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000
FXUS63 KGID 061354
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
754 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 751 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY A FEW COUNTIES. JYR AND HYS ARE
M1/4SM...WITH RSL 1/2SM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

BELOIT AND HEBRON ARE DOWN TO 1/4SM IN DENSE FOG. AN ADVISORY WILL
BE POSTED SHORTLY. UNSURE HOW FAR NW TO EXTEND IT. SO MONITOR
SHORT-TERM TRENDS AS WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND IT AS THE MORNING WEARS
ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

...BREEZY AND VERY WARM TODAY AND WHILE WE WILL COOL DOWN FRI-SAT
WE ARE STILL IN FOR MORE SPECTACULAR SPRING WARMTH SUN-MON...

ALOFT: FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW WAS OVER THE N AMERICA WITH
A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR A WRN RIDGE/ERN TROF. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL ADVANCE OVER THE REGION TODAY...AHEAD OF A TROF THAT WILL
MOVE ONSHORE OFF THE PACIFIC. THIS TROF WILL BEGIN TO DIG SE
TONIGHT AS IT PROGRESSES DEEPER INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
MEANWHILE...A MUCH MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SWING THRU THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

SURFACE: STRONG HIGH PRES IS OVER THE NE STATES AND QUEBEC...AND
ENCOMPASSED THE ENTIRE ERN USA. THE CNTRL PLAINS REGION WAS IN
THE WARM SECTOR. A FRESH POLAR FRONT WAS ALONG THE US-CANADA
BORDER. A WEAK LOW WILL HEAD E TODAY AND BE LOCATED NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK FRI. IN ITS WAKE...THE FRONT WILL DROP S THRU
THE PLAINS. IT WILL MOVE INTO S-CNTRL NEB AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BISECTING THE FCST AREA FROM ROUGHLY BEAVER CITY-
FULLERTON NEB AT DAWN FRI.

STRATUS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF HAS BEEN
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT E-SE-S OF THE FCST AREA...AND GRADUALLY
CREEPING N. THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON IT AND WE USED IT TO
GUIDE THE FCST.

THRU SUNRISE: PATCHY CIRROSTRATUS WILL MAKE FOR A BEAUTIFUL
SUNRISE AWAY FROM LOW CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG COULD BECOME A PROBLEM
OVER N-CNTRL KS. VISIBILITIES ARE 4-5 MI AT 0830Z. IT ALL DEPENDS
ON WINDS WHICH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE S AND IF STRATUS MOVES IN.

TODAY: OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY UNDER PATCHES OF 25K FT
CIRROSTRATUS. BREEZY S WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 MPH N OF NEB HWY
6. WINDS WERE NUDGED UPWARD 5 MPH FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. A LEE-
SIDE TROF WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN...STRENGTHENING THE PRES
GRADIENT.

WE MAY HAVE A STRATUS PROBLEM S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES THRU
MIDDAY. MIXING AND THE THIN NATURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ITS GRADUAL
EROSION. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON ITS ULTIMATE EXTENT AND HOW
LONG IT LINGERS.

HIGH TEMPS FROM YESTERDAY`S DAY SHIFT LOOK EXCELLENT. WAS
PLANNING ON RAISING TEMPS ANOTHER 2-3F E OF HWY 281...BUT
REFRAINED BECAUSE STRATUS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. NO
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST.

TONIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE AND THICKEN. IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FRZG. WINDS WILL DROP OFF BY
SUNSET... BUT SHOULD STILL BE GUSTY THRU THE EVENING HOURS.

DO WE HAVE A FOG PROBLEM TOWARD DAWN FRI? NOT SURE BUT THIS NEEDS
FURTHER EVALUATION BY THE DAY SHIFT. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING
TODAY AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE FRONTAL TROF
MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOW TEMPS WERE RAISED 2-4 DEGS N OF NEB HWY 6. THE CONSENSUS OF
MODEL 2M TEMPS /CONSRAW/ RULES IN THESE SITUATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AND DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

WE WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM FRIDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT
BISECTING OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)...ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST. THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE COLD FRONT PRESSES
SOUTH...PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT AND ALTHOUGH
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING ON FRIDAY...IT WILL NOT REALLY
GET GOING STRONGER UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. THIS PUTS US IN A QUANDARY
FOR DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH
PAINTING LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION OVER US FOR THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE NAM IS MORE HOPEFUL FOR
PRECIPITATION . ALSO THE NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
QUICK SHOT AT SOME SNOW...BUT JUDGING BY THE MODEST STRENGTH OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...ALONG WITH THIS BEING DURING
THE DAY AND BATTLING WARMED SURFACES...I AM LEANING MORE TOWARD RAIN FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...AND TRANSITIONING TO SOME LIGHT SNOW AS THE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. EVEN IF WE DO GET SOME SNOW...MUCH OF THIS
WILL MELT ON CONTACT WITH THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY WIND UP
BEING A TAD ON THE EARLY SIDE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWEST...BUT
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP ENOUGH AND IN TIME TO GIVE US MUCH SNOW AT
ALL. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT FOR PRECIPITATION
TYPE...AND HENCE...HOW MUCH SNOW...IF ANY...IS STILL UP FOR GRABS TO
SOME EXTENT. I RAISED WIND GUSTS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT BY ABOUT 5 TO 7 KTS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WIND GUST
TOOL...FOLLOWING CLOSER TO CONSRAW WIND GUSTS.

AFTER A COOL DAY FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF THE COOLER
AIR...A WARM-UP WILL OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE LOCAL FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BY MONDAY...ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE THAT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S...IF NOT 70S...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH.

THE NEXT SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION COMES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A WAVE APPROACHES AND DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. THERE IS HARDLY
WIDESPREAD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE ECMWF PAINTS
A STOUT QPF FIELD OVER OUR AREA...AND THE GFS SHUNTS MOST
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND TO SOME EXTENT...TO THE
NORTHEAST...AS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO SPLIT WITH THIS NUMERICAL MODEL
SOLUTION. SO LEAVING CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE...CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

THRU 15Z: AT 11Z THE VSBY DROPPED TO 6SM AND EXPECT IT TO DEGRADE
TO MVFR. HSI/AUH/JYR ARE ALREADY THERE. SATELLITE CONTS TO SHOW
LIFR STRATUS PROGRESSING N. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON IF THE
STRATUS MAKES IT TO GRI. IT IS POSSIBLE.

AFTER 15Z: IT DEPENDS ON THE STRATUS. ANY RESTRICTIVE CIGS/VSBYS
SHOULD DECAY 15Z-17Z. THEN VFR WITH BREEZY S WINDS GUSTING TO 35
MPH. CONFIDENCE: HIGH AFTER 17Z.

TONIGHT: VFR THRU 10Z WITH LLWS DEVELOPING AS DAYTIME GUSTINESS
SUBSIDES. THERE COULD STILL BE AN OCCASIONAL GUST BEFORE 06Z. MVFR
VSBYS COULD DEVELOP IN LIGHT FOG LATE. COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND
WINDSHIFT EXPECTED AROUND 11Z. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ064-076-
     077-086-087.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADO
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB