Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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481
FXUS63 KGID 152035
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
235 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 230 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Expect northerly winds to increase late this afternoon into
tonight as another round of cold air spills into the area. A few
gusts around 30 MPH are even possible overnight.

Increased low clouds have already pushed into northern Nebraska
and are expected to move into central Nebraska and northern Kansas
later this evening. Along with this cloud cover, and cold air
advection, I wouldn`t be surprised to see some flurries across
parts of the area tonight. A band of persistent flurries/snow may
even develop across north-central Kansas along the base of the
trough moving through the area. Even in this area, little to no
snow accumulation is expected. Clearing skies in the early morning
should allow lows to reach the teens across most of the area.

Friday will be noticably colder. The latest guidance only getting
the area into the 30s as compared to the 40s and 50s that we`ve
seen the past couple days. We will see southerly return flow
during the afternoon, though. While this won`t help temperatures
on Friday, it will set the stage for a bit of a warmup on the
weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

On Saturday, winds will shift northwesterly once again upper
level wave pushes a surface trough through the area. High
temperatures are still expected to reach the 40s to low 50s, but
gusts up to 35 MPH will certainly make it feel colder than that.
These gusty winds may also lead to near-critical fire weather
conditions across parts of Kansas where relative humidity values
drop into the low 20s.

The active pattern continues on Sunday as we see strong Southerly
flow return during the early morning ahead of another system
passing to the north of the area. This could set the stage for
another day of fire weather concerns, but there is some
uncertainty across the local area. The 12Z guidance is a little
faster with this system than the previous forecast, so winds are
now expected to shift northerly during the afternoon. Of course,
this could also keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than
previously expected, which would result in higher relative
humidity values. Nevertheless, winds will be strong, and I will
mention the fire weather threat in the HWO for both Saturday and
Sunday.

A deeper upper trough is forecast to cross the Rockies Sunday
night into Monday. As it does so, we will see increased moisture
advection ahead of it. There is a chance for some warm-air-
advection precipitation during the early morning of Monday. If
this materializes, some of it could even be freezing drizzle. That
said, given the uncertainty, I will just continue a mention of
rain/snow during this period and allow upcoming shifts to take
another look at it.

The trough itself is forecast to move through the area Monday
night, bringing a good chance for snow, especially for northern
parts of the forecast area. Of course its still a little too early
start talking specific amounts, but it appears that this will be
a relatively "minor" snow for the area, with the more significant
amounts remaining across northern Nebraska and South Dakota.

In addition to the snow Monday night, breezy north winds and
strong cold air advection will make for bitterly cold wind
chills...likely in the -10 to -20 degree range.

Quiet weather is expected to return Tuesday and Wednesday, but we
will remain in a relatively cold pattern and may only return to
"near-normal" temperatures for next Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Friday)
Issued at 1104 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

MVFR stratus has made it as far south at Valentine, and HRRR/RAP
soundings show this affecting both terminals late this afternoon
and early evening. Confidence in timing isn`t particularly high,
but went ahead and included MVFR ceilings from 22Z-3Z. Skies are
expected to gradually clear tonight into tomorrow morning.

Winds will also increase this evening in association with a push
of colder air. Gusts as high as 30kts are possible tonight. Just
like clouds, the winds will taper off by around daybreak tomorrow.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels



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