National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KGID 011122
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
522 AM CST SUN DEC 1 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST SUN DEC 1 2013

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TO THE PACIFIC OCEAN...WITH
QUASI-ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS ALSO EVIDENT
EXTENDING FROM NORTHWESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE PACIFIC. MID
TO UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS...EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK...ONLY
MAXING OUT AT AROUND 50KTS NEAR 200MB PER 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM
KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE EXTENDING ALONG THE MID LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS. INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO NOTED AHEAD
OF THE NORTHWESTERN CANADA SHORTWAVE...WITH SOME OF THIS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INFILTRATING THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND AS FAR EAST AS
MONTANA AND WYOMING. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER...MID LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS FAIRLY LACKING OVER OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS A RESULT...THE LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELD OVER OUR AREA REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT AND FROM THE NORTHEAST.

QUASI-ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWESTERN CANADA...IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...STRENGTHENING INTO A
CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS BY 12Z MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE
THE RIDGE OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST
THUS ALLOWING FOR A SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD
TODAY...AND EVENTUALLY FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THE APPROACH OF THE
MID LEVEL LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTHERN MONTANA...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z
MONDAY.

WITH AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS OUR
CWA THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...ALONG WITH A CONTINUED
DOWN-SLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...WOULD SUGGEST
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO THAT OF
SATURDAY. THAT BEING SAID...INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO INFILTRATE PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY AS INCREASING
MID LEVEL MOISTURE INFILTRATES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN ONE HALF OF OUR CWA IS
MOST LIKELY TO OBSERVE THIS HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. GIVEN
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S ACROSS OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...MUCH LIKE WHAT WAS OBSERVED
YESTERDAY...BUT KEPT OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST COOLER...GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 50S. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST TONIGHT THUS ALLOWING FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST SUN DEC 1 2013

SIGNIFICANT ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH MON WILL BE REPLACED BY FRIGID
ARCTIC AIR BY TUE NIGHT. THE COLD PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN WITH US
SINCE 11/21 WILL RECHARGE IN FULL FURY...SENDING US INTO THE DEEP
FREEZE. WHILE THE COLD WILL EASE AT TIMES...THE SIGNALS VIA THE
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE FIRST HALF OF DEC IS LOOKING VERY VERY COLD.

MODELS: FCST TROUBLES ABOUND FROM POOR MODEL CONSENSUS IN A VERY
COMPLEX SITUATION. THIS LEADS TO BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FCST. MUCH OF THE TROUBLE HAS TO DO WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF
FCST TO EJECT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TUE AND ITS INTENSITY. THE
18Z/00Z GFS RUNS WERE 400 MI SE WITH THE UPPER LOW AT 00Z/WED
COMPARED TO THE 18Z/00Z NAM RUNS. THE NON-NCEP MODELS ARE WEAKER
WITH THIS TROF. GIVEN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
THE GULF OF AK...THIS SHOULD FAVOR MORE DIGGING OF THE NEWLY
FORMING WRN USA LONGWAVE TROF.

TRENDS: THE 12Z/30 AND 00Z/1 EC ARE FASTER SINCE FRI 11/29. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH LOOKED LIKE WED IS NOW MORE LIKE TUE.

ALOFT: WNW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE WRN/CNTRL USA MON WITH A COLD
CORE ARCTIC LOW DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR AS THIS LOW CARVES OUT OF LONGWAVE TROF
OVER THE WRN USA. THE MODELING OF SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROFS
MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT FCST. THE FIRST TROF WILL ADVANCE THRU THE
NRN PLAINS TUE- TUE NIGHT. STRENGTH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND THIS HAS
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE INTENSITY OF OUR WINDS. THE TROF THAT DIGS
THE FURTHEST INTO CA/NV WILL BECOME SHEARED AND EJECT ONTO THE
PLAINS WED NIGHT. THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL ADVANCE INTO THE CNTRL
USA FRI AND THEN TEMPORARILY RETROGRADE NEXT WEEKEND AS IT
RELOADS. BOTTOM LINE... ONCE THIS FRONT GOES THRU WE ARE IN FOR
SOME SERIOUS COLD THRU AT LEAST TUE 12/10...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL DAYS OF BITTER COLD.

