Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 211542
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1042 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1042 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Update sent out about an hour ago to increase wind gusts to 25 to 30
mph due to help from convective showers. Wind will continue to be
somewhat gusty this afternoon due to increased surface pressure
gradient, but as showers move off, gusts should let up by 5 to 10
mph by mid to late afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 437 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Upper air and satellite data showing zonal to slightly northwesterly
flow in place across the region, sitting between weak ridging over
the Rockies and a disturbance moving through the Great Lakes region.
Seeing some light returns on radar moving in from western Nebraska,
thanks to increased mid level lift on the southern edge of that
disturbance. At the surface, winds are east-northeasterly across the
CWA, driven by high pressure over central Canada. Speeds are
generally around 15 MPH, though there have been occasional gusts
near 20 mph. Temps are mild around the area at 3 am, with most in
the mid 40s.

Looking at the daytime hours today, will keep some low PoPs going
early this morning through midday, but anything that falls doesn`t
look to amount to whole lot. Kept the afternoon hours dry as the
mid/upper level disturbance continues pushing east. At the surface,
a backdoor cool front will continue sliding south through the area
as high pressure settles a little further east-southeast. A tighter
pressure gradient is expected to keep winds on the breezy side
today, and gusts near 25 mph are not out of the question. Expecting
skies to be at least partly cloudy through the day. High
temperatures will be noticably cooler compared to the past few days,
with highs forecast to range from the mid 40s in the north to the
mid/upper 50s in the south.

Tonight, another weak upper level disturbance looks to move through
the area, bringing another chance at some light precipitation. Kept
PoPs in the 20-50% range, with the higher chances in the west-
northwestern portions of the CWA. Models are less than impressive
with their qpf fields, with many giving very little in the way of
accumulation. Precip type remains ra, sn or a mix of the two, though
it`s not totally out of the question a few locations could see a
brief bout of some sleet mixing. Just not confident enough in it
occurring to insert a mention in the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 437 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS...EVENTUALLY CROSSING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND EMERGING INTO
THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY...BRINGING WITH IT INCREASING INSTABILITY AND THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...AND CONTINUING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING.

EARLY INDICATIONS FROM THE NAM ARE THAT SOME MOISTURE...POSSIBLY IN
THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE THE BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL NOT BE REALIZED UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY...OR POSSIBLY
EVEN FRIDAY WITH THE PASSING LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...THERE
REMAINS JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY TO JUSTIFY
AT LEAST THE MENTION FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE AND LIMITED VALUES OF CAPE ON
THURSDAY...DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE POTENTIAL UNTIL
POSSIBLY LATER IN THE DAY WHEN MU CAPE VALUES IN MODEL SOUNDINGS
APPROACH 1000 JOULES/KG. NOT SURPRISINGLY...SPC NOW HAS THE LOCAL
AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD REPRESENT A MARGINAL HAIL/WIND THREAT IF IT
IS REALIZED.

ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSS THE LOCAL
AREA ON FRIDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD COME TO AN END...WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING RETURNING FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRIER AND MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE THE SUBSEQUENT LOW MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. ONCE
AGAIN...WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...EXPECT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALBEIT IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WITH ANY CONFIDENCE
WHETHER OR NOT THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY/FORCING/SHEAR WILL COMBINE
TO RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

OVERALL...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEGINNING OF A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD
OF WEATHER...WITH AT LEAST AN ADDITIONAL TWO SYSTEMS POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA WELL PAST THE END OF THE CURRENT EXTENDED
PERIODS THROUGH THE END OF THIS MONTH/EARLY APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

An upper level disturbance sliding mainly to the north of the area
continues to bring precipitation to the region, with the potential
for a few showers to affect the terminal areas. Did put in a VCSH
mention for a few hours this morning. The remainder of the
daytimes hours and into the evening is dry, before another upper
level disturbance crosses the Plains overnight. At this point,
confidence is not high enough in any impact to include in the TAF.
East-northeast winds will breezy this afternoon, with speeds
around 15 mph and gusts near 20 MPH.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Heinlein
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...Rossi
AVIATION...ADP


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