Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 172036

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
336 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Second day in row to start off with plenty of status and fog
around, once again it was slow to dissipate for some. A narrow
axis running from just southwest of Hastings, up through Grand
Island and into Nance County was very stubborn, with Hast/GI just
getting sun in the last hour, while part of Nance/Merrick are
still stuck under the clouds. At the surface, an area of low
pressure has been gradually pushing east across the area,
accompanied by a cold frontal boundary which is about halfway
through the CWA. Gusty southerly winds affecting the eastern half
of the CWA, with gusty northwest winds just now starting to work
into the west. Plan on cancelling a portion of the RFW, between
the lingering cloud cover messing with temps/dtps and the boundary
through the area, eastern portions of the RFW will be let go. The
chances of even western areas actually hitting criteria are not
high, but with the warmest temps occurring now and gustier winds
starting to build in, will keep it going. 3 pm temps range from
the upper 60s where that stratus was, to the lower 80s on the
fringes of the CWA.

Dry conditions remain in the forecast for tonight/tomorrow, as the
generally zonal flow aloft continues across the Central Plains.
At the surface, this area of low pressure/front will continue
pushing east this evening, with high pressure building in across
the region during the day tomorrow. Will be a pleasant, cooler day
tomorrow, with winds in the afternoon around 5-10 MPH and highs in
the mid 60s to near 70.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Main concern in the long term period lies with mid-week
precipitation chances.

Tuesday night, models are in good agreement showing upper level
flow turning more southwesterly, as a low amplitude shortwave
disturbance is pushing through the Rockies. A few models try to
bring some light QPF into far northwestern areas very early Wed
morning, but will continue to keep the forecast dry unless there
is more support. Overall there hasn`t been any significant changes
in the 12Z models with the timing/location of this disturbance,
bringing it through the area mainly during the daytime hours on
Wednesday. One minor change was that things may not clear the CWA
as quickly, lingering a bit into the evening, and did add 20 PoPs
to eastern portions of the CWA. Models continue to show
instability concentrated south- southeast of the area, and kept
the thunder mention out. Expecting a bump down in highs for
Wednesday, with upper 50s north to mid 60s south current in the

For the remainder of the long term period, Thursday through
Sunday, the forecast continues to be a dry one. Models are in
good agreement that once this mid week disturbance slides east,
northwesterly flow/ridging takes its place. Expecting a gradual
warm up through the end of the week, with 70s for the upcoming


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Narrow band of low level stratus continues to affect the GRI
terminal with sub-1000ft ceilings, but based of satellite trends
this should be short-lived and confined to another hour or so.
Once this passes, VFR conditions are forecast for both terminal
sites for this TAF period. Current light winds are expected to
turn more westerly over the next few hours, and gusts near 25 MPH
are expected this afternoon. Speeds look to diminish down to near
10 MPH this evening and overnight. LLWS remains a concern between
02-10Z, with models continuing to show a corridor of stronger NW
winds aloft developing over the area.


NE...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039-046-060-

KS...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005-017.



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