Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 300516
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1216 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. ENHANCED
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST...AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 45KTS NEAR 23000FT AGL.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SUBTLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
PERTURBATION OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AS WELL AS ENHANCED
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN CONUS AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA
HOWEVER REMAINS FAIRLY MEAGER. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...AND
BOUNDARY-LAYER RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
IS PROMOTING A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THUS
ALLOWING THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION...CURRENTLY
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEASTTHROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LIKELY MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND PERHAPS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID- MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z
FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA AND ALTHOUGH A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CWA IS POSSIBLE...NOTHING IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. AT THE
SURFACE...THE AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST...AWAY
FROM OUR AREA...THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATE TONIGHT
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION. THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY. AN ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THIS LOW...AND THIS
BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD CLEAR OUR AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. SO
ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL START FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...THIS WIND SHOULD BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED
FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAIN THAT WAY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY.

AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR
AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

BOUNDARY-LAYER PRESSURE RISES POST-FROPA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
WILL LIKELY PROMOTE BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SUSTAINED WIND OF 15-20KTS WILL ACCOMPANY
GUSTS CLOSER TO 30KTS. NOTHING TO GET OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT BUT
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AND RESULTANT THERMAL ADVECTION SHOULD PROMOTE A WARMER TONIGHT
WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR
OUR AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTS THE
TRUE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LAG WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...THUS
RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS
BETWEEN NOW AND THE DAY THURSDAY. GIVEN THIS...SIMILAR TEMPERATURE
READINGS...WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY...ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS TO START THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EAST. AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THUS HELPING TO STRENGTHEN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THE STRENGTHENING OF THIS TROUGH...ALONG WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST OF
THE CONUS...SHOULD ALLOW THE RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND CLEAR THE CENTRAL CONUS
SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE MOST PART...AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...WHICH IS WHEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH SUGGEST
THERMAL ADVECTION...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS...MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION TO PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. GIVEN ALL
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-30% POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONTEMPLATED GOING WITH A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL. WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES ALSO
INCREASING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AXIS...THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS BOTH SUGGEST MUCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF
100-200J/KG COULD BE IN EXISTENCE. THAT SAID...THUNDER WAS JUST
REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST LAST NIGHT AND RATHER THAN FLIP-
FLOPPING...WOULD RATHER WAIT ANOTHER FORECAST SHIFT OR TWO BEFORE
INSERTING THUNDER BACK INTO THE FORECAST.

THE INTRUSION OF A MUCH COOLER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL
LIKELY PRESENT CHILLY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DECREASING FORECAST
TEMPERATURE READINGS...WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S TO NEAR 30...AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY
ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S. RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND RESULTANT THERMAL ADVECTION SATURDAY ONWARD
SHOULD THEN PROMOTE A WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S CURRENTLY EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

EXPECT WINDS TO BE MAINLY VARIABLE TONIGHT...BUT WILL TREND TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AFTER A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD AROUND BUT THAT SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
TOWARD MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

WITH THE INCREASED WIND EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...AND THE DRY FUELS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WANTED TO MAKE A QUICK NOTE REGARDING FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL NO LOWER THAN
28% OR 29% GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BEAVER
CITY IN NEBRASKA...TO SMITH CENTER AND OSBORNE IN KANSAS...WITH
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED FARTHER NORTHEAST. THAT
SAID...THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TO ENSURE
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE DOES NOT DROP OFF...OR THAT THE
TEMPERATURE DOES NOT RISE MUCH FARTHER...THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...JCB
FIRE WEATHER...BRYANT



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