Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

000
FXUS63 KGID 282022
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
322 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...THE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL PATTERN FOR THE LAST HALF OF OCT
HAS DEPARTED BUT WE ARE NOW IN A DRY REGIME WITH THE ONLY MODEST
POTENTIAL FOR HIT-OR-MISS SHWRS LATE SUN OR POSSIBLY MON...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS...WITH RIDGING OVER THE WEST AND EAST. ENHANCED
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA
MAXES OUT AT AROUND 70KTS NEAR 24000FT AGL PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA
FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...AS WELL AS A CLOSED
CIRCULATION OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ENHANCED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA...BUT UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY MEAGER OVER OUR AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND AS A RESULT...THE BOUNDARY- LAYER WIND
FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALLOWING FOR
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...LIKELY
POSITIONING ITSELF OVER OUR AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE
RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD
ACROSS OUR AREA SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BEFORE
BECOMING ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND A LACK
IN CLOUD COVER THUS RESULTING IN MAXIMIZED RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SHOULD PROMOTE A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS...RANGING FROM THE MID-20S ACROSS OUR NORTH TO THE
LOWER 30S ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. FULL
DIABATIC HEATING...ALONG WITH RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR A WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

PATTERN: BASED ON MODEL AND ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT...PREDICTABILITY
APPEARS HIGH THAT THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THRU THE
FCST PERIOD AND POSSIBLY THRU FRI NOV 7TH. THE PROBLEM WITH THIS
IS NO PERSISTENT ERN USA RIDGE/WRN USA TROF WHICH WOULD FUNNEL
GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. SO THE PARADE OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS WILL
HAVE LITTLE OR NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

SO DONT EXPECT ANY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL HERE THRU NEXT TUE AND
MOST LIKELY THRU THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF NOV AS WELL IF WE ARE
READING THE MODELS CORRECTLY. WE ARE NOW 6 DAYS INTO THIS BONE DRY
PATTERN.

THERE IS MODEST RAIN POTENTIAL SUN. BUT DONT COUNT ON IT TO BE
MUCH IF IT OCCURS AT ALL.

OVERALL FCST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THRU NEXT TUE.

ALOFT: NO MAJOR CHANGE IN THE FCST REASONING FROM YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...WE ARE NOW STARTING TO SEE THE FULL IMPACTS WHAT WILL
BE A MAJOR DUMP OF COLD AIR INTO THE CNTRL/ERN USA LATE THIS
WEEK...AS BIG TIME AMPLIFICATION OCCURS. A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING
OVER WRN USA WED NIGHT. IT WILL ADVANCE E ONTO THE PLAINS SAT AS
THE E PACIFIC TROF MOVES ONSHORE. SW FLOW DEVELOPS HERE SUN-MON
WITH TROF PASSAGE TUE.

SURFACE: A WEAK CLIPPER WILL SLIDE THRU WED NIGHT. ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRES /+2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SE FROM THE PRAIRIES THU AND ACROSS THE ERN
USA FRI-MON. THE NEXT PACIFIC COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE THU
NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS STILL SCHEDULED TO MOVE THRU HERE SUN
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES MON-TUE. THE TIMING OF THE SUN FROPA MAY
NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK GIVEN THE AMPLIFICATION IN THE FLOW.


THE DAILY DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT: CLEAR AND CHILLY.

COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE WED NIGHT.

THU: SUNNY AND BREEZY IN THE COOL SECTOR BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. COLD AIR ADVECTION...BUT NO THERE SHOULD BE NO NOTICEABLE
DIFFERENCE IN TEMPS FROM WED. MAYBE 1-2F COOLER.

THU NIGHT: LOW TEMPS NOT EASY IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SERIOUS COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS
FROPA.

FRI: WOW WHAT AN INCREDIBLE CHANGE FROM 24 HRS AGO. IF YOU READ
THIS PRODUCT YESTERDAY...WE NOTED THAT THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M
TEMPS WAS COLDER...RANGING FROM 48F AT COLUMBUS TO 55 AT
PLAINVILLE KS.

