Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 210218
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
918 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AFTER FURTHER INVESTIGATION OF CLOUD COVER AND SATELLITE
TRENDS...FELT NECESSARY TO ONCE AGAIN SLIGHTLY LOWER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND EXPAND THE AREA OF PATCHY FROST.
DEWPOINTS ARE HOLDING STRONG SO OUR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
NOT BE TOO FAR OFF AT THIS POINT...AND SINCE NO DRIER AIR WILL
ADVECT IN TONIGHT AM CONFIDENT IN HOLDING OFF ON A FROST
ADVISORY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE SEEING THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR FROST WILL BE LIMITED...AND HENCE WILL REMAIN PATCHY IN NATURE
FOR THE MOST PART BEFORE SUNRISE. AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT TRENDS
TONIGHT...AND HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF FROM ISSUING ANY HEADLINE FOR
OUR OUTLOOK AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 737 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT FOR MOSTLY WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPANDED THE
PATCHY FROST POTENTIAL AS WELL. THE FROST POTENTIAL COULD VERY
WELL END UP BEING MORE WIDESPREAD IF CLOUD COVERS BREAKS EVEN
FASTER. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE NOT ALL THAT
FAR FROM FROST AS THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS KANSAS ARE
FORECAST AT 40 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
OUTLOOK AREA AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE REALIZED...SO CLOUD COVER
WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN OVERALL FROST POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION AROUND...THE TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE.

THE FIRST CONCERN FOR THE EVENING ARE THE CONTINUING SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING IN THE PAST HOUR AND MOSTLY
JUST TRACE AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SHOULD END AS THE
SUN GOES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA. THE NAM BRINGS
IT DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS HAS IT A LITTLE
FURTHER TO THE WEST. EITHER WAY...WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. THE BACK
EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS STILL IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND HAS BEEN SLOW TO
MOVE TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN SOME THIN
SPOTS OR EVEN A SMALL BREAK OR TWO...THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR IN THE COLD TEMPERATURES IS
THE MOISTURE. WITH ON AND OFF PRECIPITATION TODAY...THE DEW POINTS
ARE STILL AROUND 40 DEGREES. IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE MORE TO GET THE
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF WITH THE MOISTURE. ALL THAT BEING
SAID...WILL KEEP SOME PATCHY FROST FURTHER NORTH IN THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THERE
WILL BE SUNSHINE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

IN SHORT...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH ALMOST
THIS ENTIRE 6-DAY PERIOD INCLUDING THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND...WITH EVERY SINGLE DAY AND NIGHT FEATURING AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. OF COURSE...THE
ODDS OF IT ACTUALLY RAINING AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION EACH AND EVERY
DAY/NIGHT IS NOT VERY HIGH...BUT AT LEAST A HANDFUL OF RAINY
PERIODS ARE LIKELY...AND IT IS JUST IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT TO
TRY FINDING ANY FORECAST PERIODS WHERE AT LEAST A SLIGHT POP IS
NOT WARRANTED. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...THEY ARE
ESSENTIALLY ZERO TO VERY LITTLE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. BEYOND THAT...IT IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT AT LEAST A FEW LOW- END...MARGINAL TO SLIGHT
RISK TYPE OF SEVERE SETUPS COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME EVIDENT MAINLY
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD...BUT AGREE WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY
4-8 OUTLOOK THAT PREDICTABILITY IS JUST TOO LOW/UNCERTAINTY JUST
TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT TO "HIGHLIGHT" ANY PARTICULAR TIME
FRAME...AS NONE OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS APPEAR OVERLY
STRONG AT THIS POINT. IN OTHER WORDS...PINNING DOWN SEVERE WEATHER
PROSPECTS FROM SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL PROBABLY
END UP BEING MORE OF A "TAKE IT 1 OR 2 DAYS AT A TIME" AFFAIR.

WITH ALL THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT MUCH
OF THE CWA HAS RELATIVELY SATURATED SOILS AND AT LEAST MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES ARE ALREADY EVIDENT SUCH AS ALONG THE PLATTE
RIVER...OBVIOUSLY THE HYDRO SITUATION WILL NEED CLOSELY
MONITORED...ESPECIALLY IF ANY WIDESPREAD 1-2+ INCH RAINFALL
EVENTS MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER...IT/S JUST TOO HARD TO SAY WHETHER OR
NOT FLOODING WILL BECOME MUCH OF AN ISSUE BEYOND THE PLATTE RIVER
GIVEN THE TREMENDOUS DAY-TO-DAY CONVECTIVE UNCERTAINTY. FOR MORE
DETAILS SPECIFICALLY REGARDING THE PLATTE RIVER...PLEASE REFER TO
THE SEPARATE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

TEMPERATURE-WISE THROUGH THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...NOT SURPRISINGLY WITH
THE MULTITUDE OF RAIN CHANCES...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR NEAR TO
BELOW AVERAGE/NORMAL READINGS...ESPECIALLY RIGHT AWAY ON FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. AT LEAST FOR NOW...FRIDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE OVERALL-
COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
POTENTIALLY ONLY INTO THE 50S...WITH 60S THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
SATURDAY BEFORE MAINLY 70S THEREAFTER. AGAIN THOUGH...UNCERTAINTY
QUICKLY GROWS BEYOND THIS WEEKEND AND WE COULD EASILY SEE 5+
DEGREE UPWARD/DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS WITH TIME.

WITH THE MAIN POINTS COVERED...HERE IS A BIT MORE DAY-TO-DAY
DETAIL IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS...

THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT: FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA (ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST COUNTIES)...THIS IS ABOUT THE ONLY LONG TERM
PERIOD THAT CARRIES A DECENT CHANCE OF STAYING DRY. IN FACT...AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AREA-WIDE...BEFORE THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS BRINGS IN AT LEAST A MODEST CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/3 OF THE CWA LATE IN THE
NIGHT. WITH INSTABILITY ALMOST NIL...OPTED TO PULL OUT THE
PREVIOUS MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER. TEMP-WISE...INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST BREEZES SHOULD KEEP ALL AREAS SAFELY ABOVE
FROST CONCERNS...WITH MOST OF THE CWA AIMED BETWEEN 42-47.

FRIDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT
MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT PASSES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CWA MAINLY
DURING THE DAY...SPREADING FAIRLY DECENT RAIN CHANCES INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY BEFORE NOON. THE AFTERNOON RAIN
CHANCES ARE LESS LIKELY...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
DRIZZLE/SPOTTY SHOWERS. KEPT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS MAY BE ON SHAKY GROUND WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCES FOR NON-SEVERE STORMS POTENTIALLY ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT AS AT LEAST LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY RETURNS. NUDGED
DOWN HIGH TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES...AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH...BUT
HAVE THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA ONLY REACHING 55-60 DEGREES...WHICH
COULD BE OPTIMISTIC IF WE ARE SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS ALL DAY.

SATURDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE NEXT IN A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SERIES OF
MID LEVEL IMPULSES LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FAVORING THE NIGHT HOURS
VERSUS THE DAY. MAY HAVE TO START WATCHING FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BY THIS TIME AS WELL.

SUNDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM
A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES THAT CONTAINS VARIOUS...HARD-TO-
TIME EMBEDDED WAVES. 30-50 POPS CONTINUE ALL AREAS.

MONDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: ALTHOUGH IT CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
"WASHOUT"...ITS IMPOSSIBLE TO GUARANTEE A DRY/STORM-FREE MEMORIAL
DAY WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. MAINLY 20-40
POPS FOR NOW.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-WEDNESDAY DAYTIME: THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE FLOW
BECOMES A BIT MORE QUASI-ZONAL AND A BIT WEAKER ALOFT AS THE MAIN
UPPER JET SUPPORT SHIFTS AWAY...BUT IF ANYTHING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LEVELS AND INSTABILITY LEVELS MAY INCREASE VERSUS
PREVIOUS DAYS SO 20-40 POPS CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGHOUT THE
VALID TAF PERIOD.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
FOG TO DEVELOP LATER AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE
HIGH WILL BE NEARLY CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS TO BE REALIZED ACROSS THE TERMINALS...SO IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND EXACTLY HOW FAST
WE CAN CLEAR OUT. AS OF NOW...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH CLOUD COVER AROUND NEAR SUNRISE TO SUPPRESS ANY VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AND THUS CHANGES TO FLIGHT CATEGORICAL CONDITIONS
OTHER THAN VFR.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...THE SAME TWO PLATTE RIVER FLOOD WARNING
SEGMENTS THAT WE HAVE HAD OUT FOR A FEW DAYS NOW CONTINUE...ONE
GENERALLY COVERING THE REACH OF THE RIVER FROM GOTHENBURG-
LEXINGTON...AND THE OTHER COVERING THE STRETCH FROM NEAR KEARNEY-
DONIPHAN. AS EXPECTED...KNOWN IMPACTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MAINLY
LIMITED TO MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING ALONG THE RIVER. IF ANYTHING HAS
POTENTIALLY CHANGED IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...IT IS THAT UNCERTAINTY
HAS GROWN REGARDING JUST HOW LONG PORTIONS OF THE PLATTE WITHIN
OUR CWA COULD REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE...PARTIALLY DUE TO
RECENT UPSTREAM RAINFALL THAT COULD BRING A SMALLER SECONDARY
CREST...AND ALSO DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL RAIN
WILL FALL FRIDAY AND BEYOND WITHIN/NEAR THE LOCAL PLATTE BASIN.
THIS LATEST ROUND OF FORECASTS AS INITIALIZED BY THE MISSOURI
BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER (MBRFC) SUGGESTS THAT THE DAWSON
COUNTY PORTION OF THE RIVER COULD START SLIPPING SLIGHTLY BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...WHILE THE
KEARNEY-AREA PORTION OF THE RIVER COULD POTENTIALLY REMAIN IN
MINOR FLOOD WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...AT THE "GRAND ISLAND
GAUGE" ALONG THE HALL-HAMILTON COUNTY LINE...THE RIVER IS STILL
NOT EXPECTED TO BREACH OFFICIAL FLOOD STAGE OF 6.5 FEET...BUT
COULD COME QUITE CLOSE BEFORE THE WEEKEND IS OVER...WITH A
FORECAST CREST OF 6.3 FEET THIS WEEKEND.

IN CLOSING AND IN SUMMARY...ALTHOUGH ANY PLATTE RIVER FLOODING
WITHIN MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA OVER THE COMING DAYS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINOR...THERE CONTINUES TO BE PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY WHEN THE RIVER WILL SOLIDLY DROP
BACK BELOW OFFICIAL FLOOD STAGES OVER THE COMING DAYS. STAY TUNED
TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS IN THIS FLUID SITUATION (PUN
INTENDED).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUERRERO
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...GUERRERO
HYDROLOGY...PFANNKUCH


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