Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 270950
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
450 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
TODAY/TONIGHT...AS WELL AS DETERMINING HIGH TEMPERATURES.

A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO SOMETIMES MODERATE PRECIPITATION LIES TO
THE WEST...PART OF A JET-INDUCED AREA OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT EAST OVER OUR AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A RIDGE TO
THE WEST APPROACHES. MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND
PLACEMENT...AND I BROAD-BRUSHED CHANCES AS WELL AS KEPT CHANCES
LOW. WE WILL HAVE A SHOT OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR WEST AS
WELL...AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LITTLE
SNOW...BUT AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH. I
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS
THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT TO THE WEST DOES NOT APPEAR TO GET HERE
IN TIME TO BUMP UP TEMPERATURES MUCH...AND SKY COVER SHOULD
PREVENT A LOT OF WARMING FROM OCCURRING. WENT WITH HI RES NMM FOR
HIGHS AND ALSO BUMPED UP LOWS A BIT IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST CWA
TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY FAR ENOUGH EAST TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS MUCH AND MAY HAVE A HARD TIME
DROPPING BELOW 40. WIND MAY REALLY DROP OFF AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES AND WE MIGHT GET SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT JUST TO THE
WEST...OR EVEN ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA...ACCORDING TO THE
SREF...BUT LEFT THIS OUT FOR NOW AS THE FOCUS SEEMS TO BE JUST
WEST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS LIE WITH LATE WEEKEND PRECIP CHANCES/FIRE
WEATHER...THEN MID WEEK PRECIP CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...SHOWING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND AS THE CWA SITS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SET UP
BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
SLIDING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A WIDE
RANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA. STARTING THE DAY WITH
LIGHTER WINDS...A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE HIGH
PLAINS AND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL BRING
INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY WINDS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS
SHOW WARMER TEMPS ALOFT STARTING TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE EAST TO MID 70S IN THE FAR
WEST.

A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE FORECAST AS WE GET INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE
ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES
CONTINUES TO PUSH SE SAT NIGHT...AND BY SUNRISE SUN HAS EMERGED ONTO
THE PLAINS...WITH MODELS SHOWING IT SLIDING THROUGH OUR AREA DURING
THE DAY. HAD INHERITED A MENTION OF SPRINKLES...BUT DECIDED TO
INSERT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN/ERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WITH SPRINKLES REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THAT AREA. THE ECMWF
REMAINS ON THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SIDE WITH QPF VALUES...WITH OTHERS
SHOWING LITTLE/NOTHING...SO MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS A CONCERN.
THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO USHER IN A SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING A SWITCH TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND A DRIER AIR
MASS DURING THE DAY. THE AFTERNOON HOURS WERE KEPT DRY...AND FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARISE. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING WELL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE RESULTING RH VALUES RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO MID
20S...AND WITH THE GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED...WILL CONTINUE THE
MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE NEXT WORK WEEK...OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WERE MADE. THE FORECAST FOR MON/TUE REMAINS DRY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW SET UP ON MON IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAYS DISTURBANCE...WHICH
BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON TUES AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE PUSHES INTO THE
ROCKIES. EXPECTING A WARM UP IN TEMPS MON/TUES...WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING INCREASING TEMPS ALOFT...AND GENERALLY S TO SWRLY
WINDS. HIGHS BOTH DAYS ARE FORECAST GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES...INCLUDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...RETURNS TO
THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS SRN CANADA MOVES THROUGH THE
NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE ARE SOME DETAILS TO WORK OUT WITH
MODELS...INCLUDING THE OVERALL EXTENT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT. AT THIS POINT...MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE BEST CHANCES WOULD COME DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SO DO HAVE THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY. HIGHS FOR
WED ARE FORECAST TO FALL BACK INTO THE 60S.

THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
FORECAST IN HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AS JET INDUCED
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. WE COULD GET SOME LIGHT SHOWER AND PERHAPS
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



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