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000
FXUS63 KGID 101052
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
551 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

FOR THOSE WHO THOUGHT YESTERDAY WAS PLEASANT...TODAY WILL PROBABLY
TOP IT THANKS TO SIMILAR TEMPERATURES THAT COULD AT LEAST APPROACH
RECORD VALUES IN PLACES SUCH AS HASTINGS...AND WITH NOTICEABLY-
LIGHTER WINDS THAN SUNDAY IN MOST AREAS. THAT BEING SAID...EVEN
WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MODEST
ENHANCEMENT OF SPEEDS AT TIMES WHICH COULD PROMOTE SOME MARGINAL
FIRE DANGER GIVEN VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...AND THIS IS
COVERED IN GREATER DETAIL IN A SEPARATE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW. OTHERWISE...THERE IS ESSENTIALLY ZERO RISK OF PRECIP
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ALL OF THAT ACTION HOLDING OFF
UNTIL THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT PERIODS DESCRIBED IN THE LONG TERM
BELOW.

STARTING OFF WITH THE HERE AND NOW...09Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAIRLY SUBTLE TROUGH AXIS CUTTING ALONG A
LINE FROM EAST-CENTRAL NEB TO NORTH CENTRAL KS...TRAILING WELL-
SOUTHWARD FROM A PARENT SUB-1000 MILLIBAR LOW CENTERED NORTH OF
MN. LOCALLY...THIS SUBTLE FEATURE IS ONLY SERVING AS A WIND-SHIFT
LINE...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA REPORTING A LIGHT WEST-
NORTHWEST BREEZE UP TO AROUND 10 MPH...WHILE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ZONES AND POINTS EAST ARE STILL HOLDING ON TO A BIT MORE OF A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. ALOFT IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM A BROAD AREA OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WELL TO THE
NORTH OF A NEARLY CUT-OFF LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS CENTERED
FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO WEST TX...AND WELL-DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF INTEREST JUST NOW ARRIVING ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST. 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
SMATTERING OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...RESULTING IN A VARIABLE MIX OF SKY COVER GENERALLY
AVERAGING PARTLY CLOUDY. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT BUT STEADY
WESTERLY BREEZE ALONG WITH CLOUDS DRIFTING OVERHEAD HAVE KEPT
TEMPS UP SOMEWHERE IN THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
NIGHT SO FAR...BUT AM STILL AIMING FOR MOST AREAS TO EVENTUALLY
DROP DOWN TO LOWS SOMEWHERE IN THE 37-42 RANGE IF THEY HAVENT
ALREADY.

GETTING INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS...THE MAIN STORY IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS INVOLVES A CONTINUATION OF MUCH THE SAME...AS QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW/SUBTLE RIDGING PERSISTS WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WHICH IS ONLY PROGGED TO
REACH THE NV/UT/ID BORDER AREA BY SUNSET THIS EVENING. AS A
RESULT...SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERALLY AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY
TODAY UNDER AN EVER-EVOLVING MIX OF CLEARING AND PASSING MID-HIGH
CLOUDS. AT THE SURFACE...THE CURRENT LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZE
REGIME WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE SOUTHERLY MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...WHILE RETAINING MORE OF A WESTERLY
COMPONENT IN MANY SOUTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES. THANKS TO A MUCH
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT THAN YESTERDAY...SUSTAINED SPEEDS FOR
MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD NOT EXCEED 10 TO 15 MPH...ALTHOUGH WITH
DEEP MIXING POTENTIAL TO AROUND 800 MB OR HIGHER PER NAM/RAP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MODEST GUSTS UP
INTO THE 15-20 MPH IN MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
MAYBE UP TO AROUND 25 MPH MAINLY IN FAR WESTERN COUNTIES SUCH AS
THE DAWSON-FURNAS CORRIDOR. TEMP-WISE...SEE LITTLE REASON WHY MOST
PLACES SHOULDN/T MEET OR EXCEED SUNDAY/S VALUES AS LONG AS SKIES
MAINTAIN NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY STANDING. AS A RESULT...AND
LEANING ON A MIX OF THE 00Z NAM/04Z RAP13...UPPED HIGHS 2-3
DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AIMING FOR A BROAD
COVERAGE OF MAINLY MID 70S IN NEB...AND UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 IN KS
ZONES. AS DISCUSSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW...DEWPOINTS
WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS AS MODELS SUCH AS THE
NAM APPEAR TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE ON SHOWING AT LEAST MODEST
INCREASES IN MOISTURE TODAY...DESPITE REGIONAL OBS ALREADY THIS
MORNING CALLING INTO QUESTION WHERE THESE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WOULD
MATERIALIZE FROM.

