Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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675
FXUS63 KGID 121812
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1212 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS DIVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST CONUS CAUSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ARE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR EAST OF THE AREA.
REGARDLESS...CLOUDS DURING THE DAY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
KEEP THE DAY COOL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S OVER MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH MID 30S IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

TONIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE FORECAST WITH FORECASTED LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL HELP A
BIT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL PUSH COLDER AIR IN.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND MOVE EASTWARD. WHILE THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN IN
THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW...THE LOSS OF CLOUD ICE WILL CAUSE THE MAIN
PRECIP TYPE TO EVOLVE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE. CURRENTLY CONFIDENCE IS
NOT OVERLY HIGH THAT THIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...BUT PATCHY LIGHT
SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE
CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SNOW CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THE LAYER OF MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW DURING THE DAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY COLD ALOFT AND GET CLOSE TO -10 DEGREES C.
THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH ACCUMULATION OF EITHER SNOW OR ICE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
READINGS ONLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THERE WILL BE SOME WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY FALL OFF A FEW DEGREES. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT CONTINUES TO HAVE
A LITTLE PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR NORTH WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
THE PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY AND WITH A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE THE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE MOISTURE AND THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE PRECIPITATION IN THE KANSAS COUNTIES AND FAR
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT THERE COULD
BE A LITTLE SNOW TOWARD MORNING...BUT MOSTLY WILL BE SOME LIGHT
RAIN.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THERE WILL BE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH BUT
EXPECT THERE TO BE DRY CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE WARM ADVECTION MUCH
OF THE TIME. EXPECT THERE TO BE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BY THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

ALTHOUGH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THE MAJORITY OF THE
TAF PERIOD AT BOTH SITES (ESPECIALLY KEAR)...CONFIDENCE IN THE
"FINER DETAILS" OF CEILING/VISIBILITY IS ONLY MODEST. HERE IS A
CLOSER LOOK:

CEILING: HAVE GENERALLY MAINTAINED THE THEME FROM PREVIOUS
ISSUANCE...WITH MVFR PREVAILING THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT ESPECIALLY KGRI COULD ALSO
OBSERVE AT LEAST BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR (INCLUDING WITHIN THESE FIRST
FEW HOURS) AND ALSO VFR (WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR THIS
EVENING IF IT DOES).

VISIBILITY: CURRENTLY EXPECT VFR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
THE MOST PART. HOWEVER...A NARROW...TRANSIENT BAND OF FOG COULD
DROP ONE OR BOTH SITES TO AT LEAST MVFR FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS
AFTERNOON. LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE AN OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITY...BUT FOR NOW KEPT
PREVAILING LOW-END VFR.

PRECIPITATION: ALTHOUGH LEGITIMATE MEASURABLE PRECIP IS FAIRLY
UNLIKELY AT BOTH SITES...ESPECIALLY KEAR STANDS A CHANCE OF
OBSERVING SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AM...AND HAVE INTRODUCED THIS MENTION. KEPT THIS OUT FOR KGRI (AT
LEAST FOR NOW)...AS IT APPEARS LESS LIKELY TO OCCUR THERE.

WIND: AS USUAL...CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER HERE. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR/BELOW 12KT THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD...BEFORE STARTING TO PICK UP A BIT LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
DIRECTION WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM MORE NORTHERLY THIS
AFTERNOON...TO MORE EASTERLY THIS EVENING...TO SOUTHEASTERLY LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BILLINGS WRIGHT
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



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