Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 220622
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
122 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...

AS WAS THE CASE 24 HOURS AGO...HAVE INHERITED PATCHY FOG WORDING
FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING FROM PREVIOUS SHIFTS...BUT
THIS TIME FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. ALSO AS WAS THE CASE 24 HOURS
AGO...CONFIDENCE IN REALIZING VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WORTHY OF
INCLUSION IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST (GENERALLY MEANING LESS THAN
2-3 MILES) IS WANING WITH TIME...AS STEADY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES
WOULD APPEAR TO BE WORKING AGAINST FOG DEVELOPMENT...AND ITS EVEN
BECOMING QUESTIONABLE WHETHER ANY APPRECIABLE LOWER LEVEL STRATUS
WILL BE ABLE TO FORM. AT ANY RATE...AT THE RISK OF DROPPING PATCHY
FOG MENTION TOO EARLY AND GETTING CAUGHT OFF GUARD LATER...HAVE
MAINTAINED THIS MENTION IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST BUT DELAYED ANY
ONSET UNTIL AFTER 09Z/4AM...AND WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS
CLOSER TO MAIN FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME IN A FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...HAVE MADE GENERALLY ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO OTHER WEATHER
ELEMENTS...AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH IN DRY CONDITIONS
CWA-WIDE THROUGH SUNRISE AND LIKELY AT LEAST SHORTLY BEYOND. LOW
TEMPS THIS MORNING CURRENTLY APPEAR ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE
52-56 RANGE MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UNSEASONABLY MILD FALL CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS
TODAY IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER AND AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES.  IN STEADY SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH ALONG
THE HIGH PLAINS...MOISTURE WAS ON THE INCREASE WITH DPS RISING INTO
THE 40S AND 50S.  IN FULL INSOLATION...TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S.

THE FIRST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THE REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS WITH
THE INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE.  SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST
DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW BAND OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES AND SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  NAM
VSBY PROGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW VSBYS DEVELOPING AFTER
06Z ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA AND SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK
WHEREAS SREF INDICATES THE LOWER VSBYS WILL GENERALLY BE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281.  THIS BEING SAID WITH MODELS SUGGESTING STRATUS/FOG
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL AND WENT AHEAD WITH PATCHY FOG
WORDING.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STEADY THRU THE NIGHT...GENERALLY
AOA 10KTS AND EXPECT THIS WILL PRECLUDE ANY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT
BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR TRENDS OF THIS.

THE LLVL JET STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 40KTS OVERNIGHT WITH THE NOSE OF
THE JET AXIS FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH AND EAST SO NOT LOOKING FOR ANY
PCPN DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY EDGE INTO OUR WESTERN CWA
MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE TRANSLATING
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
MID/LATE MORNING IN PRESENCE OF STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH
PCPN BAND ORIENTED N/S. INSTABILITY IS ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE HOWEVER SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND ONE INCH AND IN
GENERAL SOME QUARTER TO HALF INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...AND THIS IS OUR BEST CHC FOR RAIN FOR ANOTHER SEVERAL
DAYS.  HAVE SCALED BACK WEDNESDAY TEMPS DUE TO PCPN AND EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER.  READINGS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S NW/SE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM REVOLVES AROUND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT BOTH ENDS OF THE PERIOD.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING THE REGION UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM LOW
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH RIDGING IN PLACE ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE A LARGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINS JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO MAKING ITS WAY EAST...BRINGING A
MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS...BUT ITS A WEAK FRONT SO NOT
LOOKING AT A NOTABLE INCREASE IN SPEEDS. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A LINE OF
MAINLY SHOWERS /A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE/ SLIDING EAST
ACROSS THE CWA...AND LOOKS TO PRIMARILY AFFECT THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEDNESDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WAS TO ADD MORE TIMING DETAILS...HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS FROM 00-03Z...QUICKLY DROPPING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
FROM 03-09Z...WITH THE FORECAST DRYING OUT FOR 09-12ZZ.

KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY...BY
EVENING THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE WI/IL
AREA...CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST BEFORE BECOMING MORE PHASED INTO THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN PLACE OVER THE NERN CONUS AS WE
GET INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...BY THE END
OF THE DAY THURSDAY MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING MORE
AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE
WEST...AS RIDGING IS TRYING TO BUILD NORTH OUT OF THE DESERT
SW/MEXICO AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WELL OF THE WEST COAST. THIS
RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH AS WE GET INTO FRIDAY AND SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST...WITH THE AXIS BEING CENTERED THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH THE DAYTIME ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE FORECAST A DRY
ONE.

LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FINALLY MAKING ITS WAY ONTO THE WEST COAST...INTO THE ROCKIES AND
EVENTUALLY THE PLAINS. NOT EXPECTING PRECIP ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STARTING TO TURN MORE SWRLY AHEAD OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM...BUT THE BETTER LIFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST.
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO WORK THEIR WAY IN ON MONDAY...BUT
AS IS COMMON THIS FAR OUT...THERE ARE SOME TIMING/LOCATION
DIFFERENCES /THOUGH AT THIS TIME THEY ARE FAIRLY MINOR/ BETWEEN
MODELS WITH THE INITIAL ONSET AND EVOLUTION. AT THIS TIME...KEPT
POPS CONFINED TO THE 12-00Z MONDAY PERIOD...BUT ITS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION SOME POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE MON EVENING/OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND.  BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS HAVE TUESDAY
DRY AT THIS POINT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...STILL
LOOKING AT A NICE PERIOD OF HIGHS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR /ROUGHLY THE LOWER TO MID 60S/...BEFORE COOLER AIR MOVES IN
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK/WEEKEND...LOOKING AT A WARMING
TREND...WITH THURS HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S AND MID 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR FRI/SAT.  SUNDAYS NOT BAD EITHER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
70S...BEFORE THAT NEXT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH BRINGS HIGHS BACK NEAR
AVERAGE IN THE NEAR 60 TO MID 60S RANGE FOR MON/TUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS...BOTH VFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY CONTINUE
TO BE ADVERTISED THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THE MAIN
CAVEAT BEING AT LEAST AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF AN MVFR STRATUS
DECK MATERIALIZING SOMETIME AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE LINE OF
SHOWERS/MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CROSS THROUGH THE
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SPEAKING OF THIS
PRECIPITATION CHANCE...THE PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCES ALREADY HAD A
PREVAILING RAIN GROUP GOING...SO MAINTAINED THIS BUT ATTEMPTED TO
REFINE TIMING BY DELAYING THE ONSET A BIT AND CONFINING ALL
SHOWER POTENTIAL INTO THE 17-22Z TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH
FAIRLY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS...OPTED AGAINST A FORMAL THUNDER MENTION AT THIS TIME.
BACKING UP TO THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...MAINTAINED A MENTION OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) FOR EARLY THIS MORNING AND ACTUALLY
EXTENDED IT THROUGH 15Z...AS THE OVERALL BULK SHEAR DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ROUGHLY 1200 FT AGL IS AVERAGING 30-35KT
THANKS TO A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE. AS FOR SURFACE WINDS...FAIRLY STEADY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
BREEZES EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND 12KT SHOULD PICK UP A BIT LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE VEERING MORE WESTERLY AND
DIMINISHING BEHIND THE DEPARTING PRECIPITATION. BY THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES SHOULD BE IN PLACE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



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