Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 072210
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES
COULD AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN/EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH TONIGHT...CERTAINLY THE MAIN STORY FOR MOST FOLKS THROUGH
THESE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP AGAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY
AFTER DECREASING ONLY SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.

FORTUNATELY...THE EXISTING SNOW COVER STILL BLANKETING MOST OF
THE CWA IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO EXTENSIVE BLOWING/DRIFTING GIVEN
SEVERAL RECENT FREEZE/RE-FREEZE CYCLES...BUT CERTAINLY AT LEAST
LIMITED/PATCHY BLOWING RIGHT NEAR GROUND-LEVEL IS LIKELY...SOME OF
WHICH COULD CAUSE LIMITED ISSUES ON ROADWAYS. HOWEVER...ANY
BLOWING SNOW DOES NOT CURRENTLY SEEM WORTHY OF A FORMAL WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. AS FOR THE STRONG WINDS...WILL AGAIN REMIND
FOLKS THAT NWS HASTINGS AND SEVERAL NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST HAVE NOT ISSUED WIND ADVISORIES FOR SUSTAINED
30+/GUST 45+ WINDS FOR OVER ONE YEAR NOW DUE TO THESE TYPE OF
EVENTS BEING CLIMATOLOGICALLY COMMON. HOWEVER...AT LEAST WITHIN
COUNTIES NEAR/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6 IN NEBRASKA...THIS AFTERNOON`S
WIND FITS THE DEFINITION OF WHAT WE USED TO CALL A "HIGH END
ADVISORY"...AND IN FACT A FEW AIRPORT SITES HAVE BRIEFLY TOUCHED
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 40 MPH
(ORD/AURORA/HASTINGS FOR EXAMPLE)...AND HASTINGS EVEN REACHED A
ONE-TIME WARNING GUST OF 58 MPH JUST BEFORE 3 PM. HOWEVER...BECAUSE
ANY FURTHER INSTANCES OF HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH MORE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE...WILL HOLD OFF AN
ISSUING ONE...AND INSTEAD CONTINUE TO HAMMER THE STRONG WIND
WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID).

AS FOR THE BIG-PICTURE SCENE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AS OF
2130Z/330PM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA
CLEARLY INDICATE A POWERFUL BATCH OF NORTHWEST-FLOW ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST...FEATURING VARIOUS MID
LEVEL VORT MAXES. ONE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST IA AND
ANOTHER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A MORE CHANNELED AREA OF
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER JET STREAK BLASTING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS LOCALLY...BETWEEN A STRONG
ROUGHLY 999 MILLIBAR LOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND AN
EXPANSIVE HIGH DOMINATING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
GRADIENT...ALONG WITH WEAK-BUT-STEADY LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION...DEEP MIXING TO 800+ MILLIBARS AND THUS GOOD DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS PROMOTING THE STRONG TO LOCALLY VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN A TOUCH OF
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN/NEAR THE EASTERN CWA...THUS PROMOTING
THE PASSING ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING MAINLY
WITHIN NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL NEB AT THIS TIME. TEMP-
WISE...READINGS ACTUALLY CLIMBED A TOUCH WARMER IN MOST AREAS
THAN EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...AS MOST OF THE CWA AT LEAST
BRIEFLY TOUCHED THE LOW 40S WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF MID-40S IN KS
ZONES.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON:

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: IT WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY-TO-WINDY THROUGH
THE NIGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY SPEEDS WILL EASE DOWN A BIT FROM THE
VALUES CURRENTLY OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE PARENT VIGOROUS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER JET
STREAK DIGGING ALONG ITS BACK SIDE WILL VERY SLOWLY START SLIDING
EAST TONIGHT. EVEN SO...PRIMARILY THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN 1/4 OR
SO OF THE CWA WILL STILL REMAIN IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MAYBE UP TO A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE THAT BEING SAID...THE VAST
MAJORITY OF MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD FOCUS
EAST OF THE CWA WITHIN FAR EASTERN NEB AND IA. AT THE
SURFACE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT MIXING HEIGHT/EFFICIENCY SHOULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT...THUS
ALLOWING SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO AVERAGE MORE IN THE 20-30 MPH
RANGE/GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH. SKY COVER IS A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA AND MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE SOUTHWEST 1/2.
EVEN IN THE CLEAR AREAS...BREEZES SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
VERY FAR AND NUDGED UP LOWS ROUGHLY 3 DEGREES MOST AREAS...AIMING
MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE MID 20S.