TURNING TO THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST STARTS TO AMPLIFY
AND PHASE A BIT WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT ANY FORCING/SATURATION FOR
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME NO CLOSER THAN FAR NORTHERN NEB BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING...AND IN FACT MAINLY STILL UP INTO SD.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE NIGHT SHOULD PROVE A BIT MORE
INTERESTING AS THE LEADING EDGES OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
STARTS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA. PRIOR TO THIS FRONTS
ARRIVAL...THE EVENING HOURS SHOULD REMAIN MILD AND TRANQUIL WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZES. THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE
BREEZES WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA...NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE INCREASING NORTH BREEZES ESPECIALLY
AFTER 09Z/4AM...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS BY SUNRISE UP INTO THE 13-20
MPH RANGE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BATCH OF
SOUTHWARD-MOVING LOW STRATUS CLOUDS...BUT ONLY THE FAR
NORTHERN/WEST-CENTRAL COUNTIES WOULD LIKELY SEE THIS BEFORE THE
END OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD. TEMPERATURE-WISE TONIGHT...BOTH LOWS
AND HOURLY TRENDS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY AS TEMPS COULD FALL PRETTY
EFFICIENTLY AS WINDS LIGHTEN IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT
THEN POTENTIALLY BOUNCE BACK UP AS MIXING INCREASES IMMEDIATELY
ALONG/BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND BEFORE NOTABLE COLD AIR ADVECTION
KICKS IN. FOR NOW THOUGH MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO LOW
TEMPS...STILL AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 37-42 RANGE...OR
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS VALUES. THESE LOWS ARE GENERALLY A
FEW DEGREES MILDER THAN A BLEND OF 00Z MET/MAV GUIDANCE...WHICH
APPEARS SLIGHTLY TOO COOL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 506 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE.

MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL HAVE SPLIT FLOW CHARACTERISTICS AND BE
RATHER COMPLEX. WE WILL START THE LONG TERM TUESDAY MORNING WITH A
COLD FRONT SLICING THROUGH THE CWA WHICH IS PRECEDING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISED BY NUMERICAL MODELS. SYNOPTIC LIFT IS
MODERATE AND IS MAXIMIZED TOWARD AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE
REALLY IS NOT MUCH FORNTOGENETIC FORCING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO
SPEAK OF. PRESSURE RISES STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 6
MB PER 3 HOUR RANGE...AND PERHAPS PEAKING OUT NEAR 7 MB PER 3 HOUR
RANGE IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA. THIS SHOULD ALMOST ENSURE THAT WE
WILL BE WITHIN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH WIND
SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL DECREASE BY TUESDAY NIGHT...IT WILL REMAIN
QUITE GUSTY WELL INTO THE NIGHT. FOLLOWED CLOSER TO CONSRAW FOR
HIGHS TUESDAY AND BCCONSRAW FOR LOWS. THIS COULD BE A TOUGH CALL FOR
TEMPERATURES...WITH THE NAM COMING IN A LITTLE COOLER THAN CONSRAW.
A FEW DEGREES CAN MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE ON WHETHER ANY SNOW STARTS
IN THE EVENING OR BY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT MOST OF ANY SNOW
MENTIONED INTO THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS APPEAR LIGHT AS
ANY SYNOPTIC LIFT APPEARS TO BE QUICK-HITTING. ALONG WITH LIGHT
QPF...THE GROUND SHOULD BE FAIRLY WARM AT ITS SURFACE DUE TO THE
REMARKABLY WARM WEATHER AS OF LATE. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS
THAN A HALF INCH AND WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. ALTHOUGH I HAVE
INCREASE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...QPF AMOUNTS AGAIN SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT. THE 06Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND GFS HAVE BACKED OFF OF QPF
AMOUNTS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL PAINT LIGHT QPF OVER
THE CWA.

A JET STREAK WILL HIT THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND HEAD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TO PRECLUDE US FROM PRECIPITATION ON
WEDNESDAY.

