Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 270843
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
343 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MORNING HOURS...
A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALL THAT
REMAIN OF THE EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS THAT ENTERED WESTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL FORECAST MODELS STILL HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING...BUT THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN RECENT TRENDS AND WILL
KEEP POPS LOW THIS MORNING AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE 06Z NAM AND HRRR
AND THE 00Z GFS AND NMM-WRF ALL SHOW THAT POTENTIAL OF WEAK
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT WITH
THIS MCS DIEING OUT SO QUICKLY AND THE ATMOSPHERE SO WORKED OVER
BY THE MCS...AM NOT READY TO BUY INTO MUCH ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WE WILL SEE A DRY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY FORM WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA NEAR THE COLORADO STATE LINE
WITH KANSAS AND NEBRASKA THE SAME AS YESTERDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 7 PM. THE BIG ISSUE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN BE THE STIFLING HEAT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE.

THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
UNLIKE LAST EVENING...THERE WILL BE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FROM A NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH AND A STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAKING IT
FURTHER EAST INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AND GIVE THUNDERSTORMS A
BETTER CHANCE OF KEEPING THEIR INTENSITY/SEVERITY UP AS THEY ENTER
OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE MOST
LIKELY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES...BUT EASTERN ZONES WILL ALSO SEE
A BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING IN ON THE THUNDERSTORM ACTION LATER
TONIGHT THANKS TO THE BETTER DYNAMIC SUPPORT/ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
JET. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES WHEN THE STORMS ARE AT THEIR
STRONGEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THIS SECTION WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF DIEING
CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT MOST OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIED OUT IN
THE KGRI AND KEAR AREA AND WE ARE LOOKING AT MAYBE A LITTLE LIGHT
RAIN AS THINGS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO LIGHTEN
UP AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE BEHIND THE GUST FRONT. WE DO HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE BY MONDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY LATE EVENING. THE WIND THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...WESELY



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