Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 210456
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1156 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

BEEN AN QUIET...WARMER AND AT TIMES BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING W/NWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER
LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANCHORED MAINLY OVER SRN CO AND NM. AT THE SFC...SEEING A TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL SD AND INTO THE SANDHILLS AND WRN
KS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DRAPED ROUGHLY FROM ERN TX INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THE RESULTANT SRLY WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING BETWEEN
20 AND 25 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON
HAVE REMAINED IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND 3 PM TEMPS RANGE
FROM THE MID 80S IN THE N/NE /WHERE THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS STUCK
AROUND LONGER/...TO THE UPPER 90S IN THE SW. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR SWRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHICH HAVE STEEPER LAPSE RATES...AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW CU OUT THERE. NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF
THE QUESTION AN ISOLATED STORM COULD DEVELOP AND CLIP THE CORNER
OF THE CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT ANY MENTION
AT THIS POINT.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE MAIN STORY LIES
WITH TOMORROWS HEAT. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDING A BIT
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH IT RUNNING THROUGH AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER BUMP UP IN TEMPS ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH DIFFERENCE IN DEWPOINTS COMPARED TO
TODAY...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
WELL INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S. THE COMBO OF FORECAST
T/DPTS HAS RESULTED IN HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR/ABOVE 105 DEGREES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...SO A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO START THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH ANOTHER HOT DAY ON
TAP FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE EXPECTED COOL FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
ACROSS THE PLAINS...THERE COULD END UP BEING QUITE A GRADIENT IN
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WITH POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF. LATEST MODEL
DATA IS A BIT QUICKER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT...SO HELD
OFF ON ISSUING ANY HEADLINES FOR THE TIME BEING TO ALLOW CURRENT
ADVISORY FOR MONDAY TO PASS AS WELL AS TO ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
MODEL DATA TO HELP REFINE THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN A
SUBSEQUENT HEAT ADVISORY.

THEREAFTER...EXPECT A 5-7C DROP IN 850 TEMPS BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TO RESULT IN A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THERE WILL BE NO
NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS DESPITE STRONG RIDGING
PERSISTING ALOFT. LATE IN THE PERIOD...EXPECT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF BRITISH COLUMBIA TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER BY THE END OF THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY PUSHING
ANOTHER COOL FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. WHILE NOT UNSEASONABLY COOL...COULD SEE A RETURN TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...REMOVED POPS
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HINTED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION...BUT LARGELY MAINTAINED REMAINDER OF SMALL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THAT SAID...AS THERE WILL
BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION TO WORK WITH THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIODS... FORCING IS GENERALLY WEAK AND THE CAP
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS ANY ACTIVITY DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS...WITH THE FOCUS OF ANY POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY ELEVATED AND DURING THE EVENING
THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING QUIET FOR THE
TAFS. A PERIOD OF LLWS IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS AND SFC WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10KTS OR SO. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
15KTS AND THE HOT CONDITIONS REALLY SETTLE IN. MODELS ARE HIT OR
MISS ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL HEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND ONLY
CARRIED A VCTS FOR KEAR ATTM.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...FAY


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