162
FXUS63 KGID 110522
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1222 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another evening/overnight chance of thunderstorms today (and
  Friday), with a few strong storms possible

- Cooler trend this weekend with lower dewpoints/drier air,
  especially Saturday

- Aside from the next 24-36 hours, the "next" best chance for
  rainfall comes next Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Tonight through Friday Night...
A distinct upper trough is moving into western Nebraska
this afternoon with low pressure in north central Nebraska. Hot
conditions across north central Kansas with head indices of
100 to 105 common (along with triple digit air temperatures).
Slightly "cooler" to the north but very humid with 70+ dewpoints
across south central Nebraska. Winds remain strong from the
south and have gusted to 30 mph. We are starting to see an
slight uptick in convection in northeast Colorado and northeast
Nebraska, with the northeast Colorado precipitation less
intense but also our weather maker tonight.

Unstable across the forecast area at the moment but also capped
and flat out cloudy in some areas. That is a near term limiting
factor to developing thunderstorms. The best chance for storms
will be between 5 pm and 10 pm coinciding with the upper lift
and weakish frontal boundary pushing south. However, CAMS
model trends have not been bullish overall and tend to favor
areas to our northeast with most intense convection. We also
should see some drier air push north the next few hours from
Kansas so that also will focus the best convective potential
initially north of Interstate 80 by the mid-evening. Still, most
of the area is likely to see some showers and storms this
evening and early overnight at least (maybe later). There is a
risk of severe weather with the instability, forcing and
acceptable shear but organization seems limited as does the time
frame, probably focused on the 6 pm to 9 pm timeframe overall.

Friday is "cooler" for most areas, but still remaining
seasonally warm. Can`t rule out some summertime morning
convection like we have been experiencing, but the best chance
for more widespread showers/storms is in the evening with the
stronger mid-level frontal boundary. However, we have to be
honest in saying that trying to outline any specific
thunderstorm risk beyond about 12 hours is pretty tough in this
summertime atmosphere. The timing does seem to be well past
peak heating for the front to pass, but a few strong storms are
possible.

Weekend...
Granted, we are holding onto a small thunderstorm chance
Saturday morning across north central Kansas south of Highway
36, but the main story for the weekend is drier conditions,
drier air and a cooler airmass. Surface high pressure will
settle right across the area and clear whatever clouds out
from north-to-south resulting in plenty of afternoon sunshine.
The main story is dewpoints will drop back to the upper 50s to
around 60 degrees providing some nice relief from the higher
humidity in recent days. That will translate into more
comfortable lows Saturday night. We will temperatures climb
up Sunday to about normal for mid-July with light south winds
Bottom line is Saturday is a pretty pleasant, refreshing day
for the area and the weekend is essentially dry.

Monday-Thursday
In general, Monday and most of Tuesday are essentially dry
with seasonal summer temperature give or take. Late Tuesday,
a front moves into northwest Nebraska. The area could catch
from low-level driven convection Tuesday evening, but the best
chance is clearly with the front Wednesday/Wednesday night.
The trends have been pretty consistent that this period would
be be unsettled with a frontal passage and no reason to doubt
that at this point. As the front does pull through, much
cooler (below normal) air settles in Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Main chances for showers/storms have shifted south of the
terminal areas over the past couple of hours, so kept
precipitation out of the TAF through the rest of tonight. Winds
look to remain on the light-at times variable side tonight. As
we approach dawn, there is some concern that MVFR ceilings could
make their way into the area...currently located over north
central NE. Models still have some differences with whether the
terminal do see MVFR conditions or the ceilings scatter a bit
the further south they go...decided to have a MVFR mention at
both sites through the early morning hours. Once those ceilings
lift/scatter...do have VFR conditions through the rest of this
TAF period. During the early morning hours, winds become more
NWrly...and by around midday and continuing through the
afternoon, winds are expected to be more northerly, and gusts
near 20 MPH are not out of the question. Another upper level
disturbance moving into the area later in the period will bring
the potential for another round of showers/storms. At this
point, confidence in any impact at the terminals is not
high...so kept mention confined to a PROB30 group for now.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Moritz
AVIATION...ADP