Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 041110
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
610 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE 1-SENTENCE VERSION: OTHER THAN BEING A BIT BREEZIER THAN
YESTERDAY...VERY PLEASANT...DRY AND SUNNY SPRING WEATHER
CONTINUES WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
IN MOST SPOTS.

YOU CAN PROBABLY TELL BY HOW "EARLY" THIS DISCUSSION WAS ISSUED
BY THIS VERBOSE FORECASTER THAT WE ARE TALKING ABOUT AN
INCREDIBLY QUIET SHORT TERM HERE. EVEN UPON DIGGING DEEP INTO THE
DATA...THERE JUST DON`T APPEAR TO BE ANY "CATCHES" LURKING IN THE
WEEDS OF THIS SEEMINGLY "EASY" FORECAST. PUT SIMPLY...WE ARE
LOOKING AT A CONTINUATION OF "GUARANTEED DRY" WEATHER UNDER
WIDESPREAD CLEAR SKIES/SUNSHINE (LIKELY HARDLY A CLOUD AT ALL) AND
SEEMINGLY LITTLE TO NO RISK OF FROST OR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

AT ANY RATE...MOVING ON TO THE CURRENT SITUATION AS OF 3AM/08Z:
GOOD LUCK FINDING A CLOUD OUT THERE...AS INFRARED SATELLITE
CONFIRMS AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF CLEARING EXTENDING HUNDREDS OF
MILES IN MOST DIRECTIONS FROM THE CWA. THE MAIN EXCEPTION IS A
BATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS STEADILY SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MO AND POINTS EAST...ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MAINLY AFFECTED EASTERN IA EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM THAT THIS CONVECTION WELL TO OUR
EAST IS BEING DRIVEN BY A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER JET
STREAK DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
REGION. MEANWHILE...OUR LOCAL AREA IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY-
DOMINATED BY THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXPANSIVE/HIGH-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE...THE AXIS OF WHICH GENERALLY EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WAY UP INTO WESTERN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE
LOCALLY...THERE IS A BIT MORE OF A LIGHT BREEZE THAN LAST NIGHT
THANKS TO A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW CENTERED OVER
MICHIGAN AND A ROUGHLY 1023 MILLIBAR HIGH CENTERED OVER CO. IN
GENERAL...MOST PLACES ARE REPORTING A WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZE OF
5-10 MPH. CURRENT TEMPS ARE RUNNING ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES MILDER THAN
24 HOURS AGO WITH MAINLY UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:

EARLY THIS MORNING:
OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED 5-10 MPH BREEZES POSSIBLY BECOMING A
BIT MORE NORTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT
BRUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...IT`S SIMPLY A CONTINUED
QUIET/CLEAR NIGHT. DESPITE THESE CLEAR SKIES...AM NOT EXPECTING A
REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT WHEN A FEW SPOTS UNEXPECTEDLY GOT COLD ENOUGH
TO FLIRT WITH FROST FORMATION....WITH LOWS THIS MORNING MAINLY
EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT 40-45.

DAYTIME HOURS:
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 2-5 DEGREES
WARMER IN MOST OF THE CWA BUT WITH A BIT STRONGER NORTHERLY
BREEZE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...DRY/STABLE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED EXPANSIVE ROCKIES RIDGE AXIS EDGES
SLIGHTLY EAST (THIS IS A CLASSIC OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WITH THIS
RIDGE FLANKED BY BOTH AN EASTERN CONUS AND EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH).
AT THE SURFACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ESSENTIALLY STALL/WASH OUT OVER THE AREA...AS A ROUGHLY 1016
MILLIBAR RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY SLIDES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND
BECOMES CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA BY DAY`S END. UNDER
ALMOST 100 PERCENT SUNSHINE...LOW-LEVEL MIXING WILL BE FAIRLY
EFFICIENT...AND DESPITE A SLOWLY-WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
THROUGH THE DAY...THERE WILL BE SOME BREEZINESS ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY GUST POTENTIAL TO AROUND 20 AND POSSIBLY
25 MPH. OVERALL THOUGH...SUSTAINED SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY AS A
WHOLE SHOULD ONLY AVERAGE 10-15 MPH. TEMP-WISE...ABOUT THE ONLY
EFFECT OF THE WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BE TO KEEP THE FAR EASTERN
CWA POSSIBLY 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE FAR WEST. EVEN SO...NUDGED
UP HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN SOME AREAS...AIMING
FOR A RANGE FROM NEAR-70 EAST TO NEAR-75 WEST/SOUTHWEST. IF
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS MANAGE TO DROP DOWN INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S
COULD SEE A FEW SPOTS FLIRT WITH 25 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH)
VALUES FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT NEEDLESS TO SAY WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF
RECENT RAIN...CONCERNS ABOUT SIGNIFICANT FIRE DANGER ARE
REALISTICALLY OVER WITH FOR THE SPRING SEASON.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT:
ANOTHER VERY QUIET/CLEAR NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED...WITH ALMOST NO
CHANGE AT ALL IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN AS THE CWA REMAINS ON THE
DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE EXPANSIVE ROCKIES RIDGE. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE VERSUS THE ONGOING/CURRENT NIGHT WILL BE LIGHTER/MORE
VARIABLE BREEZES...WITH SPEEDS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AVERAGING
AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. THE VARIABILITY IN DIRECTION WILL BE
PROVIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...WHICH
GRADUALLY SLIDES SOUTH OF THE CWA AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...ALLOWING
INITIALLY NORTHERLY EARLY EVENING BREEZES TO TRANSITION TO A
VARIED MIX OF A LIGHT EASTERLY...SOUTHERLY AND EVEN WESTERLY
COMPONENT AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. ADMITTEDLY...AM A BIT CONCERNED
THAT THIS FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP COULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO DROP SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN EXPECTED. AS A HEDGE THIS
DIRECTION...NUDGED DOWN PREVIOUS LOWS VERY SLIGHTLY IN MOST
AREAS...BUT STILL AIMING MOST OF THE CWA NO COLDER THAN THE 40-44
RANGE. FORTUNATELY...EVEN IF THINGS DO TREND COLDER THAN
EXPECTED...WE CURRENTLY HAVE 4-8 DEGREES OF "WIGGLE ROOM" TO WORK
WITH BEFORE A "SNEAKY" FROST EVENT WOULD EVEN BECOME A
POSSIBILITY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY DAYTIME THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

