Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 041724
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1224 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FOR THE MOST PART FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY
FOR JULY 4TH...WITH A CHC FOR TSTMS RETURNING BY LATE AFTN/TONIGHT.

THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE HAS
DEAMPLIFIED WITH AN UPPER WAVE AND THE MAIN WESTERLIES IN THE
WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED IN CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA...AND TEMPERATURES WERE
RELATIVELY COOL IN THE DRIER AIRMASS WITH READINGS AVERAGING IN THE
60S.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AND LOW PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO DEEPEN OVER THE ROCKIES WITH RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS SETTING UP BY MID MORNING. WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
THIS AFTN ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 15 AND 20KTS AND WHILE WINDS WILL NOT
BE OVERLY STRONG TODAY...THERE WILL BE A STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZE.
HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST REGION AND H85 TEMPS INCREASE AROUND 3C COMPARED TO FRIDAY
AND GENERALLY LOOKING FOR TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90F E/W.

REGARDING CHCS FOR PRECIPITATION...A FEW OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR
NORTHWEST MAY ATTEMPT TO REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTN. SO
FAR THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT WITH THE WAA
AND SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION...CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO AND
WILL KEEP A LOW POP MENTION IN. THIS BEING SAID...BETTER CHCS FOR
DEVELOPMENT FAVOR THE HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY...WITH CHCS
SPREADING EAST INTO OUR CWA TONIGHT AS THE LLVL JET STRENGTHENS TO
NEAR 40KTS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN PRESENCE OF
GOOD SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THEN SMALLER CHANCES OFF AND ON LATER IN THE
WEEK.

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE STARTING AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING...A BIT OF
A MESSY PATTERN WITH RIDGING OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. FURTHER SOUTH IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE U.S. WITH RIDGING IN THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE PACIFIC OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM
NORTHEAST NDAK TO EASTERN COLORADO. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD CLIMB A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
UPPER 80S NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH. GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER
THAN THAT AND COULD SEE THAT HAPPEN WITH SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...IT
LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL HAVE A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO THEM RATHER THAN
SOUTHWEST SO WILL KEEP TEMPS WHERE THEY WERE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE
AXIS SHOULD SWING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DRAG THE SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND MOST ARE KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES TO OUR NORTHWEST UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW THIS THINKING STARTING OUT WITH
LOWER POPS AND THEN RAMPING THEM UP FROM NW TO SE OVER THE CWA INTO
MONDAY MORNING.  MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR COLD FRONT TO CLEAR THE CWA ON
MONDAY SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL FAIRLY HIGH MONDAY FROM 12-18Z
WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. AS FAR AS SEVERE STORMS ARE
CONCERNED WITH THIS SYSTEM...LATEST SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS MUCH OF
SDAK ALONG WITH NORTHERN NEB IN A SLIGHT RISK WHICH INCLUDES THE NW
PART OF OUR CWA. SEVERAL MODELS HAVE BEST DEEP LAYER 0-6 KM SHEAR OF
40-50 KT IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THIS COMPARED TO 20-30 KT IN
NORTHERN KS. THEY ALSO HAVE HIGHEST CAPE NORTHWEST OF US AT 06Z IN
THE REGION OF THE COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA JUST HIGH ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO GIVE US AT
LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT.

AFTER THAT..IT SHOULD QUIET DOWN FOR A DAY OR TWO WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL MID
WEEK AND MINOR DISTURBANCES WILL GIVE US OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR
TSTMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. GFS ALSO HINTING AT A RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD WARM
THINGS UP SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THAT PANS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. LEFT VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE TAF...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AT OR NEAR THE TAF SITE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAF.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...SALTZMAN



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