Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 261519

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1019 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Issued at 1017 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Updated the forecast this morning into the early afternoon to
increase sky cover northeast/east due to stubborn stratus.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Satellite data showing the upper level shortwave disturbance
continuing to slide east across the region early this morning,
taking the showers and thunderstorms along. Cloud cover has
gradually been diminishing as this system pushes out, with much of
the CWA under mostly clear skies. At the surface, the
accompanying cold front has moved through all but the eastern
fringe of the CWA, with west-northwest winds building in behind.
Temperatures are still mild, with 3 AM temps ranging from the
upper 40s to upper 50s.

Through the short term, dry conditions are forecast, with models
in good agreement showing that as this upper level system
continues moving east, northwesterly flow builds in, thanks to
ridging amplifying over the Rockies. A surface high pressure ridge
axis will make its way through the region today, resulting in
diminishing winds. This evening/tonight, winds remain light but
will turn more southerly as that ridge axis moves east of the
area. While plenty of sun is expected today, will have to keep an
eye on the low level stratus off to the northeast of the CWA, as
satellite imagery shows it sinking south. Models show that
northeastern portions may get clipped by these clouds, but also
show it being short-lived. As far as temperatures go, all but far
western portions of our NE counties is expected to be cooler than
yesterday. Forecast highs range from the upper 60s in the
northeast to mid 70s to the southwest. Overnight lows tonight are
forecast to fall into the lower/mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Overview...It will be a warm and dry period dominated by an upper
level ridge and only a few weak shortwaves tracking well north of
our forecast area. High temperatures will range from 5 to 20
degrees above normal with the warmest days being Thursday and
Friday when highs will range from the mid 70s to the lower 80s.
Normal highs are currently around 60. Low temperatures are also
likely to remain warm and despite being late October should be
well above freezing.

Thursday and Friday...These will be the warmest two days of the
extended forecast period with an upper level ridge located over
the plains. The next shortwave will be crossing the rockies by
late Friday. Sunny, warm, and dry weather will persist with highs
in the mid 70s to mid 80s, with the warmest temperatures across
north central Kansas.

Saturday and Sunday...A weak shortwave will track east across the
Dakotas Friday night into Saturday giving us a shot of slightly
cooler air. Any precipitation will remain well north of our
forecast area in closer proximity to the upper system. Highs
will still be in the mid to upper 60s north of I-80 to the mid 70s
over north central Kansas.

Monday (Halloween): This currently appears to be a warm day just
ahead of another northern plains shortwave with afternoon highs in
the 70s. Temperatures during the evening trick or treat window
will likely be falling through the 60s, which would make for a
very comfortable Halloween.

Tuesday...The northern plains shortwave is expected to slide east
across the Dakotas Monday night with slightly cooler air advecting
into the area. Even with the cooler air, highs should still be in
the 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Quiet weather with VFR currently forecast for this TAF period.
Will be monitoring low level stratus to the north-northeast of the
area over the next few hours. Satellite imagery showing this cloud
cover shifting south, but models suggest it shift just east of the
KGRI terminal, so only went with a few mention at this point.
Otherwise, this afternoon into tonight should be mostly clear.
Winds through the daytime hours look to be northwesterly, topping
out around 15 MPH, but a few gusts this afternoon near 20 MPH are
possible. This evening/tonight, winds will turn more
light/variable before switching to the south.




LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...ADP is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.