MONDAY DAYTIME: ANOTHER WINDY TO VERY WINDY DAY...BUT AT LEAST THE
RISK FOR LEGITIMATE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
EASTERN CWA BY THE LATE-MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO STEADILY RISE FROM WEST-TO-
EAST AS THE DEEP TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUED TO
DEPART WHILE THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE PUSHES EAST
A BIT. WHILE THIS STILL LEAVES THE LOCAL REGION ALONG THE CORRIDOR
OF VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE TROUGH/RIDGE
INTERFACE...FORCING/MOISTURE APPEARS INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY PRECIP
UNLESS A FEW FLURRIES STILL BRUSH THE FAR EASTERN CWA FIRST THING
IN THE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/DEEP MIXING
STARTS TO LET UP SLIGHTLY BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY COULD NEARLY BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH WINDS REALLY
RAMPING UP FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. NUDGED UP
SPEEDS ROUGHLY 5 MPH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MAYBE NOT
ENOUGH...BUT AT LEAST NOW ADVERTISING SOLID 25-35 MPH
SUSTAINED/GUSTS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH IN MOST AREAS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED HOWEVER TO SEE A FEW PLACES AGAIN FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND
WARNING THRESHOLDS. FOR NOW THE WIND POTENTIAL IS AGAIN IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SKY-COVER WISE...EXPECT THE DAY TO
START MAINLY CLOUDY EAST AND MAINLY CLEAR WEST...BUT THEN
GENERALLY AVERAGING PARTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE DEEP MIXING...AGAIN SUSPECT HIGH TEMPS COULD RISE
EFFICIENTLY DESPITE THE COLDER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS MOVING IN ALOFT.
AS A RESULT...NUDGED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL
CERTAINLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN TODAY...NOW HAVE THE NORTHEAST
1/2 OF THE CWA IN THE LOW-MID 30S AND SOUTHEAST HALF MID-UPPER
30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AND THUS KEEP THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN A FAIRLY STAGNANT WEATHER
REGIME. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE A FEW DISTURBANCES THAT COULD
BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

A STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS WHILE A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF. THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AS SUCH TEMPERATURES WILL
FLUCTUATE SLIGHTLY...WARMER SOUTHWEST TO COOLER NORTHEAST AND
NUMEROUS JET STREAKS WILL BE PRESENT THIS WEEK.

AGAIN WITH REGARDS TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION...CERTAINLY NOT SEEING A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH WILL GENERATE A TON OF QPF ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ONE SUCH JET
STREAK IS PROMINENT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE MODELS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP QPF ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SPECIFICALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. ITS HARD TO SAY WHETHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DAYTIME
WILL NEED SLIGHT POPS AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW KEPT MENTION INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SATURATION IN THE LOWER
LEVELS ESPECIALLY UP TO 700 MB...ALTHOUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER IS
SOMEWHAT DRY. THIS COULD END UP BEING A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT
RATHER THAN A LIGHT SNOW EVENT AS WELL...BEARS MONITORING. THE JET
STREAK SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...THE
BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE NOT EQUALLY LINED UP WELL IN THE CROSS
SECTION. THUS...WENT ONLY WITH SLIGHTS FOR NOW AND A LIGHT
DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN
WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST AND COOLER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
DAYS THIS WEEK...WARMER AIR WILL SLOWLY CREEP A BIT FURTHER EAST
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO 40S AND
EVEN 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH IN VFR VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LEAVING CEILING AND WIND AS THE MAIN AVIATION ISSUES.

WINDS: THIS WILL BE A RATHER WINDY PERIOD OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL-STRONGEST SPEEDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR RIGHT AWAY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 25-30KT AND GUSTS
POSSIBLY NEARING 40KT...TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING SHOULD STILL FEATURE
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AVERAGING 20-25KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH
WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
STRONGER YET STRONG WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AROUND 50-55KT...THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WIND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR (LLWS) JUST MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT IT MAY NOT JUSTIFY A
FORMAL TAF MENTION. SOMETHING FOR LATER TAF ISSUANCES TO TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AT THOUGH.

CEILING: ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST
THESE FIRST 6 HOURS...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BECOMES A BIT
MORE QUESTIONABLE (ESPECIALLY AT KGRI). VARIOUS MODELS NOW SUGGEST
THAT AT THE VERY LEAST...A LOW-END VFR CEILING SHOULD MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST AFFECT KGRI
BUT MAY OR MAY NOT REACH AS FAR WEST AS KEAR. THERE ARE ALSO
SUGGESTIONS THAT SOME OF THIS CLOUD DECK COULD LOWER INTO HIGH-END
MVFR TERRITORY...BUT FOR NOW HAVE ONLY "HINTED" AT THIS MVFR
POSSIBILITY WITH A "SCT025" MENTION. AGAIN...SOMETHING THE NEXT
FEW TAF CYCLES WILL NEED TO CLOSELY EXAMINE.

LASTLY...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
ROGUE FLURRY/SNOW SHOWER COULD AFFECT MAINLY KGRI...HAVE OMITTED
ANY PRECIP MENTION AS BETTER CHANCES FOR PASSING SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD FOCUS 50-100+ MILES TO THE EAST.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



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