Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 011711

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1111 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 420 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Quiet conditions in place early this morning, with upper air and
satellite data showing northwesterly flow across the region, as
the main low pressure system continues to gradually push east
through the Great Lakes region. Outside of some lingering low/mid
level stratus across N-NE portions of the CWA, skies are clear.
After a couple breezy/windy days, westerly wind speeds finally
tapered off this evening, and most locations currently sit in the
5 to 10 MPH range.

Overall, no significant changes were made to the forecast for
today and tonight, which remains dry. Models are in good
agreement showing the currently upper level northwesterly flow
becoming more zonal with time today, and staying that way
overnight. At the surface, the weakened pressure gradient will
keep winds on the lighter side through the period, with more
variable winds possible tonight as higher pressure settles in
across the area. Cloud cover looks to continue to be slow to move
out, especially across the north- northeast, with other areas
being partly cloudy-mostly clear. As far as temperatures go,
currently not expecting a notable change from Wednesday, with
mid/upper 30s in the north to lower/mid 40s to the south.
Overnight lows tonight look to fall back into the upper
teens/lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 420 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

A rather complex weather pattern is shaping up to impact the local
area through the extended periods. While an area of low pressure
is expected to cut off across the desert southwest on Friday as a
weak ridge of high pressure amplifies across the central plains,
this will be short lived, as a pair of upper level disturbances
will traverse the plains Saturday and Sunday. At the same
time...the aforementioned upper level low will gradually track
across northern Mexico...eventually spreading some moisture north
towards the central plains late Friday night or Saturday. While
the bulk of this moisture will remain well south of the Local
area...given the timing in the surge of this moisture, expect any
precipitation across north central Kansas Friday night through
early Saturday morning to fall as light snow or flurries...albeit
totals will likely not amount to more than a tenth of an inch of
accumulation at best.

While this upper level low will eventually lift northeast into the
southern plains early next week, the focus will shift to a large
trough of low pressure and arctic cold front that will begin to
impact the local area late Monday night or Tuesday. This front
will usher in a significantly cooler airmass across the region
Tuesday and Wednesday...when afternoon temperatures will likely
struggle to reach 20 degrees under mostly cloudy skies. In
addition to these colder temperatures...strong northwestelry winds
will also impact the region...making for bitterly cold conditions
over the middle portion of next week.

While these cold temperatures look fairly certain...much less
certain is the potential for precipitation across the local area
Tuesday and Wednesday. While previous model runs had a closed low
tracking near the local area Tuesday through Wednesday...the
latest runs now track a broader trough across the region with a
lesser chance for significant snowfall impacting the local area.
That said...this system still bears watching as there will likely
be some snow around the region and models should come into better
agreement with their forecasts over the coming days.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1107 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

VFR conditions are expected as high pressure will be in firm
control of our weather. Wind will be near calm tonight as the
center of the surface high slips nearby, but even northwest wind
today should be less than 12 KTS.




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