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000
FXUS63 KGID 241738
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1238 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW A CONTINUED AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND WRN THIRDS OF THE CONUS...WITH AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER CO/NM...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SPINS OVER THE PAC NW WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED TO
THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED
OVER MN/WI. THE RESULTING WINDS ARE S/SERLY...BUT WITH A WEAKER
PRESSURE GRADIENT THE SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH
RANGE.

THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS TODAY...MAIN QUESTIONS IS
WHETHER THE CWA WILL SEE ANY PRECIPITATION. EVEN AT THIS POINT
MODELS SHOW PLENTY OF DIFFERENCES...BUT HIRES/SHORT TERM MODELS
SHOW THE POTENTIAL OF MAINLY THE NERN THIRD OR SO OF THE CWA
BEING AFFECTED...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIDES THE EDGE OF THE
RIDGE AND AN INCREASED LLJ LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. SEEING A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SWRN SD...AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP POPS
IN THE 20- 30 PERCENT RANGE...AND WILL SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS THERE IS ALSO THE SUGGESTION THE CWA WONT
SEE ANYTHING.

SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT THE CWA THIS MORNING...IT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY MIDDAY. LEFT THE AFTERNOON
HOURS DRY...WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG A SFC
BOUNDARY AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE
MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THESE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO REMAIN WEST
OF THE CWA PRIOR TO 00Z...WITH SOME QUESTION BETWEEN MODELS WITH
JUST HOW FAR EAST THE ACTIVITY WILL GET. KEPT THE LOW CHANCE POPS
GOING ACROSS WRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BETWEEN 00-06Z WITH
THE HOURS FOLLOWING DRY...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS NOT HIGH.
CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECTING A BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE CWA AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED TO THE W/NW OF THE
CWA...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. SRLY
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING INCREASED TEMPS ALOFT...WITH A BUMP UP IN
HIGHS EXPECTED. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S IN
THE FAR EAST TO MID/UPPER 90S IN THE W/SW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE CHANCES
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY.

A SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE LONG TERM. THERE IS SOME HIGH BASE CONVECTION THAT COULD
DEVELOP WITH A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
CWA AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST. WE SHOULD BE CAPPED AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOUGH TO DETERMINE AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES
SOUTH. IT REALLY LOOKS LIKE THIS COULD BE A SLEEPER FOR VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE PEAK HEATING OF THE
DAY WILL PROBABLY OCCUR BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CAN CLEAR NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL ABOVE 100 WITH
THE HELP OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE NOSE FOCUSED
NORTH OF THE CWA. I INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR NORTHERN CWA. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR A STRONG STORM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT FOCUSED NORTH...POSSIBLY HELPING TO SUPPORT EARLIER
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED FARTHER WEST EARLIER
IN THE DAY. THIS COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WITH A
STRONG CAP EXPECTED...THIS SHOULD DIE OUT IN THE MORNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE CLEARED THE CWA BY
THEN...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL AT SOME POINT. THE STRONG CAP
WOULD DETER CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING UNTIL EVENING...AND BY
THIS TIME...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO KEEP
CONVECTION FOCUSED EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD BECOME SEVERE...BUT AGAIN...THE
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH
WEST/NORTHWEST TO KEEP US OUT OF THIS AREA. MOST NUMERICAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE WELL CLEARED OUR CWA
BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND CAPPING WILL HELP KEEP THINGS DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CREEP INTO THE WEST/SOUTHWESTERN CWA
BY MONDAY NIGHT...AND CREEP EAST FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.

WE WILL HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES OUT OF CANADA. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS PLACE
US WELL WEST OF THE MAIN THRUST OF COLDER AIR...MUCH LIKE THE LAST
TIME THIS HAPPENED EARLIER IN THE MONTH. HIGHS ARE STILL FORECAST
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS MAY HAVE TO
BE LOWERED A BIT AS LONG RANGE NUMERICAL MODELS TEND TO RELY MORE
ON CLIMATOLOGY IN LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...DEE