HERE IS HOW THE MEX MOS HIGH TEMPS HAVE CHANGED OVER THE LAST 48
HRS AT GRI AND NOTE THE CHANGE JUST IN THE LAST 24 HRS...

FROM 12Z/26: 57
FROM 00Z/27: 55
FROM 12Z/27: 52
FROM 00Z/28: 49
FROM 12Z/28: 42

THIS IS REMARKABLE GIVEN THAT MEX GUIDANCE USUALLY RESPONDS
SLOWER THAN RAW MODEL 2M TEMPS. TEMPS WERE LOWERED 3-4F FROM THE
PREVIOUS FCST AND BELIEVE THERE MAY ROOM TO LOWER FURTHER. SO WE
ARE NOW FCSTG 46 AT COLUMBUS TO 54F AT PLAINVILLE WITH 47-48F FOR
THE TRI- CITIES. SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY.

KEEP IN MIND THAT MOST MODEL 2M TEMPS HAVE 41-44F FOR THE TRI-
CITIES.

DO WE HAVE A CLOUD PROBLEM? NAM CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST LOW
CLOUDS. A LACK OF MODEL CONSENSUS PREVENTED ME FROM HITTING IT
STRONGER IN THE FCST.

SAT: WE WILL HAVE A WIND PROBLEM. SHORTENING WAVELENGTHS ALOFT
MEANS STRONGER SFC PRESSURES AND A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. 1035 MB
HIGH PRES IS STRONGER THAN INDICATED 24 HRS AGO AND MODELS ARE
DECIDEDLY DEEPER AT 500 MB AS WELL /3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL WITH THE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE E COAST/.

WINDS WERE INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY ABOVE GUIDANCE IN COORDINATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

AN INTERNAL STUDY OF WIND EVENTS SHOWS THE AVERAGE PRES
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BFF-OMA IS 10-15 MB. THE GFS/EC ARE BOTH
OFFERING AROUND A 20 MB DIFFERENCE. WIND GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH LOOK
PROBABLE.

PLEASE REMEMBER AS OF NOV 1ST WE NO LONGER ISSUE WIND ADVISORIES.

SUN: LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER WY WITH THE LOW CROSSING THE DAKOTAS.
THE 12Z EC IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS DEWPOINTS. SO IT IS NOT
QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS 24 HRS AGO. STAYED THE COURSE THOUGH AND KEPT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER PRIMARILY SUN NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS
HAVE BACKED OFF FOR SUN AFTERNOON AND I AM NOT ENTIRELY
COMFORTABLE WITH THAT...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF SHWRS IS LOW WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT. SO THERE IS TIME FOR ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED.

WITH THE PATTERN BECOMING AS AMPLIFIED AS IT WILL BE...A SLOWER
SOLUTION IS REASONABLE...IE BEST CHANCE OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS 6PM SUN-6AM MON.

SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT BUMP IN TEMPS IN THE SMALL WARM SECTOR.

MON: TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL. ANY MORE DELAY WITH THE AMPLIFICATION
AND WE MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS FOR LEFTOVER SHWRS WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDER. GUIDANCE DOES NOW HAVE POPS IN THE FCST E OF HWY 281.

TUE: A WEAK CLIPPER COULD BE RACING E ACROSS CANADA PUTTING THE
CNTRL PLAINS IN NICE DOWNSLOPE REGIME.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE IT`S BACK TO MORE NW FLOW
CONTINUING OUR THINKING OF A LACK OF RAIN.

A QUICK CHECK OF THE CPC 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS CONFIRMS OUR
THINKING. ODDS FAVOR A DRIER THAN NORMAL REGIME THRU NOV 11TH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WED AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND THE VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. THE SURFACE
WIND WILL START THE TAF PERIOD FROM THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND
11KTS...BUT BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...BRYANT



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.