Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 041517
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1017 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE ERUPTED JUST TO THE W OVER SW NEB DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROF ALONG THE ERN CO BORDER. ELEVATED
CAPE IS BTWN 2000-2500 J/KG. SHEAR IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER IS
25-30 KTS. CAN`T RULE OUT A SVR TSTM. WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR
HAILERS.

STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW AND YOU`RE ALREADY SEEING IT ON RADAR.
NE 10-15 KTS.

WARNING THRESHOLDS FOR HAIL: 50 DBZ TO 31K FT AND 60 DBZ TO 23K
FT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW ACTIVITY ONGOING ON BOTH THE NRN
AND SRN SIDES OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS ARE BEING DRIVEN BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE SLIDING OUT OF SRN CO...AIDED BY AN INCREASED LLJ. TO
THE W/NW...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OVER
PORTIONS OF SRN WY/NRN CO...WHICH WILL BE THE PLAYER BEHIND
WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TO THE
N/NE...CURRENTLY THE CWA IS BARELY OUTSIDE OF A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM WCENTRAL SD INTO NC NEB AND INTO NRN
MO...SET UP ALONG A LINE OF MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE/INCREASED
ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL KEEP SOME POPS GOING EARLY THIS
MORNING...THOUGH MODELS GENERALLY KEEP THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY
IN THE GENERAL VICINITY IT IS NOW...CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE
N/NE GETTING PRECIP. AT THE SFC...MOST OF THE CWA SITS WITH ERLY
WINDS...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM WRN NEB INTO NC KS
AND INTO CENTRAL MO. SOME MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
THIS MORNING NEAR THAT BOUNDARY...SO WILL INSERT A MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON
OBS TO SEE HOW LOW VISIBILITIES ACTUALLY GET...AND WILL ADJUST THE
FORECAST AS NECESSARY.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE PRIMARY CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND THAT
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND ACCOMPANYING SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENDING
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST OUT OF SRN WY/NRN CO. MODELS ARE IN OK
AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT THE ACTIVITY AFFECTING NRN/ERN NEB BEING
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING OR SO...WITH
ATTENTION TURNING MORE TOWARD THE W/SWRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH
TIME AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. THE SFC BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY OVER FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LOOKS TO CREEP
NORTHWARD TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS SOME OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...BUT EVEN WITHIN 6-12 HRS...MODELS STILL HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH JUST HOW FAR NORTH IT ACTUALLY GETS. IT MAY END
UP REMAINING CLOSER TO THE NE/KS STATE LINE...WITH SOME SHOWING IT
PUSHING INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO COME AS WE
APPROACH/PASS THE MIDDAY HOURS...CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BECAUSE MODELS SUGGEST THAT JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE IN THE CWA COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS...EITHER NEAR THE SFC
BOUNDARY AND/OR NEAR THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...HAVE 50 POPS
IN PLACE CWA-WIDE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONCERN FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS...AS MODELS HAVENT CHANGED MUCH SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE AREA LOOKING
AT DEEPER LAYER SHEAR. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
THE BETTER SHEAR VALUES SETTING UP ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SWRN HALF OF
THE CWA /PUSHING 40KTS DEPENDING ON THE MODEL/...FURTHER NORTHEAST
MODEL VALUES STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 20 KTS EARLY ON. THAT SWRN HALF
SITS IN THE SPC DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK AREA...THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SITS IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
DISTURBANCE ITSELF SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE
CONTINUED LIFT AIDED BY AN INCREASED LLJ WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES GOING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A MESSY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BRINGING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO
THE LOCAL AREA. THE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST IS EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...POTENTIALLY BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS AND THENCE DIMINISHING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WHILE
INCREASING TEMPERATURES....BUT PLENTY OF TIME FOR SUBSEQUENT MODEL
RUNS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THIS DRIER PERIOD FATHER OUT INTO THE
FUTURE. IN THE MEANTIME...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR DAILY
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...WITH THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY DEPENDENT ON TIMING/LOCATION OF PASSING
DISTURBANCES.

STARTING OFF WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THE LOCAL AREA TO BE ON THE TAIL
END OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVENTUALLY DIMINISHING FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER...THINK
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY. THIS DRY PERIOD WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST REACHES THE LOCAL AREA. WHILE THERE ARE TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODELS...WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO FORCING TO
INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH MODEST
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES...COULD LEAD TO A FEW ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL...BUT AS OF THIS TIME...THE FORECAST AREA IS NOT OUTLOOKED
FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ON THURSDAY.

THEREAFTER...NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN SCATTERED IN
NATURE...AND NOT ALL AREAS WILL SEE PRECIPITATION ON A DAILY
BASIS. AS HINTED EARLIER...COULD SEE A PATTERN CHANGE LATE IN
THE EXTENDED PERIODS...BUT CONFIDENCE OF THIS IS LOW...AND THINK
IT IS REASONABLE TO EXPECT NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

CERTAINLY NOT A CLEAR-CUT FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS DRAPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA IS BRINGING MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO THE
TERMINALS...KEAR IS MORE SOLIDLY IN THE STRATUS VS KGRI WHICH
APPEARS TO BE MORE ON THE FRINGE OF THE LOWEST CEILINGS. KEAR
ALSO CONTINUES TO SEE VISIBILITIES NEAR 1/2SM AT TIMES...WHICH
COULD LINGER FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. KEPT ANY MENTION OF TS OUT
OF THE TAF FOR THIS MORNING...BUT WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON
THE ACTIVITY ONGOING ACROSS NC NEB INTO ERN NEB. FOR THE MOST PART
IT HAS BEEN DRIFTING E/SE...BUT THERE ARE SOME MODELS THAT SUGGEST
THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR IT TO PUSH FURTHER S THIS MORNING.
BETTER CHANCES FOR TS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO COME THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO
MOVE ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THIS POINT KEPT THE MENTION AS
VCTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACTLY WHERE THINGS WILL DEVELOP.
OUTFLOW FROM ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH IS RESULTING IN A BRIEF SWITCH
TO MORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING...BUT THE PREVAILING
DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE E/SERLY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...ADP


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