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000
FXUS63 KGID 091036
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
536 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

FOCUS WAS ON DEWPOINTS AND WIND SPEEDS.

ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WITH WIND SPEEDS
KICKING UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE
WEST. WIND SHOULD BE STRONGER IN OUR EASTERN CWA WHERE THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTER. WE SHOULD NOT BE MIXING HIGHER THAN
850 MB ACCORDING TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NUMERICAL MODELS...SO IT
APPEARS THAT THIS WILL BE A SITUATION WHERE WE WILL MAINLY BE 20
PERCENT OR LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN OUR WESTERN CWA AND ABOVE 20
SUSTAINED WIND AND 25 MPH WIND GUSTS IN OUR EAST. THIS WOULD SUGGEST
THAT WE WILL PROBABLY WEASEL OUT OF FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...BUT
THIS WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. THIS COULD BE A BIT OF A CLOSE CALL...BUT THE FORECAST IS
NOT QUITE THERE FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A MENTION IN THE HWO AND
STRONGER WORDING IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST. FOR TEMPERATURES...I
BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT BASED ON RECENT MODEL
PERFORMANCE AND TRENDS WITHIN NUMERICAL MODELS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

ALOFT: THE PERSISTENT WRN USA RIDGE/ERN USA TROF WILL CONTINUE THRU
SAT 3/15. WITHIN THIS REGIME...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE /1 STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS/ WILL SLIDE OVER THE PLAINS MON...AS
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES ONSHORE INTO THE WRN USA. PART OF THIS
TROF WILL MOVE THRU LATE TUE WITH A THREAT OF SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW.
NNW FLOW WILL DEVELOP WED AS THE FLOW AMPLIFIES. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVES THRU THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROF...WHICH WILL MISS TO
THE N AND HEAD FOR THE GREAT LAKES FRI. NW FLOW THEN TURNS CYCLONIC
FRI. THE THIRD PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROF WILL CUT THRU THE RIDGE AND
ARRIVE FOR SAT.

SURFACE: THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR MON. LEE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER WY. THIS LOW WILL HEAD SE INTO KS AS A
SHARP COLD FRONT SURGES S. NRN ROCKIES HIGH PRES BUILDS IN LATE TUE.
THIS HIGH WILL EMERGE INTO THE SRN PLAINS WED. IT APPEARS THAT A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THRU AS A CLIPPER ORGANIZES OVER CANADA. THAT
WILL PUT THE FCST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR THU. AS THE CLIPPER DIVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRI...ITS COLD FRONT WILL EASE INTO THE REGION
AND BECOME STATIONARY INTO SAT. LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ALONG
THE FRONT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS FCST IS ABOVE AVERAGE...EXCEPT WITH TEMPS
AND PRECIP CHANCES TUE-TUE NIGHT. THIS TIME FRAME IS BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

MON: A GORGEOUS DAY TO BE OUTSIDE IF YOU CAN MANAGE IT. PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND BELIEVE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR. TEMPS
WERE INCREASED FURTHER USING THE BIAS CORRECTED NAM 2M TEMPS. WE NOW
HAVE PARTS OF N-CNTRL KS NEAR 80F. THE 06Z NAM CAME IN EVEN WARMER
SUGGESTING THE ENTIRE FCST AREA WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S...WITH
76-77F IN THE TRI-CITIES. THAT IS NOT IN THE FCST YET. BUT DONT BE
SURPRISED IF WE HEAD IN THAT DIRECTION WITH LATER FCSTS.

USING GRI AS A PROXY FOR THE FCST AREA...THE WARMEST DAYS THIS YEAR
ARE AS FOLLOWS:

66 ON FEB 18TH
68 ON JAN 19TH

MON NIGHT: VERY MILD. MOST LOCATIONS PROBABLY REMAIN IN THE LOW 40S.

TUE: A HARSH DOSE OF REALITY. WINDY AND MUCH COOLER. BELIEVE WE ARE
LOOKING AT WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL /SUSTAINED 30 MPH OR GREATER
AND-OR G45+/.

