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000
FXUS63 KGID 161114
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
614 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Thunderstorms continue to produce some good rainfall amounts this
morning. Although the area of heaviest rain has diminished, there is
another band of storms moving into the area and there is an area of
stratiform rain behind the storms.

The short term models are still struggling with the current
convection, but the NAM, GFS and ECMWF have a few similarities.
There is an upper level trough that will be affecting the area
through the day. At the surface there is a cold front that is the
focus for the line of thunderstorms in the western part of the
forecast area this morning. The thunderstorms ahead of the line will
continue to move to the northeast and should exit the area toward
daybreak. The line of thunderstorms will continue to move to the
east. It looks like everyone should get some rain, but north central
Kansas and southern parts of Nebraska will get less than some of the
areas further north.

The main question for today will be when will precipitation come to
an end? The models have some precipitation around during the morning
and by afternoon there is a weak upper level wave that will slide in
and could bring another chance for some thunderstorms during the
afternoon. Have lingered some small PoPs in the eastern part of the
forecast area during the evening, but most of the models have
precipitation moving out during the late afternoon and early
evening. As the precipitation moves out, clouds will diminish as a
weak surface high moves into the area late tonight.

Temperatures behind the cold front will be cooler, especially with
clouds and precipitation around during the day.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 6 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Overall...near normal temperatures with multiple...generally
small...chances for thunderstorms exist through the extended period.

Expect an upper level wave in northwesterly flow to cross the local
area Thursday night into Friday...likely brining the best chance for
precipitation through the extended periods. With minimal and
primarily elevated instability to work with...severe weather is not
likely with this system. Thereafter...chances for precipitation
should diminish significantly over the weekend as a weak upper level
ridge transitions across the area on Saturday. Thereafter...the
upper flow will become more zonal with several...quick passing...and
generally weak...upper level disturbances bringing small chances for
precipitation to the local area. Temperatures through the period are
expected to fluctuate within a few degrees of climatology for late
August.


.ECLIPSE...

A total Solar Eclipse will occur Monday August 21st around 1pm CDT.

Still quite a bit of uncertainty with the forecast for next Monday.
What is becoming more certain is the upper level flow pattern which
appears to be primarily zonal across the plains. With a zonal flow
pattern...there is always the chance for a quick passing disturbance
to impact the local area. While models have keyed in on one such
disturbance next Monday...it does appear to be later in the day...so
we remain optimistic that there should be partly to mostly sunny
skies during the early afternoon hours...which is typical for this
time of year. As a result...bucked model guidance just a bit and
lowered sky cover through the mid afternoon hours on the day of the
eclipse and focused any chances for precipitation towards the late
afternoon and evening hours MOnday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Wednesday)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Showers and isolated thunderstorms should gradually diminish this
morning, but there is a chance for some scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...Rossi
AVIATION...JCB