Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 111056
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
556 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A CONTINUED WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS TO RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR OR
ABOVE 100 DEGREES IN SPOTS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WARM AND MOIST AIR
WILL RESULT IN AMPLE INSTABILITY AS WELL...WITH THE COMBINATION OF
A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND A WEAK LLJ
TONIGHT RESULTING IN SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM FORMATION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA
WILL REMAINED CAPPED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH THIS
SETUP...MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WHEN
THE SOME ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY FIRE UP NEAR THE WARM
FRONT.

OTHERWISE...FOR THE MORNING HOURS...EXPECT THE CONVECTION ROLLING
OFF THE HIGH PLAINS AND SKIRTING AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92
THIS MORNING TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH MAINLY DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS THAT HAS FORMED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BURNS OFF. THAT SAID...BEFORE THE
CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHIFTS EAST...COULD SEE SOME
ENHANCEMENT THANKS TO A 40 KT LLJ FEEDING INTO THE CONVECTION.
THEN LATER TODAY ONCE THIS CONVECTION SHIFTS EAST...AND AS THE CAP
ERODES AND THE WARM FRONT BECOMES THE MAIN FOCUS...EXPECT SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BEING ENHANCED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BY ANOTHER
DEVELOPING WEAK LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
TEMPERATURES.

A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON THE MUCAPE IS OVER 4000 J/KG IN THE EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA STANDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR THERE TO
BE SOME LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. BY EVENING...THE FRONT IS
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. THE MUCAPE DIMINISHES DURING THE EVENING HOURS
AND BY LATE EVENING THE SEVERE CHANCES SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHED.

BY SUNDAY MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...MOST
OF THE MODELS HAVE AT LEAST SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AROUND THE
AREA. WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO SEE
IF THE TREND IS FOR LESS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS DEVELOPING IN THE HUDSON
BAY AREA STARTS TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
UPPER LOW WILL IMPACT WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY AND BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

BY MONDAY NIGHT A COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA. THIS GRADUALLY PUSHES PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AND BRINGS COOLER AIR TO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

MVFR STRATUS AND SOME LLWS WILL PERSIST AT THE TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PASS
BY TO THE NORTH. LATER THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 12 KTS EXPECTED AS THE LOCAL
AREA REMAINS POSITIONED IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. BY EARLY EVENING...CLOUDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN THICKEN AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORM ALONG A WARM
FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF ANY
ACTIVITY AT THE TERMINALS THEMSELVES...OPTED TO GO WITH A CB GROUP
AND VCTS FOR THE TIME BEING AFT 12/03Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ROSSI


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