Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 190704

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
104 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 415 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

A cut off upper low over western Kansas this afternoon will very
slowly slide east into central Kansas by Thursday afternoon.
Forecast models are in good agreement that there will be little if
any precipitation associated with this system. We do expect
southerly flow with a lee sfc trough through the period to allow for
increasing low level moisture and the development of a low stratus
deck. This pattern will sometimes result in fog along the western
edge of the stratus deck and this is being picked up on by the
forecast models for later tonight into Thursday morning. Can not
rule out dense fog, but the more likely haze/fog would be areas of
fog with visibilities of 1/2 to 2 miles.

Precipitation...We could see some light drizzle fall out of the
stratus deck on Thursday given sufficient saturation depth. However,
there is not much moisture very far aloft (700mb) and thus will call
for drizzle rather than rain.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 415 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Overview...Cloudy, cool, and at times drizzle or light rain through
Friday night. Dry and mild over the weekend. Then a possible storm
system or systems early next week depending if it comes out as one
bigger system or in pieces.

Thursday night Through Friday night...We are going to be stuck under
some low stratus clouds and the persistent chance for light drizzle
especially across eastern zones. This will keep temperatures cooler
than today, but still above freezing. Fog and drizzle will be the
primary forecast concerns. Will continue to keep even night time
temperatures above freezing for areas that are seeing drizzle and
thus no freezing drizzle is expected.

Monday through Wednesday...The bigger storm system early next week
(Tuesday) is looking less impressive for our area than 24hrs ago.
The 12z ECMWF is further south and much weaker than previous model
runs. The 12Z GFS is still rather strong but further north taking
the more significant impacts into South Dakota. Forecast ensembles
are still all over the place from weak to strong and from around our
forecast area to generally north of our forecast area with this
Tuesday system.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 103 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

General overview:
Confidence remains high that the vast majority of the period will
feature IFR-to-LIFR ceiling along with periods of MVFR-to-IFR
visibility, with off-and-on light (non-freezing) drizzle possible
as well. Surface winds will be a negligible issue through the
period, with sustained speeds averaging near/under 10kt from a
fairly consistent south-southeast direction. Read on for more
element-specific details...

Right off the bat early this morning both sites remain VFR, but
this should be short lived with an abrupt onset of IFR-to-LIFR
ceiling anticipated by 09-10z. Thereafter, this low ceiling is
expected to hold firm through the remainder of the period.
Visibility is a bit more questionable, as while some
models/guidance suggest LIFR to even VLIFR in dense fog this
morning, other guidance keep visibility more optimistic at no-
worse than MVFR, which tends to make some sense given the light-
but-steady southerly breezes keeping at least modest boundary
layer mixing in place. Decided to keep the LIFR visibility mention
inherited from previous TAFs, but confined it to a TEMPO group
from 11-15z. While visibility is expected to return to VFR for at
least several hours during the afternoon/early evening, a return
to at least MVFR is currently expected for later Thursday evening.
Did not officially advertise any mention of precipitation with
this issuance, but later TAFs may include a mention of light,
non-freezing drizzle.




LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...Pfannkuch is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.