Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 112141
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
341 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIODS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. EXPECT THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...
VISIBLE IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...TO HELP
STEER A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WHICH
WILL ADVECT A NOTABLY COLDER AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
FOR FRIDAY. WHILE THE FOCUS OF THIS COLDER AIR WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...EXPECT ANOTHER CLOUDY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
DAY ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FORECAST ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

OTHER THAN CLOUD COVER...GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT...WITH A BIT OF
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE CONFIDENCE OF FOG IS RELATIVELY
LOW...COULD NOT IGNORE THE FOG SIGNAL IN THE LATEST SREF AND HRRR
MODEL RUNS FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND
INCLUDED A PATCHY FOG MENTION ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWING THE REGION REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...SET UP BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE ERN
CONUS /DRIVEN BY LOW PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTH OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY
AREA/ AND BROAD RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. EXPECTING E/SERLY WINDS TO
BE IN PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER...ENDING UP CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER NRN IA BY 12Z
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE REGARD PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES /MAINLY WITH THE
NAM/ WITH HOW MUCH/IF ANY PRECIPITATION THERE IS AFFECTING WRN/NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR -FZDZ. ANY
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ARE
SUBTLE...THOUGH MODELS DO AGREE SHOWING A 100+KT UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME INCREASED /NOT OVERLY STRONG/ WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A 30-ISH KT
LLJ FRIDAY NIGHT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE EXTENDING NORTH ROUGHLY
ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER A THICK ENOUGH LAYER
IS SATURATED TO KEEP ANY PRECIP AS SNOW...VS -FZDZ DUE TO
DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. CANT TOTALLY RULE EITHER OUT...SO WILL
CONTINUE THE MENTION OF BOTH.

THROUGH SAT/SAT NIGHT...ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIP REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE NRN CWA...THOUGH SOME MODELS SUGGEST EVERYTHING STAYS TO THE
NORTH OF OUR CWA. 20 POPS GOOD TO COVER IT FOR NOW. SATURDAY STILL
FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THOUGH
THANKFULLY THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE EAST OF
THE CWA. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL TURN MORE SRLY...AND MAY BE
GUSTY AT TIMES AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL WITH SAT FORECAST
HIGHS...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHEAST TO LOWER 30S IN
THE SW.

KEPT THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY DRY...THOUGH THERE LOOKS TO BE AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING PRETTY CLOSE TO THE NRN FRINGE OF THE CWA.
THE 12Z NAM WAS AN OUTLIER WITH ITS HEAVIER PRECIP ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE CWA AND WAS DISCOUNTED. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE COLDER AIR MAKING A GOOD PUSH EAST AND MODERATING TEMPS
ALOFT BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...WITH SFC WINDS ALSO TURNING MORE
WRLY. DO HAVE A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS FOR SUNDAY INTO THE LOWER/MID
40S FOR MOST.

LOOKING AHEAD TO MON-THURS...OUTSIDE OF A QUICK PASSING SHOT OF SOME
PRECIP ACROSS SRN AREAS SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...THE FORECAST IS DRY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE WRN CONUS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH THAT RIDGING ONTO THE PLAINS LATE WED INTO
THURS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT STILL EXPECTED...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST MID-WEEK. SOME 60S EXPECTED FOR SWRN
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO LIFT TO
MVFR LEVELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ONLY TO DROP BACK DOWN TO IFR
LEVELS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE MODELS ONCE AGAIN ARE
INDICATING WE COULD SEE SOME LOWERED VSBYS...OPTED TO ONLY INCLUDE
MVFR VSBYS FOR THE TIME BEING AS CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK ANY MORE
FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT THAN THEY DID THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT AND BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION...GENERALLY REMAINING 12KTS OF LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI


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