437
FXUS63 KGID 091720
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1220 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a marginal risk of severe storms mainly this evening
  into tonight with the main threats being large hail and
  damaging winds.

- There is a slight risk of severe storms mainly Thursday
  afternoon into Thursday evening. The main threats with these
  storms will be large hail and damaging winds.

- High temperatures on Thursday will warm up into the upper 80s
  to around 100 degrees. Heat index values will be in the low
  90s to near 104 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 410 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Today and tonight...

A big upper ridge is centered over Arizona with Nebraska and Kansas
under the eastern edge of it. Temperatures across south central and
central Nebraska and north central Kansas are in the upper 60s to
mid 70s. Winds will mostly be out of the south today with
temperatures warming up into the upper 80s to upper 90s. Low
temperatures tonight are expected to be in the mid 60s to low 70s.
Upper level shortwaves will move over/near the area today into
tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and move
across the area as a result of lift from the shortwaves. There is
some uncertainty as to when these storms will impact the area.
Generally think that storms will move into western portions of the
area this evening and move eastward across the area into the
overnight hours. Very high CAPE and mid-level lapse rates as well as
fairly high wind shear will be across the area today so any storm
that develops and moves into the area will have the potential to
become severe. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main
threats.

Thursday and Thursday night...

The previously mentioned upper ridge will be somewhat flattened on
Thursday by an upper trough out of Canada moving over the northern
Rocky Mountains. Upper level shortwaves are expected to move
near/over the area on Thursday. This will allow for more showers and
storms to develop. High CAPE and lapse rates will again be present
on Thursday but wind shear will be lacking with values only up to
around 30 knots according to the NAM12. Severe storms will again be
possible with large hail and damaging wind gusts being the main
threats. The main time frame for severe weather will be from around
mid afternoon into the evening hours. High temperatures on Thursday
will warm up into the upper 80s to around 100 degrees. Heat index
values are expected to range from the low 90s to near 104 degrees.
Low temperatures Thursday night will range from the low 60s to low
70s.

Friday through Saturday night...

An upper level trough will be over south central and central
Nebraska and north central Kansas on Friday. A cold front associated
with this trough will move into the area resulting in high
temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 90s on Friday. Showers and
storms will again be possible (up to around a 50% chance) and some
of these storms especially along and just behind the front may
become strong to marginally severe. The severe threat will be
afternoon into the early evening hours. Low temperatures Friday
night will drop into the mid 50s to mid 60s with a surface high
pressure across the area. The surface high will still impact the
region on Saturday with high temperatures in the upper 70s to mid
80s. Low temperatures Saturday night will be in the upper 50s to mid
60s.

Sunday through Tuesday night...

Temperatures will begin warming up on Sunday with highs in the mid
80s to low 90s with southerly winds. Low temperatures Sunday night
will be in the low to upper 60s. Temperatures on Monday may warm a
degree or two higher than the previous day. Low temperatures Monday
night will be in the low 60s to low 70s. An upper trough will begin
moving over the northern and central Plains on Tuesday and may
result in showers and storms across the area Tuesday into Tuesday
night (15% to near 40% chance). High temperatures on Tuesday are
expected to be in the lower 80s to lower 90s with lows Tuesday night
in the upper 50s to mid/upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

The primary threat will be a line of thunderstorms moving
through central Nebraska this evening. If these storms hold
together, they could produce 50kt+ gusts at EAR and GRI (10-20%
chance). The primary timeframe of concern is 02-06Z. Some spotty
showers/storms could linger into early Thursday morning, the
potential and impacts are too low to warrant a mention in this
TAF.

Other than the thunderstorm potential, VFR conditions are
favored through the period (90% chance).

Winds generally remain out of the south, but may be modified by
outflow from thunderstorms late tonight. Marginal LLWS is also
possible after 06Z tonight.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Mangels