Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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436
FXUS63 KGID 020918
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
418 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

OVERVIEW...THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FROST ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES THIS MORNING WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT AND ALLOWED
FOR RADIATIVE COOLING DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH LIGHT
WINDS. HOWEVER...AFTER A COLD MORNING START AND SEVERAL COOL DAYS
WE WILL WARM UP NICELY THANKS TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HELPING HIGHS
TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S. ALSO HAVING ONLY A LIGHT WIND WILL
MAKE IT FEEL MORE PLEASANT TODAY. WE HAVE A LITTLE CLIPPER COMING
DOWN OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. MOST OF
ANY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
TONIGHT IN OUR EXTREME WESTERN ZONES.

FROST ADVISORY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLEARLY BE IN THE FROST
FORMATION ZONE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING. THE
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 31 AND 36 IN THE
AREAS WHERE WE HAVE ISSUED THE FROST ADVISORY. WE WERE ALREADY
CALLING FOR FROST IN THESE AREAS DURING PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND
HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING IT IN OUR HWO PRODUCT AND ON SOCIAL MEDIA.
THERE WAS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW THE CLOUDS WOULD CLEAR OUT
HURTING CONFIDENCE ON THE EARLIER FROST FORECAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN
NOW THE PRETTY MUCH CERTAINTY OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED THE ACTUAL FROST HEADLINE
SHOULD ANYONE BE WAITING FOR A HEADLINE TO ACT OR GETTING UP EARLY
TO CHECK ON SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

SHOWERS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS IS LACKING MOISTURE AND WILL BE FOCUSED TO THE WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BASED ON MOST MAJOR FORECAST MODELS. MUCAPE VALUES
SHOULD ONLY MAX OUT BETWEEN 50-100 J/KG IN OUR NORTHWEST. SO SURE
WE COULD HAVE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO...BUT GIVEN THAT IT IS THE
MONTH OF MAY THAT HARDLY SEEMS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AND WILL JUST GO WITH THE MORE LIKELY
DOMINATE MODE OF RAIN SHOWERS. EVEN THEN WE ARE ONLY CALLING FOR A
NARROW SLIVER OF GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THESE FAR WESTERN ZONES NEARER THE SHORT WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THIS SECTION WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. THERE
IS JUST THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF SOME MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT OVERALL WE EXPECT VFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY WITH THIS TAF. THE WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND OUT OF
THE WEST NORTHWEST TODAY AND THEN SWING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY LATER
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-046-
     047-060-061-072-073-082.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...WESELY



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