Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 192334

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
634 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Issued at 633 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Updated the forecast this evening to cancel the Severe
Thunderstorm Watch and clear out thunder for the rest of the
evening, although there could be a few showers later on tonight.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Focus is on thunderstorm potential the next few hours.

A cold frontal boundary was advancing southeast today, and was oriented
from KJYR to KPHG at 20Z. Convergence along the front will focus
thunderstorm activity across the east/southeast tier or so of our
cwa for a few hours generally from 21Z to 00Z. The primary hazards
from the storms will be large hail the size of golf balls or
greater and damaging winds of 60 mph given instability around
2000 j/kg and effective shear of 30 to 40kts.

Conditions generally dry out behind the boundary as it exits to the
southeast however we may need some small pops for a few showers
tonight along the elevated boundary in presence of mid level
frontogenesis as latest model runs suggest the potential for this.
Pressure rises behind the front average 2 to 4mb and expect
steady/gusty northwest winds into the overnight hours.

Any lingering light precipitation is expected to end by Thursday
morning as dry air and surface high pressure settles across our
region behind the boundary. Thursday is shaping up to be a
generally nice day with highs in the 60s to low 70s. Northwest
wind speeds may become sneaky breezy at times given the deeper
mixing per soundings in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Precipitation chances return at the end of the workweek as an upper
trough over the Rockies emerges onto the central and southern
plains. Rain chances return to portions of our western zones as
early as Thursday night, however the better chances for rain across
our western and southern zones favor Friday and Friday night. Dry
air to the east will bring a sharp gradient to areas that are wet
or dry and again our far west zones and mainly north central
Kansas stand the better chances for receiving rainfall.
Instability remains pretty meager and have left thunder out of the
forecast with this system.

The upper low departs Saturday and heights rise behind the system.
The weekend time frame is still looking dry, then models are
trending stronger with another wave heading into Monday, so Monday
may not remain a dry period if these trends continue. Late Tuesday
into Wednesday see precipitation chances return but there are model
differences in the track/strength of this next system and details
will be resolved as things get closer.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 559 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

The cold frontal boundary and associated thunderstorm activity had
moved well southeast of the terminals this evening. For the most
part, dry weather is forecast for the remainder of the taf period,
although there is just a small chance for a rain shower tonight
in the presence of mid level frontogenesis. Chances are not high
enough to include in the TAF at this time. Northwest winds will
be steady and gusty at times this evening, at times again tonight
and also during the day Thursday.




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