021
FXUS63 KGID 020518
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1218 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Weakening thunderstorms move into the area late this evening
  into tonight. There is a low (5%) chance for a few wind gusts
  as high as 60 MPH...particularly in western areas.

- Dry and warm Wednesday and Thursday with only a low chance
  (20%) for showers or storms Thursday night.

- Better chances for thunderstorms arrive for Independence Day
  (Friday). Off and on chances for thunderstorms continue
  through the holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Scattered thunderstorms developing over CO/WY will move eastward
and continue to organize as we head into the evening hours.
Based on recent CAMs, this activity would approach western
portions of the area around 10-11pm, but should be on a
weakening trend as they move into a more stable environment.
That said, these storms could produce some localized severe
winds as they dissipate. There are varying solutions on how far
eastward this threat extends, but the primary threat appears to
be near and northwest of a line from Lexington to Ord, NE.
Additional elevated showers/storms may develop later overnight
into Wednesday morning (mainly north of I-80), but this is not
expected to be severe.

Wednesday and Thursday will be warm and mostly quiet as upper
level ridging moves overhead. High temperatures are expected to
reach the low 90s across most of the area. Low chances for
thunderstorms move in from the west late Thursday night with an
approaching shortwave, but better chances will hold off until
later in the day on Friday.

Unfortunately, the best chance for thunderstorms appears to be
late during the afternoon and evening on July 4th. Scattered convection
could actually begin by early afternoon as the shortwave moves
into the area, lasting into the evening hours before eventually
shifting to our east. Deep-layer shear is on the lower
end (generally 15-25kts), so a widespread, organized severe
weather event is not expected, but a few localized strong to
marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out. Additionally, slow
storm motions and very high precipitable water values
(1.50-2.00") could lead to localized excessive rainfall issues.

The rest of the holiday weekend is a little quieter, but there
are still off and on thunderstorm chances as a series of weak
disturbances move through the area. After a warm day on
Saturday, temperatures dip slightly into the 80s for most areas
on Sunday/Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Some
mid-level clouds will continue to move across the region through
tomorrow afternoon, with skies clearing out in the late
afternoon/early evening. Some thunderstorms have developed to
the north of the terminals, closer to KODX and KLBF. These are
not expected to impact the terminals; however, a few showers
cannot be entirely ruled out overnight. Have omitted from
prevailing conditions for now due to potential limited coverage.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Wekesser