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000
FXUS63 KGID 280552
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1152 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

BEEN A QUIET BUT STILL CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE REGION...UPPER LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY ZONAL...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A
WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE E/SE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLY CREEPING INTO SWRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...NOT LOOKING AT ANY OTHER PRECIPITATION THE
REST OF TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY
INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH CURRENTLY IS CENTERED ROUGHLY
OVER THE IA/IL BORDER. THE CWA SITS BETWEEN THAT AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE ROCKIES...KEEPING THOSE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE.
OCCASIONALLY SEEING A GUST IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE...BUT
OTHERWISE SPEEDS HAVE BEEN AROUND 10 MPH. HASNT BEEN ANY SURPRISES
WITH TEMPS...3 PM OBS RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE MAIN STORY WITH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD LIES AS WE APPROACH
SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING THEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME
HOURS. THE EVENING AND MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY...SITTING IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES...WITH THE NEXT MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE ROCKIES.
LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO WRN KS...AND WHILE THERE IS SOME MODEL VARIANCE WITH
HOW QUICKLY ACTIVITY SLIDES INTO THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA...KEPT
POPS ON THE LOW SIDE PRIOR TO 12Z...IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST MODELS
/OTHERS ARE QUICKER/. RAMPED UP POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS REMAINING NEAR/SOUTH OF THE NEB/KS STATE LINE. THE LATEST RUN
OF MODELS DEFINITELY DID NOT TREND UP WITH QPF/SNOW...AND OVERALL
ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BOTH. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT
THIS WAVE COMING THROUGH WILL BE A PRIMARILY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON EVENT...AND A LULL IN THE SNOWFALL IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE ARRIVES TOMORROW EVENING/JUST
AFTER THE END OF THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AFTER COLLAB WITH LONG TERM FORECASTER AND NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...DECIDED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR OSBORNE AND
MITCHELL COUNTIES OF NC KS...WHERE THERE IS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH AROUND 1-2 OF
THAT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
THANKFULLY...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN WITH THE
FALLING SNOW. THE SFC PATTERN REALLY DOESNT CHANGE MUCH...KEEPING
WINDS SOUTHERLY...AND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AROUND 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FORECAST INCLUDES TWO SNOW EVENTS FOLLOWED BY A WARM UP.

MODELS STILL HAVE QUITE A FEW DIFFERENCES FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE
LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE STILL IN QUESTION. THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MANY OF THE MODELS HAVE A LITTLE BREAK IN THE
SNOW GOING INTO SATURDAY EVENING BUT THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE NEXT QUESTION BECOMES WHEN THE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END. THE
NAM AND SOME OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SNOW
SHOULD END BY DAY BREAK ON SUNDAY...BUT OTHERS HAVE A MORE MID
MORNING END TIME FOR THE SNOW. HAVE KEPT SOME SNOW IN SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT KEPT SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRY. EVEN THIS IS A LITTLE IN
QUESTION SINCE THE GFS HAS A BAND OF SNOW JUST TO THE SOUTH DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY. IF THIS WERE TO MOVE NORTH A LITTLE...IT COULD
KEEP SNOWING IN THE FAR SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO PUSH THE SNOW TO THE SOUTH AND GRADUALLY CLEAR
THE CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. IT ALSO KEEPS THE
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE ALSO A FEW DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS FOR THIS TIME. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS HAVE
DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH AND WHERE. WILL KEEP JUST LOW POPS DURING
THIS TIME. WARM ADVECTION WILL START TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL MEAN SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY IN KANSAS AND
NEARBY SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
WARM UP IS SHORT LIVED. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD FALL
DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL TURN MIXED PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ENDING DURING THE NIGHT.

THE GOOD NEWS COMES THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. ONCE THIS SYSTEM IS
THROUGH THE AREA...WEDNESDAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE COLD AS A
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES INTO THE AREA. ONCE THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST...THERE WILL BE WARM ADVECTION AND
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM UP. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL...BUT ABOUT 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD BE
AROUND OR EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY 15Z.

SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THIS SNOWFALL
WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF KEAR AND KGRI. OBVIOUSLY THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED DURING THE TAF PERIOD...BUT AT THIS TIME THE
PROBABILITY OF SNOWFALL BEING REALIZED AT EITHER TAF SITE IS TOO
LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL START THE TAF
PERIOD FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 10-12KTS...BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR KSZ018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...BRYANT