Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 232059
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
359 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Another difficult forecast today through Friday. Challenges
included temperatures through the period, precipitation chances
and timing of the various precipitation waves.

The upper low is approaching from the southwest and the surface
low is expected to develop over eastern Colorado and western
Kansas this evening. Currently, skies are clearing from west to
east and temperatures are warming quickly helping to destabilize
the atmosphere. There is and will be a fairly sharp temperature
gradient when it`s all said and done with for today. Tonight,
temperatures will remain fairly mild with breezy south winds and
warm moist advection. Tomorrow, there again could be a sharp
temperature gradient as the cold front impinges on the forecast
area with cooler air in the northwest and temperatures up to the
70s possible in the southeast.

On to precipitation chances and timing.

Tonight: The high resolution guidance continues to indicate the
development of thunderstorms this evening near 00z/7pm across
portions of south central Nebraska and north central Kansas. The
best chances will be west of a Grand Island, NE to Smith Center,
KS line. With plentiful shear and instability, supercells maybe
possible with large hail and damaging winds. Think this primary
threat will subside in the late evening/early overnight hours as
it transitions to more of a stratiform rain chance along the
front. Precipitation is possible across the forecast area
overnight, but again the best chances are off to the west.

Friday: As the upper low moves out over the Central Plains, the
frontogenesis along the cold front will keep precipitation chances
across north central to southwest Nebraska...this will clip
portions of central and south central Nebraska. Guidance today
continues to indicate that the dryslot will cover a good chunk of
the area tomorrow...currently looking like it will stay dry
southeast of a York, NE to Smith Center, KS line for much of the
day. Precipitation chances southeast of this line will be quite a
bit less, but cannot rule it out.

Other things: Did increase southerly winds tonight through
tomorrow across the area as well as those behind the front
tomorrow from the north.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Precipitation should end during the evening and early overnight
hours Friday night with Saturday being dry. Highs on Saturday are
expected to be near normal for late March in the 50s to low 60s.

The next chance for precipitation will follow quickly for Sunday
as the next disturbance moves over the Central Plains. There are
still discrepancies in exactly where the disturbance will track,
thus have precipitation chances in for much of the area for
Sunday afternoon and overnight. As we move through the work week,
there will be another chance for precipitation for mid-week.
Currently the upper flow looks to split with the the main
disturbance being cut off and tracking along the southern CONUS.
There are enough discrepancies that confidence is low on how this
system will evolve. Temperatures through the week look to be
seasonal in the 50s and low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Difficult aviation forecast with multiple rounds of precipitation
possible as well as low ceilings/visibilities that will impact
flight conditions. This morning drizzle and light rain was fairly
widespread causing IFR to LIFR conditions across the area. As of
this issuance, scattered thunderstorms are moving northeast across
the area and may impact the terminals...but currently am thinking
they will remain away, so have left them out of the forecast, so
will need an amendment if they do continue to track that way. This
evening, really think the majority of the precipitation and
thunderstorms will remain west of the area until 4-6z. Then
another lull until towards morning.

Another couple of challenges include, ceilings and low level wind
shear.  Ceilings are expected to improve over the next few hours
and then deteriorate again as the cold front moves in towards
morning. Low level wind shear will be a concern after 00z tonight
and has been included at both terminals between 03-09z.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Billings Wright


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