Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 060847
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
347 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALOFT THE WESTERN EXTENT AN UPPER TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING
SOUTHEAST THRU MT AND THIS TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...REACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION
TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM MINNESOTA TO
EASTERN COLORADO WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THRU WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS FOCUSED SHOWERS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS AND DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH TSTM CHCS EXISTING
WITH FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. GENERALLY NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING TIMING OF THE
FROPA...BUT THAT IS NOT TO SAY THAT A STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORM CAN BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT ON WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OUR CWA BY EARLY AFTN OR WHETHER OR NOT THERE MAY BE A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES.
PLAN TO GO WITH SHORT TERM ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR FRONTAL POSITION FOR
TODAY.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND DRIER...COOLER AIR
ADVECTS SOUTH WITH DPS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE 50S. H85 TEMPS
WILL BE A SOLID 10C TO 15C FROM SUNDAY AFTN TO TODAY AND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE MID 80S. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOLLOWING FROPA WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN/EVENING WITH 3HR PRESSURE RISES
AVERAGING 3 TO 5 MB. WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT AS THE SFC GRADIENT RELAXES AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ONTO THE PLAINS. IN THE COOLER AIRMASS...LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL AND AVERAGE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015


GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL
EXIST ACROSS REGION TO STAR THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z
TUESDAY. THIS WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...WITH INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND THEN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
MOVES FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS INTO THE SOUTHWEST.

AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE FORECAST.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER...GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE AXIS OF A ~30KT JET AXIS JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COULD PROMOTE CONVECTION WHICH COULD WORK INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-60% POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS
THE PASSAGE OF MULTIPLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS WILL
PROMOTE AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS VARIOUS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY.

A COOLER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE READINGS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND LOW 80S. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RESULTANT THERMAL
ADVECTION THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS THEN EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A
WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AND
90S TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR
60 ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
THESE LOWS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S BY THE END OF
THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

COMPLICATED TAF FORECAST WITH CONVECTION MOVING IN AND VARIABLE
WINDS WITH STORMS...THEN ANOTHER WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED WITH
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. CHCS FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH THE PROGRESSING FRONT. ONCE BOUNDARY
MOVES THRU WINDS WILL TRANSITION NORTHERLY AND INCREASE. THE
BETTER PRESSURE RISES OCCUR IN THE AFTN/EVE AND WIND GUSTS NEAR
30KTS ARE POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND THE SFC GRADIENT RELAXES. CIGS LOOK TO
BE VARIABLE DEPENDING ON CONVECTION AND GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR TO
VFR CONDITIONS BUT MODELS HINT AT A BRIEF PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY
IFR CIGS AND WILL MONITOR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...FAY


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