Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGID 241024
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
424 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONG WAVE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS SOUTH ALONG THE WEST
CONUS COAST...THEN EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND FINALLY NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 40KTS NEAR
31000FT AGL PER 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA...MOVING SOUTHEAST. AT THE
SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER ONTARIO
AND AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE ROCKIES.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS ALSO NOTED DEVELOPING
OVER EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN...JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE. BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA
REMAINS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS A RESULT.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC SUGGEST THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN
CANADA...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LIKELY
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z SUNDAY...AND INTO THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LIKELY MOVING INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY...AND INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PASSAGE OF A BOUNDARY-
LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING...THUS ALLOWING
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA TO BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

DPVA AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE
WILL PROVIDE INCREASING OMEGA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE SHORT WAVE...GUIDANCE ALSO
SUGGESTS THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF A ~90KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET
STREAK WILL SET UP OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA...THUS ALSO HELPING TO
PROMOTE INCREASING OMEGA VALUES. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE VAST
MAJORITY OF OMEGA WILL REMAIN EAST OF OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...THERE ARE SIGNALS FROM VARIOUS SETS OF MODEL GUIDANCE
THAT THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRIMARY OMEGA FIELD AND
RESULTANT LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD CLIP FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH A MENTION OF
SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR NORTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...AND EVEN WENT AS FAR AS A ~20% POP FOR A MIX OF LIGHT
RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW 06-12Z AS OMEGA VALUES MAX OUT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS.
AGAIN...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS REALIZED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...WITH NOTHING IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED SHOULD SNOW PRODUCTION BE REALIZED.

BY FAR THE BIGGEST STORY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE
INCREASING WIND FIELD. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INCREASING BOUNDARY-
LAYER HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT POST-FROPA WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. BOTH THE
NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGEST A HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
THE ORDER OF 30-35UBAR/KM WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA BY 06Z TONIGHT AND GIVEN THIS...ITS HARD TO UNDERSTAND WHY
MET/NAM GUIDANCE IS PRESENTING A MUCH WEAKER WIND FIELD WHEN
COMPARED TO MAV/GFS GUIDANCE...AROUND 14KTS LOWER FOR SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR NORTH. GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE
HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...AM INCLINED TO PLAY CLOSER TO THE
TRADITIONALLY-WINDIER MAV/GFS GUIDANCE AND AS A RESULT...A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 16-26KTS IS NOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA BY
TONIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST WIND GENERALLY NORTH OF I-80 AND A
WEAKER WIND FARTHER SOUTH. IN ADDITION TO THE SUSTAINED WIND...THE
GUST POTENTIAL LOOKS RESPECTABLE AS WELL. FORECAST PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...IN PARTICULAR FROM THE OPERATIONAL
GFS...ARE SOMEWHAT INTIMIDATING BY SUGGESTING A BOUNDARY-LAYER
HEIGHT TO AROUND 4000FT AGL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND INTO THE 1000-2000FT AGL RANGE TONIGHT...WILL BE
DEEP ENOUGH FOR THE INCLUSION OF A 50-55KT WIND NEAR THE TOP OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ASSUMING SOME LOSS IN MAGNITUDE DURING
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE SUGGESTS A GUST POTENTIAL NEAR
40KTS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR NORTH.

WITH FROPA HOLDING OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING...TODAYS BOUNDARY-LAYER
AIR MASS SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT WHEN COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. BUT WITH A STRENGTHENING DOWN-SLOPE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND FIELD A WARMER DAY SHOULD ACTUALLY BE OBSERVED TODAY WHEN
COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH LOW 60S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DESPITE THE FROPA THIS
EVENING...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COOLER AIR WILL WAIT UNTIL THE DAY
SUNDAY BEFORE TRULY MOVING IN...THUS RESULTING IN MILD TEMPERATURE
READINGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 30S...PERHAPS A TOUCH COOLER ACROSS OUR WEST AND A
TOUCH WARMER ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

WITH A CONTINUED VERY LIMITED RISK OF PRECIPITATION (ESPECIALLY OF
THE MEASURABLE VARIETY) THROUGH THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...THE BIG STORY
CONTINUES TO BE THE EVER-GROWING STRING OF ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH NOT EVERY DAY WILL BE BALMY BY ANY
MEANS...WE ARE NOW ADVERTISING THE ONGOING STREAK OF
ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO REACH AT LEAST 16 DAYS THROUGH
FRIDAY JAN. 30TH. JUST BEYOND THIS (AND JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST)...THERE ARE STILL DECENT SIGNS OF A MORE
WINTRY CHILL-DOWN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHICH COULD VERY WELL END THIS
STREAK. FOR THOSE WHO DIDN/T CATCH THIS NOTE YESTERDAY...THIS
WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING THE LONGEST STRETCH OF ABOVE-NORMAL
JANUARY DAYS SINCE THE THE RECORD-WARM JANUARY 2006...WHICH LAYS
CLAIM TO THE RECORD BOOKS AT PLACES SUCH AS GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS.
THAT MONTH...GRAND ISLAND AVERAGED AN INCREDIBLE 13.3 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...AS EVERY SINGLE DAY OF THE MONTH WAS ABOVE AVERAGE!