WE WILL BE VOID OF ANY MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES TO SPEAK OF FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WEAK FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. MILD
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AGAIN BY LATE WORK WEEK...ALTHOUGH NOT
QUITE AS ABOVE NORMAL AS WE HAVE BEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE NEXT SHOT AT PRECIPITATION COMES MAINLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WEST
COAST AS A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES SOUTH ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE RIDGE...PROMPTING ANOTHER SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION.
FOR NOW IT LOOKS WARM ENOUGH TO BE MAINLY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

THERE REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ONLY VARYING DEGREES OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
MAINLY BASED AROUND 20 THOUSAND FEET AGL...AND ESSENTIALLY ZERO
RISK OF PRECIPITATION. SURFACE WINDS WILL AVERAGE CONSIDERABLY
LIGHTER THAN DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
PRIMARILY 10KT OR LESS...AND DIRECTION GENERALLY PREVAILING FROM
THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT/VARIABLE
BREEZES CENTERED BETWEEN 16Z-20Z DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. ON ONE LAST NOTE...THERE COULD BE SOME MARGINAL LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE VERY LOWEST LEVELS WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED
FEET AGL FOR A FEW HOURS RIGHT AWAY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
NOTHING THAT CURRENTLY APPEARS TO MEET THE 30KT-OR-HIGHER SHEAR
MAGNITUDE DIFFERENCE FOR A FORMAL TAF INCLUSION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

COMPARED TO SUNDAY...THE OVERALL-MAGNITUDE OF FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE CWA WILL BE LESS...THANKS TO SUSTAINED WINDS/GUSTS ONLY AVERAGING
AROUND 10-15 MPH/15-20 MPH IN MOST AREAS DURING THE PEAK OF
AFTERNOON HEATING. THAT BEING SAID...FIRE DANGER IS CERTAINLY NON-
ZERO...AS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY ASPECT OF THE EQUATION IS AGAIN
LOOKING FAIRLY DUBIOUS WITH VALUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA NOW
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 13-22 PERCENT RANGE FOR AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS SOLIDLY 5-10 PERCENT LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED. THE MOST CONCENTRATED ZONE OF RH
VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT OR LOWER IS FORECAST WITHIN NORTH
CENTRAL KS ZONES PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GETTING BACK TO WIND SPEEDS
THOUGH...THE LATEST FORECAST VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA
GENERALLY FALL 5-10 MPH SHORT OF CRITICAL THRESHOLDS OF SUSTAINED
20+ MPH/GUST 25+ MPH...AND AS A RESULT OF THIS WILL NOT ONLY
ABSTAIN FROM ANY HEADLINES...BUT WILL ALSO SOMEWHAT RELUCTANTLY
KEEP ANY MENTION OF NEAR-CRITICAL DANGER OUT OF THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO). THAT BEING SAID...DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON WIND SPEEDS ESPECIALLY WITHIN FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES SUCH AS THE DAWSON-FURNAS CORRIDOR...AS THERE ARE HINTS
PER SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP13 THAT WESTERLY GUSTS COULD
POTENTIALLY SPIKE UP TO AROUND CRITICAL 25 MPH LEVELS AT LEAST
BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH
THAT A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE WIND SPEEDS FALL WELL-
SHORT OF TRULY-PROBLEMATIC VALUES FOR SIGNIFICANT FIRE ISSUES SUCH
AS PARTS OF THE STATE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

THE ONGOING AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE PLATTE RIVER IN EAST-
CENTRAL HALL COUNTY AND THE ADVISORY FOR THE LOUP RIVER IN CENTRAL
NANCE COUNTY CONTINUE AS-IS EARLY THIS MORNING. OUR ONCOMING DAY
SHIFT WILL CERTAINLY GET IN TOUCH WITH COUNTY OFFICIALS AND/OR
RIVER OBSERVERS AND LIKELY UPDATE THESE PRODUCTS WITHIN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH ANY NEW INFORMATION THAT MIGHT BE RECEIVED. IN
THE MEANTIME...WE ENCOURAGE AND WELCOME ANY UPDATED GROUND-TRUTH
INFORMATION REGARDING ONGOING AND POTENTIAL ICE JAMS WITHIN OUR
CWA...AS THESE LOCALIZED OCCURRENCES ARE OFTEN NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE
TO DETECT USING THE LIMITED NETWORK OF AUTOMATED RIVER/STREAM
SENSORS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

FOR THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE DAY...ONE OF OUR TWO PRIMARY CLIMATE
RECORDS SITES...HASTINGS...COULD AT LEAST APPROACH A RECORD DAILY
HIGH...WHILE THE OTHER SITE GRAND ISLAND APPEARS TO BE SAFELY OUT
OF REACH. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR MARCH 10TH ARE AS
FOLLOWS:

- HASTINGS: 78 IN 1967/1936 (CURRENT FORECAST 75)
- GRAND ISLAND: 84 IN 1989 (CURRENT FORECAST 75)

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH
HYDROLOGY...PFANNKUCH