Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 212358
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
558 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

HAVE SEEN QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...WITH UPPER AIR
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SPINS OVER THE DESERT SW. AT THE SFC...THE CWA IS SET UP
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAPED THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS...RESULTING IN CONTINUED SRLY WINDS. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS WHICH HAS BEEN
GRADUALLY MAKING ITS WAY NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...AND IN THE PAST
FEW HOURS HAS FINALLY MADE IT INTO THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THE LOWER LEVEL RH FIELDS OF THE RAP/NAM HAVE BEEN HANDLING ITS
PROGRESSION WELL TODAY. TEMPS HAVE WARMED A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED
TODAY...3 PM OBS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE ODX/LXN/PHG
AREAS...MID TO UPPER 40S CENTRAL AND LOCATIONS EAST ALONG THE
STATE LINE...STILL SOME UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY MORNING...THE MAIN CONCERN IS GOING TO LIE WITH THIS
CLOUD COVER...AND FOG POTENTIAL. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE NAM/RAP
FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE LL STRATUS...WHICH KEEPS CREEPING IT
NORTH...THEN GIVES IT A SHOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. EXPECTING LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE OVERALL SFC
PATTERN...WINDS REMAINING SRLY WITH SPEEDS ARND 10 MPH. MODELS
THIS MORNING STARTING SHOWING BETTER POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG...MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA...AREAS AFFECTED BY
STRATUS TODAY OR ON THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS TONIGHT. MET/MAV/LAV
NOT LENDING MUCH SUPPORT TO LOWER VISIBILITIES OR CEILINGS...BUT
DID INSERT A MENTION OF PATCHY AND AREAS OF FOG...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EVENING CREW WILL BE MONITORING TRENDS CLOSELY...AS
MODELS DEPICTED LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE CWA BEING AFFECT
FIRST...WILL SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

FOR TOMORROW...OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LINGERING FOG IN
THE MORNING...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THAT MAIN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SW...BUT BY THE END
OF THE DAY STILL REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA IN TX. AM BEING
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE CLOUD COVER DIMINISHING IN THE MORNING...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WARMER TEMPS /5+ DEGREES/ ALOFT MOVING
INTO THE REGION...AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM THE
SOUTH /PERHAPS A TOUCH OF A WRLY COMPONENT/...SATURDAY STILL
LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL. WITH MANY
LOCATIONS EXCEEDING EXPECTATIONS TODAY...DID TREND HIGHS UP A
BIT...NEAR THE MAV GUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS WIDESPREAD MID
50S...AND READINGS NEAR 60 IN THE FAR S/SWRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

CONTINUED DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH
TEMPERATURES FLUCTUATING NEAR OR JUST BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH
NEXT WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR NEXT THURSDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY HOLD DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES
JUST BELOW FREEZING THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AT THE BIGGER PICTURE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STEER A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TO FINISH OFF THE WEEKEND. WHILE THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SOME MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF KANSAS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AS THE NAM
WAS TOO AGGRESSIVE TRYING TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE THIS
MORNING ACROSS OUR LOCAL AREA...AND THINK THAT THIS IS ALSO THE
CASE FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
SINCE THE AXIS OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EVEN FURTHER EAST THAN WHAT WAS
MODELED FOR TODAY. OTHERWISE...DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT...WITH ANY POST
FRONTAL PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS IS EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. THEREAFTER...EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH THIS
GENERALLY COOL WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE
A BRIEF PLUNGE ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS MODELS ARE KEYING IN ON A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WHICH WILL PLUNGE TEMPERATURES DOWN
10-15F FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK. THANKFULLY...THE BRUNT OF THIS
COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE FOCUSED FURTHER EAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE AFTER A DAY OR TWO...AS
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST COAST BREAKS DOWN AND
MORE ZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALOFT. WHILE INITIALLY WE HAD
SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW WITH THIS SECONDARY SHOT OF COLD AIR
ON THANKSGIVING DAY...MODELS ARE NOW KEEPING THE AREA DRY AND
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIP
IS NOW ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MVFR STATUS WILL BE ON THE BRINK OF REACHING THE
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY GRI. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT STRATUS
WILL STOP JUST SHORT OF THE TERMINALS...COMING UP FROM THE
SOUTH...AND THEN SHOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY. WIND MAY START WITH AN EAST COMPONENT...BUT VEER SOUTH
TONIGHT...AND WILL STAY LIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...HEINLEIN


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