Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 180550
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1250 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.  A
COOLER AIRMASS WAS SETTLING ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION.  THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE
ACROSS EASTERN NEB/KS TONIGHT AND IN THE COOL...DRY AIRMASS AND GOOD
RADIATING CONDITIONS WE ARE LOOKING FOR CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 30S.  A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
NORTHERN NEBRASKA ON SATURDAY WITH NO IMPACT FOR OUR AREA.  SATURDAY
WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT
EAST AND RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS/WARMER AIR MOVES IN.  IN
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS...HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL
AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S BEFORE EVEN WARMER AIR MOVES IN BY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH GENERALLY NICE FALL WEATHER
EXPECTED LOCALLY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE TO CLIP THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
STEERING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WITH
LITTLE NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE ASSOCIATED AIRMASS...THIS FRONT SHOULD
HAVE A MINIMAL EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES TO START THE NEW WEEK.

OVERALL...EXPECT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE
LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS IT
AMPLIFIES AND SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ONSHORE ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
IS FORECAST TO CHIP AWAY AT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY ALLOW AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT TO CROSS THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BOTH THE EC AND GFS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AND CONTINUED
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MAINLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. STILL SOME QUESTION AS WHETHER OR NOT
WE WILL SEE ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT AS INSTABILITY REMAINS
MEAGER...SO CONTINUED TO OPT OUT OF MENTIONING IT IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A SURFACE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING RESULTING IN CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THE
WIND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
HIGH SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...WESELY


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