Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 290617
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
117 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 117 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

We will be cancelling Severe Thunderstorm Watch 307 for all
affected counties in our CWA shortly. We have seen several
measured gusts of 40-50 MPH, but needless to say this line of
storms lost some punch before it moved into the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

This is a rather complex forecast period with the primary concern
centering around the chance of thunderstorms tonight.

Most forecast models indicate that thunderstorms will develop
across portions of western Nebraska and the north central Nebraska
sandhills region this evening. The question then becomes will
these thunderstorms hold together through the overnight hours as
they track southeast and eventually into our forecast area. The
best environment for thunderstorms through the overnight hours
will be across our western zones and this is where we will
continue to carry the highest chances. However, this is not a sure
bet with the latest 12z ECMWF basically dry for nearly our entire forecast
area through 7 am Wednesday. The 12z NAM and GFS are the most
optimistic in our area finally catching some rain with the
highest likelihood across western zones. Some of the WRF models
also indicate an MCS tracking into our west and then dieing out
late tonight. Most of our counties are in need of precipitation
so lets hope these storms can hold together tonight.

There will be plenty of elevated CAPE and deep layer shear for a
few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms tonight. The best
bet for the stronger storms will be earlier on in the MCS
life cycle...which will thus favor western zones. In
addition...a wind threat tends to be the primary threat from most
MCS events and wind will be the primary threat tonight.

Wednesday...Thunderstorms will remain possible especially along
old outflow boundaries. The greatest threat of thunderstorms on
Wednesday will slide south through the day and should be more over
Kansas by later in the day.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

We do not expect any big changes in the current pattern...which
will continue to support the chance for isolated to scattered
thunderstorms primarily in the evening and overnight hours. These
will be forced by generally weak shortwaves and so will be fairly
hit and miss through the period. However...heavy rain will
certainly be possible for areas that can get under some of these
often fairly slow moving thunderstorms...but again coverage area
may be lacking.

Overall the high temperatures should be more pleasant than what we
had through most of June with highs only around 80 to the lower
80s on most days. These temperatures are actually a bit below
normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 117 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

General overview:
Confidence is fairly high in VFR ceiling/visibility through the
period, although could foresee a period of low-end VFR/near-MVFR
ceiling for a time in the wake of the line of
showers/thunderstorms currently passing through the area. The
potential exists for additional rain/thunderstorm activity beyond
these next few hours, but confidence is too low in
timing/occurrence to even advertise a generic "vicinity" (VCTS)
mention at this time.

Precipitation/thunderstorms:
Will carry a 2-hour TEMPO group right off the bat to cover the
ongoing/weakening line of showers/thunderstorms currently passing
through the area, and associated erratic gusts up to around 30kt.
Beyond these first few hours, confidence is too low in additional
thunderstorm activity during the period to advertise anything yet.

Surface wind:
Other than the obvious thunderstorm outflow effects currently
ongoing, speeds through the majority of the period should average
below 12kt, mainly from a southeast direction.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
SHORT TERM...Wesely
LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...Fay


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