Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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938
FXUS63 KGID 012153
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
353 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 351 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

For tonight, this will be pretty a temperature forecast a surface
high settles in and gives us light wind with nearly clear skies,
except for some stubborn cirri and also some mid-level clouds in our
northeast corner. This clouds should eventually exit, allowing good
radiational cooling with lows near 20. Tomorrow should be a near
repeat of day, perhaps slightly warmer if we break out into sun. I
expect increasing sky cover Friday as a wave travels enters the
southern plains with some isentropic lift occurring ahead of the
wave.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 351 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Our far south may be just far enough south to get in on some
very light snow late Friday night and possibly very light rain/snow
by Saturday afternoon/evening. This should be ultimately negligible.
Although some numerical models indicate a loss of ice crystals in
the dendritic growth zone Friday night, this is not a favorable
setup for freezing drizzle as the boundary layer will remain rather
dry. By the time we would have a chance to saturate down to the
surface, we would probably have ice crystals introduced, and any
warm layer should cool to below zero, so not looking for any
freezing liquid occurring.

An important thing to address is the potentially complex upcoming
weather pattern next week. By Sunday night, a closed upper level low
will eject northeast out of Mexico into the southern Plains. That
much long term models agree. After this, they diverge considerably.
The GFS advertises the main axis of an approaching western wave on
Tuesday, focusing the best large scale lift near a jet streak south
of the CWA while the 12Z run of the ECMWF swings the main lobe
through late Tuesday night into Wednesday. If the GFS has its way,
we will see essentially nothing in the tri-cities, but the ECMWF
solution would give us over half a foot of snow, given the forecast
temperatures. Models still lack good run to run consistency and do
not agree well at all. For now, we will stick with Tuesday having
the better chance of receiving snow, but confidence very low. This
is far enough out to give us a little breathing room to refine the
forecast.

Cold air is certainly on the way as an arctic cold front swings
through Monday night. Wind chills will be in the teens and 20s by
Tuesday and near zero by late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

We will have a fair warm-up this weekend with highs in the 40s
before the arctic air arrives, however.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1107 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

VFR conditions are expected as high pressure will be in firm
control of our weather. Wind will be near calm tonight as the
center of the surface high slips nearby, but even northwest wind
today should be less than 12 KTS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Heinlein



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