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000
FXUS63 KGID 231730
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Correction sent, please see the Long Term sections for changes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

After an extended period of extreme heat/humidity, temperatures
will be slightly cooler today...closer to the mid-July normals...
near 90-95F degrees. While still hot, heat indices will stay in
check with a little drier air. Skies will be mostly clear and
winds will be light transitioning from northerly to southeasterly
through the day/evening. Tonight it will be quiet with lows in
the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

The Main Story: Not as hot Mon-Wed. Sct Tstms mainly Wed night then
turning refreshingly cooler and less humid Thu-Sat.

Aloft: The Westerlies will be fairly zonal along the US-Can border
Mon-Tue...but a small low will be advancing E across Srn Canada.
Heights will begin to fall over the NE Pac resulting in downstream
amplification Wed-Sat...with a ridge/subtropical high evolving over
the Wrn USA and a trof in the E.

Spaghetti plots of the last 2 runs of GFS/EC are tightly clustered
with each other and their respective ensemble means. This provides
high confidence.

Surface: Return flow will develop by daybreak Mon with high pres
over the Wrn GtLakes and low pres over Sask. A cool front will
extend SW from this low into the NW USA. These features will
gradually progress E thru Tue with the cool front crossing the CWA
Wed. This front will cont sinking into the Srn Plns Thu-Fri as
expansive high pres heads E along the US-Can border. Return flow
is fcst to develop by Sat.

Sensible wx details...

Rain: No tstms are expected until the front approaches and moves
thru. Unfortunately...the timing of FROPA is not good for tstms. The
best chance for tstms will occur Wed night behind the front as the
low-lvl jet forms and intersects the front. FGEN could also provide
some lift. Then dry wx is currently expected Fri-Sat as this front
will shove the maritime tropical air far to the S and introduces a
continental polar air mass. It`s too early to determine specifics...
but certainly given the magnitude of elevated CAPE svr tstms will be
possible.

Temps: Slightly hotter than normal Mon-Tue with highs in the
90s...but nothing like what we just experienced. Both nights will be
warm with lows in the 70s. Near normal temps Wed.

Turning below normal Thu-Sat with highs in the 80s...even for N-
Cntrl KS. This front will result in a refreshing cool-down and whisk
away the humidity. A very comfortable interruption to the summer
heat is on the way. Believe our fcst is a little too warm and expect
it will trend lower over the next few days. Highs in the low 80s are
entirely possible for much of S-cntrl Neb Thu-Fri.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Monday)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

VFR conditions with little if any cloud cover expected today.
Winds will be northerly and light today, before becoming light and
variable this evening. A few mid-level clouds are possible
overnight, but the threat for for fog or stratus appears low.

Tomorrow, winds will shift southerly, eventually gusting to the
13-17kt range tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Billings Wright
SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Mangels