Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 221132

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
532 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 246 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

It`s a cold morning today with temperatures in the teens and 20s
and those coldest temperatures were located across our eastern
zones under the center of the surface ridge. After our cold
start, temperatures will be on the upswing today as the surface
ridge axis migrates southeast and upper ridging expands east of
the Rockies allowing warmer air to advect onto the plains. While high
cloud cover filters south, clouds are not expected to have an
impact on afternoon temperatures. The dry weather will be
maintained tonight with temps remaining above freezing for lows.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Thanksgiving Day is still looking very nice weatherwise.
Temperatures will be well above normal with the pattern
influenced by an upper ridge of high pressure. Highs are still
forecast to average in the 60s and Grand Island`s current forecast
high of 65F is within a degree of the record high temperature on
November 23rd. Hastings forecast high of 64F is expected to fall
short of the current 70 degree record high.

Record high temperatures November 23rd:
Grand Island:  66 degrees set in 2011, 2005
Hastings:  70 degrees set in 1923

One of the more noticeable changes in the forecast is on Friday. The
upper ridge axis breaks down as an upper trough translates southeast
from Canada across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region, sending a
cold frontal boundary south across the plains. The frontal passage
is trending faster and have trended temperatures down compared to
blended models, however these readings may not be cold enough
yet. We could see a quick warmup mid morning ahead of the cold
front, with temperatures steadying or falling in the afternoon in
the cold air advection. Post frontal winds will be strong with
gusts over 30 and 40 mph possible if current model trends hold. In
the end, Friday is not looking quite as nice anymore with the
faster cold front timing and high temperatures nearing records are
looking even further out of reach.

The weekend weather remains dry with Saturday the transition day in
between the trough departing to the east and an upper ridge axis
to the west. Sunday and Monday will be the warmer days in the
latter periods under the influence of the upper ridge expanding
east ahead of a trough moving into the Pacific northwest. The
western upper trough and associated cold front cross our region
Tuesday, bringing another round of windy and colder conditions.
The current forecast Tuesday is dry but there are some model
differences on the strength of this next system and details will
be resolved with time.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Thursday)
Issued at 516 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

A SFC trough will move though the TAF sites this evening. The
winds will start off southerly and will gradually become westerly
to northwesterly overnight. The afternoon winds will gust to the
low 20s otherwise a pretty quiet TAF period.




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