Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 241718
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1218 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE DROPPED QUICKLY TODAY IN OUR W/NW
ZONES IN THE DRY AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH
YESTERDAY. THESE WESTERN AREAS DID NOT SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT AND FUELS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER GROWTH. NW
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDING AND
GIVEN THE DRY...WINDY CONDITIONS HAVE WENT AHEAD WITH A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM ORD TO LEXINGTON TO
CAMBRIDGE NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

CONTINUING TO SEE PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WHICH BROUGHT
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO
DRIVE THIS PRECIPITATION THOUGH WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY
LEFT...WITH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING IT SHIFTING THROUGH
THE HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT IS
MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA...WITH ALL BUT FAR ERN PORTIONS
HAVING SEEN THEIR WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW.

PRECIP CHANCES ARE GOING TO LINGER ON FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE
HOURS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS SLIDES EAST...AND MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THINGS
DRYING OUT BY MID MORNING. THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD THROUGH TONIGHT REMAINS DRY...WITH SHORTWAVE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN...SET UP BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM AND ANOTHER MOVING TOWARD THE WEST COAST.

EXPECTING TO SEE DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER...THOUGH DID SLOW THE
CLEARING DOWN A TOUCH...AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN DECK IS JUST
NOW GETTING INTO THE PANHANDLE OF NEB. THE NW WINDS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...BUT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
MORNING. SHOULD SEE SPEEDS START TO DIMINISH DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH MIXING POTENTIAL REMAINS GOOD...THE CORRIDOR OF
STRONGER WINDS TO TAP INTO STARTS TO GO AWAY. STILL GOING TO SEE A
DRIER AIRMASS WORK ITS WAY IN...AND MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE DAY. SAME GOES WITH HIGHS...WHICH ARE
FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING
TODAYS CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START WARM AND DRY FOR MOST AREAS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. A VERY LARGE SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. FOR THOSE
THAT HAVE STARTED SPRING PLANTING AND ARE WATCHING OUT FOR
FROST...TUESDAY NIGHT MAY BE A TIME FRAME TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

FRIDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER...BUT EVEN THAT IS
A RATHER LIMITED CONCERN. THE WIND WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS
MOST OF OUR CWA AND BELOW THE 25 MPH WIND GUST CRITERIA FOR MOST
AREAS. EASTERN COUNTIES MAY SEE WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO NEAR 25 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS LIKELY REMAINING BELOW
20 MPH. THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY AS A SFC LOW STRENGTHS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AND DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE LOW AS WE DO NOT START
ADVECTION APPRECIABLE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE WIND ACROSS WESTERN ZONES MAY ONLY BE AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OF LITTLE CONCERN. THE AREAS OF STRONGEST
WIND ACROSS OUR EAST ON FRIDAY ARE CURRENTLY SEEING RAIN AND WILL
LIKELY HAVE WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS OF 0.40 TO OVER 1.00 INCH BY
THE TIME THE RAIN ENDS THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...AM NOT OVERLY
ENTHUSIASTIC WITH THE FIRE DANGER THREAT.

SATURDAY...MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH BREEZY SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WINDS ADVECTING MORE MOISTURE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING DEWPOINTS...BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPPED FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND THE DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM WILL STILL BE WELL OFF TO OUR WEST. THERE IS A VERY
SMALL CHANCE OF A LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACROSS OUR EASTERN
AREAS IF THE CAP CAN BREAK...BUT THIS APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES...WITH EASTERN ZONES
CURRENTLY THE MORE FAVORED AREA.

SUNDAY...A VERY SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WITH A DEEP
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL ENTER THE PLAINS. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND WHERE THE BOUNDARIES ALL SET UP
INCLUDING MOST ESPECIALLY THE WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE. FORECAST
MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER INCONSISTENT WITH WHERE THESE BOUNDARIES
WILL SET UP MAKING CONFIDENCE A BIT LOW. THE LATEST FORECAST MODEL
RUNS QUICKLY PUSH THE WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE THROUGH MOST OF OUR
AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A DRY SLOT AND NOT
MUCH PRECIPITATION EXCEPT FOR MAYBE OUR FAR NORTH AND EAST.
HOWEVER...THIS COULD ALL CHANGE IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN BY EVEN 6
HOURS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED TO CUT OFF AND
ESSENTIALLY STALL OUT OR MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE AT LEAST FAIR IF NOT
GOOD IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THIS CUT OFF LOW AND THUS WILL BE
CALLING FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF FAIRLY DECENT CHANCES OF RAIN. WE
WILL BE GETTING PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AS WE GET INTO THE AIR ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. OUR FORECAST HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S MAY BE TOO WARM AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
US STUCK IN THE 40S WITH SOME MODELS EVEN INDICATING WIDESPREAD
COLD RAIN AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. THERE IS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD INTO THIS LATE PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH PHASE THE STALLED LOW
OVER THE PLAINS WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH
DUMBBELLS THE COLDER GREAT LAKES AIR INTO OUR REGION. WE MAY BE
TOO WARM WITH LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND A LOT WILL DEPEND ON
CLOUD COVER. MAY HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR A FROST/FREEZE DURING THIS
PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. A LOT WILL RIDE ON IF THE
GREAT LAKES SYSTEM CAN REALLY PHASE IN WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SYSTEM. IF THIS ACTUALLY OCCURS THEN THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES COULD
FALL INTO THE -24C RANGE. INSTABILITY SHOWERS...NOT CURRENTLY IN
THE FORECAST...WOULD THEN BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT. WE WILL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR OR CLOUD COVER
WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST. GUSTY NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DECREASE BY EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL TRANSITION SW ON FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 427 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

STILL LOOKING AT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE UPPER
TEEN TO MID 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THANKS TO THE
COMBO OF TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S/NEAR 70 AND MANY
DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR RH VALUES
FALLING TO/BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS IS ACROSS THE FAR WRN FRINGE OF
THE CWA...WHICH ALSO HAPPENS TO BE AN AREA THAT MISSED OUT ON THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION LAST EVENING/OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS EAST
OF THERE HAD NOTABLE RAINFALL...AND FORECAST DEWPOINTS FOR THE
MOST PART REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT. THE BIG QUESTION LIES WITH
WINDS. MODELS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 20 AND GUSTS NEAR 25
MPH CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...AS WE GET INTO THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...WHEN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT THEIR
LOWEST...THOSE SAME MODELS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SFC WINDS
TAPERING OFF LIKELY BELOW 20 MPH...AND WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER DIMINISHING ENOUGH THAT GETTING GUSTS AT/ABOVE 25 MPH
WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT. HAD CONSIDERED A HEADLINE FOR
DAWSON/GOSPER/FURNAS...BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE RH/WIND
COMBO BEING MET FOR 3HRS...HELD OFF. WILL BE SOMETHING FOR THE DAY
SHIFT TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039-046-060-
     072-082.

KS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAY
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...FAY
FIRE WEATHER...ADO



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