THE 06Z NAM HAS AN 18 MB PRES GRADIENT FROM NW-SE ACROSS NEB WITH
MAXIMUM 6 HR PRES RISES UP TO 10 MB FROM 12Z-18Z. THE GFS IS EVEN
MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH A 21 MB PRES GRADIENT AND RISES UP TO 13 MB.
THE EC IS MORE EXTREME THAN THE GFS. EVEN THE CONSENSUS OF ALL
GUIDANCE /WHICH USUALLY IS CONSERVATIVE/ HAS SUSTAINED WINDS AT/NEAR
ADVISORY. THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS OF MOS WAS USED FOR SUSTAINED
WINDS WITH CONSRAW FOR GUSTS.

TEMPS NOT EASY. USED THE NAM 3-HOURLY TEMPS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
NEGATE MUCH OF A TEMP RISE. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT TEMPS WILL
LARGELY HOLD STEADY...BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THEM TO FALL IN THE
AFTERNOON.

PRECIP: THERE IS LITTLE CONSENSUS ON THE QPF. THE UKMET AND EC
CONTINUE HEAVY WITH .10" TO 0.25". THE GEM HAS ALMOST NOTHING AND
THE 00Z/06Z NAM ARE LESS THAN .10". THE 03Z SREF PROBABILITIES BARE
THIS OUT. THE MEAN HAS .10" FROM I-80 N...BUT THE PROB FOR .10 IS
LESS THAN 30%. USED A 30-30-40 BLEND OF THE 12Z/18Z/00Z MULTI-MODEL
QPF. THIS OFFERS .04 TO .08 WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS N AND W OF THE
TRI-CITIES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND FCST POPS MAY BE TOO HIGH.

AS FOR PTYPE IT`S MARGINAL. COLD ALOFT BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS
TOO WARM TO ENTIRELY SUPPORT SNOW. THE FRZG LEVEL WILL BE 1000-1800
FT. I EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN...BUT HEAVIER EMBEDDED PRECIP ELEMENTS /IF
THEY OCCUR/ COULD MIXED SOME SNOW IN WITH THE RAIN. FOR NOW DID NOT
INCLUDE ANY ACCUM IN THE FCST SINCE THE GROUND WILL BE WARM.

WED: A NICE RECOVERY. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH A BIT OF NW BREEZE...
GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH.

THU: IT`S TRENDING WARMER. A VERY NICE DAY. LOW-MID 60S. SW WINDS
GUST 20-25 MPH.

FRI: WE TRIM A FEW DEGS OFF THU HIGHS...BUT 50S IS NOT BAD.

SAT: INCREASING CLOUDS AND STILL MILD. WE MAY BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER
MINOR RAINFALL EVENT SAT NIGHT.

BEYOND: WE STILL SEE A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE GFS AND EC ENSEMBLES
FOR A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE NE PACIFIC THAT RESULTS IN A WRN USA
LONGWAVE TROF DEVELOPING AROUND TUE 3/18. THE EC CONTROL RUN AND
EVEN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS LEE CYCLOGENESIS WITH A CO LOW
HEADING FOR THE GREAT LAKES. WE HAVE NOT SEE THIS ALL WINTER LONG AS
THE PATTERN HAS NOT SUPPORTED IT. IF THIS HAPPENS...WE COULD HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT QPF. THE SHIFT TO A -PNA PATTERN SUGGESTS
A PERIOD OF COLD WX TOWARD THE END OF THIS MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

THE EARLY MORNING CONCERN WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL WIND
SPEED AT THE SURFACE INCREASES. WIND WILL BE A BIT GUSTY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY BEFORE SUBSIDING TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 516 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW
HUMIDITY AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE AREA MOST POISED TO BE
CLOSER TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM ORD
TO FRANKLIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO PHILLIPSBURG KANSAS...WHERE
LOW HUMIDITY WILL OCCUR NEAR 20 PERCENT OR BELOW THIS
AFTERNOON...AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP...BUT WITH
SUSTAINED WIND REMAINING JUST BELOW 20 MPH AND GUSTS JUST UNDER 25
MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE OUTSIDE CONCERN THAT OUR EAST
MAY WIND UP BEING OUR BIGGEST CONCERN LIES WITH THE CONFIDENCE THAT
WIND GUSTS WILL BE MORE CONSIDERABLE. IF WE SHOULD MIX HIGHER THAN
ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...THIS COULD BE AN AREA ON WHICH TO FOCUS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
FIRE WEATHER...HEINLEIN