Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 302132
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
332 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...THE FIRST DECENT PRECIP EVENT IN WEEKS IS ON DECK AND HAS LOTS
OF UNCERTAINTY ON RAIN VS SNOW AND HOW MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATES...

ALOFT: SPLIT FLOW WAS OVER THE CONUS WITH NW FLOW FROM CANADA
INTO THE ERN USA TROF...AND A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SW. THE
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY CREEP E OF THE
REGION WITH SW FLOW DEVELOPING. A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NW SAT NIGHT. THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF
OUR WX WILL BE THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRENGTHENING 140 KT JET
ON THE TROPOPAUSE AND THE ASSOCIATED MASS ADJUSTMENTS.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WAS DEPARTING THE REGION AND WILL HEAD INTO
THE ERN USA WITH RETURN FLOW HERE IN ITS WAKE. MEANWHILE...AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SAG S AND CROSS THE FCST AREA SAT NIGHT. A
WEAK COLORADO LOW WILL ALSO ADVANCE E ACROSS KS SAT NIGHT AND WILL
BE LOCATED NEAR KS CITY AT DAWN SUN.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: CLOUDY AND MILD. TEMPS HAVE RISEN NICELY
DESPITE THICK CLOUD COVER. SPRINKLES/PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
INVADING FROM THE SW. HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED REPORTS FROM GLD/DDC.

WHAT FOLLOWS BELOW ARE CURRENT EXPECTATIONS BASED ON
INTERPRETATION OF AVAILABLE FCST GUIDANCE. PLEASE ALLOW US ROOM
FOR ADJUSTMENTS AS THEY WILL BE NECESSARY AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS.

TONIGHT: THE SPRINKLES/PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONT BLOSSOMING
INTO A BROAD SHIELD OF RAIN AND EXPAND TO THE N. YOU SEE IT ON
RADAR. WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THIS IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND AT 3
PM...THE COLUMN EVENTUALLY SATURATES. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD
REMAIN S OF I-80.

THIS SHIELD OF PRECIP IS DRIVEN BY WAA/MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS IN
THE JET ENTRANCE REGION.

PRECIP-TYPE ALGORITHMS AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST IT IS WARM
ENOUGH TO START AS RAIN...BUT WE HAVE SEEN MULTIPLE RUNS FROM THE
NAM AND ITS 4 KM NEST SUGGEST WETBULB COOLING WILL RESULT IN A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND THIS IS A CONCERN. GEARED THE FCST MORE
TOWARD SNOW AFTER 12 AM. IT WILL HAVE TO COME DOWN HARD TO
ACCUMULATE.

SAT: THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD WILL HEAD INTO SE NEB/NE KS BUT SNOW
OR A R/S MIX PROBABLY LINGERS HERE INTO THE MORNING. DO WE GET A
BREAK OR DOES ITS W EDGE KEEP PRECIP GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON? WE
HAVE SEEN INDICATIONS THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD COULD EXIT TO THE E
IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE ON THIS. IF PRECIP DOES LINGER...
INTENSITY WILL PROBABLY DECREASE.

IF PRECIP DOES CHANGE TO SNOW...IT COULD/WILL CHANGE BACK TO RAIN
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING DEPENDING ON LOCATION. ANOTHER PLAYER
IS PRECIP INTENSITY. IT COULD BE SNOW WITHIN HEAVIER PRECIP
ELEMENTS AND BE A R/S MIX OR RAIN OTHERWISE.

IF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT...HOW MUCH ACCUMULATES INTO
THE MORNING WHERE IT PERSISTS?

FOR NOW...WE HAVE A WIDESPREAD 1-2" IN THE FCST...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 2" FROM HWY 281 E OVER S-CNTRL NEB. HIGHER AMTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

ONE WEAKNESS IN THIS FCST: WE MAY BE INDICATING TOO MUCH PRECIP
POTENTIAL W AND N OF THE TRI-CITIES. THESE AREAS MAY SEE VERY
LITTLE OUT OF THIS.

SAT NIGHT: THE APPROACHING TROF INDUCES WEAK CYCLOGENESIS AND A
COMMAHEAD BEGINS TO FORM SAT NIGHT. WITH THE MID-LVL LOW CROSSING
THE FCST AREA. THIS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A LITTLE SNOW
ACCUM WILL PROBABLY OCCUR N OF I-80 INTO THE SANDHILLS. COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL COOL THE COLUMN FOR SNOW.

