRONTAL INVERSION CASTS DOUBT
ON THIS POSSIBILITY. NOT SURE STRATOCU CAN BECOME DEEP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT PRECIP. MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FCST...N AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES.

COLD AIR ADVECTION MAKES HIGH TEMPS DIFFICULT. USED HI-RES GEM
WHICH HAS A GOOD TRACK RECORD OVER THE LAST 7 DAYS.

WINDY AGAIN TODAY...WITH WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM S TO NW AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL GUST 25-35 MPH...HIGHEST N AND W OF
THE TRI- CITIES. AN ISOLATED G40-45 IS POSSIBLE FROM ELWOOD-
LEXINGTON- GREELEY. WE NOTED THE GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH AT BFF/AIA
OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT: DRY AND FAIRLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY S OF I-80. WINDS
SUBSIDE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 7 PM. USED CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS
/CONSRAW/ AS IT KEEPS TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR UNDER THICK CLOUD
COVER S OF I-80. LOWS PROBABLY END UP SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN
NORMAL... ESPECIALLY UNDER THINNER CLOUDS TO THE N.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MAIN CONCERNS ARE TRENDING TOWARD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO A CHANCE
OF STRONG STORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE CWA THURSDAY...WITH
MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE TRENDING FARTHER AND
FARTHER SOUTH. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE WILL BE FREE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY OF
SOME FLURRIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SMALL PERTURBATION TO THE
NORTH. I INCREASED TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE
SYSTEM MENTIONED IS MORE LIKELY TO BE FARTHER SOUTH...KEEPING LEES
SKY COVER AROUND.

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN. I INCREASED
TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS.  WE COULD GET SOME SPRINKLES FRIDAY NIGHT
FROM WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS
ARE QUITE DRY IN LOWER LEVELS...SO I AM NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH MORE
THAN THIS.

SATURDAY COULD BE INTERESTING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES...KEEPING US WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HELPING TO
BOOST TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. AN APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
COULD BE THE FOCUS OF SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE TRENDING HIGHER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AND THINK IT
IS A PRUDENT TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF STRONG STORMS BEING POSSIBLE IN
THE HWO FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. I INCREASED CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION...BOTH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FROM ALLBLEND.
THERE IS INCREASING MODEL CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY THAT WE WILL GET
RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND I WANT TO REFLECT THIS WITH HIGHER CHANCES
OF RAIN IN OUR SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE GFS INDICATES THAT MUCAPES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN SATURDAY AND
HENCE...NOT INCLUDING THE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS FOR SUNDAY AS WE
SHOULD BE IN A POST-COLD FRONT REGIME BY THEN..

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL CONSENSUS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND A SIGNIFICANT UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL GIVE US WARMER THAN
AVERAGE HIGHS AND DRY WEATHER. CURRENTLY...THE FORECAST IS FOR LOWER
TO MID 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT IT WOULD CERTAINLY BE PLAUSIBLE
FOR TEMPERATURES TO WIND UP A BIT WARMER THAN THIS FOR THESE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

TODAY: LLWS CONTINUES THRU 14Z. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE 15Z-16Z. VFR
MULTI- LAYERED MID- HIGH CLOUDS WILL DECREASE...BUT SCT STRATOCU
WILL DEVELOP 4-5K FT 16Z-18Z. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED JUST PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. UPSTREAM
WINDS ARE VARIABLE. AFTER FROPA...NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

WED EVE: VFR. STRATOCU DISSIPATE LEAVING JUST BKN-OVC CIRRUS WHICH
WILL DESCEND FROM 25K TO 20K FT AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO 18K. WINDS
SUBSIDE BY 01Z AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



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