Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 281140
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
540 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

BEEN ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...THANKS TO AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS BEEN STEADILY MAKING ITS WAY
EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS...PUSHED BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING INTO WRN PORTIONS OF WY. AT THE SURFACE...THE PATTERN OVER
THE CWA IS ONCE AGAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE...WITH A TROUGH AXIS SET
UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN LIGHT AND AT TIMES VARIABLE
WINDS. TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING AT 3 AM RANGE ANYWHERE FROM THE
MID 20S IN THE NORTH TO MID 40S IN THE FAR SWRN CORNER OF THE CWA.

THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD LIES WITH THAT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO WY THIS MORNING...AND THE
ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA. MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...SHOWING IT MOVING INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE NEAR MIDDAY
TODAY...BY 00Z THIS EVENING THE TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO BE EXTENDING
THROUGH THE HEART OF THE CWA...BEFORE PUSHING OFF TO THE MISSOURI
RIVER AREA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A WEAKER SECOND MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE QUICK ON THE HEELS OF THE MAIN ONE IS FORECAST TO BE
WORKING INTO THE AREA AS WE GET INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY. EVEN WITH THERE ACTUALLY BEING A SYSTEM TO TALK
ABOUT...MODELS /INCLUDING THE MORE SHORT TERM HIRES LIKE THE WRF/
OVERALL CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING CONDITIONS
REMAINING DRY...JUST NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THAT
BEING SAID...SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL OF SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIP FALLING THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...BUT KEEP THAT SIGNAL
JUST OUTSIDE THE N/NERN BORDERS OF THE CWA. WILL BE SOMETHING FOR
THE DAY SHIFT TO MONITOR WITH THE 12Z RUN OF MODELS THIS MORNING.

AT THE SFC...WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THIS
MORNING...BEFORE THE WIND SHIFT OF THE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING
THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE CWA...WHICH MODELS SHOW PUSHING
ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE CWA BY MID MORNING AND MAKING IT TO THE
ERN FRINGE OF THE CWA AROUND MIDDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN A PUSH OF
GUSTY W/NWRLY WINDS /15 TO 25 MPH IS FORECAST/...BUT THE MAIN PUSH
OF COLDER AIR IS LAGGING BEHIND. TEMPS ALOFT COOL A TOUCH DURING
THE DAY...BUT HIGHS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE...THANKS TO THE MILD AIR/DOWNSLOPING WINDS. NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS WARM AS TUESDAY...BUT TRENDED HIGHS TOWARD THE MAV AND
RAP /WHICH DID PRETTY WELL TUESDAY/...WHICH PUTS THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA AT LEAST INTO THE MID 60S /THE EXCEPTION AGAIN IS THE
E/NERN PORTIONS/...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 FORECAST IN NC KS. IF TEMPS
PAN OUT AS FORECAST...IT WOULD SET A NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPS IN
GRAND ISLAND. BUT CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST...AS THERE ARE
MODELS THAT SAY IT WILL FALL SHORT OF/MAYBE TIE THE RECORD OF 63
DEGREES. THE RECORD AT HASTINGS IS 69 DEGREES...AND THE RAP IS
BASICALLY THE ONLY ONE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO MAKE A
RUN AT THAT RECORD. FIRE WX CONCERNS ARISE AGAIN...SEE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...ONE MIGHT THINK THAT WINDS WE HAVE THIS
AFTERNOON WOULD TAPER OFF...BUT WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION...BETTER PRESSURE RISES/TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO TAP INTO...THATS NOT THE CASE. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND SPEEDS...WHICH WILL BE ON A SECOND INCREASE
THIS EVENING...AND BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT SPEEDS IN THE 25 TO 30
MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS OUR SC NEB COUNTIES.
LOOKS TO REMAIN BREEZY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE WILL BE NOTED
OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AT 12Z THURSDAY...THUS HELPING PROVIDE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
PROMOTES QUASI-ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS ALLOWING FOR
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA AS WE HEAD
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL KEEP US DRY
THURSDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...AND SUCH
HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY...SATURDAY
NIGHT AND PERHAPS EARLY SUNDAY...UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
PROMOTE ENOUGH OMEGA FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...INCLUDING OUR CWA. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BY SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...AGAIN BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION THEN CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING EAST...ALONG THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH AXIS...AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT THE NAM...WHICH THROUGH 84 HOURS IS JUST NOW UP TO
12Z SATURDAY...APPEARS TO KEEP THE PRIMARY AXIS OF OMEGA WELL TO
OUR SOUTHEAST AND AS A RESULT...KEEPS US DRY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE VERY INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE NAM UNFOLDS
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW RUNS...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DATA FROM
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO PRESENT YET
ANOTHER INCREASE IN POPS FOR THIS WEEKEND AND 30-60% POPS ARE NOW
SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS RELEGATED
TO OUR SOUTHEAST WHICH IS WHERE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST
OMEGA AND MOST EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION WILL RESIDE
DURING THIS UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM.

