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087
FXUS63 KGID 232009 CCA
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
309 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Dry and relatively mild weather will prevail through the rest of
today and Monday. Light northerly winds will go light and variable
tonight, before shifting to the south for Monday morning as high
pressure moves off to the east. Winds tomorrow will likely be more
breezy than today, possibly gusting to 15-25 MPH during the
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

The long-term period begins off dry as well, but continued southerly
flow means that Tuesday will be notably warmer once again. Highs
are expected to range from the low to the upper 90s. Dewpoints in
the mid to upper 60s may push heat index values to around 100
degrees across the area. While not as hot as last week, it will
probably end up being the hottest day of the week.

Chances for rain and thunderstorms return to the forecast area late
Tuesday night as a cold front drops southward towards the forecast
area. Models vary a little bit on the timing of this front, but
the overall consensus is that it will be draped across the area
Wednesday afternoon and evening, allowing for scattered
thunderstorms to develop. The GFS isn`t particularly concerning
from a severe weather perspective...around 1000-2000J of MUCAPE
and 25-25 kts of deep-layer shear...but I would expect to see a
"marginal" risk be introduced tomorrow, at least for parts of the
area. Of course, this will likely be affected by mesoscale
features from previous convection (outflow boundaries, lingering
cloud cover, etc.)

Chances for thunderstorms gradually shift southward through the day
Thursday. Most of the area will dry out by late afternoon, but a
few storms could linger across Kansas through the overnight into
Friday morning.

High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday are expected to be much
cooler and will range from the low 80s to the mid 90s. These
temperatures will be greatly influenced on timing of precipitation
and sky cover.

Late next week into the weekend, we will move into more
northwesterly flow aloft, leading to primarily dry conditions. Even
so, I`ve kept isolated chances for storms as a few quick-moving
disturbances are indicated by both the GFS and ECMWF...albeit at
varying times. Temperatures are expected to stay in the upper 80s to
low 90s Friday through next Sunday as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Monday)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

VFR conditions with little if any cloud cover expected today.
Winds will be northerly and light today, before becoming light and
variable this evening. A few mid-level clouds are possible
overnight, but the threat for for fog or stratus appears low.

Tomorrow, winds will shift southerly, eventually gusting to the
13-17kt range tomorrow afternoon.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels