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000
FXUS63 KGID 230556
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1256 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WILL GO AHEAD AND LET THE HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT. WITH
TEMPERATURES ON THE DOWNWARD TREND AND HEAT INDEX VALUES FALLING
BELOW 100 DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS THE PAST HOUR...SEE NO NEED TO
KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING PAST ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION.
OTHERWISE...SOME OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST MODELS ARE CONTINUING
TO HINT THAT WE MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOP TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND TRACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL
AREA...SO MAINTAINED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE TIME BEING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WEAK COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE HAS A FEW CLOUDS ALONG THE
FRONT BUT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS WHETHER THE HEAT INDEX WILL
REACH CRITERIA. THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL HOURS OF SUNSHINE TO HELP
INCREASE THE TEMPERATURES AND WITH THE CLOUDS MOVING OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB A LITTLE FASTER.
HUMIDITY IS STILL FAIRLY HIGH AND EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE. WILL LEAVE
THE ADVISORY FOR NOW EVEN IF THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ADVISORY IS A
LITTLE IN QUESTION. IT WILL STILL FEEL HOT AND HUMID OUT THERE.

THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE A
CHALLENGE. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WHILE OTHERS REMAIN DRY. THERE ARE FEWER MODELS
SHOWING THE THUNDERSTORMS IN CURRENT RUNS THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE
WEAK BOUNDARY COULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND THE
CIN HAS BEEN WEAKENING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT IS MAINLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND THE WEAKENING CIN IS
FURTHER SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THERE IS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE AREA AND THERE IS ONLY A VERY WEAK WAVE THAT COULD HELP GET SOME
THUNDERSTORMS GOING. HAVE LEFT THE SMALL CHANCES IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE AGAIN
IT IS A SMALL CHANCE. THIS APPEARS TO BE FROM THE HIGH PLAINS/BLACK
HILLS AREA TO THE NORTHWEST...THAT MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE
NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...SOME MODELS SHOW THIS AND OTHERS DO NOT.

IF THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
AREA BY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

OVERALL...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A GENERAL WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL ALL CHANGE THIS WEEKEND
AND NEXT WEEK AS WE ARE LOOKING AT YET ANOTHER COOL DOWN. FOR THE
MOST PART...WE WILL BE DRY OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN ALOFT. THE RIDGE IS
CENTERED MORE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...BUT ULTIMATELY CONTINUES
TO CONTROL OUR OVERALL DRY AND HOT WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. MODELS DO TRY TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT VIA WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS. HOWEVER...THESE CHANCES ARE LOW AND THERE REMAINS SOME
INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS....BUT I COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. NEVERTHELESS...COVERAGE WOULD NOT
BE WIDESPREAD AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE INSIGNIFICANT FOR THE
MOST PART. LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA.

TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 90S TO ABOUT 102
DEGREES. THESE TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING
BETWEEN THE MID 90S TO ABOUT 106 DEGREES. WARMER HEAT INDEX
VALUES FROM ABOUT 100 TO 106 WILL BE BEST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6...OR
BETTER YET...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GENEVA TO WILSONVILLE
NEBRASKA.

A VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL BEGIN TO DIG IN FROM CANADA OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BREAK THE
HIGH DOWN AND CHANGE OUR PATTERN ALOFT. THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES
WILL BECOME BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE COLDER
AIR MASS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURE-WISE THIS WILL BE
NICE...BUT WE WILL STILL BE IN A DRY FORECAST WITH THE LACK OF
FORCING IN OUR AREA. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 80S
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY VARYING DEGREES OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AT TIMES. ALTHOUGH THERE IS ARGUABLY A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING THE TERMINAL AREAS MAINLY
DURING THE 09Z-15Z TIME FRAME THIS MORNING...THIS CHANCE SEEMS LOW
ENOUGH THAT HAVE ROLLED THE DICE A BIT AND REMOVED THE VICINITY
THUNDERSTORM (VCTS) GROUP FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE.
ASSUMING CONVECTION REMAINS AT BAY...SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUIET 24
HOURS AS SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AVERAGE UP TO AROUND 12KT AS THEY
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM A PREVAILING NORTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSSI
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...GUERRERO
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH