Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 261544
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
944 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

DONT SEE ANY REAL NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FCST BASED ON
MORNING OBS/TRENDS. WE WILL BE MONITORING WINDS/TEMPS/RH. THINK WE
WILL JUST SKIRT BY WITHOUT NEEDING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR SW
COUNTIES...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 1 OR 2 HRS OF
WINDS/RH EXCEEDING CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING CONTINUED WELL AMPLIFIED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN
RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND TROUGHING MOVING
TOWARD THE EAST COAST. HAVE HAD A BATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS PASS
RIGHT THROUGH THE CWA...WITH HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS JUST OUTSIDE THE
BORDERS...WITH CURRENT SKIES BEING MOSTLY CLEAR. AT THE
SFC...TEMPS HAVE RISEN/REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT AS A
WARMER AIR MASS HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY EAST...AND AS OF 3 AM
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

LOOKING AT THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF TODAY/TONIGHT...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT THERE REALLY ISNT ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH A LACK OF ANY NOTABLE DISTURBANCES IN THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE.

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM LIES WITH THE DAYTIME HOURS
TODAY...WITH WINDS/FIRE WX CONCERNS. AT THE SFC...THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...USHERING IN WRLY WINDS FOR AT LEAST THE WRN HALF OF THE
CWA BY SUNRISE. EXPECTING THAT BY MID MORNING THE ERN HALF WILL
SWITCH TO THE WEST...AND AS WE APPROACH MIDDAY BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AS A RIDGE AXIS SETS UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
MODELS/GUIDANCE AGREE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SUSTAINED SPEEDS
REACHING GENERALLY THE 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS
SET UP ALOFT GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 MPH A POSSIBILITY.

THE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT OF THE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH
THE WARMER AIR MASS ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA /AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ARE ROUGHLY IN THE MID 30S/...WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST ON THE
HIGHER END OF MODELS/GUIDANCE...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S /SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW IF CURIOUS ABOUT RECORD HIGHS/.
KEPT AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ON THE LOWER SIDE...WHICH IS OFTEN A
CONCERN WHEN THERE IS GOOD W/NW/SWRLY WINDS...AND DIDNT MAKE
NOTABLE CHANGES TO INHERITED DPTS. THE RESULT OF TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FOR AT
LEAST THE SWRN 1/3RD OF THE CWA DROPPING TO NEAR CRITICAL VALUES
FOR FIRE WX. CLOSE TO/BUT NOT HITTING THOSE VALUES NEEDED FOR A
FIRE WX HEADLINE...BUT TRENDS DURING THE DAY WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY WATCHED BY THE DAY CREW...AS IT WOULDNT TAKE A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN T/DPTS TO HIT THOSE CRITICAL VALUES.

DIMINISHING WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS
FALLING MAINLY INTO THE LOWER 30S.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z TUESDAY...WITH TROUGHING EXPECTED OVER THE
FAR EASTERN CONUS. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ADVANCE FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...THUS HELPING PROMOTE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
QUASI-ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE CENTRAL CONUS ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN OF NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AS WE HEAD INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL KEEP OUR AREA DRY
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...APPEARS VERY WEAK AND WITH LIMITED TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
REALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS LITTLE TO NO OMEGA IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH OMEGA FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION COULD BE REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA FRIDAY AND MORE SO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE SLOWER EC
SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT THERE REALLY IS NO LOGICAL
REASON TO PICK ONE SOLUTION OVER THE OTHER AND GIVEN THE HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...OPTED TO KEEP THE INHERITED FORECAST
PRETTY MUCH AS IT WAS RECEIVED...WHICH SIDED MORE WITH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION AND PRESENTED LOW POPS...PRIMARILY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR KANSAS COUNTIES IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
PRIMARY BAND OF OMEGA...FRIDAY NIGHT. OBVIOUSLY THIS WILL NEED TO
BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR LATE THIS WEEK
WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED BOTH SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY WITH FUTURE
FORECAST ISSUANCES.

A VERY WARM BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THUS
PROMOTING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR THE MOST PART...PERHAPS
UPPER 50S ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...THUS ALLOWING A COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 20S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUE MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...STILL LOOKING AT QUIET WEATHER
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE OF A FEW UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR. A SFC
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE
CWA...BRINGING A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY...WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP DURING THE
MID/LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE...THOUGH GUSTS
CLOSER TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. EARLY THIS MORNING...A FEW MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS UNTIL
THE WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW AND INCREASE IN SPEED...SO KEPT THE
MENTION GOING FOR A FEW HOURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

ALTHOUGH A RETURN TO VERY MILD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FOR TODAY-
WEDNESDAY...WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING TO BREAK ANY DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT OUR TWO PRIMARY CLIMATE RECORDS
SITES...GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS AIRPORTS. STAY TUNED AS ALWAYS
FOR AT LEAST MINOR FORECAST CHANGES...BUT THIS IS HOW THINGS
CURRENTLY STAND:

TODAY JAN. 26:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 72 IN 2002...CURRENT FORECAST 64
- HASTINGS: RECORD 71 IN 2002...CURRENT FORECAST 66

TUESDAY JAN. 27:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 68 IN 1934...CURRENT FORECAST 61
- HASTINGS: RECORD 67 IN 1934...CURRENT FORECAST 62

WEDNESDAY JAN. 28:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 63 IN 1986...CURRENT FORECAST 60
- HASTINGS: RECORD 69 IN 1931...CURRENT FORECAST 62

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ADP
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH/ADP



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