Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 161738

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1238 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Showers and thunderstorms have moved out of the forecast area this
morning, but there are some more to the west of the forecast area
that could be moving into the area toward morning. The cold front
has made it through about half of the forecast area this morning.

The front will continue to move to the southeast through the
remainder of the forecast area. It should exit the area around mid
day. The thunderstorms in western Nebraska should arrive in the
northwest part of the forecast area around day break. Models are
taking the most of them to the north of the area, but there could be
a few that make it into the north.

The next question for the day will be thunderstorms for this
afternoon. Most of the models develop a few thunderstorms behind the
front and in the eastern part of the forecast area since the front
will be to the east and south. Have kept some mainly small PoPs in
the east for the afternoon, but have a little uncertainty whether
they will be in this area, or to the east.

Temperatures today are also in question. There will be lower clouds
across the area through mid day and with the cold advection the
temperatures will be quite a bit cooler. There will likely be a
pretty good temperature gradient across the area, but just where it
will be is somewhat of a question.

Have continued some low PoPs in the south/southeast tonight. This is
also in question. There could be a few that make it into the area,
but most of the models move precipitation out of the area late

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

The cooler air continues across the area on Sunday. There could be a
few showers or thunderstorms in the south on Sunday, but there is an
upper level wave approaching Sunday night and the chances increase.
This appears to be the best chance for some precipitation during the
period. The thunderstorms will continue into Monday, but should be
moving out of the area Monday afternoon or evening.

Tuesday through Wednesday night should be a quiet period. There is
southwest flow and there is a cold front that moves through the
area. Tuesday will be warm ahead of the front, then behind the cold
front temperatures will be cooler for Wednesday.

Thursday and Thursday night there are a couple of weak upper level
waves and some small, spotty chances for precipitation. On Friday
there is another wave that moves into the area along with a cold
front. There will be a chance for some thunderstorms mainly Friday


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Sunday)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Both terminals are near the edge of MVFR stratus this afternoon.
While clearing is only miles to the west...continued cloud
development across the same area should result in MVFR conditions
persisting for the next several hours. There is some question in
how much MVFR stratus to the west will also encroach on the
terminals this evening...but as the surface high moves in an winds
diminish this evening...model guidance is indicating mostly clear
skies will likely evolve. So...expect MVFR conditions through the
late afternoon or early evening hours before VFR CIGS and light
winds settle in overnight.




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