Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 282327

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
627 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Radar has been filling in the past couple of hours and there is more
light rain across the far western parts of the forecast area this
afternoon. Clouds continue across the area. A surface low located in
the southern plains is keeping winds from the east across the area.

An upper low is expected to move to the east through Kansas or
Oklahoma, depending on the model. The models have some slight
differences in the movement of the low as it moves east tonight and
Wednesday. All of the models have precipitation spreading across the
forecast area during the evening and continuing across the area
later tonight and on Wednesday. The rain should be fairly steady
through this period. At this time, the temperatures will be warm
enough that the precipitation should all be rain.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

The upper low is expected to continue to move east into Missouri by
Thursday afternoon. The precipitation should become more spotty
during the night Wednesday night and move out of the area on
Thursday. Models have a few differences in the amount of
precipitation and the timing of moving the precipitation out of the

Thursday night through Friday there is an upper level ridge and
surface high that moves through the area. There could be some
sunshine but temperatures will not be much warmer.

The period Friday night through Tuesday should have on and off
precipitation. Another upper level low moves into the area. The
models handle it a little differently. The GFS is a little slower
and further to the north through Sunday, then it moves to the
northeast and another low slides into the area from the northwest.
The ECMWF is faster and further to the south and then moves out of
the area before another weaker wave moves in from the northwest. The
ECMWF has more of a break in the precipitation than the GFS. Some of
the temperatures during this period will be cool enough there could
be a mix of rain and snow in the far northwest.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Deteriorating conditions are expected as we go further into this
evening/overnight, as an upper level storm system passing to our
south brings increasing rain chances. Over the next few hours, the
heavier rain will push north into the terminal areas, bringing the
potential for lower ceilings/visibilities. Models in good
agreement keeping precip potential around through the end of this
TAF period. Winds are forecast to gradually turn more north-
northeasterly with time, with speeds increasing near/after midday
tomorrow. Afternoon speeds of 15 to 25 MPH and gusts near 30 MPH
are forecast.




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