Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 072028 CCA
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
328 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS HAVE SOME CUMULUS ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THE
CUMULUS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS TONIGHT AND LEAVE MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF QUICKLY AS THE SUN GOES DOWN AND ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE.

ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE STARTS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES
BUT REMAINS ON THE HIGH PLAINS. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT EXPECT THEM TO STAY TO THE
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START
THE LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY
SATURDAY TEMPERATURES RETURN BACK TO THE 90S FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS...AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THIS FORECAST SHOULD BE DRY.

FOCUSING ON THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE HAVE
A DECENT CHANCE AT SEEING SOME RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE EC...GFS AND SREF ALL SPREAD A QPF FIELD OVER THE AREA
BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONE OUTLIER IS THE
NAM...WHICH KEEPS A MAJORITY OF THE QPF TO OUR SOUTH. THE PATTERN
ALOFT HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE
CONUS...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OVER THE LONG TERM
EVENTUALLY CONSUMING THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN CONUS. WE WILL HAVE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA WHILE THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN...AND A WEAK PERTURBATION WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE WITHIN THAT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS IS REALLY THE MAIN FEATURE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS WE LACK FORCING. OVERALL WE LACK INSTABILITY AS
WELL...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH AROUND TO GET SOME THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP. THE GFS IS THE MORE ROBUST WITH CAPE VALUES RANGING
FROM A COUPLE HUNDRED TO AROUND 2500 J/KG MUCAPE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SO WILL MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS VERY LIMITED AT THIS TIME. BEYOND
FRIDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

ONE THING TO NOTE FOR SUNDAY WILL BE HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM
ABOUT 99 TO 102 WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO LOWER LIMIT OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA WHICH IS 105. THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...BUT IT WILL ONLY
TAKE A FEW DEGREES TO MAKE THIS DAY A CONCERN FOR HEAT ACROSS OUR
KANSAS COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AN AREA OF SOME CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED.
THESE ARE AROUND OR JUST ABOVE MVFR CONDITIONS. DURING THE
AFTERNOON THEY SHOULD LIFT A LITTLE AND THEN CONTINUE TO BE VFR.
THEY WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNDOWN. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...GUERRERO
AVIATION...JCB



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