SURFACE: A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM MO ACROSS NEB TO LOW
PRES OVER MT SUN NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL DIVE SE ALONG THE FRONT MON
CROSSING NEB MON NIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG THE ARCTIC FRONT THRU HERE
WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO FOLLOW TUE. BITTERLY COLD
CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL BEGIN ASSERTING ITS INFLUENCE WED AND
CONTINUING INTO FRI AS IT SLIDES INTO MT. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
ATTEMPT TO GET GOING FRI-SAT...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO
STABLE.

HAZARDS: WE NOW HAVE ENOUGH WIND IN THE FCST TO INITIATE MENTION
OF WINDY CONDITIONS TUE-TUE NIGHT. THIS IMPLIES POTENTIAL FOR A
WIND ADVISORY FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30+ AND/OR G45+.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

MON: PARTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM WITH A LIGHT W WIND. THE MODELS
ARE NOT HANDLING TEMPS WELL IN THIS PATTERN AND WERE WAY TOO COOL
WITH HIGHS FRI AND SAT. SO USED BIAS CORRECTED MEX MOS TO INCREASE
HIGHS FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST 6-8F FROM THE TRI-CITIES S AND W.
THIS PUSHED HIGHS TO 60-70F.

MON NIGHT: LOOKS MILD. TEMPS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
AT MOST LOCATIONS.

TUE: INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDY! ODDS FAVOR NEEDING A WIND
ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS ARE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE
TIMING AND IF WE WILL SEE SOME TEMP RISE OR TEMPS HOLD STEADY.
COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES N OF I-80 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

COLD: GET READY BECAUSE THIS WILL BE A BITTERLY COLD AIR MASS FOR
THE DEAD OF WINTER...LET ALONE FOR EARLY DEC. WE WILL RIVAL THE
COLDEST HIGH TEMPS OF ALL LAST WINTER WHICH OCCURRED CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY /HIGHS AT GRAND ISLAND WERE 16F AND 14F/. TEMPS
WILL TURN SUB-FREEZING TUE NIGHT AND NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING THRU
THE REST OF THE FCST. PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH FOR 2 DAYS WITH HIGHS
IN THE TEENS FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. ALTHOUGH A LOW
PROB...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ONE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. WE WOULD NEED HEAVY CLOUD COVER FOR THIS TO OCCUR THOUGH.

WED: FAIRLY CLOUDY WITH A SNOW SHWR OR TWO. COLDER. WINDS RELAX
BUT STILL BLUSTERY.

THU: SHARPLY COLDER AND IT COULD BE MADE WORSE IF SKIES REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THE VORT MAX MOVES THRU. THE PAST 2 RUNS OF
EC/GFS/GEM ALL OUTPUT SOME LIGHT QPF. WE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -10F IN
THE MORNING AND NO WARMER THAN ZERO IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRI: CONTINUED VERY COLD. SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS IN THE MORNING AND
PROBABLY AROUND +5F IN THE AFTERNOON.

SAT: THE COLD EASES BUT STILL BELOW FREEZING AND STILL MUCH BELOW
NORMAL FOR HIGHS.

MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE SNOW SOMETIME THIS WEEK...BUT IT/S
LOOKING LIKE FLURRIES OR BRIEF SNOW SHWRS...MOSTLY JUST IN THE
AIR. NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL IS ENVISIONED.

WE CONTINUE TO CHECK THE EC ENSEMBLES FOR QPF THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST FOR A FEW FLAKES UP TO POSSIBLY 1 OR 2
INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS. PROBS CONTINUE TO DECREASE FOR 5" OR
MORE. NOW IT IS DOWN TO JUST A 2 PERCENT CHANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST SUN DEC 1 2013

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE NOTED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT NOTHING BELOW 15000FT AGL IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE
SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO START THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 6KTS BY 18Z. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS
NOT EXPECTED AT GRI THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...BRYANT