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000
FXUS63 KGID 171051
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
551 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDING WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE WEST. EARLY THIS
MORNING...SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED TO THE
WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...LIKELY A FACTOR OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH FORCING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING TO SPARK SOME CONVECTION. HOWEVER WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOWING
SIGNS OF DIMINISHING AND LITTLE INSTABILITY TO KEEP IT GOING AS IT
APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA...DECIDED TO JUST ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGES OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH 8
AM TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY REMNANTS OF THIS CONVECTION AS IT WORKS EAST.
OTHERWISE...HAVE SEEN SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS AROUND LXN AND
ODX EARLY THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO REACH THE
DEWPOINTS AT THESE LOCATIONS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THINK
SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. HRRR AND SREF HAVE BOTH
BACKED OFF ON POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS MORNING...AND
EXPECT ANY FOG THAT DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP TO BE FAIRLY PATCHY AND
SHORT LIVED...AND CORRESPONDINGLY TRIMMED BACK COVERAGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL WORK THEIR WAY IN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
RIDGE TRANSITIONS EASTWARD. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVING OVERHEAD...850MB TEMPS WILL CLIMB A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM
YESTERDAYS VALUES...FURTHER AIDING IN A SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON.
AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT A SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP ON THE LEE SIDE
OF THE ROCKIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THIS SHOULD HELP INCREASE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST ENOUGH TO RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS...GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH IN MOST SPOTS.

FOR TONIGHT...SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND TRANSITION IT EASTWARD AROUND
SUNSET. WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO JUSTIFY
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST...A DECENT CAP IS FORECAST AROUND 800 MB
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING TO JUSTIFY MUCH CONVECTION
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. EVEN SO...WITH 00Z WRF BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE TRANSLATING SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS...FELT
JUSTIFIED ADDING A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE
LOCAL AREA JUST IN CASE A FEW SHOWERS ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES AS THEY TRACK EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF
LONG TERM. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE ARE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION NEARLY EVERYDAY OVER THE LONG TERM...BUT THE CHANCE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE BEST ON SATURDAY AT THE MOMENT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING OVER THE WEST COAST
TODAY AND WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE ON SATURDAY...A LEE LOW WILL FORM AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND A COLD FRONT WILL DRAPE INTO
NEBRASKA WHICH SHOULD HELP TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE AT THE MID-LEVELS...SO THIS WILL NEED
TO ERODE/BREAK BEFORE ANY CONVECTION CAN INITIALIZE. A FEW THINGS
SHOULD HELP TO GET STORMS INITIATED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THOUGH.
FOR ONE...THE ADVECTION OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN THE MID-LEVELS
WILL HELP WEAKEN THIS CAP. SECONDLY...THE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO
SLIDE OVER THE REGION SHOULD SERVE AS A GOOD LIFTING MECHANISM TO
HELP GET CONVECTION STARTED IN THE AFTERNOON. LASTLY...MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 3000-4000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS
FORECAST BY 00Z SUNDAY...SO ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE
ABILITY TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS LATER
INTO THE EVENING...THE FORMATION ON AN MCS IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLY
AND SHOULD POSE A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT EARLY IN THE EVENT...ESPECIALLY THE MORE
ISOLATED/DISCRETE CELLS WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS. ITS ALSO WORTH
NOTING THE NAM...GFS...AND EC ALL SHOW STRONG 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR ON
THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KTS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE
BUT STILL HAD VALUES AROUND 35 KTS. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT COUPLED
WITH STRONG INSTABILITY WOULD SUGGEST SUPERCELLS COULD FORM AND
WITH ANY SUPERCELL...THERE WILL ALSO BE A TORNADO THREAT.

MOVING INTO SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE OVERALL
LIMITED...BUT OUR EASTERN COUNTIES COULD POTENTIALLY SEE THE SEVERE
THREAT CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY...PRIMARILY EAST
OF HIGHWAY 281. NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE POPS ANYWHERE FROM 10 TO 30
PERCENT NEARLY EVERYDAY. THESE POPS ARE ROOTED IN THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST COAST WHICH IS FORECAST TO MEANDER AROUND
THE GREAT PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THE BIGGEST DISADVANTAGE IN THE LONG
TERM IS THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE NEXT
WEEK WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY APPEAR TO BE THE ONE EXCEPTION...WITH TEMPERATURES MORE
LIKELY TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KGRI FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT
THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK COVERING MUCH OF NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
MORNING TO RAPIDLY SCATTER OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS
SHORT WAVE RIDGING TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS...WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ANTICIPATED TO TIGHTEN UP THE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES...SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED WIND GUSTS TO 24KTS AFT
17/18Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SAR
LONG TERM...GUERRERO
AVIATION...SAR