Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 210559
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1259 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Most areas will be dry through Saturday...but can not completely
rule out a few sprinkles or even some isolated thunderstorms.
There is elevated instability tonight with MUCAPE values of
200-1000 J/KG over our southwestern zones. MUCAPE will increase in
coverage on Saturday and should generally be in the 200-1500 J/KG
range. A stratus deck will likely keep temperatures up overnight
and cooler during the day tomorrow. The stratus will also greatly
limit any surface based instability. Some forecast models are
generating what would amount to primarily a few sprinkles out of
the stratus deck while the WRF shows at least some potential for
isolated convection given the elevated instability/CAPE. Perhaps
the most notable change is the several degrees that were knocked
off of highs for Saturday. It has just been pretty hard to warm up
lately given all the clouds and that will likely remain true
on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

This is actually a pretty interesting and at times uncertain long
term period. We are pretty much now within our climatologically
peak time for severe thunderstorms and the atmosphere the week
ahead does appear more favorable for strong to severe
thunderstorms. Sunday evening/Sunday night across our western
zones could see some strong to severe storms. The 12z GFS says do
not rule out Monday storms, but lacks support from the NAM and
ECMWF. Model uncertainty increases as we head into Tuesday through
Friday, but there have been at least a few models with several
runs that would indicate severe weather potential on Tuesday as
well, which the SPC has also noted.

Sunday...Most of the day should be dry and hopefully warmer, will
see if we can punch at least a few holes in those clouds, but
still mostly cloudy. Thunderstorms will likely develop in the late
evening after 5 or 6 pm. The 12Z GFS is the furthest east and
would develop those thunderstorms in our far west (Dawson County),
while most forecast models would have convective initiation
west of our forecast area in the Lincoln county area. Either way,
a strong 50 kt low level jet Sunday night will likely support
thunderstorms as they track east through our forecast area with
time. Eastern areas may not see any thunderstorms until well after
midnight Sunday night.

Monday...There is plenty of uncertainty as to how far east that
front will press. Will need to keep a close eye on this day.
Severe weather parameters are lower, but if the front hangs
up/stalls out we could certainly still see some thunderstorms
especially across our east.

Tuesday through Friday...We stay in a southwesterly upper level
flow regime with good sfc moisture in the area and weak short
waves riding through. There is just a bit to much uncertainty with
the timing of these little short waves in these outer
periods. Thunderstorms will certainly be possible with each short
wave that passes through and thus am keeping thunderstorms in the
forecast throughout this period until the shortwaves can be
better timed.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Ceilings will lower much like they did last night, and with fairly
similar conditions from last night, we will possibly dip down to
MVFR visibility for awhile, but the ceilings will be generally in
the IFR category.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wesely
LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...Heinlein



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