Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 241008
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
408 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

ALOFT: THE NEWLY REESTABLISHED LONGWAVE TROF AXIS WAS SHIFTING E
OF THE FCST AREA. BACK TO NW FLOW THRU TONIGHT. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROF TO AFFECT THE FCST AREA WAS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS TROF
WILL PASS THRU HERE TONIGHT WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS.

SURFACE: THE FCST AREA WAS IN THE COLD SECTOR OF DEEP LOW PRES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. WE WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD
SECTOR THRU TONIGHT. WRN USA HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
WITH CYCLONIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMING ANTICYCLONIC. ITS RIDGE
AXIS WILL PASS THRU AFTER MIDNIGHT. A CLIPPER WILL FORM OVER WRN
CANADA TONIGHT AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION.

NOW: TEMPS CONT STRUGGLING TO DROP. TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. SO LOW TEMPS WERE RAISED SVRL DEGS
FROM THE 4 PM FCST.

EARLY THIS MORNING: LOTS OF WRAP AROUND CLOUDS IN CYCLONIC NW
FLOW.

TODAY: CONTINUED WINDY. NW WINDS WILL GUST 30-35 KTS IN DOWNWARD
TRANSFER AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES UNSTABLE. POTENTIAL PEAK
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 38 KTS PER BUFKIT MIXING ALGORITHM. USED GFS WITH
ITS DEEPER MIXING.

THE RAP/NAM/GFS AGREE THE WRN FRINGE OF THE WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E OF THE FCST AREA LEAVING SKIES SUNNY.
SIMULATED IR IMAGERY FROM THE 4 KM NAM NEST SUGGESTS SOME PATCHES
OF CIRROSTRATUS WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE NW LATE AND THIS
IS REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE...WITH THE NRN ROCKIES
SHORTWAVE TROF DIVING TO OUR W.

INTERNAL VERIFICATION SHOWS WE HAVE BEEN RUNNING TOO COOL ON HIGH
TEMPS RECENTLY. SO USED 06Z RAP TO NUDGE TEMPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY.
HIGHS WILL STILL BE 5-10F COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

TONIGHT: WINDS DROP OFF EARLY EVENING WITH DECOUPLING. PATCHES OF
CIRROSTRATUS CONT TO DRIFT THRU BUT SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN
P/CLOUDY.

USED THE WEIGHTED CONSENSUS OF THE 3 BEST-VERIFYING TEMP GUIDES
FOR LOWS...WHICH FAVORED THE COLDER MOS TEMPS. JUST SLIGHTLY
COLDER THAN NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE BIG HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS FAST APPROACHING AND NO TRAVEL PROBLEMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. ALWAYS REMEMBER YOU CAN
CHECK WWW.WEATHER.GOV FOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND FORECAST
FOR ANYWHERE IN THE COUNTRY WHERE YOU MIGHT BE TRAVELING TO THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR OUR AREA DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL
CENTER AROUND SEVERAL BIG TEMPERATURE SWINGS.

TUESDAY...THIS SHOULD BE A WARMER DAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WIND OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE GENTLE
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE THAT WILL HELP TO WARM HIGHS INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST NEBRASKA ZONES TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KANSAS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
THE 00Z GFS TRYING TO BRING THE NEXT COLD FRONT INTO NEBRASKA ZONES
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME SPRINKLES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR. HOWEVER...THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS ARE BOTH SLOWER WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND ARE DRY. THIS FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE ECMWF/NAM
SOLUTION.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR
REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A FLURRY OR
TWO...BUT GIVEN MOST FORECAST MODELS ARE COMPLETELY DRY...WE WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND WITHHOLD ANY FLURRIES FOR NOW. FORECAST
MODELS ARE NOT AS COLD WITH THIS AIRMASS AS THEY WERE SEVERAL DAYS
AGO AND EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD STILL REACH THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ZONES TO THE MID 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

THANKSGIVING...UNFORTUNATELY THE HOLIDAY ITSELF APPEARS TO THE BE
COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND AS THE COOLER AIR THAT SETTLES IN ON
WEDNESDAY MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
HOWEVER...FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WARMER AND SO WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF OUR FORECAST HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING DAY EVENTUALLY
GET RAISED SOME. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE OVERALL
SUPERBLEND OF MODELS...WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS IN THE MID 30S IN THE
TRI-CITIES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S OVER NORTHERN KANSAS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
WITH THE REAL COLD AIR BOXED UP IN CANADA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE
STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN FRIDAY BEING A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGHS
LIKELY AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITIES TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH JUST A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. SATURDAY IS
MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON OUR DOOR STEP. THE LATEST
00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND INDICATES THAT HIGHS ON
SATURDAY MAY BE EVEN WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY POSSIBLY REACHING INTO
THE 60S...BUT THE 00Z GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
WOULD HAVE TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 30S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CURRENTLY SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE WITH A
HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE REALLY DOES NOT
IMPROVE MUCH ON SUNDAY AS THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW
COLD THE NEXT AIR MASS WILL BE. THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF HAVE BOTH
TRENDED DOWNWARD AND WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S ON SUNDAY
WHILE OUR FORECAST STILL IS INCORPORATING RECENT RUNS THAT WERE
WARMER AND IS CALLING FOR HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
BASICALLY...EXPECT FORECAST CHANGES IN THE COMING DAYS AS THE
UNCERTAINTY ISSUES GET IRONED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MON NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

OVERNIGHT: VARIABLE MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 4-10K
FT. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A TEMPO MVFR CEILING BETWEEN
2500-3000 FT...ESPECIALLY AT GRI. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. NW WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE IN SPEEDS
AND GUSTS. DURING TIMES WHEN WINDS DECREASE TO 10-15 KTS...SOME
LLWS IS PROBABLE. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 KTS AT
TIMES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

MON: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CIGS WILL DIMINISH WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
DURING THE MORNING HRS. NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

MON EVE: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS CIGS INVADING. NW WINDS DIMINISH
AND SETTLE AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



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