Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 250815
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
315 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

TODAY WILL BE RELATIVELY PLEASANT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO
IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING
EASTERLY BY EVENING. MAXIMUM INSOLATION AND LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE 70S.

TONIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL STREAM BACK TO THE NORTH BRINGING WITH
IT WARM MOIST AIR. CLOUDS WILL FILL IN FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH
AS THIS FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN HITTING NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING AND TRACK NORTHWARD TO NORTH OF
THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA STATE LINE BY SUNRISE. AS THIS WARM MOIST AIR
MOVES NORTH AND WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE
FOG IS A CONCERN TOWARD MORNING. IN ADDITION TO ALL OF THIS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH SUNRISE. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD HAVE
SMALL HAIL...BUT WIDESPREAD STRONG STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. THE
BIGGER SEVERE CONCERN IS ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO IOWA FROM
TUESDAY MORNING TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS STILL HAVE A FEW
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW. THE DIFFERENCES ARE FAIRLY
MINOR BUT THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY. THERE IS A SURFACE
LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AS
WELL. ALL OF THIS LEADS TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA. TUESDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER BUT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE INSTABILITY ALSO INCREASES. BY
MID DAY THE MUCAPE IS 4000 J/KG FOR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THEN PUSHES
TO THE NORTH ALONG A WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO THE EAST FROM THE
SURFACE LOW. THE MUCAPE FALLS OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING
BUT IS STILL ENOUGH TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE
UPPER LOW  MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THE GFS BRINGS IN A DRY SLOT
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND THERE IS NOT A DRY SLOT. HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRACK TO SEE HOW MUCH THERE WILL
BE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.

BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND THERE IS WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA.
THERE IS STILL A LITTLE CAPE...BUT MUCH LOWER THAN TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT SO JUST HAVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER LOW IS
SLOW TO DEPART THE AREA AND THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY IN THE FAR NORTH. THROUGH
THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER EACH DAY.

THE BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS IS SHORT LIVED. BY THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL START TO AFFECT THE AREA
AGAIN. THIS UPPER LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS TO IOWA
THROUGH SUNDAY. ONCE AGAIN THE MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TRACKS
AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE ONLY SIMILARITY IS THAT BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF PAINT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
THERE IS SOME CAPE WITH THIS BUT NOT AS MUCH SO HAVE KEPT MOSTLY
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS
WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND RELATIVELY LIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME
VARIABLE AND EASTERLY BY THE END OF THE DAY MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE
RELATIVELY CLEAR WITH HIGH CLOUDS ONLY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BILLINGS WRIGHT
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...BILLINGS WRIGHT



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