Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 010923
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
323 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE IS ALSO NOTED MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS...NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND EVENTUALLY THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES
OUT AT AROUND 80KTS NEAR 25000FT AGL PER 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM
KLBF AND KOAX. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...INCLUDING OUR AREA.
AS A RESULT...BOUNDARY- LAYER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA HAS BECOME
FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN...AND THE SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA SHOULD REMAIN QUASI-ZONAL FOR THE
MOST PART THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A HINT
OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BY SUNRISE MONDAY. AT
THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH CURRENTLY CLEARING OUR AREA SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THUS
ALLOWING FOR MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD
TODAY. THAT SAID...THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT BEFORE
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY.

RADAR DATA FROM KUEX INDICATES ISOLATED SNOW FLURRIES CONTINUE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITHIN AN AXIS OF UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
THERMAL ADVECTION. NOTHING APPRECIABLE WILL RESULT FROM THIS
ACTIVITY...BUT STILL WORTH MENTIONING FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR
A TIME THIS MORNING. THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL KEEP
OUR AREA DRY AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

AN INCREASE IN DIABATIC HEATING FOR SOME PARTS OF THE CWA...WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WORKING IN CONCERT WITH AN INCREASINGLY
DOWN-SLOPING COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD...SHOULD
PROMOTE A WARMER DAY TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. PLAYED
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WHICH PRESENTED HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S
THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP US A TOUCH
WARMER TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING AND AS A
RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A PERIODIC MVFR CEILING.

HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR 15000FT AGL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. OCCASIONAL STRATUS NEAR 2000FT AGL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
THE PROBABILITY OF THIS STRATUS MATERIALIZING IS TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED FROM
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...BRYANT


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