ONCE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END ON SUNDAY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE OBSERVED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION COULD START OUT AS RAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT...FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...SUGGEST THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE FOR SNOWFALL AT THE SURFACE BY 12Z SATURDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. THAT SAID...WITH A CONTINUED
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY- LAYER WIND FIELD EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL AT LEAST AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY NEAR THE SURFACE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND
SUPERBLEND RESPONDED BY PROVIDING SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
AND LOW 40S. THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS FROM MULTIPLE SETS OF GUIDANCE
THAT THIS TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IS TOO HIGH AND NEEDS
TO BE REDUCED BY 4-5 DEGREES. WENT AHEAD WITH A ~2 DEGREE DECREASE
FROM THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION FOR SATURDAY HIGHS TO ACCOUNT OF
THIS...BUT EVEN NOW THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SATURDAY
TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND GIVEN
THIS...DESPITE FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AND EC SUGGESTING SNOWFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION
TYPE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...FIND IT HARD TO JUSTIFY AN ALL-SNOW
FORECAST WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURE READINGS SO HIGH. AS A
RESULT...OPTED TO GO WITH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...WITH ALL SNOW THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AS DIABATIC HEATING IS LOST AND A BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE
CLEARS THE AREA. OBVIOUSLY THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS ANY MORE OF A DECREASE IN
SATURDAYS TEMPERATURE FORECAST WOULD SUGGEST MORE SNOW THAN RAIN
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION.

OBVIOUSLY STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE HEAVILY
DEPENDENT UPON HOW MUCH SNOWFALL IS REALIZED DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION
TYPE AND RESULTANT SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...IT STILL REMAINS TOO EARLY TO GET SPECIFIC ON SNOW
AMOUNTS IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THAT SAID...ONCE AGAIN TAKING
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC AT FACE VALUE SUGGESTS ADVISORY-WORTHY
ACCUMULATION OF ~3 INCHES COULD BE REALIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ALONE...DESPITE WHAT
HAPPENS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE IS NOW
SUGGESTING THAT AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT POST-FROPA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL PROMOTE A STRONG WIND...SUSTAINED
AT AROUND 18KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS WIND...WORKING IN CONCERT
WITH THE SNOWFALL...WOULD LIKELY CREATE AT LEAST PERIODIC
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN BLOWING SNOW. SO...GIVEN THE FACT THAT
WE NOW HAVE "LIKELY" POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND...AND THE FACT THAT IT NOW APPEARS WE HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR BLOWING SNOW AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTION...FEEL IT
PRUDENT TO INTRODUCE A MENTION OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION DUE TO BLOWING SNOW FOR THIS WEEKEND IN THE
HWO.

FINALLY...HIGHS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S...BUT WILL
FALL INTO THE 20S POST-FROPA STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO START THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THESE READINGS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD LIES WITH WINDS. WINDS
REMAIN ON THE LIGHT AND AT TIMES VARIABLE SIDE EARLY THIS
MORNING THANKS TO A WEAKER SURFACE PATTERN IN PLACE...AND AT LEAST
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. DEBATED THROWING IN A
MENTION OF LLWS FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT MODELS KEEP THE STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT TO THE WEST OF THE TERMINAL AREAS...SO KEPT OUT OF
THIS TAF. THIS MORNING...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING EAST WILL
BRING MORE WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA...THEN BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AND 25 TO 30 MPH
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS...BUT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. MODELS ALSO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER CEILINGS ACCOMPANYING THE
COLDER AIR PUSH TONIGHT...SO INSERTED MVFR CEILINGS AT BOTH
TERMINALS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

GUSTY W/NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE
AGAIN FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
FORECAST TO FALL TO NEAR 30 DEGREES WILL RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH
RANGE WITH THOSE GUSTY WINDS WILL LIE ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF A LEXINGTON NEB TO BELOIT KS LINE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

YET ANOTHER DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TODAY. AVERAGE HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE MAINLY IN THE MID
30S...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TODAY TO REACH INTO THE 60S /NEAR 70
POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN LOCATIONS/. HERE IS THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE INFORMATION FOR TODAY...WITH GRAND ISLAND CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BREAK THAT RECORD...BUT HASTINGS FORECAST TO FALL A
BIT SHORT.

GRAND ISLAND: RECORD IS 63 DEGREES IN 1986. FORECAST HIGH: 65
HASTINGS: RECORD IS 69 DEGREES IN 1931. FORECAST HIGH: 65

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ADP
FIRE WEATHER...ADP
CLIMATE...ADP


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