Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 221126
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
526 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Today`s forecast centers on rounds of wintry weather. Overnight
we saw isentropic lift increase across our region in southwest
flow aloft ahead of a western CONUS upper trough, while a lead
shortwave trough was lifting out the central Rockies. In the first
round of forcing overnight, light precipitation developed, with
snow the dominant precipitation type. Visibilities have not
dropped much with the snow, and have mainly been in the 3 to 5
mile range. To start the day, many areas will have little in the
way of snow or ice on the ground as this first round of wintry
precipitation shifts eastward, but the wintry weather is not
over. The next round of precipitation currently located in
central Kansas is poised to arrive this morning, mainly affecting
our southern zones in north central Kansas to areas generally east
of Highway 281. Observations to our south in Kansas has indicated
a wintry mix of freezing drizzle/freezing rain and snow.

Areas north of the precipitation band this morning may see a
lull/break from precipitation for a time or a period light freezing
drizzle or flurries. By afternoon, a mid level shortwave trough
lifts through western Nebraska, bringing another round of lift and
wintry precipitation primarily across south central Nebraska. In
the end, and has been mentioned for a couple of days, the wintry
precipitation will arrive in rounds or waves today, at varying
locations and varying times. Amounts are complicated given the
wintry mix, as more snow vs freezing precip would lead to higher
snow amounts, and more freezing precip than snow would lead to
lesser snow and higher potential for icing. Overall the expected
snow and ice snow totals have not changed much, with snow amounts
of an inch or two possible from Gothenburg to the Ord/Greeley
areas, with amounts less than an inch expected farther south. Ice
accumulations of several hundredths remain possible, especially
for areas east of Highway 281. A winter weather advisory remains
in effect today for the messy mix of wintry weather conditions.

The wintry weather ends west to east during the evening as the mid
level trough departs. Some model guidance suggest the potential
for fog development, however confidence is not high for this
given our light westerly wind component and will let later shifts
assess this further.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Friday will see a break in the weather ahead of the main western
upper trough which will be edging into the Rockies. Temperatures
will moderate to the 30s for highs which may not feel so bad after
the teens/20s we`ve had the last several days.

Attention then turns to the next winter system for the first part
of the weekend, with the brunt of the storm arriving on Saturday.
Models are consistent in developing a widespread precipitation
event as the upper level low lifts out of Colorado and deepens as
it lifts northeast across Nebraska. Confidence is high for a
winter weather event, but is lower on how far north the freezing
rain line will be. The GFS track is farther south than other
models which would favor more snow, however, the ECWMF and NAM
track the system farther north allowing for mid level drier air to
work north, and the loss in dendritic moisture would lead to
freezing drizzle/rain where surface temperatures are below
freezing. In the end, haven`t deviated from the ensemble blend
with another messy wintry mix of snow and freezing rain. Moisture
is good with this system, with accumulations of both snow and ice
expected.

The weather quiets down Sunday through Tuesday in between systems
with flow aloft transitioning zonal and then southwester ahead of
potent of upper low closing off in southern California by mid
week. Temperatures moderate through Tuesday with highs trending
toward seasonal readings in the 40s, but if we see significant
snow on Saturday, this could have an impact on temps early on. The
pattern trends active again the middle/latter part of next week
as the southwest CONUS upper low begins to lift out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Friday)
Issued at 520 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

A few rounds of wintry mix on tap today. Mostly snow this morning
with a chance for -FZDZSN in the afternoon. Thinking GRI has the
better chances to see -FZDZSN, and EAR may see more snow today.
Winds will generally be around 10mph and shifting from east this
morning to westerly this afternoon. Winds drop off after sunset
and it is looking like some patchy fog may develop this evening
and vis looks to improve after midnight.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for NEZ039-
     040-046-047-060>062-072>077-082>087.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for NEZ041-
     048-049-063-064.

KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fay
LONG TERM...Fay
AVIATION...Beda



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