Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 261045
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
545 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN TODAY WILL CENTER AROUND AREAS OF
DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND THEN DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY...BUT THUNDERSTORMS COULD START
MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BY THIS EVENING...GENERALLY AFTER 7
PM...AND THEN EXPAND EAST INTO OTHER PORTIONS OF OUR CWA LATE
TONIGHT.

FOG...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SHIELD OF HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
ACROSS KANSAS. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THESE HIGH CLOUDS WE HAVE
CLEARED OUT OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND WITH RECENT RAINFALL THE
GROUND IS WET AND DEWPOINTS ARE HIGH. IN ADDITION...THERE IS VERY
LITTLE WIND AND THUS PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS FORMED. IF THE FOG
BECOMES ANYMORE DENSE OR EXPANDS IN COVERAGE WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER
ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY GENERALLY IN THE I-80 CORRIDOR. FOG
SHOULD QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO FULL SUNSHINE A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE RESULTING IN OUR NEXT CONCERN...EXCESSIVE HEAT BY
AFTERNOON.

DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY MID MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING IN THE 90S AND
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S THAT WILL RESULT IN MAX HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 100 TO 105. THE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS AND BEST CHANCE AT
SEEING A HEAT INDEX VALUE OF 105 WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES AND WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY GOING FOR THOSE AREAS. EVEN
IF WE DO NOT SEE A HEAT INDEX VALUE OF 105 IT WILL STILL BE CLOSE.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A N/S ORIENTED SFC TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER WITH KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
EAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL PROBABLY MAKE
IT INTO AT LEAST OUR WESTERN MOST COUNTIES...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON
EXACT PLACEMENT OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS/POSSIBLE MCS AND THUS WILL
GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW RATHER THAN LIKELY POPS. THERE IS ALSO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVENTUALLY
DIMINISH/DIE OUT AS THEY HEAD EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA/CENTRAL KANSAS. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH LOWER POPS
ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES. THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BE WEST OF HWY 281.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

OVERALL FCST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE AS SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND
THEIR TIMING HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST 3 NIGHT SHIFTS. THE
USUAL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TSTM POTENTIAL AS SYNOPTIC FORCING
WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE.

ALOFT: A PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK AS SIGNIFICANT
HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR OVER THE W...WITH A DEEP TROF EVOLVING BY MON
MORNING (HEIGHTS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL). THIS TROF
WILL LIFT NE INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES BY TUE AND TO HUDSON BAY WED-
THU. AS THIS OCCURS...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER
THE SRN PLAINS WILL RETROGRADE TO THE DESERT SW...ESTABLISHING WNW
FLOW HERE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE W AND A TROF OVER THE E.

SURFACE: MON THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. A FAIRLY
STRONG COOL FRONT WILL BE ADVANCING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES. LEE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER MT MON-MON NIGHT WITH STRONG LOW PRES
OCCLUDING OVER THE CAN PRAIRIES TUE. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COOL FRONT
WILL SURGE S AND CROSS THE REGION TUE. HIGH PRES WILL OVERTAKE THE
REGION WED-THU AND THEN DRIFT E INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY FRI-SAT. IT
DOES APPEAR A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BECOME DRAPED ACROSS THE NRN USA
FRI-SAT...AND IT SHOULD EVENTUALLY SINK THRU HERE GIVEN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING.

A FEW DAILY DETAILS...

MON: THE REMNANTS OF WHATEVER HAPPENS SUN NIGHT MAY LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HRS FOR SOME PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND AS LONG AS THAT OCCURS...CONTINUED HOT WITH
MOST LOCATIONS 93-100F. BUT BREEZY SSE WINDS WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF
WHICH WILL HELP FOR AREAS N AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES...WHERE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN.

MORE TSTMS WILL REDEVELOP OUT TO THE W IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
SOME LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MEANDER IN
HERE...BUT THERE IS NOT A ROBUST SIGNAL IN MOST MODELS EXCEPT THE
00Z/06Z NAM WHICH IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE.

TUE: COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE. TSTM POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LIMITED UNTIL
THE DEPTH OF THE COOL AIR INCREASES ENOUGH TO FORCE AIR PARCELS THRU
THE CAP. THAT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 6 PM.

WED-THU: A REFRESHING BREAK FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. DRY OVER S-
CNTRL NEB AND PROBABLY DRY OVER N-CNTRL KS...ALTHOUGH THE EC/GFS/GEM
HINT AT TSTMS OVER KS. BELIEVE THE FRONT WILL TAKE THEM FAR ENOUGH S
THAT N-CNTRL KS WILL NOT BE AFFECTED.

FRI-SAT: TEMPS RETURN BACK TO NORMAL (MID 80S-MID 90S). HIGHER DWPTS
RETURN IN S FLOW. DON`T HAVE A GOOD FEEL FOR TSTM POTENTIAL...BUT IT
APPEARS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE WIND REMAIN VERY LIGHT TO CALM EARLY THIS MORNING AND WITH
THE RECENT RAINFALL WE HAVE SEEN SOME FOG ALONG WITH LOW CEILINGS.
THESE IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BURN OFF TODAY BY 8 OR
9 AM. THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE GENERAL
PREVAILING DIRECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THINGS DRY TODAY...BUT WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF VICINITY
THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE EVENING AS STORM TRY TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE WIND COULD
BE ERRATIC IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NEZ063-064-075>077-084>087.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY



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