OVERVIEW...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE PLAINS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING WARM DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY SLIDE FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BACK INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...BUT WITH
THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL
SKIES WILL BE PRETTY MUCH CLEAR. ALL OF THAT SUNSHINE WILL HELP
HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ON THURSDAY...AND THEN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY FRIDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES
FRIDAY NIGHT...BASED PRIMARILY ON THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z NAM. THESE
MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE AREA
THAT WOULD BE THE MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL SQUARELY OVER THE FORECAST AREA IT COULD GO EITHER
WAY BUT HAVE ELECTED TO CONTINUE TO CARRY DRY CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND OUR PREVIOUS FORECASTS. AT
LEAST THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR WEST FOR US TO
SEE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR RAIN UNTIL PROBABLY LATE ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...A SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH A WARM
FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO NARROW...BUT SHOULD STILL BE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. VORT
MAXES CAN BE SEEN ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE WESTERN CONUS UPPER
TROUGH AND WILL LIKELY INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
OVER EASTERN COLORADO INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. CAN NOT RULE OUT
A SPRINKLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR OR NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH AND THE DYNAMIC FORCING IT PROVIDES WILL SLIDE A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND WORKING IN CONCERT WITH A DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE REGION COULD SET OFF SOME ELEVATED LATE
NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...OUR POPS OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT SATURDAY
NIGHT MAY BE A HAIR OVERLY OPTIMISTIC FOR SEEING RAIN. HIGHS COULD
RANGE FROM NEAR 70 ACROSS OUR NORTH...WHICH WILL BE NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT...TO AROUND 80 OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

SUNDAY...THIS REALLY SEEMS LIKE THE DAY TO WATCH OUT FOR. THAT UPPER
SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STREAM NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO
SEE WHERE ALL THE FRONTS SET UP...BUT CERTAINLY COULD SEE A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY. WAY TO EARLY TO SAY MORE THAN THAT THIS FAR OUT. ESSENTIALLY
THIS IS JUST A DAY THAT YOU WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE ON. HIGHS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE SEE AND CONFIDENCE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IS FAIRLY LOW...BUT RIGHT NOW WILL CALL FOR MAINLY
UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...OVERALL THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK EAST NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN/OPEN UP WITH
TIME. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. MONDAY MAY STILL HAVE A PRETTY DECENT SHOT AT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IF THE SLOWER SYSTEM MOTION MATERIALIZES. THE
SUPERBLEND OF MODELS KEEPS A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...BUT THAT MAY BE OVERDONE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER AND MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY HIGH IN VFR CEILING (ESSENTIALLY 100
PERCENT CLEAR SKIES) AND IS MODERATELY HIGH IN VFR
VISIBILITY...AS EVEN BRIEF MVFR VSBY (HAZE) SEEMS PRETTY UNLIKELY
TONIGHT. AS FOR SURFACE WINDS...SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE
UNDER 12KT THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
ROUGHLY 4-6 HOUR PERIOD LATE THIS MORNING/THIS AFTERNOON WHEN
NORTHERLY GUST POTENTIAL COULD REACH 20KT. VERY LIGHT/VARIABLE
BREEZES RETURN TONIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH


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