Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 011138
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
638 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER THE PAST 2 HRS AND THE LINE OF
SHWRS IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES HWY 183. HOWEVER...
WE HAVE NOTED A SLGT UPTICK IN REFLECTIVITY WITH SOME NEW SHWRS
BTWN NRN-HLC OVER N-CNTRL KS. WE`LL BE MAKING SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SHORT-TERM POPS OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HRS HERE
SHORTLY. THUNDER HAS ALSO BEEN WITHDRAWN FROM THE FCST THRU 20Z.

A QUICK LOOK AT THE 06Z NAM SUGGESTS A CAP WILL MINIMIZE TSTM
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD PREFER TO KEEP MENTION OF RAIN OUT
OF THE FCST AFTER MORNING SPRINKLES/SHWRS ARE GONE. SUGGEST
READING THE FCST AS AN 80% CHANCE OF STAYING DRY AT ANY ONE
LOCATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALOFT: BROAD/LOW AMPLITUDE WSW FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS THRU TONIGHT. A PV STREAMER EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY WSW
THRU THE DAKOTAS TO SRN CA. THERE WERE A COUPLE EMBEDDED VERY WEAK
PV ANOMALIES...BUT IT`S ARGUABLE IF THEY WILL HAVE ANY INFLUENCE
ON SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY. ONE IS FCST TO MOVE THRU EARLY THIS EVE AND
THE OTHER TOWARD DAWN WED.

SURFACE: THE TAIL END OF A WEAK PAC COOL FRONT BISECTED CNTRL NEB
INTO NW KS. FRONTOLYSIS WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH THE FCST AREA
BASICALLY REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE
ERN USA AND THE LEE TROF JUST TO THE W.

TODAY: GIVEN MINIMAL SYNOPTIC FORCING...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN
WHAT TRANSPIRES WITH THIS SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY. CURRENT EXPECTATION
IS THAT IT WILL WEAKEN/DISSIPATE THIS MORNING LEAVING PLENTY OF
MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. HOWEVER...SKIES WILL AVERAGE
P/CLOUDY...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO WARM CLOSE TO WHAT OCCURRED
YESTERDAY. HIGHS ARE LARGELY CONTINUITY WITH THE PRVS FCST...BUT
DID LOWER A COUPLE DEGS S OF HWY 6.

BREEZY S WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KTS.

AS FAR AS RAIN POTENTIAL TODAY...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH. JUST NOT
ENOUGH FORCING.

TONIGHT: P-M/CLOUDY AND MILD. BREEZY AT TIMES. LOWS CLOSE TO 10F
ABOVE NORMAL. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...A FEW TSTMS WILL PROBABLY
ERUPT WELL W OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PROBABLY NOT
ENOUGH ACTIVITY TO FORM A COLD POOL AND MAKE IT E INTO THE FCST
AREA. A 40 KT LOW-LVL JET IS FCST TO REDEVELOP. MODEL QPF
CLUSTERING AND THE 12 HR QPF PROBABILITIES FROM THE 03Z SREF MEAN
SUGGEST THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE OVER
ERN NEB AT THE TERMINUS OF THE LLJ. BUT THERE IS A CHANCE WRN EDGE
OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.

FOR WHAT LITTLE TSTM ACTIVITY MIGHT DEVELOP THRU TONIGHT...AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS ATTM.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

OVERVIEW...AFTER NUMEROUS DRY DAYS...PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL FINALLY START TO SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THOSE CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE RATHER LOW. AT
THIS POINT DO NOT SEE ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ABOVE 20 TO 30
PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS THROUGH SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND LABOR
DAY IF RATHER LOW. LABOR DAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER IF THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING OR IT
COULD BE YET ONE MORE HOT DAY IF THE FRONT IS SLOW IN GETTING
HERE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE
MUCH WITH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MID TO
LATE WEEK THAT WILL EVER SO SLOWLY EDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY SUNDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL ALSO MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONSEQUENTLY
...WE CAN EXPECT CONTINUED WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING OUR
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE ONLY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON WEAK SUBTLE LITTLE
DISTURBANCES RIDING UP THROUGH THE PLAINS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. SOME FORECAST MODELS
INDICATE PERIODS OF ISOLATED CONVECTION AND OTHERS DO NOT.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THESE SUBTLE LITTLE WAVES MORE THAN A DAY OR
TWO OUT IS NOT OVERLY HIGH. OVERALL...MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD MOST IN
QUESTION AS A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SWING THROUGH ONCE THE
MAIN UPPER WAVE ENTERS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...BUT TOO FAR
OUT TO NAIL DOWN AREAS THAT WILL BE MOST FAVORED DUE TO TIMING
QUESTIONS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED THINGS
DOWN AND THE COLD FRONT MAY NOT EVEN COME THROUGH UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT IN SOME AREAS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MONDAY BEING
POTENTIALLY ONE LAST WARM/HOT DAY BEFORE THE COOLER WEATHER MOVES
IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WED MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SIGNIFICANT WX ISSUES: LLWS ENDING 14Z AND THEN AGAIN TONIGHT.

NO CROSSWIND ISSUES THRU TONIGHT ON GRI RWY17 AND EAR RWY18.

TODAY: LLWS ENDS BY 14Z. VFR WITH MULTI-LAYERED SCT TO
OCCASIONALLY BKN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 11K FT. THERE COULD BE A
COUPLE CLOUDS AROUND 7-8K FT BEFORE 17Z. S WINDS INCREASE AND GUST
20-25 KTS AFTER 17Z. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: VFR. SCT CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 12K FT. S WINDS DIMINISH TO
AROUND 10 KTS. LLWS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



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