


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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601 FXUS63 KGID 110859 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 359 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Some isolated to scattered showers and non-severe storms look to linger into the morning hours today across eastern portions of the area...but for most, today looks dry. Another chance for storms returns this evening-overnight...can`t rule out some of those storms being strong-severe. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall look to be the main threats. - Current forecast for this weekend is dry. Saturday has the potential to be a pretty nice...with diminishing cloud cover, light winds, and highs in the low 80s for most. Sunday highs climb back closer to 90 degrees. - Periodic thunderstorm chances return to the forecast as we get into the new work week, with the best chances (around 40 percent) currently focused on the Tue evening-night and Wed evening-night time frames. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 346 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Currently... Following a period of more organized thunderstorms yesterday afternoon-evening, spots of more scattered activity have been gradually shifting east across the forecast area overnight...with the latest, very narrow band of activity making its way across areas mainly north of I-80 and east of HWY 281. This activity has been driven primarily by increased lift in advance of a mid- level shortwave disturbance/trough axis crossing the Central/Nrn Plains...with this latest narrow band tied closest to the main trough axis itself. Elsewhere across the CONUS, upper air and satellite data show an overall low-amplitude pattern...broad high pressure across the south, with embedded shortwave disturbances spread across central/northern portions. Outside of the disturbance currently making its way across the immediate region...the next one of interest for our forecast area is digging into the Nrn Rockies/central Canada. Satellite imagery also showing that while the main mid-upper level clouds with the disturbance are sliding east with time...a batch of lower level stratus has been sinking south...MVFR ceilings have moved into the ODX/BVN sites. At the surface, an overall weak low pressure system continues to gradually slide east through the area...winds currently for most locations are right around 10 MPH. Eastern area winds are more variable, closest to the low...western areas are seeing winds switch to the NW. Today through the upcoming weekend... As this latest disturbance continues to gradually push east today, can`t totally rule out some isolated activity lingering around ENE portions of the forecast area this morning...currently carrying some low end chances through mid- morning (20 percent), a few models hinting that it could be closer to midday before things totally clear far NErn portions. Outside of that...did make downward adjustments to chances across the entire area...thinking is that for most spots, most of the day will end up drier. Models showing a brief lull in lift between the departing system this morning and when that next one (mentioned above currently in the Nrn Rockies) moves in. Do have 20 percent chances returning late this afternoon in far NWrn areas, some models suggest even that is too generous. Mid-late afternoon, may have activity developing in a couple of areas off to our west...one along a lower-level reinforcing cool front draped across the Sandhills, the other across the High Plains and higher elevations of CO/WY closer to the mid-upper level trough axis as well as better lower-level upslope flow. Main question into the evening/overnight hours once again is how organized of a complex things evolve into and how far east does it get/impact on our forecast area. Not surprisingly, models still vary on that...but most point toward things making a solid push into at least the WNWrn half of the forecast area before potentially diminishing. Though forcing is there with this system moving in and sufficient instability is present...overall deeper layer shear is on the lower side, and the timing makes for lower impact from daytime heating. Can`t rule out some strong-severe storms, and the entire forecast area remains in the SPC Marginal Risk area. Damaging wind gusts and very heavy rainfall rates remain the primary threats, though some large hail isn`t out of the question if storms can grow tall enough and maintain that strength long enough. Outside of the precipitation chances, high temps today are forecast to be cooler than Thursday...with forecast highs in the mid 80s to low 90s for most. For northern-eastern areas, some uncertainty exists, confidence in those lower level clouds and how long they stick around isn`t high...and could result in a few spots peaking more in the low 80s (though some guidance has upper 70s being possible). Winds today are expected to become more northerly, then NNErly through the day...and can`t rule out some gusts near 20 MPH during the afternoon hours. Though it may end up being a close call for southern areas...do have precipitation chances ending by 12Z Saturday. As for the the weekend as a whole, without a strong upper level ridge dominating the area don`t want to make a promise it`s precipitation-free...but current models are in fairly good agreement showing upper level flow more northwesterly in the wake of the system moving through today, and an overall lack of notable disturbances moving through...giving confidence it`ll end up dry. If the current forecast holds, Saturday looks to have the potential to be a pretty nice day by mid-July standards. Currently have cloud cover diminishing through the day from north to south...with lighter winds as surface high pressure passes across the region. Forecast dewpoints are in the 50s-near 60, with highs for most in the low 80s. Winds turn back to the south for Sunday, and a warmer airmass building back into the region looks to bring highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Monday and on... As we get into the new work week, periodic thunderstorm chances return to the forecast. Models showing the upper level pattern transitioning back to more zonal flow...increasing the potential for shortwave disturbances to impact the region. This is the time of year where it can be pretty difficult to have much confidence in finer forecast details 24hrs out, let alone 3-4+ days...so for most periods, chances are around 20 percent. Currently, the best chances (closer to 40 percent) are focused in the Tuesday evening-night and Wednesday evening-night periods. High temperatures Mon-Tue remain fairly steady in the 80s-90s...with the potential for highs in the 70s for Wed-Thur. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1214 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Main chances for showers/storms have shifted south of the terminal areas over the past couple of hours, so kept precipitation out of the TAF through the rest of tonight. Winds look to remain on the light-at times variable side tonight. As we approach dawn, there is some concern that MVFR ceilings could make their way into the area...currently located over north central NE. Models still have some differences with whether the terminal do see MVFR conditions or the ceilings scatter a bit the further south they go...decided to have a MVFR mention at both sites through the early morning hours. Once those ceilings lift/scatter...do have VFR conditions through the rest of this TAF period. During the early morning hours, winds become more NWrly...and by around midday and continuing through the afternoon, winds are expected to be more northerly, and gusts near 20 MPH are not out of the question. Another upper level disturbance moving into the area later in the period will bring the potential for another round of showers/storms. At this point, confidence in any impact at the terminals is not high...so kept mention confined to a PROB30 group for now. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADP AVIATION...ADP