Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 020906
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
406 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING RESULTING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR
NRN PORTIONS OF CANADA CONTINUES TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE NRN
CONUS...WITH AN AREA OF ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE SPREAD ACROSS THE
SRN CONUS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A DISTURBANCE IN THE MAIN
FLOW CONTINUING TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND ALONG WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK BROUGHT SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING BUT
HAS SINCE TAPERED OF TO PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THE SURFACE...THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDS FROM UP NEAR THE HUDSON BAY AREA S/SW THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND TOWARD THE PANHANDLES OF TX/OK. NORTH OF THE
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST...CENTERED OVER WRN PORTIONS OF NEB. SKIES HAVE BEEN
GRADUALLY CLEARING AS THE DISTURBANCE SLIDES EAST...AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH TEMPS HAVING FALLEN INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AS OF 3 AM...NC KS STILL IN THE LOWER 60S.

LOOKING AT THE FORECAST FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...IT REMAINS
DRY WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE
IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...REMAINING ZONAL WITH NO NOTABLE
DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE AT THE SURFACE...KEEPING WINDS
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH THE DAY. THE DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION FROM LIGHT/VARIABLE TO MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME...AS
THE THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SETS UP TO THE E/SE OF THE CWA AND A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. START TO SEE
WARMER AIR ALOFT ADVECTING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AS WE GET INTO
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH THERE STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINLY THE SERN THIRD OF THE CWA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA...AND TOGETHER WITH INCREASED LIFT THANKS TO WARM
AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER LLJ...SHOW
PRECIP SLIDING N/NE WITH TIME TONIGHT. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE AREA...BUT DID HOLD OF POPS UNTIL AFTER 03Z. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY/SHEAR PRESENT THAT A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CANT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AND THUNDER. PROGRESSIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO NOT GIVE US VERY LONG STRETCHES OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH THE DRY STRETCHES BEING MORE TYPICAL OF WHAT TO
EXPECT IN SEPTEMBER.

WE START OFF THE THE LONG TERM WITH A RATHER WARM NOTE. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL BE A MOIST AND
BREEZY DAY...AND DRY. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND CAP SHOULD
ENSURE THIS. THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST. I INCREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS...KEEPING MID 70S IN THE
SOUTH. I WOULD HAVE BEEN COMFORTABLE BUMPING UP THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA BY A DEGREE FROM WHAT I HAVE IN THERE.

ANY PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SHOULD BE POST-FRONTAL AND ELEVATED. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD
OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTH...THE ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL FOLLOW AND
EVENTUALLY INSTABILITY WILL SUBSTANTIALLY DECREASE TO TAKE OUT
THUNDER COMPLETELY BY SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY FOR
THE MOST PART...UNDER CONTROL OF THE SURFACE HIGH...BUT THIS HIGH
QUICKLY MOVES EAST AND ALLOWS THE FRONT TO BEGIN RETURNING AS A
WARM FRONT. AS A RESULT...MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE IN
OUR SOUTHWEST SUNDAY...AND SPREAD NORTHEAST AS THE WARM FRONT
ADVANCES. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR BY EARLY
NEXT WORK WEEK FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO
TELL TO MAKE MUCH OF A DETERMINING STATEMENT...AT LEAST NOT ENOUGH
TO MENTION IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

I LIKED THE NAM FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AS THIS IS THE LAST DAY
COMPLETELY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WENT WITH CONSRAW FOR LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THIS IS THE LAST NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR.
THESE MODELS TEND TO DO BEST IN THESE SITUATIONS. WENT MORE
TOWARD BCCONSRAW FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY...AND ALLBLEND FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

CONTINUING TO SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA...BUT
CHANCES OF ANY AFFECTING THE TERMINAL AREAS IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP
MENTION OUT OF THE TAF. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND ADJUST IF
NECESSARY. KEPT VFR CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WINDS
REMAINING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THANKS TO SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE A RETURN OF MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ADO


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