Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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676
FXUS63 KGID 272027
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
327 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Radar is showing a few returns across the forecast area this
afternoon. Most of them should be virga since it is fairly dry at
the surface, but a few of them could have a few sprinkles. Satellite
and observations have clouds over much of the forecast area this
afternoon.

An upper level wave is moving into the forecast area this afternoon
and the showers should continue to increase across the area. Models
still have a few differences in timing the start of precipitation. A
few models already have some precipitation across the area. There
are the few returns, but most of those are not reaching the ground.
The best consensus should be that the main precipitation will wait
until closer to evening before it gets going for much of the area,
and the north would be even later. The best chances will be later
this evening into Friday morning. During this period, the main upper
level wave lifts to the north across the area. The precipitation
will lift to the north along with the wave. On Friday, the best
chance for precipitation will be in the northern part of the
forecast area, and of that, the best chance will be in the morning.
During the afternoon, there is a secondary upper level low that
develops in the four corners region. As that develops, there could
be a few showers developing in the southern part of the forecast
area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

The upper level low in the four corners region will continue to move
into the southern plains Friday night and Saturday. As this happens,
the focus turns to the south or southeast part of the forecast area.
The better chances for precipitation will be in the southern part of
the area. With the low to the south, colder air will be pulled into
the forecast area and there is a chance for some snow to mix with
the rain or even change over to all snow. On Saturday, as the
temperatures warm up, it should change back to rain.

Saturday night into Sunday the upper low strengthens and starts to
move to the northeast. More cold air continues to be wrapped into
the system and there is a better chance of some snow. This is a
little bit of a tricky period. The precipitation type will heavily
depend on the surface temperatures and if they are just a bit
colder, there could be more snow, a bit warmer, and it would be more
rain. The other complication is that the ground temperature is warm;
most locations are in the 55 to 60 degree range. It would have to
snow pretty hard and pretty fast to get much accumulation. The upper
level low continues to move to the northeast Sunday night into
Monday. The models keep precipitation in the forecast area Sunday
night and move it out Monday morning. Once again, the cold
temperatures could bring some snow to the area.

Monday afternoon through Tuesday there is northwest flow. There are
a few upper level waves that move through the area. Have kept things
dry during this period, but some of the models bring a few showers
through the area. Tuesday evening through Wednesday the wave is a
little stronger and there could be a few more showers again. Then
there is a break for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Showers will be moving into the terminals later this afternoon and
evening. Timing the start of the showers is a bit of a challenge.
There are already some returns on the radar, but they are likely
virga since there is a good temperature/dew point spread. Later
tonight and into Friday morning, there could be some IFR
conditions with the best chance of some showers.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...JCB



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