Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 261817
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
117 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SET UP
BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
PUSHING EAST OF THE PLAINS. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE HAVE GRADUALLY PUSHED SE OF THE CWA...LEAVING
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS
THE PRIMARY FEATURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SWRN NEB/NWRN KS.
NWRLY WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY IN
THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE. WITH THE LACK OF CLOUDS AND LIGHTER
WINDS...TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF INTO THE 20S.

LOOKING AT THE DAYTIME AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY...THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. OVERALL...DID
NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO SHOW ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA/NRN ROCKIES AND THROUGH
THE REGIONS. ALONG WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A 100+KT UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. KEPT
TIMING OF POPS SIMILAR...WHICH CONTINUES TO HAVE SUPPORT FROM MANY
MODELS...LEAVING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY DRY. NEAR MIDDAY AND
THEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE BETTER FORCING WILL SHIFT
INTO THE AREA...AND THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE NERN HALF
OF THE CWA. WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S/50S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHEN THIS PRECIP IS MOVING THROUGH...KEPT AS
LIQUID...AND WITH MODELS ALSO SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STEEPER LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LOOKS TO BE MORE
SHOWER-LIKE IN NATURE. ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF THE CWA..CONTINUE
THE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS OR SPRINKLES. LOW POPS LINGER INTO
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENING...WITH MODELS REMAINING IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THAT TIMING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW
THINGS EVOLVE LATER TODAY...IF IT APPEARS THINGS ARE GOING TO
LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVENING...MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING AT
LEAST A MIX OF RA/SN AS TEMPS START FALLING. THE REST OF THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS REMAIN DRY.

ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY...DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS FAR SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE HWO...AS TEMPS LOOK
TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S. SHOULD FALL SHORT OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA...AS THE TEMP/DPT COMBO IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN
RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20 PERCENT RANGE...WITH THE
POTENTIAL STILL IN PLACE TO SEE WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

WE BEGIN FRIDAY WITH A PROMINENT AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...OHIO VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY. THERE COULD BE A SHOT AT
SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS A JET
STREAK MOVES BY...WITH AGREEMENT AMONG NUMEROUS NUMERICAL MODELS
THAT LIGHT QPF IS QUITE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THE WEST/NORTH CWA.
THERE COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE MORNING BEFORE IT
GETS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID...WITH ANYTHING MEASURABLE MORE
CONFINED IN THE FAR WEST/NORTH. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. I HELD ONTO SLIGHT
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FAR EAST INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE THE
JET STREAK COMPLETELY DEPARTS. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...SO AGAIN...NOT LOOKING FOR BIG TIME QPF HERE.

CONFIDENCE IS QUITE HIGH WITH OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE IN THE WEST
WILL DAMPEN AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND...TRANSITIONING INTO A LOWER AMPLITUDE AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN MILD AS OUR WEATHER
WILL BE COMING FROM THE DIRECTION OF THE PACIFIC...AND AS THE
AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS DRY WITH NOT MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
TAPPING INTO MUCH MOISTURE...WE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE CHANCE OF MUCH
PRECIPITATION. KEEP IN MIND THAT WITHIN PROGRESSIVE FLOW THERE MAY
BE A TIME OR TWO OF LOW PRECIPITATION SITUATIONS WHEN LOW-
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS SLIDE THROUGH QUICKLY...BUT THAT WOULD BE
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN AT THIS JUNCTURE. FOR NOW...NUMERICAL
MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE IN THE SUNDAY TIME
FRAME...AND POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. I WENT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES FOR SUNDAY...AND SUNDAY COULD ALSO BE OUR
PRIMARY DAY TO LOOK OUT FOR SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AS WIND KICKS
UP BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH.

A CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS
BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERAL DAYS...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...AND THIS WILL BE ANOTHER THING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A POTENTIAL TROUGH SWEEPS
THROUGH WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...BUT THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PAST
SUNDAY LOOKS QUITE DRY AS WELL.

WITH JUST ENOUGH MUCAPE...WE DO HAVE A SHOT AT SOME THUNDERSTORMS
IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER WAVE COMING
THROUGH...AND CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR NEARBY SHOWERS
AROUND KGRI AND KEAR THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD BASES ARE RATHER HIGH
AND EXPECT VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH WE MAY APPROACH
MVFR CEILINGS FOR A TIME NEAR SUNSET. THE WIND WILL BE RATHER
VARIABLE WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH A WESTERLY
COMPONENT PRIOR TO THE LOW TRACKING THROUGH AND THEN A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND BEHIND THE LOW BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
THE WIND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN BACK OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...WESELY



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