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000
FXUS63 KGID 252118
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
318 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...THIS PROLONGED STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH THAT BEGAN JAN
14TH CONTS AND WILL PEAK TOMORROW AND POSSIBLY TUE WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPS WE/VE SEEN SINCE LATE NOV...

ALOFT: A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WRN USA RIDGE / ERN USA TROF WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THRU TOMORROW WITH SOME SLIGHT EASTWARD
PROGRESSION...DUE TO AN UPSTREAM TROF OVER THE E PAC. THIS WILL
KEEP THE TRACK OF CLIPPERS E OF THE FCST AREA.

SURFACE: LAST NIGHT/S CLIPPER WAS OVER THE OH VALLEY AND MOVING
AWAY. HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THE NEXT CLIPPER WAS ALREADY DIVING SE ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES WITH WARM FRONTOGENESIS UNDERWAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU TONIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR A SPECTACULAR MON.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: THERE IS STILL SUBSTANTIAL STRATOCU
WITHIN THE CYCLONIC COLD POOL WHICH IS PRIMARILY ALONG AND E OF
HWY 183. SO EXPECT M/CLOUDY SKIES TO CONT THERE WITH A GRADUAL
TREND TOWARD DECREASING CLOUDS.

TONIGHT: ANY LEFTOVER STRATOCU E OF HWY 281 AT SUNSET WILL GET
SHOVED E BY WAA...LEAVING VARIABLE MID-HIGH CLOUDS. WHILE THERE
COULD BE A PERIOD OF M/CLOUDY SKIES...OVERALL IT SHOULD AVERAGE NO
WORSE THAN P/CLOUDY.

ACCURATELY FCSTG HOURLY TEMPS AND LOWS WAS A STRUGGLE AND
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. MOS IS SURPRISINGLY MILD /30S/. LOWS
PROBABLY OCCUR PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT/CALM AS THE
LOW-LVL RIDGE AXIS PASSES. THEN WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SW.

GUT SAYS WE MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH WITH TEMP DROP THIS EVENING.

MON: FANTASTIC WARMTH BUT BREEZY WHICH WILL LESSEN THE ENJOYMENT.
WITH FULL SUN...USED A BLEND OF THE WARMEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
WHICH OFFERS 62-72F AND PUTS MID 60S INTO THE TRI-CITIES.

NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER STILL A THREAT S AND W OF THE TRI-
CITIES FOR A COUPLE HRS IN THE AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

CONTINUING TO BE MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.

NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE CONSISTENT AND AGREEABLE
WITH THE UPCOMING SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM. WE WILL
SPEND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WATCHING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
MOVE INTO OUR AREA...BRINGING MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH...MUCH OF THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
ADVERTISED AT 850 MB WILL BE UNTAPPED AS WE WILL NOT HAVE VERY
DEEP MIXING...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL WHEN SURFACE WINDS ARE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. 850 MB TEMPERATURES COULD BE PUSHING 16C IN OUR
WEST ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF...AND A BIT COOLER WITH THE GFS.
BECAUSE OF THE STUNTED MIXING...WE MAY ACTUALLY BE A TOUCH COOLER
THAN MONDAY...BUT LIGHTER WIND WILL PROBABLY MAKE THIS DAY FEEL
THE BEST AS HIGHS SHOULD STILL TOP OUT IN THE 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...AND PERHAPS SOME 70S IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES EAST OF THE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY...WITH
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL TAKE  LITTLE WHILE FOR THE COLDER AIR TO ESTABLISH ITSELF...
SO MANY LOCATIONS COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S AGAIN...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL NOT FEEL AS NICE AS TUESDAY WITH THE INCREASING WIND SPEEDS.
LOCATION IN OUR EAST WILL HANG ONTO LIGHTER WINDS LONGER FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE AIR LOOKS REALLY DRY IN LOWER AND MID-LEVELS WITH
THIS TROUGH/FRONT...AND CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE NO
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR SPRINKLES/FLURRIES TO OCCUR WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...IT LOOKS COOLER AS THE WESTERN
RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF AND WE FALL WITHIN NORTHWEST
FLOW...YET WE WILL MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL...AND IN FACT WE MAY VERY
WELL CONTINUE OUR OVER 2 WEEK CONSECUTIVE STRING OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS NO ARCTIC INTRUSIONS ARE ON OUR HORIZON IN THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. I ACTUALLY BUMPED UP HIGHS A BIT FOR SATURDAY
INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND REDUCED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EVEN FURTHER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST. THE TRI-CITIES
MAY VERY WELL NOT HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND I
RELEGATED MOST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE
THERE MAY BE MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MON AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: MVFR WILL BECOME VFR IN THE 21Z-23Z TIME FRAME. NW
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THRU 21Z AND THEN SUBSIDE. CONFIDENCE:
HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR WITH MULTI-LAYERED CIGS AT OR ABOVE 10K FT. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE EVENING AND THEN ORGANIZE FROM
THE SW GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

SUN THRU 18Z: VFR SW WINDS INCREASING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NW
14Z-16Z...GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB