Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 200455
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1155 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

THE REGION REMAINS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THANKS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION...AND RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE
ROCKIES. AN SMALL AREA OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
WAVE MOVING OUT OF WRN SD CONTINUES TO SLIDE SE...THOUGH IT HAS
BEEN DIMINISHING WITH TIME. COULD CLIP THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO HAVE A SMALL SLIGHT CHANCE POP GOING
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...CONTINUING TO SEE SRLY
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...SET UP BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING
ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM TX INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW LEVEL STRATUS
HAS BEEN STUBBORN OVER THE SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...KEEPING
TEMPS AT 3 PM IN THE LOWER/MID 70S...WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO 80 IN
AREAS WITH MORE SUN.

ANOTHER BOUT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAIN QUESTION LATE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL BE WHETHER ANY OF THAT ACTIVITY CAN DRIFT
FAR ENOUGH EAST TO AFFECT THE CWA. MOST MODELS SAY ITS NOT
LIKELY...BUT THE 12Z 4KM IS SHOWING THAT POTENTIAL. INHERITED A
FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NEB...AND NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH THAT NOTHING WILL HAPPEN TO TAKE THOSE POPS OUT.

LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY...THE MAIN STORY LIES WITH THE INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDING FURTHER EAST...BECOMING MORE
ORIENTATED N/S THROUGH THE ROCKIES. EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
ANY DISTURBANCES REMAINING OUTSIDE OF THE CWA. MODELS SHOWING
850MB TEMPS INCREASING FROM THE MID TEEN TO LOWER 20C RANGE THIS
MORNING TO THE MID 20/NEAR 30C RANGE BY THE END OF THE DAY
TOMORROW. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO HIGHS FOR
TOMORROW...WHICH WILL BE INFLUENCED BY WHAT DEWPOINTS END UP
BEING. AT THIS POINT EXPECTING THE NERN CORNER OF THE CWA TO HAVE
DEWPOINTS CLIMB TO NEAR 70/LOWER 70S...SO EXPECT THAT TEMPS WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING MUCH ABOVE THE MID 90S. FURTHER
SW...MODELS IN OK AGREEMENT SHOWING DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO THE LOWER
60S...AND EXPECTING TEMPS TO CLIMB TO NEAR 100. BOTH COMBINATIONS
RESULT IN PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100 DEGREES. HELD
OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT...WAS NOT GETTING WIDESPREAD
VALUES OF 105+ DEGREES...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING FOR THE MIDNIGHT
CREW TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL EXTEND
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WORKWEEK...WITH THIS RIDGE EVENTUALLY FLATTENING OUT LATE IN THE
WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER. WHILE THERE ARE SEVERAL SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
LOW...AND DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ANY
PARTICULAR DAY FOR THE TIME BEING.

STARTING MONDAY...EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BE EXTENDED INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A PAIR OF VERY HOT
DAYS ACROSS THE REGION...AND CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASED AFTERNOON
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO BETTER MATCH WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FIRE UP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MONDAY...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRANSITIONS OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND THE AXIS OF
A WEAK LLJ IS FOCUSED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH GOOD
DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT THE CAP TO BE MOSTLY ERODED BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND WHILE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED...WAS
ABLE TO JUSTIFY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
DESPITE THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING.

FOR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...EXPECT A SLIGHT MODIFICATION IN
THE LOCAL AIRMASS AS A COOL FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
...WHICH SHOULD ALSO PROVIDE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT A MODEST COOLING FOR MID WEEK...AS 850 MB
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT 5C IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...LIKELY DROPPING TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE JULY.

WHILE CONFIDENCE AGAIN IS LOW...THE GFS IS INDICATING A MCS MAY
DEVELOP FROM AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ORIGINATING IN THE SOUTHWEST
AND TRACKING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND ALTHOUGH
THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKS MUCH FURTHER NORTHWARD IN THE EC...DECIDED
TO INTRODUCE SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CREEP UP LATE WEEK...WITH YET
ANOTHER COOL FRONT TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS FRONT
MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT ONCE AGAIN...MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...WITH THE MAIN EFFECT BEING
POTENTIALLY SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD IS WHETHER OR NOT STRATUS WILL
REDEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK. MODELS HAVE NOT HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE STRATUS THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS/MORNINGS ESPECIALLY WITH HOW
LONG THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. THE HRRR AGAIN DEVELOPS STRATUS
TOWARDS MORNING...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN CWA WHEREAS THE NAM LLVL RH PROGS INDICATE THE BETTER
POTENTIAL TO THE EAST. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE HRRR AND
INCLUDED SOME IFR CIGS TOWARD MORNING WITH CLOUDS BREAKING AROUND
MID DAY. WILL MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE HOW THIS GOES. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...FAY


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