Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 290000
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
700 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE MAIN CONCERN
ALONG WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM 12Z IS
SHOWING RIDGING OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN U.S. WITH TROUGHING IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. CHECKING THE FINER DETAILS...THERE IS A
CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER WESTERN WYOMING AND SUBTLE SHORT WAVES OVER
THE ROCKIES...ALL MOVING EAST. 500MB 12-HOUR HEIGHT FALLS WERE A
MODEST 10-20 METERS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AT THE SURFACE...GOOD
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
LOW PRESSURE WEST. DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 60 OVER THE CWA.
CHECKING THE SEVERE PARAMETERS ON THE SPC MESO-ANALYSIS
PAGE...INSTABLITY AND DEEP LATER SHEAR BOTH LACKING AT PRESENT.  AT
2 PM LOCAL TIME THE RADAR WAS FAIRLY QUIET OVER THE CWA WITH JUST A
FEW RANDOM CELLS HERE AND THERE. AT 8 AM THIS MORNING WE DID HAVE AN
AREA OF SUB SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE KS PART OF OUR CWA AND IT
TOOK UNTIL NOW TO GET THIS ACTIVITY PUSHED EAST.  NONE OF THE MODELS
I LOOKED AT REALLY CAUGHT THIS CONVECTION WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN
WHAT WILL OCCUR IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING TOWARDS OUR AREA...THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERAL CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS AGREE ON DEVELOPING TSTMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND THEN
MOVING THEM EAST INTO OUR REGION LATER THIS EVENING. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE AND WILL GO WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE 12Z 4KM WRF WEAKENS
THE CONVECTION AS IT PUSHES INTO OUR CWA BUT THE HRRR...NMM AND ARW
ALL HOLD IT TOGETHER...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT. STILL ENOUGH TIME LEFT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE AND VARIOUS
FORECAST PARAMETERS FOR INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...ARE POINTING TO AT
LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE MAINLY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA.

WILL LOWER POPS A BIT FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THEN RETURN
DURING THE DAYTIME FRIDAY WITH POST FRONTAL ACTIVITY EXPECTED. ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD BE SUB-SEVERE FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...IT WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. WE WILL
ALSO SEE WINDS BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

CHANGING WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE AREA WILL BE QUITE NOTICABLE AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL
SET UP AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE SOME POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT...MAIN CHANGE WILL BE
COOLER TEMPERATURES...ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY. THAT
IS FOLLOWED UP BY A COOL SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AT MANY
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW BY AFTERNOON
AND START A WARM-UP WITH THE UPPER RIDGING THROUGH TUESDAY. ASIDE
FROM WARMING TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WILL
BE INCREASING WIND FROM THE SOUTH. MAY NOT BE TERRIBLY WINDY...BUT
CERTAINLY A NOTICABLE BREEZE EACH DAY...BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY AT LEAST. RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
TUESDAY LOOK VERY SLIM. BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL
JET IN THE REGION AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL START TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE PICTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR CEILINGS AS THIS WILL DEPEND ON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. VISIBILITY WOULD BE LOWER IF A THUNDERSTORM
PASSES OVERHEAD...BUT THIS WOULD BE TOO RANDOM TO PREDICT AT THIS
JUNCTURE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND ALSO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OCCURRING DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EWALD
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...HEINLEIN


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