Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 241958
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
258 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

For tonight, we will eventually get a low-level jet creeping in from
the west that could potentially give us a rogue shower, especially
north. Not enough instability for thunder the way it looks.

There could be some leftover shower activity during the day on
Thursday, more likely in our north. But thunderstorm activity
could develop in the afternoon in the wake of a cold front.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Then Thursday night, we still expect the possibility of thunderstorm
activity developing over Colorado and moving into the CWA, possibly
forming into an MCS with the aid of a narrow locally enhanced jet,
that could swipe our southwest. There could be enough elevated
instability to give us a shot at some severe weather with this.

A better chance of rain arrives by late Friday night as models have
consistently painted some decent qpf for our area within low-
amplitude flow, and could quite possibly carry over into Saturday
morning. Once again, there is enough instability/shear to have a
shot at some severe weather as convection to the west could once
again form into an MCS, although not the most favorable timing
for as much severe weather, this is our best shot at getting more
rain, and we could squeeze out a good half inch over much of our
area.

Sunday is looking dry, but we could get a small chance of some
showers/thunderstorms within northwest flow on Memorial Day.

We will generally be near or just below normal for the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Thursday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

The biggest issue will be low-level wind shear overnight, which
will be rather marginal, but just strong enough to include in the
forecast as KEAR will encounter this first as a low level jet axis
slides east and diminishes just after sunrise. The surface wind
speeds will be a caveat here. If wind speeds wind up being about 5
kts stronger than what is forecast, then we might not technically
reach criterion for low-level wind shear. Another issue will be
sky cover this afternoon as cumulus have developed. Most of the
cumulus bases have risen to just above the threshold for VFR,
although there are some just under, but these bases should ever so
steadily rise as the afternoon progresses.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Heinlein



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