Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 091757
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1157 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED 2-4F FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS
BEEN A BAND OF THICK ALTOCU COVERING MOST OF THE FCST AREA...AND
WHILE SOME BREAKS WILL MOVE IN AFTER NOON...SKIES WILL AVERAGE
M/CLOUDY.

NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE IS VERY POOR ON DWPTS THIS AFTERNOON. DWPTS
ARE 8-10F OVER N-CNTRL AND NE NEB AND IT`S ADVECTING S. THE ONLY
MODEL CLOSE TO REALITY IS THE ARW. CURRENT DWPTS HAVE BEEN BLENDED
INTO THE ARW OUTPUT THRU 00Z WITH SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THIS IS THE FIRST DRAFT FOR THIS AFTN`S AFD.

ALOFT: NNW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NW THRU TOMORROW AS
DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE WRN RIDGE/ERN TROF BEGINS. HEIGHTS WILL
RISE ABOUT 120 M. NO SIGNIFICANT PERTURBATIONS ARE ENVISIONED.

SURFACE: A STATIONARY FRONT BISECTED NEB/KS AND EXTENDED NNW INTO
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY INCH E OF THE
FCST AREA OVER THE NEXT 30 HRS AS A WEAK CLIPPER DIVES SSE ALONG
IT...INTO ND BY DAWN WED AND INTO NEB IN THE AFTERNOON.

OVERALL...SKIES WILL BE M/CLOUDY THRU TONIGHT WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS TOMORROW AS THE FRONT SHIFTS E.

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT AHEAD. LOWS 6-12F ABOVE NORMAL.

MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES WELL N OF I-80.

WED: CLEARING FROM W-E. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN HIGH TEMPS. FULL
SUN AND NO SNOW WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S! STILL
EVALUATING WHAT WE WANT TO DO.

MORE LATER...


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL DETERMINING TEMPERATURES.

WE WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE
WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST DEAMPLIFY. A JET STREAK COULD LINGER
SOME FLURRIES IN OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THIS WILL
BE ON ITS WAY OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING. I ANTICIPATE SOME DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WITH A WEST/NORTHWEST COMPONENT. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
...RANGING FROM NEAR 5C IN OUR NORTHEAST CORNER TO AS HIGH AS 12C
IN OUR SOUTHWEST. DESPITE THE REMAINING SNOW...I CAN SEE THE TRI-
CITIES EASILY MAKING THE 40S THIS DAY...THANKS TO THE WEST
COMPONENT OF THE WIND.

I EXPECT A BIT OF A COOL DOWN FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS DE-
AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTER ALOFT ALLOWS COOLER AIR IN...
ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST...THEN A 1044 MB ARCTIC HIGH RELEASES SOME
COLDER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. I ACTUALLY LOWERED TEMPERATURES
FROM INITIALIZED GRIDS TO MID 20S IN THE TRI-CITIES. HOWEVER...WE
ARE ESSENTIALLY SIDE-SWIPED BY THE PUSH OF THE COLD AIR TO THE
EAST...AND WE WILL FIND OURSELVES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH BY FRIDAY WITH A WARM-UP ANTICIPATED INTO NEXT WEEK. IN
FACT...WE COULD HAVE SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEK. I KEPT SUNDAY DRY...BUT A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS ADVERTISED BY MODELS THAT COULD GIVE US A LITTLE PRECIPITATION.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO I KEPT THIS DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WED AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER: NONE.

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR CIGS 6-7K FT. N WINDS AROUND 15 KTS GRADUALLY
DECREASE. TEMPO GUSTINESS TO NEAR 25 KTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY BEFORE
21Z. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM AS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WIND
DIRECTION IN VICINITY OF A STATIONARY FRONT.

TONIGHT: VFR CIGS DECREASE TO AROUND 5K FT...BUT COULD DROP AS LOW
AS 3500 FT FOR A COUPLE HRS. WINDS BECOME LGT AND VRBL 00Z-02Z AND
THEN BECOME SW UNDER 10 KTS AFTER PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

WED THRU 18Z: VFR WITH CIGS LIFTING TO 15K FT. GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM THE W. SW WINDS UNDER 10 KTS BECOME W. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB


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