Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 211741
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1241 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 822 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

Frost advisory has been allowed to expire this morning. Expecting
temepratures to continue warming this morning diminishing the
threat for frost.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

Today...We are finally looking at the first dry day for many
areas in nearly a week. The big upper low continues to push
further northeast away from our forecast area and will be over
northern Minnesota by this afternoon. Drier west northwest flow
will prevail across the region today and with clear to mostly
clear skies we expect a nice warm up back into the upper 60s to
lower 70s.

Tonight...A weak fast moving shortwave trough will come off the
Colorado Rockies and into Kansas. This will bring at least some
chance of showers or a few weak thunderstorms back to our area,
primarily our Kansas zones.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

Monday morning will start off with a chance for showers and
thunderstorms across northern KS, but chances for storms will
increase across the entire area Monday afternoon as a shortwave
passes through. SPC has maintained a Marginal risk for the southeast
half of the CWA. I think this is reasonable with 500-1500 j/kg of
MUCAPE along a slow-moving front. Weak shear should really limit the
threat for severe storms, though.

This front moves south of the area Monday night, giving us breezy
north winds for Tuesday. There is still a slight chance for a few
light showers on Tuesday as the upper trough deepens across the
Midwest.

A couple days of dry weather are expected before a series of
shortwaves bring thunderstorms to the area Thursday night through
Saturday. While it doesn`t look like a particularly good setup for
severe weather, there is still considerable model variability in
this timeframe. Therefore it will be difficult to accurately
determine the severe potential and timing for at least a couple
days.

Temperatures will follow a gradual warming trend through the week
and will finally get back to near-seasonal levels (highs in the
upper 70s and lows in the 50s) by Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Monday)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

VFR Conditions expected through the TAF period. This afternoon a few
cumulus could develop during the afternoon. Will have generally
light winds out of the west and southwest throughout the period.
Clouds should move in after midnight at or above 10K ft
associated with any precip that develops to the south of I-80.
Some models are hinting that showers could be a bit farther north,
but do not have enough confidence to include VCTS in the TAF at
this time. Clouds and any lingering showers should depart in the
morning through part of the day on Monday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Petr
SHORT TERM...Wesely
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Petr


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