Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 022101
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
301 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

LOTS GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WITH CHCS FOR LIGHT FREEZING
PCPN TONIGHT AND INTENSE WINDS ON TUESDAY.

THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS. FARTHER
UPSTREAM IN CANADA...THE FLOW WAS SPLIT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING SE FROM ALBERTA. AT THE SFC...LOW
PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES...AND
SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW WAS STEADY AND WINDS GUSTY IN THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

THE SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW WILL DRAW MOISTURE NORTH AND MODELS PROG
THE AIRMASS OVER OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS TO ADVECT INTO OUR REGION
TONIGHT. A WIDESPREAD SWATH OF STRATUS IN THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO
MIGRATE NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH
THE STRATUS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS OUR ENTIRE CWA OVERNIGHT. ONCE
THE LOW CLOUDS/LOW LLVL MOISTURE SETTLES IN...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW...MIXING THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THE LIFT/MIXING IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
DRIZZLE...BEGINNING IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND SPREADING NORTH
DURING THE NIGHT. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHAT THE LOWLEVEL
TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL BE AS THE MAJORITY OF MODELS DROP TEMPS
BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING...WITH READINGS TRENDING ABOVE
FREEZING SOUTH TO NORTH HEADING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE RAP
REMAINS THE WARMEST WITH THE SFC TEMP PROFILE AND ONLY SUGGESTS
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING BEFORE WARMING. ULTIMATELY...FOR LOWS HAVE DONE A
MODEL BLEND AMONGST SEVERAL MODELS WHICH DO DROP READINGS BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA. WITH READINGS BELOW FREEZING AND
THE MOISTURE/LIFT INCREASING...HAVE SEVERAL HOURS TONIGHT WHERE
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. BELIEVE PCPN WILL BE MORE IN THE WAY
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE VS FREEZING RAIN AND DO NOT WANT THINGS TO
SOUND SCARIER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED. HAVE OPTED AGAINST ANY
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE SFC TEMPS
ABOVE/BELOW FREEZING HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXTENT OF THE DRIZZLE.

HEADING INTO TUESDAY...TEMPS RISE SOUTH/NORTH IN WAA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT
CROSSES OUR CWA RIGHT AWAY IN THE MORNING...AND THE COLD FROPA
WILL BE NOTICEABLE WITH INTENSE NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING WITH
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT AVERAGING 5 TO 7MB ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA. NORTH WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 MPH AND GUST
TO 40 MPH OR HIGHER AT TIMES. THE COLD FROPA WILL SCOUR THE LLVL
MOISTURE BUT FORCING ALONG BOUNDARY MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
FLURRIES OR POSSIBLY VERY LIGHT SNOW BUT CHANCES FOR SNOW ARE
HIGHER NORTH OF OUR CWA BASED ON UPPER DYNAMICS. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE EARLY IN THE DAY IN WAA AHEAD OF FRONT AND WITH MIXING WITH
FROPA...THEN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADY/FALL IN THE AFTN HOURS
IN THE CAA. TUESDAY IS JUST NOT LOOKING LIKE A NICE DAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THE ONSET...FOLLOWED BY INTENSE
WINDS/CAA FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE A
BAND OF SNOW THAT SPREADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST
DURING THE EVENING THEN MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. IT LOOKS LIKE IT
SHOULD BE A BAND OF SNOW THAT MOVES FAIRLY RAPIDLY THROUGH THE AREA.
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WHILE THE BEST
SNOW SHOULD BE IN THE WEST AND SOUTH. STILL LOOKS LIKE AROUND A HALF
INCH.

ONCE THE SNOW MOVES OUT A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
THIS WILL BRING COLD TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY THERE IS WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES
START TO WARM UP. THURSDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...STILL A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE WARM AIR LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. THE
ONLY FEATURE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS AND AROUND 30 FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

LOOK FOR CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. AT THE
ONSET...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...SOUTH WINDS WILL BE STEADY/GUSTY
WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 30KTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL DRAW LLVL MOISTURE NORTH AND CIGS ARE FCST TO LOWER TO IFR
CATEGORY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. THE MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
LIFT OVER THE LLVL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE LIGHT PCPN IN
THE FORM OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WHICH WILL LAST UNTIL TUESDAY
MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINAL EARLY
TUESDAY...SCOURING THE LLVL MOISTURE AND BRINGING AN END TO THE
LIGHT PCPN. INTENSE NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH FROPA WITH GUSTS
TO 35KTS FCST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...FAY


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