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000
FXUS63 KGID 211720
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1220 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 533 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG IN OUR NW ZONES AS
VSBYS HAVE BEEN VARYING ABOVE/BELOW ONE MILE. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED
INTO THE 60S IN THIS AREA AND WINDS ARE NEARLY CALM. VSBYS WILL
RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE HEAT IS HERE AND HOT WEATHER PRETTY MUCH SUMS UP THE SHORT TERM
PERIODS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FM
THE DESERT SW...NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES AVERAGED IN THE 70S WHICH IS QUITE THE CHANGE
FROM A FEW MORNINGS AGO WHEN READINGS WERE IN THE 50S.  SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE AT THE SFC WITH LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED IN EASTERN WY AND A TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
NEB/KS.

H85 TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S EAST/WEST ARE PROGGED THIS
AFTN AND WILL SPELL NOTHING BUT HOT SUMMER WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. SEE
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM OUR CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS TODAY (95 TO
105F) AS ALL MODELS SHOW INDICATE MAX TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S
TO OVER THE CENTURY MARK.  THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHC THAT A HIGHER
DEWPOINT MAY HOLD A MAX TEMP DOWN SLIGHTLY...OR THERE IS SOME
INDICATION BY MODELS THAT HIGH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE
LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT SW MAY INCREASE AND HAVE A SIMILAR EFFECT.
EVEN IF TEMPS ARE A DEGREE OR SO COOLER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST IT
IS STILL PLENTY HOT AND THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR TODAY
IS WARRANTED WITH HEAT INDICES AT OR ABOVE 105F.

HEADING INTO THE LATE AFTN OR MORE SO INTO THE EVENING AN ISOLATED
TSTM JUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO STRONG HEATING IN THE VCNTY OF THE SFC BOUNDARY/TROUGH. IF
STORMS DEVELOP EXPECT THEY WILL STRUGGLE WITH HOT MID LEVEL TEMPS OF
16C IN PLACE AT H7.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

THIS SECTION WILL BE COMPLETED/UPDATED BY 5 AM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON TUESDAY.

OCCASIONAL CLOUD COVER...WITH A BASE NEAR 6000FT AGL...WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE SURFACE WIND
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...SUSTAINED AT 8-11KTS. A LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WIND
IS THEN EXPECTED HEADING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A ~40KT JET AXIS JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PROMOTE A
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT BOTH TAF SITES EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND AS A RESULT...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN INTRODUCED
TO BOTH TAFS 04-11Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT BOTH TAF SITES THIS EVENING...BUT AT THIS
TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH ACTIVITY BEING REALIZED AT EITHER
SITE IS TOO LOW FOR INTRODUCTION INTO THE TAF. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-
     060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAY
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BRYANT