Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 301124
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
624 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

...Two More Opportunities for Rain are Envisioned over the Next 7
Days as This Active Pattern Conts...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Aloft: The Westerlies were fairly amplified with svrl features
looking much more potent now that we`ve fully entered the
transition season of spring. A low was over Ern KS with a
shortwave ridge extending from SD-NM ahead of the next strong
shortwave trof moving onshore in the W. This trof will kick the KS
low to the E while the ridge moves overhead today and tonight. In
the meantime...the upstream trof will dig today...close off over
NV by 00Z...and drop into AZ/UT tonight.

Surface: Occluding 1001 mb low pres was over Ern KS with its
associated warm and cold front well E and S of the FA. High pres
was near Hudson Bay with its SW quarter extending over the Plns.
The next Pac cool front has moved onshore in the Pac NW. The KS
low will slowly depart the rgn today with weak high pres forming
over the Dakota`s. This high will gradually increase its influence
over the FA into tonight...but it will do little to clear the
cloud cover. Meanwhile...the Pac front will cont making its way
thru the Wrn USA.

Today: Cldy to start. There could be a little lgt rain or drzl
well E of Hwy 281 until 15Z...but its back edge will be drifting
E. Most of it will be done by sunrise. The stratus will gradually
lift into stratocu with it partially breaking up W of Hwy 281
this afternoon. E of Hwy 281 should remain cldy all day. Maybe a
few bright spots.

Used SuperBlend for high temps which basically maintains
continuity with the prvs fcst...40s from the Tri-Cities N and
E...and low 50s to the W and S.

N winds will occasionally gust up to 25 kts until noon...E of Hwy
183. Diminishing winds after midday.

Tonight: Any clearing that takes place W of Hwy 281 will be
temporary. Persistent E-NE flow will advect the stratus right back
in. Current expectation is that stratus will dominate...and
should be far enough W of the FA to preclude much fog (although
there could be some 4-6 mi VSBYs).

Used consensus of short-term hi-res models for low temps (mid
30s).


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Forecast challenge includes chances of rain mainly late Friday
night into Saturday night and late Monday night into Wednesday
morning, with thunderstorms possible Tuesday/Tuesday evening.

Kicking off with Friday, I decided to leave fog out of our
western CWA, even though SREF probs indicate that there is a fair
shot at some fog in our west in the morning, but I suspect that
the western edge of stratus will be farther west of the CWA. As an
upper low deepens over the central Rockies, the flow over our
area will be south/southwest in advance of this trough. Warm air
advection will help bring in some showers late Friday night in
advance of the aforementioned wave. There does not appear to be
enough instability for mention of thunder.

The trough of the trough crosses our area on Sunday, and will
essentially cut off our precip chances. The GFS opens up the wave
as it moves over our area, while the ECMWF keeps a closed low
tracking east across the southern plains.

The next wave moves into the plains by Tuesday, and this time,
could give us some thunder as MUCAPES could be above 500 J/Kg.
Still a little unsure about severe weather potential, but with the
passage of a cold front, this would not be out of the question,
considering the possible negative tilt to the wave with an
enclosed low. The associated upper level jet streak may wind up
being too far south to put us in severe potential, so we will have
to stay tuned.

As for temperatures, this looks like a fairly typical scenario
for this time of year, kind of on a bit of a roller coaster, but
not getting too far above or below average. With each of the
aforementioned waves, there will be at least a good chance of more
rain. I did increase wind speeds behind the expected cold front
on Tuesday/Wednesday and went with CONSALL for that.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Friday)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Significant Wx: IFR conds improve to MVFR today then back to IFR
tonight.

Today: IFR stratus CIGs will lift to MVFR stratocu by 18Z...
possibly becoming BKN at EAR late. N winds will cont 15-20G25-30
kts until 18Z then subside to 10-15 kts. Confidence: High

Tonight: MVFR CIGs will decay back down to IFR with lower VSBYs
developing as well late. Lgt NE winds under 10 kts. Confidence:
High

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Kelley


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