Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 311048
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
548 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING TIMING AND CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES ADVANCES EAST AS A SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WE ALSO COULD EASILY
GET CAPES OF OVER 2000 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD REALLY START BLOWING UP
AROUND MID-AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
IN THE RANGE OF 50 TO 50 KTS...SEVERE WEATHER IS ALMOST CERTAIN IN
THE AREA. THE MORE SUN WE GET EARLY ON...THE MORE SEVERE WEATHER WE
WILL WIND UP WITH. THIS IS A SITUATION MORE TYPICAL OF JUNE...RATHER
THAN THE DAY BEFORE THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER...AS VERY LARGE HAIL
AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS ARE PROBABLE SOMEWHERE IN OUR AREA AS THIS
COLD FRONT RAKES EAST. WE CAN ANTICIPATE DISCRETE CELLS DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY MERGING INTO A LINEAR SQUALL LINE.

THE WEAK MORNING CONVECTION THIS MORNING CONCENTRATED MORE IN OUR
SOUTH SHOULD EVENTUALLY WANE AND CONTINUE MOVING EAST.

I LIKE THE NAM FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WE SHOULD REALLY HEAT
UP RATHER WELL WITH COMPRESSIONAL WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WOULD DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AS WELL. WENT
WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS WITH PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...SHOWING THE REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD TROUGHING
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS CANADA. EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW THE
INCREASED LIFT THE MAIN DISTURBANCE HAVING SHIFTED JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE CWA...AND KEPT THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION FREE. AT THE
SURFACE...THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE PUSHED
THROUGH THE CWA...WITH NRLY WINDS USHERED IN BEHIND.  THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS...NOT LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE UPPER
LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE...WILL BE SEEING HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE W/NW...BRINGING DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS. A COOLER AIRMASS
ACCOMPANYING THIS HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE FOR A PRETTY
NICE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY...WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH.

CONTINUING THE LOW POPS IN PLACE FOR MONDAY NIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS PRETTY LOW. NOT ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT...BUT A FEW CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
CWA AS ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. AT THIS
POINT...SHOULD ANYTHING DEVELOP IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK...TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE...AND THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WHICH IS LOOKING TO BE ZONAL ACROSS A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE CONUS ESP TUES AND WED...AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE ENTIRE SRN THIRD OF THE CONUS. NOT
EXPECTING TO SEE ANY NOTABLE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE DRY FORECAST IS LOWER DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS...BUT SOME ARE
SHOWING A WEAK DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY CLIPPING THE SERN THIRD OR SO
OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...BUT OTHERS ARE DRY. AT THIS POINT AM KEEPING
THE DRY FORECAST GOING UNLESS THE REST OF THE MODELS TREND TOWARD
THE WETTER SOLUTION. AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AS A WRN CONUS
TROUGH STARTS TO DIG A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
GO...EXPECTING HIGHS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER/MID
90S BY WEDNESDAY.

THAT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION LOOKS TO BRING BETTER POTENTIAL FOR DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT
THE CWA...AND MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY. KEPT POPS JUST IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE AT
THIS POINT...STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT DETAILS AS MODELS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. A SFC COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THESE CHANCES
MAY BRING A COOL DOWN FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN BUT SHOULD
ALLEVIATE ONCE THE AXIS OF A LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES EAST THIS MORNING.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT A THUNDERSHOWER EARLY THIS MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET...BUT THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH
TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH...POTENTIALLY FROM AFTERNOON
WELL INTO THE NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z TO CONVEY THIS
CONFIDENCE. LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN


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