Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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792
FXUS63 KGID 241748
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1148 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1148 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

The SN/FZDZ is now confined to Hwy 81 corridor from JYR-HJH...
except for the final snowband moving in from the W. We`ve seen
LBF/MCK drop to 1/2SM SN for 30-45 min with a narrower embedded
band. Have followed the 12Z NAM Nest which has the best handle on
this...and indicates it will march all the way thru the CWA...
primarily over S-cntrl Neb. Could see a quick 1/2-1" of accum...
especially if it holds together and maintains its intensity. No
guarantees that occurs though. Satellite indicates rapidly
clearing from W-E after the snow ends.

Will start cancelling counties in the Advisory after the snow
exits.


.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1139 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

This serves as the first draft for this aftn`s AFD.

Aloft: RAP analyses and 12Z upr-air data show a longwave trof was
over the Wrn USA with a couple shortwave trofs embedded. The 1st
was over the Nrn/Cntrl Plns and was responsible for the
-SN/-FZDZ today. The 2nd was diving down the backside of the trof
over the Pac NW. The initial trof will exit to the E this eve
while the upstream trof conts SE. This trof will cross the rgn
tomorrow with heights temporarily building over the Wrn USA in its
wake.

Surface: The main polar front extended from TX to the OH Vly with
low pres over MO. A weak sfc trof was progressing across Neb/KS
and it will become absorbed into the MO low this eve. Weak high
pres over the Srn Plns will build in tonight. That high will head
into the SE USA tomorrow but still extend back into the Cntrl
Plns.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 422 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Overall we expect warmer and mainly dry conditions.

There are no big cold air outbreaks on the horizon and most days
will see highs in the 40s. The warmest day appears to be Monday
when may areas should see highs climb into the 50s. The coldest
day will be Wednesday when a cold front could dip highs of some of
our Nebraska zones back down into the 30s. There is just a small
chance of some light rain or snow in association with the
Wednesday storm system, but it does not appear to be a big deal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Sunday)
Issued at 1148 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Significant Weather: Vrbl IFR-MVFR CIGs until a snowband moves
thru roughly 1830Z-2100Z.

This Afternoon: Predominantly IFR. A snowband will move thru
lowering VSBYs to 1-3SM but 1/2SM SN is possible for about 30
min...especially at EAR. After the SN ends...rapid improvement to
VFR. Lgt/vrbl winds become W 10-15 kts. Confidence: High

Tonight: VFR. No clds at or below (AOB) 10K ft. W winds 10-15 kts
gradually diminishing to 10 kts or less. Confidence: High

Sun thru 18Z: VFR. No clds AOB 10K ft. W winds around 10 kts.
Confidence: High

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...Kelley



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