Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 190001

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
701 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Chances for thunderstorms are the main focus during the short term

The pattern aloft featured fairly zonal flow across the interior
CONUS with embedded shortwave wave troughs. A wave which crossed
the plains overnight brought a cool front into our northern zones
this morning, while to the south a warm front was lifting north
from Kansas. A surface low will deepen along the high plains
tonight with the main front to the south lifting north into south
central Nebraska tonight. Short term models are in decent
agreement that while a storm may try to develop in our southern
zones this evening, the better chances for convection exist
tonight as the lowlevel jet strengthens overnight and another
shortwave trough translates across South Dakota and northern
Nebraska. Given the frontal position, orientation of the low level
jet and track of the wave, our Nebraska zones (especially the
eastern and northern zones) have the better chances for
precipitation overnight. A strong to severe storm may occur with
large hail the primary hazard given decent instability and good

Chances for convection linger into Wednesday until a cold frontal
boundary moves through and scours the low level moisture. Our
southeast zones remain in a SPC Day 2 slight risk, for storm
development along the cold front in the late afternoon/eve. The
latest models are trending faster/farther south with the frontal
position Wednesday and would not be surprised to see the slight risk
shifted a little farther southeast as well. Given the progged
frontal position, while not completely ruling out a brief couple
hour window of opportunity for a storm or two, convection should
move out of our area pretty quickly in the evening. If front does
slow, a strong to severe storm is possible again with large
hail/damaging winds the primary hazards.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

The forecast dries out Wednesday night through Thursday as drier air
and surface ridging settles in behind the boundary. An upper trough
moves into the Rockies Thursday with a widespread rain developing
and spreading east of the high plains late Thursday night and
through the workweek. The latest track of the system into
Kansas/Oklahoma provides the best chances for rain across western
Nebraska and then across Kansas. Instability is not zero Friday,
but is not high either and maintained shower wording.

The system departs Friday night or early Saturday with dry weather
for the weekend with ridging behind the departing upper low.
Temperatures remain cool through Saturday with highs just near 60,
then Saturday night will need to monitor lows as temperatures may
trend cold enough for a mention of frost in our western counties.
The dry pattern continues into the first part of next week with
temperatures averaging in the 60s/70s for highs.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Main issue tonight will be lowering ceilings north of a stalled
front as a low-level jet develops. There is a small chance of
thunderstorms, some possibly strong, but again, chances are small,
so this will be handles with VCTS. Ceilings may perhaps be a bit
lower at KGRI compared to KEAR. If a thunderstorm were to POP up
over or near a terminal, visibility may be lower than VFR, but
predictability is too low to put this in the forecast for now. I
may need to amend the forecast to increase wind speeds a bit




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