Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 261752
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1252 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL AIDE
IN A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASED WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH 80S TO MID 90S FOR FORECAST HIGHS. SOUTH SOUTH EAST
BREEZES WILL ALSO INCREASE UNDER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KTS AT TIMES.

A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE APPROACHES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL EJECT THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WHICH WILL GENERATE A LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. WHILE THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. IT REMAINS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD CREEP INTO NORTHEASTERN ZONES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

AN UPPER LOW MOVES OVER AND BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW ON THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A COLD FRONT TO THE
SOUTH MOVES TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH IN THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THERE IS SURFACE CAPE OF OVER 4000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...THEN DROPS OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS HAVE
CLEARED MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF WRAP AROUND THAT COULD CLIP
THE NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THERE IS A SURFACE HIGH THAT SETTLES INTO THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING TO THE EAST SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE FOR FRIDAY
BUT START TO WARM BACK UP AGAIN ON SATURDAY. DURING THE PERIOD AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS WEAKEN THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
VALID TAF PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH WITH THIS FORECAST.
ONE CONCERN IS WE COULD SEE SOME CEILINGS AROUND 1000-3000 FT
(MVFR CONDITIONS) TOMORROW MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO GO QUITE THAT LOW ON CEILINGS AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER
AREA OF CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND SURFACE WINDS AND THEN A CHANCE
FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TOMORROW MORNING. FIRST...WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD PICK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
CLOSER TO 20-25 KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AROUND
00Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL AGAIN PICK BACK UP TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING LOW AT THE SURFACE...BUT
GUSTS COULD BE CLOSER TO 25 KNOTS. DEPENDING ON THIS SURFACE LOW
TRACK...WIND SPEEDS COULD CHANGE IN BOTH MAGNITUDE AND DIRECTION
SO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT FOR TOMORROW. LASTLY...IT DOES APPEAR THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TOMORROW MORNING AS A
LOW LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND INTENSITY IS STILL A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN SO LOOK FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES IN SUBSEQUENT TAFS FOR
LLWS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...GUERRERO


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