Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 232020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
320 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Satellite and observations show a band of lower clouds across a
small part of the area this afternoon, with some cirrus for the
east. Surface analysis shows a weak cold front situated north to
south through the forecast area. A few showers and some isolated
thunderstorms are developing.

The NAM, HRRR and a couple of the WRF models indicate there could be
a few isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing during the
afternoon. On the other hand, the GFS and RAP are more robust with
the precipitation across the area. The best chance will be in the
eastern half of the forecast area. Can not rule out the
thunderstorms, but the clouds in the east could slow things down a
little this afternoon. Into the evening hours, an upper level wave
moves into the area and models have thunderstorms developing along
the front. By this evening, the front is expected to drift to the
southeast and the best chance of precipitation during the evening
and overnight will be across north central Kansas and far southern
Nebraska. Some of the thunderstorms may linger into Tuesday morning,
but there could be a little bit of a break during the late morning
hours. Another upper level wave moves into the area on Tuesday.
There is still a few differences in the models. The GFS and the NAM
both bring in some precipitation mid day into the afternoon hours,
but the WRF models are more dry during the afternoon. Have kept some
small POPs.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Tuesday night there is a developing surface low and cold front
across western Nebraska and Kansas and another upper level wave
moves into the area. Thunderstorms are expected to develop during
the afternoon on the high plains and should move into the area
during the evening and continue into the overnight hours. This looks
to be the best chance for some thunderstorms. A few of the
thunderstorms will linger into the morning hours Wednesday, but with
another weak wave that moves into the area there is still a chance
for thunderstorms during the afternoon.

Models continue to show a couple of weak upper level waves that move
through the area Wednesday night. There are spotty areas of QPF
across the area and there is a chance for some thunderstorms. By
Thursday afternoon the ECMWF and GFS both have a cold front moving
into the area with the upper low approaching. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop in the vicinity of the front during the
afternoon. The upper low moves into the area Thursday night and
there is another good chance for thunderstorms.

The models have a few differences for Friday and beyond. The GFS is
faster to move the upper low out of the area than the ECMWF, but
there continue to be several upper level waves that move through the
area. Each wave has the potential to bring some thunderstorms, but
it will depend on the timing of the waves and what happens to the
surface front that tends to linger, getting stronger and weaker at
different times. Have kept chances for thunderstorms in through the
period, but it will not be raining all the time. It is just hard to
define just when there will be something going on.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Low clouds have moved into the KGRI terminal this afternoon and
should linger for a few hours. The main questions will be if and
when there will be shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon
and into the overnight hours. Have tried to hit the best times for
activity, but there are still a few questions on exactly when and
where there will be development.


.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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