Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 231021
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
521 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Another hot day is forecast today before a cold frontal boundary
crosses our region this evening and tonight. The pattern aloft
featured a series of shortwave troughs translating across the
Central and Northern Plains states which were breaking down the
upper ridge axis and shunting it south to the Southern Plains, and
bringing more zonal flow to our region. Convection initiated along
the high plains during the evening hours and this activity was
gradually working eastward early this morning and expect some hit
or miss activity to linger into the first part of today.

Temperatures are tricky given the varying cloud cover from the
remnant convection however mid level temperatures remain very toasty
near 30C ahead of an approaching cold frontal boundary moving
through western Nebraska during the afternoon. Still looking for
temperatures to top out well into the 90s to over 100 degrees and
combined with high dewpoints primarily in the 70s, afternoon heat
indices in the 100 to 107 degree range are expected and the
current heat headline remains in effect through early evening.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms are possible this evening
and tonight as the cold frontal boundary crosses our cwa. Convective
models are not impressive on coverage of convection but cannot rule
out the chance along the baroclinic zone. If storms can go, a strong
to severe storm may occur with damaging winds and large hail the
primary hazards.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Primary forecast concern through the long term lies with
thunderstorm chances.

At the start of the period Sunday morning, models continue to show
upper level zonal flow in place across the region, set up between
elongated high pressure across the southern CONUS and a low pressure
system moving into Ontario. At the surface, a cold front continues
to shift south, pushed by that northern system, and at 12Z looks to
be draped near the NE/KS state line. Models continue to vary with
how much/if any precipitation is ongoing Sunday morning, so while
PoPs are still in the forecast, they remain low. Through the day,
the surface front sags a bit further south, ending up near I-70,
before stalling as it loses its upper level push. With this front
around, though overall forcing is on the weak side, can`t completely
rule out preciptiation, and have 20-30% chances continuing into
Sunday night/Monday morning. Possible that should additional storms
form, some could be on the strong side, but at this point the
overall threat of severe weather is on the low side. Main story for
Sunday however will be the noticeable change in temperatures, with
the CWA sitting on the northern side of that front. East-northeast
winds are expected through the day, around 10-15 MPH. Highs will be
closer to normal for this time of year, and are expected to top out
in the mid 80s in the north to lower/mid 90s in the south.

As we get into the work week, overall confidence in precipitation
chances remains low. Outside of there being good chances in much of
the day Monday being dry, chances remain in the forecast through the
period. Upper level high pressure over the southern CONUS tries to
reamplify and ends up getting reorganized over the desert SW, but
never can build too far north with a train of disturbances moving
through. The next best chances look to come Tuesday night into
Wednesday with a stronger wave, but can`t totally rule out any day
beyond that. Have 50% chances in Tues Night-Wed morning, with 20-40%
following. Temperatures start the week out near normal in the upper
80s/near 90, but with the waves/precip chances moving through during
the rest of the week, highs by Friday in the lower/mid 80s are
possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 506 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Main concern for the taf period is whether or not convection will
reach the terminals. A few showers and storms remain early this
morning and this activity is expected to dissipate by mid morning.
After a lull in precipitation, another round of convection is
possible later this evening into tonight along a passing cold
frontal boundary. Ahead of the front today winds will be southerly
with gusts of 20 to 25kts possible at times. Look for winds to
shift northerly tonight behind the boundary.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fay
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...Fay


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