Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 271050
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
550 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MORNING HOURS...
A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALL THAT
REMAIN OF THE EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS THAT ENTERED WESTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL FORECAST MODELS STILL HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING...BUT THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN RECENT TRENDS AND WILL
KEEP POPS LOW THIS MORNING AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE 06Z NAM AND HRRR
AND THE 00Z GFS AND NMM-WRF ALL SHOW THAT POTENTIAL OF WEAK
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT WITH
THIS MCS DIEING OUT SO QUICKLY AND THE ATMOSPHERE SO WORKED OVER
BY THE MCS...AM NOT READY TO BUY INTO MUCH ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WE WILL SEE A DRY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY FORM WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA NEAR THE COLORADO STATE LINE
WITH KANSAS AND NEBRASKA THE SAME AS YESTERDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 7 PM. THE BIG ISSUE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN BE THE STIFLING HEAT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE.

THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
UNLIKE LAST EVENING...THERE WILL BE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FROM A NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH AND A STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAKING IT
FURTHER EAST INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AND GIVE THUNDERSTORMS A
BETTER CHANCE OF KEEPING THEIR INTENSITY/SEVERITY UP AS THEY ENTER
OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE MOST
LIKELY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES...BUT EASTERN ZONES WILL ALSO SEE
A BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING IN ON THE THUNDERSTORM ACTION LATER
TONIGHT THANKS TO THE BETTER DYNAMIC SUPPORT/ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
JET. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES WHEN THE STORMS ARE AT THEIR
STRONGEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FROM A SYNOPTIC STANDPOINT...CERTAINLY THE MOST NOTICEABLE
WEATHER "HIGHLIGHT" OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD APPEARS TO BE A
SEASONABLY DECENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN SEVERAL DAYS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES FALLING SHORT OF 90
AND THUS BRINGING A MULTI-DAY RESPITE FROM HEAT INDEX VALUES
BREACHING THE 100-105+ THRESHOLD OF CONCERN.

PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORM-WISE: OUT OF THESE 11 DAY/NIGHT
FORECAST PERIODS...ONLY 1 (WEDNESDAY DAYTIME) MAINTAINS AN
OFFICIAL "DRY" FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE CWA AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA (ESPECIALLY
NEB ZONES) ACTUALLY STANDS A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE OF REMAINING DRY
DURING THE ENTIRE TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY DAYTIME TIME FRAME.
GETTING FARTHER OUT IN TIME INTO THE THURSDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY
PERIODS...AS IS TYPICAL AT THIS TIME RANGE THIS TIME OF
YEAR...VARIOUS...MAINLY 20-30 PERCENT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EXPAND TO INCLUDE A GREATER PORTION OF THE CWA...BUT BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL TRENDS...EVEN SOME OF THESE LOWER-END CHANCES ARE
LOOKING FAIRLY "IFFY" FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...AND IT`S WAY TOO EARLY
TO GET CAUGHT UP IN THEM. PUT ANOTHER WAY...THERE ARE JUST NO
PARTICULAR TIME FRAMES THAT STAND OUT AS HAVING A TRULY HEALTHY
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN AT THIS TIME...JUST LOTS OF LOWER-
END...UNCERTAIN CHANCES. SEVERE WEATHER-WISE...CANNOT COMPLETELY
DISCOUNT A MARGINAL RISK OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FLIRTING
WITH MAINLY THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING...BUT BASED ON THE CURRENT EXPECTATION OF A
FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE INVASION OF INCREASINGLY-STABLE AIR BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT...AGREE WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK IN
KEEPING THE VAST MAJORITY OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WITHIN THE REGION
FOCUSED JUST TO OUR SOUTH/EAST. FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD...A RETURN
OF AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR COULD BRING AT LEAST A
LIMITED CHANCE OF STRONG- SEVERE BACK INTO THE PICTURE POTENTIALLY
AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...BUT WEAK FORCING ARGUES THAT
PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME RANGE TO EVEN BEGIN
OFFERING ANY DETAILS.

TEMPERATURE-WISE: AS ALREADY MENTIONED ABOVE...PROBABLY THE MOST
NOTICEABLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE OF THE WEEK (IN THIS CASE A MODEST
COOL-DOWN) ARRIVES RIGHT AWAY TUESDAY BEHIND A SEASONABLY-DECENT
COLD FRONT...AND HAVE NUDGED HIGHS DOWN GENERALLY 1-3 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ONLY MID-80S IN MOST NEB ZONES...BUT ONE
MORE DAY OF 90-95 HEAT IN KS ZONES THANKS TO A LATER ARRIVAL OF
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. FROM WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY...A FAIRLY STEADY
TEMPERATURE REGIME IS THEN EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN NEBRASKA
GRADUALLY RISING BACK FROM THE MID-80S TO AROUND 90...AS KS ZONES
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 80S-MID 90S. AS FOR LOW TEMPS...TUESDAY NIGHT
APPEARS TO BE COOLEST OF THE WEEK...WITH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
NORTHERN/WESTERN CWA DROPPING INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S.

NOW TAKING A FAIRLY BRIEF CLOSER LOOK AT DAY-TO-DAY EXPECTATIONS
IN MAINLY 24-48 HOUR BLOCKS:

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: AS ALREADY MENTIONED...FROM A SYNOPTIC
FORCING PERSPECTIVE THIS IS THE MOST ACTIVE PART OF THESE 6
DAYS...AS A SEASONABLY-STOUT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CHURNS
FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TOWARD ONTARIO...AND IN TURN DRIVES A
DECENT (BY JULY STANDARDS) SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA...MARKED BY A NOTICEABLE INVASION OF 10-20 MPH NORTH
WINDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON. WHILE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ON A RAPID
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST DECLINE...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LINGERING
MORNING CONVECTION MAINLY IN EASTERN ZONES...AND THEN AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON-NIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY WITHIN THE
SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE CWA. HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
THESE POPS...AND VERY POSSIBLY NOT ENOUGH...AS THE LATEST 00Z 4KM
WRF NMM/ARW DEPICT ESSENTIALLY KEEPING ALL AFTERNOON STORM
POTENTIAL AT LEAST SLIGHTLY EAST/SOUTH OF THE CWA.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: AS THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DEPART NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA...A RETURN TO A MORE
TYPICAL WEAKLY-FORCED PATTERN ARRIVES...AS THE LOCAL AREA RESIDES
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS DAY`S COLD
FRONT...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT AND THUS HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST AREA-WIDE DURING THE DAY...AND FOR ALL
BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-FRIDAY NIGHT: DURING THESE 48 HOURS...FLOW ALOFT
TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH TIME AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE
RETROGRADES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS. AS
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW RETURNS...SO DOES AT LEAST MODEST
INSTABILITY AND THUS MORE BROAD-BRUSHED LOW-END POPS...BUT
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH.

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY DAYTIME: THE WEEKEND CURRENTLY FEATURES
ONLY A SMATTERING OF SLIGHT CHANCE 20 POPS WITHIN VARIOUS PARTS OF
THE CWA...AND PER THE LATEST ECMWF...EVEN THIS MAY BE
GENEROUS MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF LIMITED WEEKEND CONVECTION. CERTAINLY NOTHING TO
HANG ONE`S HAT ON YET IN WHAT SHOULD BE A
WEAKLY-FORCED...NORTHWEST-FLOW ALOFT PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN THING TO WATCH OUT FOR WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THESE STORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONG WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE WIND
TODAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...WESELY


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