Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 180852
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
252 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

An elongated, solid band of rain developed as expected in
association with frontogenetic forcing and a mid/upper level
shortwave trough crossing the Central Plains. So far the
precipitation has fallen as all rain as the thermal profile
remains above freezing and where rain is falling temperatures have
held right around 40 degrees. Based on these warmer temperatures
during the pre-dawn hours, we are just not looking for much if any
snow the remainder of the night. At most we could see a rain/snow
mix on the back edge of the precipitation before it moves out
with essentially no snow accumulation expected.

The area of precipitation is progressing southeast fairly steadily
and the rain is expected to end across the majority of our area by
12Z or shortly thereafter in our far southeast zones. Rainfall
amounts so far have been decent with one to two tenths on average
north of Interstate 80 and rain at KGRI was nearing one half of
an inch.

Once conditions dry out this morning, the remainder of the day will
be marked with steady and gusty post frontal northerly winds.
Model forecast soundings indicate deep mixing through the
afternoon and wind gusts over 30 mph will be common and even
expect some gusts over 40 mph at times.

Wind speeds will decrease tonight and in the cooler and noticeably
drier airmass, low temperatures tonight will be cold compared to
recent nights with lows averaging in the upper teens to the middle
20s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

The upper trough continues to depart to the east on Sunday into the
Ohio valley region, with rising heights and warmer air expanding
east of the Rockies and onto the plains states. Temperatures are
expected to rebound and reach the 50s for highs on Sunday. Have been
monitoring fire weather conditions in our southern zones for a
couple of days now in the dry airmass with low dewpoints and
relative humidity values. Low relative humidity values are still
expected to average in the low 20th percentile across our southern
Kansas counties, and wind gusts are forecast near 20 mph. These
conditions still are at near critical values and are not quite
there for any type of headline and will continue a mention the
near critical fire conditions in the hazardous weather outlook.

Monday remains dry/warm then another trough and cold frontal passage
cools things down for Tuesday. This system quickly departs with
warm air and upper riding expanding back across the interior CONUS
Wednesday and Thanksgiving. The weather is still looking dry for
travelers Wednesday and Thanksgiving and temperatures Thanksgiving
are forecast to be rather mild in the 55 to 65 degree range. The
Friday forecast is also looking dry and mild at this time although
the upper ridge does begin to deamplify by the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Saturday)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

A band of rain showers will cross the terminals during the
overnight hours and a brief mix of rain and snow is possible
before the precipitation ends. North to northwest winds will be
strong and gusty through Saturday in a tight pressure gradient
behind a cold frontal boundary.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fay
LONG TERM...Fay
AVIATION...Fay



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