Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 031710
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1210 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 741 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

JUST WALKED IN THE DOOR AND DISCOVERED THAT ALTHOUGH FOG ACROSS
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS NO WORSE THAN THE LIGHT/NUISANCE
VARIETY...NDOR WEB CAMS OUT IN THE DAWSON COUNTY AREA ALONG WITH
AIRPORT OBS SUCH AS FROM LEXINGTON SUGGEST THAT A MORE
CONCENTRATED AREA OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY IN THE 1/2 TO 1 MILE
RANGE HAD DEVELOPED OUT IN THIS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WITH AT LEAST SMALL POCKETS OF DENSE FOG (1/4 MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITY) EMBEDDED WITHIN. FORTUNATELY...THIS HEAVIER FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED TO LAST BEYOND THE 830-900 AM TIME FRAME AT MOST. GIVEN
THAT THE WORST OF THESE CONDITIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ANOTHER 60-90 MINUTES OR SO...OPTED AGAINST A FORMAL DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...BUT DID ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPSGID) FOR
THE DAWSON/GOSPER AREA AND ALSO BEEFED UP THE MORNING FORECAST TO
REFLECT "AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY LESS THAN ONE MILE" IN THESE
WESTERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NOT A WHOLE LOT IN THIS FIRST 24 HOURS IN TERMS OF SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER. SOME PESKY SHOWERS FROM YORK TO HEBRON CONTINUE TO
HANG ON...AND SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH TAIL END OF SHORT
WAVE TO THE EAST AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH.
THOSE LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP IN THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND WEAK SURFACE HIGH IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA. ALSO SEEING SOME POCKETS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY DOWN
TO 2-4 MILES BUT NOTHING TOO LOW YET. WILL WATCH THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS AS POTENTIAL THICKER FOG POTENTIAL WITH
BEST RADIATIVE CHARACTERISTICS. ALL OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND
WHATEVER FOG THERE IS WILL LIFT/DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING.

THE CHALLENGE THIS PM IS WHETHER THERE IS REALLY MUCH CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED T-STORM. THE AREA WILL ACTUALLY START
TO SEE SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DO
BELIEVE THAT MAKES THE RISK FOR RAIN LESS THAN THURSDAY WITH THE
RIDGING ALOFT...BUT NOT SURE IT MEANS THERE IS NO CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER EITHER. WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW...AM JUST NOT CONFIDENT
TO COMPLETE YANK ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCE EVEN THOUGH COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE PRETTY SPARSE. HI RES HRRR ONE MODEL AT LEAST HINTING AT
SOME AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. WILL KEEP THE 15-20% CHANCES
ROLLING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THERE ARE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL.

THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE KEPT SOME LOW
POPS IN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT FEEL THAT
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
FINALLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR
LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST.

A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING THE MORNING...WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE.
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. DURING THE EVENING
THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON THE HIGH PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AND MOVE
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OUT MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUNDAY EVENING THE MUCAPES ARE OVER
3000 J/KG EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT QUICKLY DECREASE LATER IN THE
EVENING.

ON MONDAY A SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY. THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...KEEPING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
THROUGH WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE A FEW
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER WAVE...THE
SURFACE LOW AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION THERE COULD BE WITH THE
SYSTEM...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS REMAINS POSSIBLE TO START THE TAF
PERIOD AT KGRI...WITH VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE EXPECTED AT BOTH
TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

STRATUS...WITH A CEILING GENERALLY IN THE 1000-3000FT AGL
RANGE...PERSISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS OF MIDDAY...AND
KGRI CONTINUES TO OBSERVE A CEILING NEAR 2500FT AGL AS A RESULT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS STRATUS IS DIMINISHING AND AT
THIS TIME IT IS BELIEVED THIS STRATUS SHOULD DIMINISH ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT KGRI BY 19Z. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD
WITH BKN025 AT KGRI UNTIL 19Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THEREAFTER. THE CEILING HAS ALREADY LIFTED TO VFR LEVELS AT KEAR
AND AS A RESULT...KEPT VFR CONDITIONS GOING THROUGHOUT THE TAF FOR
KEAR. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT SOME SETS OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF STRATUS COULD BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING AROUND SUNRISE. AT THIS TIME
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SUCH CONDITIONS
IN THE TAFS...BUT CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR FUTURE TAF
ISSUANCES. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...BRYANT



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