Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 040918
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
418 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MODEST LLJ ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS HAS HELPED TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. OVERALL...EXPECT
THIS WAVE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH PRECIP
CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN SOONER. ONCE THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKS EAST AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE REALIZED...EXPECT A QUICK REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURES TO UNSOCIABLY WARM LEVELS...ALBEIT LIKELY A FEW
DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAYS WARM READINGS.

AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIMINISHES BY LATE
MORNING...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS
EVIDENT IN UPSTREAM SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS. AS A RESULT...WITH ONLY
A MODEST CHANGE IN 850 MBS TEMPS...DECENT MIXING AS WELL AS A STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE...WE SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE
SEEING TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WITH ELEVATED DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID
60S...EXPECT HEAT INDICES TO ALSO CLIMB TO NEAR 100 LATER THIS
AFTERNOON IN SPOTS AS WELL...BUT OPTED TO KEEP THIS MENTION OUT
OF THE LOCAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AS IT MOST LIKELY WILL ONLY
APPLY TO A VERY SMALL AREA CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...AND SOMETHING THAT IS NOT THAT UNUSUAL FROM THE PAST FEW
DAYS.

WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO BE DRY ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA IN WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS WAVE...EXPECT YET ANOTHER WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO CROSS THE REGION IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BECAUSE THIS WAVE IS
NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS THIS MORNINGS DISTURBANCE...EXPECT A
CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS LATE
TONIGHT...AND OPTED TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO 20 PERCENT OR
LESS AND CONFINE THESE CHANCES PRIMARILY TO PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH MOST 00/06Z MODEL
DATA...WHICH INDICATES SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE COMPLETED AND SENT AROUND 5 AM
CDT THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A VCTS WITH TEMPORARY MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE SPARKED BY A DEVELOPING LLJ...WHICH IS
ALREADY RESULTING IN WS AT BOTH TERMINALS ACCORDING TO WIND DATA
BEING PICKED UP BY THE KUEX RADAR. THIS WS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING
THE MID MORNING HOURS...WHEN WIND SPEEDS AT THE SURFACE
INCREASE...WHICH WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 25KTS OR GREATER OUT
OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR A
VCTS OR TS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST BEYOND THE VALID PERIOD OF THE
TAF.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ROSSI


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