BECOMING WINDY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN A BURST OF STRONG CAA.

UNCERTAINTY: PLEASE KEEP IN MIND PART OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE ON
THE NRN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THIS IS ALWAYS AN AREA OF GREAT
UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE THE CUT-OFF BETWEEN PRECIP-NO PRECIP IS SHARP.

ALSO OF CONCERN IS PRECIP TYPE. THE TEMP PROFILE IS VERY MARGINAL
AND PRECIP TYPES ARE NOT CLEAR CUT. WE ARE UNABLE TO PINPOINT IF
IT WILL SNOW...AND IF IT DOES HOW LONG IT WILL LAST. IF WE DO GET
AN AREA THAT CHANGES OVER TONIGHT AND SOMEHOW IT REMAINS INTO SAT
MORNING...IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE A SWATH OF UP TO 4 INCHES
FOR PART OF THE FCST AREA. IF THIS OCCURS...GREATEST RISK WOULD BE
S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES.

PLEASE WATCH FOR FCST UPDATES AND UPDATES VIA SOCIAL MEDIA AS THIS
EVENT UNFOLDS.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PRIMARILY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH
MULTIPLE...QUICK PASSING...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES HAVING MINIMAL
IMPACT ON THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN. AS A CONSEQUENCE...EXPECT
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
FLUCTUATING AROUND NORMAL THANKS TO MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS BEING
STEERED ACROSS THE REGION.

STARTING OFF SUNDAY...EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO
BE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BY MID MORNING...WITH ENOUGH FORCING TO JUSTIFY THE CONTINUED
MENTION FOR A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WHILE SOME CLEARING SHOULD BE NOTED BY LATE AFTERNOON...EVEN
SO...WITH A LITTLE BIT OF FRESH SNOW COVER AND A VERY COLD AIRMASS
SETTLING IN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...EXPECT A COOL AFTERNOON WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS IN SPOTS.
ALONG WITH THESE COOL READINGS...EXPECT A FAIRLY STIFF
NORTHWESTERLY WIND THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH WILL MAKE IT
FEEL BLUSTERY.

THEREAFTER...EXPECT AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AFTER DARK SUNDAY EVENING
...AND WITH THE VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...FOR NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TO BE REALIZED ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...WENT
AHEAD AND LOWERED MONDAY MORNING TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS...WHICH WILL MARK THE
COOLEST MORNING READINGS IN ABOUT 3 WEEKS. THEN...AS THIS SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST...SOUTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND TO START
THE WEEK. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW COVER TO HELP MODIFY
AFTERNOON TEMPS A BIT...STILL THINK THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
PRECEDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING...WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A RETURN TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH 50S AND LOWER 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE THEN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING THE NEXT
COLD FRONT RAPIDLY SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN USHER IN A
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MID WEEK. WHILE
NOT BITTERLY COLD...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. EVEN
THOUGH THIS COOLER AIRMASS SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL
MODELED...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE A LITTLE MORE IFFY AS THE
EC KEEPS ANY PRECIP MAINLY TO OUR NORTH...AND THE GFS IS
TRANSITIONING A LIGHT FRONTAL BAND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...FELT A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SNOW GIVEN BY MODEL BLEND DID NOT NEED TO BE TAMPERED
WITH FOR THE TIME BEING. WESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK...WHICH SHOULD MARK A REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO END THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SAT AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: VFR WITH THICK CIRROSTRATUS OVC 20K FT.
MULTI-LAYERED CIGS WILL INVADE FROM THE SW 7-12K FT. S WINDS WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO AROUND 20 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR MID-LVL CIGS WILL DESCEND TO AROUND 5K FT WITH PATCHY
-RA MOVING IN. CONDS SHOULD DECAY TO MVFR AS STEADIER -RA LIFTS N.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RA TO CHANGE OVER TO IFR SNOW PRIOR TO 12Z.
S WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE
THE N EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OCCURS. ALSO DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON
TYPE OF PRECIP.

SAT THRU 18Z: IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -SN. S WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS.
CONFIDENCE: LOW ON CIGS/VSBYS. SN COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE BACK TO
RA AFTER 16Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



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