Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 250537

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1237 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Aside from the potential for low clouds and fog tonight and a
chance for thunderstorms Tuesday, the weather is actually pretty
quiet for the next seven days.

Upper ridging across the Central Plains will break down Tuesday with
the progression of a shortwave trough translating across our region.
Surface high pressure in the upper midwest will continue to migrate
east thru tonight while a low pressure trough deepens along the high
plains. Increasing southerly flow will draw moisture north with sfc
dewpoints progged to reach the lower and middle 50s by daybreak.
Models suggest the development of stratus and fog with the
moisture return during the overnight hours with models suggesting
the lowest visibilities and the potential for dense fog across our
western zones. Have went with areas of fog in the west and patchy
fog farther east and will need to monitor trends through the night
for headline needs. Forecast soundings indicate fairly deep
lowlevel moisture by morning and would not be surprised to see
some drizzle but did not include in forecast attm.

Thunderstorm chances increase across our eastern zones Tuesday
afternoon in the warm air advection regime ahead of the approaching
shortwave trough. There is some uncertainty in the extent and the
duration of the low cloud cover from the morning hours which would
limit instability. Models are fairly consistent with placing our
southeast zones along the instability axis with 2000 to 2500 j/kg of
CAPE and shear at times near 30kts and given this there is a window
for the potential for a strong to severe storm in the late
aftn/early evening with hail/wind the main hazards.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Chances for thunderstorms continue Thursday evening and into the
first part of Thursday night in enhanced lift along/ahead of the
surface boundary and as the shortwave trough moves through. Again
the better chances for rain exist across our southeast zones while
our western counties may not see any rain at all.

The cold frontal boundary scours moisture to the southeast heading
into Wednesday with dry but breezy/windy conditions forecast as high
pressure builds south behind the front. The increase in insolation
and mixing will offset the slightly cooler airmass and temps are
forecast to reach the 70s for highs.

There is just not a whole lot to say about the long term periods with
dry and mild Fall conditions forecast. The upper ridge axis will
rebuild onto the Central Plains Thursday, then a weak clipper will
back in some cooler air into the first part of the weekend then
heights rise again with ridging across the interior CONUS Sunday
into Monday. At this time Monday/Halloween is shaping up to be dry
and mild with daytime highs remaining above normal in the 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Main concern in this TAF period comes early this morning, mainly
affecting the KEAR terminal, with the potential for some low level
stratus/fog. Models are in pretty good agreement keeping better
chances west of KGRI, so have VFR conditions there throughout the
period. Models suggest that KEAR may be on the eastern fringe of
stratus/fog, so confidence in exactly how it evolves is not the
highest. Do have 5SM/BKN005 going for a few hours, with VFR
conditions then returning. Preciptiation chances later today look
to develop east of both terminal areas, so kept any mention out.




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