Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 251948
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
248 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Most of the showers from this morning have moved out of the forecast
area this afternoon. Satellite and observations have low clouds
across the area. Temperatures have been fairly stagnant across the
area.

For the remainder of the afternoon, the models have had some
redevelopment in precipitation during the afternoon. The HRRR
actually has precipitation across the far north already, but the
precipitation is moving out rather than developing. Have lowered
PoPs for this afternoon and may have to lower them some more yet.
With the concern for PoPs this afternoon, that also extends into the
evening hours. Without precipitation developing this afternoon,
there may not be much of any this evening either. The only exception
would be in the Kansas counties later tonight. That area may see
some precipitation from the storms to the south. Models are
consistent in moving precipitation out of the area late tonight and
lingering clouds across the area through the night.

On Wednesday, a surface high pressure ridge moves into the forecast
area. This should bring some sunshine to much of the area during the
day. Temperatures will be warmer on Wednesday, but the east may have
a harder time to warm with less sunshine.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

There are several periods of interest during this period. There is a
frost/freeze potential Wednesday night, potential for precipitation
Thursday through Sunday night, with a couple nights where there
could be a few snowflakes mixed in.

Wednesday night the surface high pressure ridge continues to move
through the area. By Thursday morning, the ridge is centered in the
eastern part of the forecast area. A couple of concerns with this
particular set up. It is fairly safe to say that temperatures will
be quite cold, within a few degrees either side of freezing. The
winds will be light and skies will be mostly clear during the
evening. Then, there becomes a potential problem with the
frost/freeze aspect and even the temperatures could come into
question. Models are starting to bring some clouds into the west.
The GFS even has a little precipitation moving into the west
Thursday morning. The NAM has some warm advection in the west as
well. If that is the case, the temperatures may not be as cold as
forecast, especially in the west.

As the upper level wave moves into the area Thursday, precipitation
will spread across the area. The best chances for precipitation will
be Thursday night into Friday. Friday night into Saturday, the upper
low digs further to the south across the Rockies. There are still a
few waves that come through the area and keep some chances for
precipitation across the area. Friday night into Saturday morning
will be another cool night and there could be a little snow mixed in
with the rain in the far northwest. The low moves into the southern
plains Saturday night and the colder air is pulled into the forecast
area. Temperatures are not very cold, but there is colder air aloft
and there will be some snow mixed in for much of the forecast area
and the far northwest could see some all snow for a time late
Saturday night into Sunday morning. The upper low takes a track
toward the north northeast on Sunday and Sunday night. The chance
for rain continues Sunday and finally comes to an end Sunday
evening.

There will be a quick break from late Sunday night mostly through
Monday night. There may be a few showers Monday afternoon in the far
north, but most of the time should be dry. The next upper level wave
will move in Tuesday and there is a chance for some showers Tuesday
afternoon. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday should rebound back
towards normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Mainly MVFR ceilings are expected this afternoon, but IFR
ceilings are expected tonight. There could be a few showers
around the area.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...JCB


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