Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGID 180914
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
414 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A RIDGE
IS NOTED OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE...AND ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS
EXISTS OVER THE FAR WESTERN CONUS. ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET
ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA...AND THEN SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. DESPITE THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET
AXIS TRYING TO WORK INTO OUR AREA...UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER
OUR AREA REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK ONLY MAXING OUT AT AROUND 60KTS NEAR
29000FT AGL PER 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE EXTENDING
FROM EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS...NORTH INTO
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AHEAD OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AXIS. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA REMAINS FAIRLY MEAGER HOWEVER.
AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND A TROUGH OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE
IS NOTED EXTENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF
EASTERN COLORADO. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR
AREA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE AXIS...CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
RANGE...WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...POSITIONING
ITSELF OVER THE PLAINS BY 00Z SATURDAY...AND MORE INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH OF
LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN...WITH A CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE RESULTANT LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PRESENT DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR
AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND SUCH AS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL
HELP PROMOTE A STRENGTHENING LOWER TROPOSPHERIC PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY...WITH MET/NAM AND MAV/GFS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING A SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND OF 18-24KTS...ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTS OF 25-30KTS...WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WIND EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION THE STIFF WIND ACROSS OUR WEST
IN THE HWO.

SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND RESULTANT WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD PROMOTE A WARMER DAY TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO
THURSDAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE 70S
CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA. CONTINUED
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALSO PROMOTE A WARMER
NIGHT TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SATURDAY
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PERIODIC CLOUDS NEAR 15000FT AGL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID-MORNING FRIDAY...WITH CLEAR SKIES OTHERWISE EXPECTED. THE
SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THE TAF
PERIOD...INTENSIFYING TO AROUND 21KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 29KTS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A ~30KT JET STREAK JUST ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE GRI AROUND SUNRISE
FRIDAY...BUT ANY RESULTANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO WEAK FOR INTRODUCTION INTO THE TAF. A GREATER CHANCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT GRI WILL OCCUR JUST BEYOND
CURRENT TAF PERIOD. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED AT GRI
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...BRYANT



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.