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000
FXUS63 KGID 051159
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
559 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE. DID MAKE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUDS THRU MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

...ARCTIC AIR AND PERIODS OF BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS WILL AFFECT
THE CNTRL PLAINS THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK...

ALOFT: A DEEP POSITIVE-TILT LONGWAVE TROF EXTENDED FROM THE NRN
PLAINS TO CA. 500 MB HEIGHTS WERE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL WITHIN THIS TROF. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROF MOVED THRU
OVERNIGHT AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR 1-2 HRS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER
N-CNTRL KS. THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL SHIFT E FROM SRN CA
INTO CO/NM TONIGHT. THE ELONGATED POLAR JET AXIS WILL SLIP SE OF
THE FCST AREA THRU TONIGHT AS THE TROF ADVANCES...PUTTING THE
CNTRL PLAINS IN THE UNFAVORABLE QUADRANT FOR ANY WX.

SURFACE: DEEP LOW PRES WAS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG THE ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WHICH NOW IS DEEP INTO TX. STRONG 1049 MB HIGH PRES WAS
OVER WRN CANADA AND WHILE IT WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE
REGION THRU TONIGHT...IT WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE.

EARLY THIS MORNING: MID-HIGH CLOUDS HAVE LARGELY DEPARTED LEAVING
CLEAR SKIES. NW WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE BUT GENERALLY 10-20
MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH. SO EXPECT A SUNNY BUT
STINGINGLY COLD START.

BITTER WINTER COLD IS HERE IN FULL FORCE AND THIS WILL BE A LONG
DURATION EVENT. HEATING SYSTEM AND VEHICLE BATTERIES AS WELL AS
PLUMBING SYSTEMS THAT ARE NOT PROPERLY INSULATED COULD BE A VICTIM
OF THIS 6 DAY PERIOD OF EXCESSIVE COLD.

TODAY: SUNNY AND BITTERLY COLD...BUT THE SUN WILL BE FILTERED AT
TIMES BY PATCHES OF HIGH AND INCREASINGLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS S OF
I-80. BY SUNSET N-CNTRL KS WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. NW WINDS WILL
SLACKEN...BUT IT WILL MATTER LITTLE. ANY AIR MOVEMENT WILL MAKE IT
FEEL COLDER THAN IT ALREADY IS. HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 25F COLDER
THAN NORMAL!

MODEL SOUNDINGS OFFER DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN STRATOCU TO FORM.

TONIGHT: W E MAY NEED A WIND CHILL /WC/ ADVISORY INTO FRI MORNING
FOR MULTIPLE HRS OF -20 TO -29F. RIGHT NOW THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY
OF OCCURRENCE IS OVER VALLEY/GREELEY/SHERMAN/HOWARD COUNTIES.

INCREASING CLOUDS. FCST CLOUD COVER WAS BOOSTED A FULL CATEGORY
/PARTLY CLOUDY N OF HWY 6 AND MOSTLY CLOUDY S/. HOWEVER...MULTI-
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST WE MAY NOT HAVE GONE HIGH ENOUGH. IF
THIS IS THE CASE THAN OUR LOW TEMPS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY OF
BUSTING TOO COLD OVER MUCH OF S-CNTRL NEB. THIS IS A POTENTIAL
WEAKNESS IN THIS FCST. THIS ALSO HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR WC ADVISORY.

A CHANCE OF FLURRIES HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FCST OVER MUCH OF
N-CNTRL KS. SATURATION WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPER WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. HOWEVER...LIFT IS MINIMAL.

LOW TEMPS WERE RAISED SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS GID FCST
S OF HWY 6...BASED ON THICKER CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

THE MAIN STORY WILL NOT ONLY CONTINUE TO BE THE COLD WEATHER...
BUT ALSO A CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...A SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SLIDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WITH SFC PRESSURE CLIMBING TO OVER 1040 MB BY EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS IS THE HEART OF THE COLD DRY AIR AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE OVER 25 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...STRUGGLING INTO THE LOWER TEENS NEBRASKA TO MID TEENS
KANSAS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS WILL ALSO MAKE IT DIFFICULT
TO WARM MUCH. ON A POSITIVE NOTE...IT WILL BE DRY AND THE WIND IS
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT WITH THE SFC HIGH NEAR BY.

SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR A
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A WARMUP
WITH THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE STUCK IN
THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS. A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST MODELS KEEP
US DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT
A FEW FLURRIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH THE MODEL MAJORITY
AND KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH GOOD PROLONGED
ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS IS AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WITHOUT MUCH OF A
LOW AT THE SFC. THEREFORE...THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
WEAK...WHICH WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS. DESPITE THE LACK OF ANY
KIND OF IMPRESSIVE SFC FEATURE...THE UPPER SYSTEM IS DEEP AND
FORMIDABLE. THE OVER RUNNING SET UP WILL BE EXPANSIVE...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS PRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH TIME. THE NEAR
SFC TEMPERATURES WILL BE SO COLD THAT MOST OF THE SATURATED
FORECAST SOUNDING WILL BE IN THE VERY FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE. THIS WILL PROMOTE HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF PERHAPS AT
LEAST 20:1. WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THIS SET UP AND HAVE
RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
AND THE EXPECTED LARGE AREAL COVERAGE THAT SHOULD MAKE IT EASIER
FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EVENT. CURRENT
INDICATIONS WOULD PUT PERIOD TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH NEIGHBORHOOD...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A GOOD WAYS OFF.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
WILL SWEEP THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING
WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM. CONSEQUENTLY...HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY
ONCE AGAIN BE STUCK IN THE TEENS. THERE ARE SIGNS OF A MODERATING
TREND AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT SNOW COVER COULD
HAMPER THAT WARM UP AND WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD...GENERALLY IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP NEXT WEEK DRY FOR NOW...BUT SOME MODELS LIKE
THE 00Z GFS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
TUESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

TODAY: VFR WITH 25K FT CIRRUS POSSIBLY BECOMING A CIG THIS
AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 20 KTS THRU 16Z
THEN SETTLING 10-15 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

TONIGHT: VFR. CIRRUS CIGS GRADUALLY DESCEND TO MULTI- LAYERED
MID- LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 10K FT. N WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB