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733
FXUS63 KGID 201145
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
645 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

The big issue today will be gusty southerly winds as the pressure
gradient increases between a 1025 mb high over the eastern United
States and a 985 mb low over Montana. This will lead to southerly
winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts to around 40 mph. The wind will
be strongest during the afternoon hours. Dewpoints will be high
enough in the 50s that RH values should bottom out in the 35-50
percent range, which is moist enough that we will not have to
worry about fire weather headlines.

A quick moving open upper level trough will swing into the high
plains Friday evening brining with it a sfc cold front that may
enter our northwestern zones right around day break on Saturday.
Forecast models vary on the speed of the front with the 06Z NAM a
touch slower than the 00Z GFS. Gusty south winds will persist
ahead of the front throughout the night in most areas keeping lows
near record warmth. The record warm low temperature for Friday in
Grand Island is 59 and it`s 57 in Hastings. In addition, there is
at least a slight chance, primarily across eastern zones after
midnight, of catching a brief shower or thunderstorm with warm
air advection out ahead of the cold front.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

The long-term forecast starts off with a sharp cold front moving
across the area Saturday morning. This will bring a chance for rain
to the area. Models also depict ~500-700 J/kg of elevated CAPE,
which will be sufficient for thunderstorms. Any severe thunderstorms
should be east of the area, though, where the frontal timing is more
favorable for destabilization.

The frontal passage will be marked by gusty northwest winds behind
it. These winds will decrease in the evening, allowing temperatures
to fall off pretty quickly. Widespread temperatures in the 30s are
expected by Sunday morning. Some sub-freezing temperatures are also
possible, mainly north and west of the tri-cities.

The remainder of the forecast period is expected to remain dry, and
the main focus is on temperatures.

Sunday and Monday are expected to be relatively mild with highs in
the upper 60s to lower 70s. Cooler weather will move in Monday night
into Tuesday as a deep upper trough sinks southward into the area.
As a result, low temperatures should drop into the low to mid 30s
Tuesday night.

Temperatures will rebound Wednesday, but yet another front is poised
to impact the area on Thursday. While it looks like a mostly dry
frontal passage, it will bring another shot of cold air. Current
forecast lows for Thursday night are low to mid 30s, but I wouldn`t
be surprised to see this trend a bit lower.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Saturday)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Strong low level wind shear is expected to continue through much
of the morning. There is a strong south southwest low level jet of
around 50kts at around 1,400 AGL. The wind shear will decrease by
late morning as the sfc winds start to increase resulting in less
overall shear and just plain windy conditions. The sfc wind is
expected to remain strong through tonight out ahead of an
approaching cold front. Given the stronger sfc winds expected
tonight the wind shear difference will likely not meet criteria
tonight.

We Will continue to keep thunderstorms out of the TAF for
now as they most likely will be east of the forecast area tonight
should they even develop. The strong south southwest winds this
afternoon and tonight may result in strong crosswinds on some
runways.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wesely
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Wesely