Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 270627
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
127 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 127 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS JUST STARTING TO DEVELOP INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
ZONES (NAMELY FURNAS COUNTY AREA)...THE LATEST MODELS INCLUDING
HIGHER-RES SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY INDICATE THAT IT COULD BE CLOSER
TO SUNRISE BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS MORE
OF THE CWA...AS THE LEADING EDGES OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF CO AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AS EVIDENT
ON THE 310K SURFACE. AS A RESULT...HAVE DELAYED THE HIGHEST 60-70
PERCENT LIKELY POPS UNTIL AFTER 09Z/4AM FOR MOST AREAS...AND
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE IF THINGS DELAY FURTHER.

AS FOR THE ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST COUNTIES THAT CURRENTLY RUNS THROUGH 15Z/10AM
THIS MORNING...NO CHANGES MADE YET...BUT AM STRONGLY LEANING
TOWARD EXTENDING THIS HEADLINE FARTHER OUT IN TIME AS THE REALITY
IS THAT MOST RAIN WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN
THE SUBSEQUENT 24-36 HOURS FOLLOWING THE CURRENT EXPIRATION
TIME...WITH POTENTIALLY NOT MUCH HAPPENING BEFORE THAT TIME. NO
PLANS AT THIS TIME TO EXPAND THE WATCH AREA IN AREA...BUT THAT MAY
BE CONSIDERED ALSO DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS BETWEEN NOW
AND SUNRISE. AS FOR STORM INTENSITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME SUB-SEVERE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE
LIKELY WITH SOME STORMS...FAIRLY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
TALLER/NARROWER CAPE PROFILES WOULD SEEMINGLY MAKE ANY OVERNIGHT
SEVERE STORMS RATHER UNLIKELY.

LAST BUT NOT LEAST...ADDED A GENERIC PATCHY FOG MENTION THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MOST OF THE NEBRASKA CWA GIVEN LACK OF RAIN
THUS FAR IN MOST AREAS TO KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MIXED UP. NOT
EXPECTING DENSE FOG ISSUES AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT EASTERLY
BREEZES SHOULD AT LEAST AVERAGE 5-8 MPH...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
TRENDS.

STAY TUNED FOR MORE DETAILS WITH THE MAIN MORNING DISCUSSION
ISSUED CLOSER TO 430 AM...

UPDATE ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE FORECAST DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ADD THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HEADLINE AT THE BOTTOM WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM CDT
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL CENTER AROUND YET
ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING OR ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HARD PART IS IDENTIFYING WHERE
EXACTLY THESE STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS. THE GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS AND SREF HIGHLIGHT AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM BEAVER
CITY TO GENEVA AND THIS IS WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS GOING.
HOWEVER...WE HAVE SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING A LITTLE SOUTH OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS AND WILL NEED TO WATCH OUT
FOR THAT AGAIN TONIGHT AS WELL. THE SOIL IS SATURATED IN AREAS
WHERE WE HAVE SEEN A NIGHT OR TWO OF HEAVY RAINFALL ALREADY THIS
WEEK AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING AS HEAVY RAIN FALLS ON SATURATED
GROUND. YORK AND HAMILTON COUNTY WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT IF THEY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH IS POSSIBLE.

THE AREA COULD SEE RAIN OFF AND ON RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...WHICH CONTINUES TO
HAVE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE START OF
THE PERIOD SHOWS MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN...WITH THE REGION UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AS BROAD
RIDGING SITS OVER THE SERN CONUS...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
MAKING IT WAY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SET UP OVER ERN COLORADO WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED S/SERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH A WARM FRONT/SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP
ACROSS NW/NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. INCREASED LIFT OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH AXIS ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG AN INCREASED LLJ WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE CWA
/UNLESS MODELS TREND DIFFERENTLY WITH THE LOCATION/.  BEST POPS
REMAIN OVERNIGHT WITH LINGERING POPS INTO THURSDAY...BUT EXPECT
THOSE WILL WANE THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE REST
OF THE DAY ENDING UP DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO FINALLY
SHOW THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH HAS BEEN
KICKING OUT THESE PIECES OF ENERGY...BRINGING US THE RECENT ACTIVE
PATTERN. THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THE MAIN LOW/TROUGH BETWEEN MODELS
IS NOT TOO BAD...IF IT REMAINS SIMILAR OVER THE COMING DAYS...SHOWS
IT STILL JUST OFF TO THE WEST OF THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING...SET UP
OVER ROUGHLY THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND MOVING
TO THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF TO AN END BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL...IN THE HWO. SOME VARIATIONS BETWEEN MODELS BUT
THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR/MOISTURE COMBO REMAINS AND WHILE NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...CERTAINLY CANT RULE AT LEAST A FEW
STORMS OUT.

STILL LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS FOR SAT/SUN...AS THE AREA SITS IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...WITH SOME POTENTIAL
OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING...MAINLY SAT...BEFORE MORE ZONAL FLOW RETURNS
ON SUNDAY. EXPECTING SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY...KEEPING WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING FOR SUNDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS.

PRECIP CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO PART OF
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...AS A DISTURBANCE CENTERED
OVER AND MOVING EAST THROUGH CANADA RESULTS IN BROAD TROUGHING OVER
THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES NOT CALLING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SWINGS EITHER
WAY THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 80S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ANOTHER CHALLENGING 24 HOURS AWAITS FORECAST-WISE...WITH PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY IN NOT ONLY CEILING/VISIBILITY TRENDS...BUT ALSO
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. IN THE MOST BASIC SENSE...THE BIGGEST
CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE IS THAT THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WAS DELAYED SEVERAL HOURS...AND CEILING TRENDS WERE MADE
MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH AT LEAST PATCHY IFR CEILING AND MVFR
VISIBILITY IN LIGHT FOG ALREADY SHOWING THEIR HAND ACROSS THE
AREA OUT OF THE GATE. THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG
THESE LOWER CEILING/VISIBILITY MIGHT LAST INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS...AND AT LEAST FOR NOW HAVE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING FROM 16Z ONWARD. AS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ITS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE
OUT ACTIVITY AT ANY POINT DURING THE PERIOD BEYOND THE FIRST FEW
HOURS...AND THUS HAVE A LONG-FUSE MENTION OF A GENERIC VICINITY
THUNDERSTORM (VCTS). IN THE SHORTER TERM...MAINTAINED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR STEADIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING BUT DELAYED
THIS UNTIL THE 09Z-13Z TIME FRAME. AS FOR SURFACE WINDS...OUTSIDE
OF ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES THEY SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF
AN ISSUE WITH DIRECTION GENERALLY REMAINING SOME COMPONENT OF
EASTERLY AND SPEEDS LARGELY AVERAGING AROUND 10KT OR LESS. IN
CLOSING...STAY TUNED FOR PLENTY OF FINE-TUNING OF VARIOUS
ELEMENTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WORKS ITS WAY OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-062>064-075-076.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



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