Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 030545
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1245 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. I DID
HOWEVER...REMOVE SLIGHT POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THE GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ALBEIT LESS COVERAGE THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN
OF THE GFS...OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS DO NOT. THIS INCLUDES THE
NAM...HRRR...4 KM WRF...NMM AND ARW. OF COURSE...MODELS SUCH AS THE
NAM AND GFS DO INDICATE THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WILL
BE POSITIONED JUST EDGING INTO PORTIONS OF MITCHELL AND JEWELL
COUNTIES...THEREFORE ITS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY A
SHOWER OR TWO MAY OCCUR. BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP
POPS IN THE FORECAST.

OVERALL...THE PLAINS REMAIN SITUATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH NOSING INTO PORTIONS OF TEXAS...OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY TURNING ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BUT
WILL REALLY HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE SHORT TERM. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE LOW...EXPECT
INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOMMODATE FOR STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE FACT THAT
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE WARMER THAN FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE BIGGEST ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCES OF
RAIN.

WE START OFF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND A
CONSIDERABLE LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A COLD FRONT WELL
TO THE NORTHWEST STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHWEST
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL RETREAT SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE NORTHWESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY
BUT MAKES ONLY SLOW HEADWAY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST UNTIL THE
LATE WEEKEND...WHEN IT SWEEPS UP INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE US ABOVE NORMAL
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO LABOR DAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH
PASSAGE/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...MORE NORMAL OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WE HAVE
GENERALLY VERY SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A SERIES OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS. THEN MONDAY BY
MONDAY NIGHT...NORTH OF A POTENTIALLY STALLED BOUNDARY...OUR CHANCES
INCREASE A BIT MORE INTO GENERALLY THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE...BUT
IF THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH IS STRONG ENOUGH...THE FRONT MAY BE
PUSHED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KNOCK THESE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DOWN.
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK EXTREMELY LIMITED...JUDGING BY SEVERE
WEATHER PARAMETERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY REMAINS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH ONLY VARYING DEGREES OF MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER. THERE
IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IN THE GENERAL AREA
OF BOTH TERMINALS MAINLY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE/PLACEMENT IS TOO LOW
TO EVEN JUSTIFY A "VICINITY" MENTION YET.

AS WAS THE CASE 24 HOURS AGO...THE MAIN SHORT-TERM ISSUE IS AGAIN
ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS).
KEEPING THE SAME THEME GOING FROM PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCES...HAVE
MAINTAINED A FORMAL LLWS MENTION FOR THESE FIRST 5 HOURS THIS
MORNING...AS WINDS WITHIN MAINLY THE LOWEST 1000 FT ACCELERATE TO
AROUND 35-40KT FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...CREATING GENERALLY 30-35
KT OF BULK SHEAR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND THIS
LEVEL...WITH THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE FAVORING KGRI VERSUS
KEAR. ONCE AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD LATE THURSDAY
EVENING THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF LLWS...BUT AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS A BIT MARGINAL IN STRENGTH AND WILL LET LATER TAF
ISSUANCES ADDRESS WHETHER IT`S WORTHY OF INCLUSION.

AS FOR SURFACE WIND...IT WILL AGAIN MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS LARGELY
BELOW 12KT THROUGH THE FIRST 12 HOURS AND THEN AVERAGING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 12KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LATTER 12 HOURS...WITH GUST
POTENTIAL UP TO AROUND 22KT PRIMARILY FAVORING THE 17Z-23Z TIME
FRAME...BUT POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO PARTS OF THE LATER EVENING AS
WELL.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH


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