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000
FXUS63 KGID 042147
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
347 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
IN  PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES
EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...ONE MOVING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND
ANOTHER SLIDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS COMING IN FROM THE WEST HAVE BROUGHT PARTLY TO AT TIMES
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY...BUT THERE HAVE BEEN PERIODS WHERE SOME
LOCATIONS SAW SOME DECENT SUN. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER CENTRAL/ERN COLORADO..WITH A TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING OUT TO THE EAST ACROSS NRN NEB. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN S/SERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH HAVE OCCASIONALLY
GUSTED INTO THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
HAVE EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS...AND HAD THE AREA BEEN ABLE TO SEE
FULL SUNSHINE AND TAP INTO THE WARMER AIR ALOFT...WE WOULD HAVE
BEEN WARMER. STILL A WELCOME BUMP UP IN TEMPERATURES...WITH 3PM
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 40S EAST TO MID 50S IN THE SW.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD LIES WITH LATER THIS
EVENING...OVERNIGHT...AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.  THAT
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST...EVENTUALLY CROSSING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.  LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG
THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND STILL SHOWING THINGS STAYING
DRY UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME SUGGESTING CLOSER TO 09Z.
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE WITH THE MAIN AREA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80...AND STILL LOOKING TO IMPACT THE SWRN PORTIONS OF THE
INITIALLY /THIS IS ALSO REMAINS THE AREA WITH THE BEST
CHANCES/...BUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE SPREADS NORTHEAST PERHAPS
TO NEAR HIGHWAY 81. DID BUMP UP POPS...MAINLY ACROSS NC KS AND
NEAR 12Z THROUGH 18Z. STILL LOOKING AT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
STAYING LESS THAN AN INCH. ANOTHER CHANGE MADE WAS TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF SLEET WITH THE SNOW...AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WHERE A NOSE OF TEMPS ARND
850MB ARE ABOVE ZERO /ADMIT ITS BARELY ABOVE/. FEELING IS THAT
PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW...BUT CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AT
LEAST A BRIEF SHOT OF SOME SLEET.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE CWA THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...USHERING A SWITCH TO N/NE WINDS /WHICH ACTUALLY
TAKES PLACE BEFORE THE PRECIP CHANCES MOVE IN/...AND EVENTUALLY A
PUSH OF COLDER AIR. IT IS NOT A STRONG FRONT...AND WINDS BEHIND IT
AND WITH ANY SNOW LOOK TO TOP OUT ARND 15 MPH. HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW...WINDS REMAIN NRLY THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY BUT DIMINISH IN SPEED. TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO SLIDE THROUGH...BRINGING MORE A E TO
SE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. EVEN THOUGH FORECAST TEMPS TOMORROW ARE
NOT AS NICE AS TODAY...STILL BETTER THAN THE PAST WEEKEND...AND
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S...WITH
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SKY COVER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MID TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE WILL BE POSITIONED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
ANOTHER MID TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. ANY OMEGA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST MID TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND AS A
RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER...INCREASING OMEGA SHOULD BE OBSERVED
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AS THE SECOND MID TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING OMEGA SHOULD THEN
BE NOTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE
MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA...WITH DECREASING OMEGA EXPECTED HEADING
INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL
GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN ALL SUGGEST MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE REALIZED ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THEN BEING REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN ALL THIS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH 20-30%
POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY 20-40%
POPS ACROSS MOST ALL OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY ACROSS OUR EXTREME
SOUTHEAST BUT WITH THE MID TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE DEPARTING THE
AREA TO THE EAST...OPTED TO GO NO HIGHER THAN A ~20% POP ACROSS
OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST FOR SATURDAY. AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA
SHOULD PRESENT DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA...PER THE
NAM...SUGGEST RAIN WILL BE OBSERVED WITH ANY PRECIPITATION REALIZED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGESTING A SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX MORE LIKELY. WENT AHEAD WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. FORECAST PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS THEN SUGGEST SNOW WILL BE REALIZED FRIDAY NIGHT BUT AS
OF NOW...NOTHING MORE THAN ~0.5" OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CWA.

SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND RESULTANT WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD PROMOTE WARM CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE 50S. THE INTRUSION OF A COOLER LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
AIR MASS SHOULD THEN PROMOTE HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S TO
FINISH OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE READINGS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD LIES LATER THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS A DISTURBANCE AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECTING
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS...WITH SERLY WINDS ARND 10 MPH. FOR
TONIGHT...HAVE CIGS OF 1000FT IN PLACE /THOUGH CONFIDENCE ISNT THE
HIGHEST AS GUIDANCE VARIES/...BUT KEPT ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION
OUT AS THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF THE
TERMINAL AREA. WILL BE SOMETHING FOR UPCOMING FORECASTS TO
MONITOR. POTENTIAL FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT COMES AROUND MID MORNING
TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT TIMING IS ALSO NOT HIGH. AS THE
SURFACE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL BECOME
N/NERLY...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH
RANGE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ADO