GETTING BACK ON TRACK WITH THE PRESENT FORECAST...THIS LATEST
ISSUANCE REALLY ONLY FEATURES ONE "NOTABLE" CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS...AND THAT CENTERS AROUND THE FACT THAT SUNDAY CONTINUES
TO TREND CHILLIER AND LESS-PLEASANT GIVEN RATHER BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS (ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE-AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S MOST
AREAS). FOR THOSE KEEPING SCORE...HIGH TEMPS FOR SUNDAY HAVE NOW
BEEN LOWERED ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE
BEYOND SUNDAY...THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME LOOKS TO FEATURE
ANOTHER STRETCH OF WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE 50S-60S. THEN
COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FOR THURS-FRI AS HIGHS FALL BACK INTO THE
40S...BUT AGAIN THIS IS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AVERAGE LATE-
JANUARY HIGH OF 35-40.

PRECIPITATION-WISE THROUGH THESE 6-DAYS...HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES TO A HANDFUL OF FAR
EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR SUNDAY MORNING...AS A
CONTINUATION OF THE PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AS DESCRIBED IN THE
SHORT TERM SECTION ABOVE. OTHERWISE...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN
THE REMAINDER OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD REMAINING DRY CWA-
WIDE...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP ON EYE ON A WEAK DISTURBANCE
AROUND MID-WEEK THAT COULD TRY TO DROP SOME MORE FLURRY/SPRINKLE
ACTIVITY. BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS
SUGGESTS SOME SNOW POTENTIAL BUT THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY...SO A
BOATLOAD OF UNCERTAINTY HERE.

AS FOR POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARDS THAT MERIT INCLUSION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT (HWOGID)...HAVE INTRODUCED A
"NEAR-CRITICAL" FIRE DANGER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA. PLEASE SEE THE SEPARATE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

NOW DIVING INTO GREATER FORECAST DETAIL IN MAINLY 24 HOUR
CHUNKS...

SUNDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...AS ALREADY MENTIONED ABOVE...THOSE FOLKS
WHO MAY BE A FEW DAYS BEHIND ON FORECAST TRENDS MAY BE IN FOR A
BIT OF AN UNPLEASANT SURPRISE HERE GIVEN THE COOLER TEMPS AND
BRISK WIND. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL BIG PICTURE...THE DAY WILL
START WITH A VIGOROUS NORTHERLY-FLOW CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUING TO
DIVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NEB/KS/IA/MO AREA...POWERED BY A STOUT
UPPER JET STREAK THAT WILL LIKELY PEAK AROUND 150KT AT THE 300
MILLIBAR LEVEL. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START THE DAY WELL-EAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA NEAR THE MO/IA/IL BORDER AREA...BEFORE DEPARTING
FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION BY DAYS END ALONG WITH
THE PARENT UPPER SYSTEM. OF GREATEST CERTAINTY IS THAT IT WILL BE
A RATHER WINDY DAY...WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND
25 MPH AND GUSTS 35-40 MPH. PRECIPITATION-WISE...ALTHOUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING FROM THE STRONG UPPER JET
STREAK TO AT LEAST PROMOTE SOME SPRINKLE AND/OR FLURRY ACTIVITY
MAINLY WITHIN THE FAR EASTERN CWA IN NEBRASKA...AND THIS HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID-DAY. CERTAINLY THE BETTER
MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN/SNOW CHANCES SHOULD RESIDE JUST EAST OF THE
CWA CLOSER TO THE IA BORDER AND POINTS EAST. AT LEAST FOR
NOW...HAVE LEFT THE AFTERNOON VOID OF ANY PRECIP
MENTION....ALTHOUGH A POTENTIALLY DENSE LOWER STRATUS DECK COULD
PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER
HAS BEEN RAISED INTO PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY TERRITORY MOST
PLACES...BUT THIS COULD ACTUALLY END UP BEING MORE MOSTLY CLOUDY-
CLOUDY IF TRENDS CONTINUE. THANKS TO THE CLOUDS AND BACK-DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING IN...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ANOTHER 6 DEGREES OR SO FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND POTENTIALLY NOT EVEN ENOUGH. FOR NOW
THOUGH...HAVE HIGHS AIMED LOW 40S-LOW 50S FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...BUT ITS AN
INTERESTING TEMPERATURE SITUATION AS WELL...AS RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A PASSING SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL PROMOTE INCREASING
WESTERLY BREEZES AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY POST-
MIDNIGHT. THIS ARGUES FAIRLY CONVINCINGLY FOR AT LEAST A MODEST
TEMPERATURE-RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LOWS PROBABLY ACHIEVED
BY/NEAR MIDNIGHT. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THESE LOWS...STILL AIMING
MOST AREAS NEAR-30.

