


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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474 FXUS63 KGID 292038 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 338 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a marginal to slight risk of severe storms mainly this evening into the overnight hours. Damaging winds, large hail, and locally heavy rainfall will be the main threats. - After Monday morning, there is a slight chance (15% to 30%) of storms Tuesday night into Wednesday and an even higher chance (around 30% to 50%) of storms Friday evening. - Temperatures cool off into the low to mid 80s for Monday then warm back up into the low to mid 90s on Wednesday. Temperatures for Thursday and Friday will be similar to Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Today and tonight... An upper trough centered over Canada extends southward to Nebraska. A cold front associated with this trough is positioned across/near the Kansas/Nebraska border. Temperatures across north central Kansas and south central and central Nebraska will range from the low 80s to the mid 90s. This front may drop slightly southward later this afternoon into this evening but will remain across north central Kansas. Storms may develop (around a 20% to 30% chance) along this front later this afternoon into this evening. High CAPE and mid-level lapse rates will be present but wind shear will be lacking with values getting up to around 20 knots. These conditions may still result in some strong to severe storms mainly across north central Kansas and far south central Nebraska later this afternoon into this evening. The main threats with these storms will be large hail and damaging winds. A shortwave trough is expected to move over the area tonight. Sufficient CAPE, mid-level lapse rates, and wind shear will be across the area to allow for another round of severe weather. The models are showing a complex of storms moving into the area from the northwest although the models differ somewhat on the arrival of this complex of storms. The models are generally showing the storms arriving between midnight and 3 AM for locations northwest of the Tri-Cities with the complex continuing to move southeastward. The main threats with these storms will be damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall; however, some isolated hail up to around quarter size may occur initially with these storms. Flash flooding will be possible in areas with saturated soils from recent rainfall. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 50s to upper 60s. Monday through Saturday... Showers and storms may still be ongoing Monday morning, especially for areas south and east of the Tri-Cities area. This activity is expected to mostly be out of the area by Monday afternoon. Northerly winds will be across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas on Monday with temperatures warming up into the low to mid 80s. Temperatures are expected to cool into the mid 50s to mid 60s Monday night with the area on the backside of the upper trough. Upper ridging will mostly be over the area on Tuesday with temperatures warming up into the mid 80s to low 90s. Low temperatures Tuesday night will be in the 60s. Southerly winds will be across the area on Wednesday with temperatures warming up into the upper 80s to mid 90s. There is a slight chance of showers and storms on Wednesday with a shortwave trough passing overhead. Southerly winds will continue Wednesday night with temperatures cooling into the mid 60s to low 70s. High temperatures on Thursday will be similar or a degree or two warmer than those on Wednesday. Winds will be a little stronger out of the south on Thursday with gusts up to 20 to 30 mph. Low temperatures Thursday night will range from the upper 60s to the low to mid 70s. Winds will be gusty out of the south to southwest on Friday with gusts up to 20 to 30 mph. High temperatures on Friday will be similar to the previous day with highs in the low to mid 90s. An approaching upper trough Friday evening will result in increased chances (around 30% to 50%) of showers and thunderstorms. Low temperatures Friday night will be in the mid 60s to low 70s. An upper trough will pass over the central Plains on Saturday with a cold front entering the area. This front will result in high temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s on Saturday. Rain and storm chances (15% to 35%) will linger through Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: MVFR ceilings are expected until around 19z. Low ceilings are expected to return around 07z-09z and continue until 16z-18z. Storms are possible beginning around 06z-08z and will continue until around 10z-13z. Winds are expected to become northeasterly this afternoon and will remain out of the northeast to north through the rest of the period (with the exception of variable winds with thunderstorms). Winds will strengthen out of the north around 15z Monday with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Schuldt AVIATION...Schuldt