Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGID 291136
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
536 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE CWA
CURRENTLY SITTING IN BETWEEN TWO WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES...BUT
WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...NEITHER ARE/WILL BE
BRINGING ANY PRECIP TO THE AREA. THOUGH A TOUCH QUICKER THAN
EXPECTED...A LARGE AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...AN AREA EXTENDING NORTH INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. WINDY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT HELPS TO
KEEP NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SUSTAINED IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH AT TIMES. THE ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER IS HELPING KEEP TEMPS UP...WHICH RANGE AT 3 AM FROM
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LOOKING TO THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF
TODAY/TONIGHT...REALLY OVERALL THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
MADE TO THE FORECAST. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AS THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST OFF TO THE
WEST OF THE CWA. NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR TODAY LIE WITH WIND SPEEDS AND HOW QUICKLY
THIS AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS DISSIPATES/SHIFTS OUT OF THE CWA.
AS FAR AS THE WINDS GO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ON THE
TIGHTER SIDE THIS MORNING...BEFORE RELAXING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS THE RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO SLIDE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS.
EVEN WITH THE RELAXING GRADIENT...EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE
GUSTY SIDE THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. CURRENT 20 TO 30/GUST
40 MPH WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY MIDDAY SUSTAINED TO BE IN THE 15 TO
25 MPH RANGE/GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH...DROPPING TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY THIS
EVENING. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS LINGERING AROUND INTO TONIGHT...THERE
WILL BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BEFORE SWITCHING MORE
TO THE SOUTH AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE FRIDAY. LOOKING AT SKY
COVER...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS STRATUS
AFFECTING ESP THE E/NERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH ROUGHLY
MIDDAY...SO UPPED SKY COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT THAT. ONCE IT DOES
MOVE OUT OF THE CWA...EXPECTING TO SEE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. OBVIOUSLY THIS STRATUS STICKING AROUND LONGER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED COULD AFFECT HIGHS TODAY...BUT AT THIS POINT
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR MAINLY LOWER TO MID 40S. STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...JUST NOT AS MUCH AS THE PAST FEW
DAYS UNFORTUNATELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
NOT A LOT OF CLOUD COVER...ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
TEENS/LOW 20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME. THE MAIN STORYLINE IS THAT WE WILL TRANSITION FROM OUR
RECENT RECORD WARMTH...TO A PATTERN THAT IS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...IT WILL
STILL BE RELATIVELY WARM GIVEN THAT IT IS STILL JANUARY. THE SFC
FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST IN WHAT IS ESSENTIALLY A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REGIME. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE
COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUNSHINE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...WHICH IS STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...THE BROAD CUT OFF LOW OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL HELP TO PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS ELEVATING OUR DEW POINTS AND POSSIBLY SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS AND
00Z ECMWF NEVER REALLY EJECT THIS CUT OFF LOW OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...BUT RATHER SINK IT FURTHER SOUTH YET INTO MEXICO WHERE
IT ESSENTIALLY DIES OUT. CONSEQUENTLY...MOST OF THE FORCING WILL
BE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND HENCE BETTER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS
SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AS FAR NORTH AS
NEBRASKA...BUT THIS LIFT IS RELATIVELY WEAK. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL SWING DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND MAY PROVIDE SOME FORCING TO WORK WITH THE MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...THIS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY NOT REALLY
GET GOING AND TAP THE BEST MOISTURE UNTIL IT IS EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. CONSEQUENTLY...AM NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT OUR
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT IN TIME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE WE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. ALTHOUGH POPS ARE HIGHER ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS (50 TO 70 PERCENT)...ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY
BE LIGHT AND MOST OF ANY SNOW WOULD LIKELY QUICKLY MELT ON CONTACT
GIVEN SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE
STILL A GOOD DISTANCE APART CALLING FOR ANYWHERE FROM NO SNOW TO 3
TO 4 INCHES. WILL CERTAINLY KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL
SYSTEM...BUT AM CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARDS THE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
WORDING WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT TO SEE A SERIES OF CLIPPER
SYSTEMS (MAINLY DRY)...WITH COLD FRONTS SENDING REINFORCING
SHOTS OF COLD AIR FROM CANADA. THE CLIPPERS WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED SO IF WE SEE ANY SNOW...IT SHOULD NOT BE MUCH. SUNDAY
COULD BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE FIRST CLIPPER WHEN
HIGHS MIGHT ONLY REACH THE MID 20S...OVER 40 DEGREES COLDER THAN
YESTERDAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
THEN WEDNESDAY IS A BIG QUESTION MARK WITH WIDELY DIVERGENT
FORECAST MODELS. THE NEXT CLIPPER ACCORDING TO A FEW MODELS MAY
BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR...BUT OUR SUPERBLEND OF MODELS IS
NOT REALLY REFLECTING THIS POSSIBILITY YET. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
THE RECORD WARMTH IS OVER FOR AT LEAST AWHILE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD LIE WITH WINDS AND
CLOUD COVER. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINAL AREAS INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE
LIGHT/VARIABLE LATER THIS EVENING. CURRENT SPEEDS RANGE FROM 25
TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH WILL TAPER OFF INTO THE
15 TO 25 MPH/GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH RANGE AROUND MIDDAY. THE AREA OF
LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS MAKING THE SKY FORECAST TRICKY...AS PATCHES
OF CLEAR SKIES ARE MOVING THROUGH...AND WHAT CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE
ARE VARYING WITHING A FEW HUNDRED FEET OF 3000FT/MVFR CRITERIA.
TRIED TO ADDRESS THIS WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN AS PREVAILING
EVENTUALLY AT BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ADP



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.