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...THE GOOD NEWS FOR MOST FOLKS HERE IS
THAT IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN SUNDAY. THE BAD NEWS THAT
NORTHWEST WIND SPEEDS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD BEHIND THE PASSING
SURFACE TROUGH...AND ALTHOUGH NOT AS WINDY AS SUNDAY...SUSTAINED
SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...AN EXPANSIVE/AMPLIFIED RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE
WEST...ALMOST ASSURING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH
TEMPS WERE RAISED 2-3 DEGREES MOST AREAS...WITH MOST OF THE CWA
AIMED INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...AND UPPER 60S FAR SOUTHWEST. SEE
SEPARATE FIRE SECTION BELOW FOR NEAR-CRITICAL CONCERNS.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...CONTINUED QUITE MILD...BUT APPEARS THAT
TEMPS MAY FALL A BIT SHORT OF THOSE ON MONDAY...MAINLY DUE TO
LESS-FAVORABLE MIXING AS SURFACE BREEZES TRANSITION TO A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AROUND 10-15 MPH BEHIND A DEPARTING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT ANY RATE...THESE HIGHS WERE ALSO
NUDGED UP A COUPLE DEGREES...NOW PUTTING MOST NEB ZONES WELL INTO
THE MID-UPPER 50S AND KS ZONES LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...THIS IS ALMOST CERTAINLY THE FINAL VERY
MILD DAY OF THIS STRETCH...AS BREEZES TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN.
AGAIN NUDGED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH...BUT
AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 57-63 RANGE. CONFIDENCE WANES
SLIGHTLY IN THE DRY FORECAST DURING THESE 24 HOURS...AS ALTHOUGH
THEY DIFFER IN THE DETAILS...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS BRING A RATHER
MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHICH COULD MAYBE PROMOTE SOME MAINLY NON-MEASURABLE
PRECIP. SOMETHING TO WATCH AS IT GETS CLOSER. OF GREATER CERTAINTY
IS THAT A DECENTLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH IN THE DRY
FORECAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE DURING THE PRECEDING 24
HOURS...BUT IT WILL MOST-DEFINITELY BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGHS HERE...RANGING FROM LOW 40S NORTH TO
NEAR-50 SOUTH.

FRIDAY DAYTIME...AS USUAL AT THIS RANGE CONFIDENCE STARTS TO WANE
A BIT...BUT IT AT LEAST STILL APPEARS DRY. TEMP-WISE...THE DEFAULT
MULTI-MODEL BLEND VERY PRELIMINARILY AIMS HIGHS INTO THE 40-45
RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...BUT ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
LATEST ECMWF RUN SUGGESTS IT COULD BE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THIS...WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS MAYBE 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST
VALUES. NO MATTER WHAT FRIDAY YIELDS...BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT
NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR IS PROBABLY IN STORE BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR APPEARS LIKELY TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

INCREASING CLOUD COVER...WITH A BASE NEAR 15000FT AGL...WILL BE
OBSERVED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN
FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST...SUSTAINED AT AROUND 09KTS TO START
THE TAF PERIOD BUT INCREASING TO AROUND 20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT A STRENGTHENING
WIND FIELD JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PROMOTE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT BOTH TAF SITES
STARTING 03Z...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE TAF. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURE READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW 60S AND DEW POINT READINGS REMAINING IN THE MID 20S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM PHILLIPSBURG TO OSBORNE...AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE 23-25% RANGE NOW SEEM POSSIBLE PRIMARILY BETWEEN 20Z AND
23Z. IN ADDITION TO THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...A SUSTAINED
WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND OF ~20MPH WILL ACCOMPANY GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH
DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD. GIVEN ALL THIS...NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AGAIN
PRIMARILY BETWEEN 20Z AND 23Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM PHILLIPSBURG TO OSBORNE.

JUMPING AHEAD A FEW DAYS TO MONDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AND TIME FOR REFINEMENT...CONCERN IS
INCREASING FOR NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER AGAIN SHOWING ITS HAND
MAINLY WITHIN A HANDFUL OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...PRIMARILY
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ELWOOD-OSBORNE. WITHIN THIS AREA...THE
CURRENT FORECAST ADVERTISES AT LEAST A FEW-HOURS OVERLAP OF
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING BETWEEN 20-25 PERCENT AND NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTING 20-25 MPH. AS A RESULT...WILL BE INTRODUCING NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
MONDAY...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY IN CASE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TREND FURTHER DOWNWARD BELOW 20 PERCENT
(CRITICAL THRESHOLD).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BRYANT
FIRE WEATHER...BRYANT/PFANNKUCH



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.